Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, July 23rd

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies H.Kuroda vs G.Rusch Dodgers -111 +103 10.5 45.96% 10.13/8 49%/9.8 Rockies
Padres vs Reds G.Maddux vs B.Arroyo Reds -130 +122 9.0 51.26% 9.16/14 54%/8.4 Reds
Pirates vs Astros I.Snell vs B.Moehler Astros -128 +120 9.5 58.32% 9.14/15 60%/10.2 Pirates
A's vs Rays G.Smith vs J.Shields Rays -170 +162 7.5 58.09% 8.14/7 64%/8.1 Rays
Twins vs Yankees G.Perkins vs M.Mussina Yankees -149 +141 9.5 62.01% 9.12/6 61%/8.8 Yankees
Rangers vs White Sox K.Millwood vs C.Richard White Sox -113 +105 10.0 51.63% 11.35/18 57%/11.2 White Sox
Tigers vs Royals A.Galarraga vs Z.Greinke Royals -105 -103 9.5 54.48% 9.56/8 48%/10.1 Tigers
Indians vs Angels A.Laffey vs J.Lackey Angels -160 +152 8.0 60.57% 8.62/25 65%/9.1 Angels
Red Sox vs Mariners C.Buchholz vs F.Hernandez Mariners -124 +116 8.5 48.65% 8.42/9 60%/9.4 Red Sox
Phillies vs Mets B.Myers vs J.Maine Mets -125 +117 9.0 56.49% 8.81/9 59%/9.6 Mets
Braves vs Marlins T.Hudson vs R.Nolasco Braves -122 +114 8.5 46.08% 8.87/13 50%/8.0 Braves
Brewers vs Cardinals C.Sabathia vs B.Looper Brewers -134 +126 8.5 50.15% 8.34/3 54%/9.5 Brewers
Cubs vs DBacks T.Lilly vs D.Davis Cubs -108 +100 9.0 48.07% 9.80/16 52%/9.6 Cubs
Nationals vs Giants C.Balester vs K.Correia Giants -121 +113 8.5 60.25% 7.75/10 54%/9.3 Giants
Blue Jays vs Orioles A.Burnett vs J.Guthrie Orioles -108 +100 8.0 52.77% 9.19/6 56%/9.4 Blue Jays
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2106 -$342 $8027 60.54%
AccuScore $1868 -$747 $9953 99.06%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. I won't be posting all the bets made as that takes up too much of my time. I will only be posting how much money in total bets I am making for the day (ahead of time). I started each method with $5,000 units. At this time I bumped up the bankroll of AccuScore method to $6k due to their recent winnings.
Today's Bets (Simulator): Col($235), SD($168), Hou($124), Oak($151), NYY($135), KC($167), Bos($235), Fla($337), Stl($251), SF($303)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): Col($102), Hou($263), CWS($252), LAA($270), Sea($311), NYM($232), Fla($184), Bal($254)

5 comments:

HoodedMafia said...

I found your blog from your simulation posts on Dodger Thoughts. After searching through your simulations, I was wondering what you use as criteria for picking which games to "bet" on? Or do you just "bet" on all games?

Webmeister said...

Each blog post has a link to something called the "Kelly System Calculator". You compare the simulator output to the Vegas odds and determine which team the simulator gives you the edge on. Then you enter the simulator win% and Vegas odds of the team you have the edge on, into the Kelly Calculator. The Kelly Calculator then tells you if you should bet on this game and if so how much. You can give it a minimum threshold of bet value X and the calculator determines if your edge is big enough to make a bet worthwhile. Hope that answered your question. Thanks for the comment.
vr, Xeifrank

HoodedMafia said...

Thank you for the timely response. Your comment was very helpful in understanding how you use the simulators in parallel with the Kelly Calculator. One last question, you mention in your posts, that you determine the "betting amount" the day before. Where do you come up with this number? Is it a percentage of you bankroll? Thanks.

HoodedMafia said...

You can ignore the previous comment. I figured out what you did. The total betting amount for the day is the total of each game together. When I first read your post, I thought it was a predetermined amount. Again, thank you for your response and running this blog. I am a first time visitor, but I find it very interesting. Thank you and keep up the good work.

Webmeister said...

HM, I started each system with $5K and went from there. I am new to using the Kelly System and probably risked too much the first couple of days using it. I have now capped my max bet to 7.5% of bankroll as to avoid ruin. Feel free to ask a question again in the future.
vr, Xeifrank