Wednesday, December 31, 2014

2015 Angels Best Lineup (vs LHP)

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After looking at the Angels best lineup vs RHP, I am now going to use my simulator to take a look at the best lineup vs LHP. The only change to the starting nine is that I will remove Matt Joyce at DH with the right handed hitting C.J. Cron. My simulator plays actual games and takes pretty much everything (meaningful) into account. This is only an exercise and I am not in any way advocating that the Angels should use these top ranked lineups. I am listing the top five ranked lineups vs LHP along with tables that used the Top 100 lineups to show trends of most common lineup patterns.

Most Optimal Lineups vs LHP
Freese-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Calhoun-Cron-Rutledge-Iannetta-Hamilton
Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Freese-Aybar-Hamilton-Cron-Rutledge-Iannetta
Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Cron-Hamilton-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Calhoun
Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Cron-Hamilton-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese-Rutledge
Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Cron-Iannetta-Hamilton-Freese-Aybar-Rutledge
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    Batting Order Location Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Trout47364490000
Calhoun1331150136778
Pujols810304390000
Freese129121781110129
Cron53122310715178
Hamilton321213141617716
Aybar129150121781512
Rutledge00001325231821
Iannetta00001218202426
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Most Common First Two Paired Batters In Lineup
1st2ndCount
TroutCalhoun24
FreeseTrout10
AybarTrout9
TroutFreese8
CalhounTrout8
TroutPujols7
TroutAybar5
PujolsTrout5
CalhounAybar3
AybarCalhoun3
FreeseCalhoun2
PujolsCron2
CronTrout2
CronPujols2
HamiltonTrout2
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Most Common First Three Consecutive Batters In Lineup
1st2nd3rdCount
TroutCalhounPujols13
AybarTroutCalhoun5
TroutCalhounFreese4
TroutCalhounAybar4
FreeseTroutAybar4
TroutCalhounCron3
FreeseTroutHamilton3
CalhounTroutPujols3
TroutPujolsCalhoun3
PujolsTroutCalhoun3
AybarTroutPujols2
TroutFreeseCalhoun2
TroutFreesePujols2
TroutFreeseCron2
TroutFreeseHamilton2
CalhounTroutAybar2
CalhounTroutFreese2
TroutPujolsFreese2
TroutAybarPujols2
PujolsTroutHamilton2
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Most Common 3-4-5 Batters In Lineup
3rd4th5thCount
PujolsFreeseAybar4
PujolsCronHamilton3
AybarPujolsCron3
CalhounPujolsCron3
CalhounPujolsRutledge3
CalhounCronHamilton3
FreesePujolsCron3
CronPujolsCalhoun3
PujolsHamiltonFreese2
PujolsHamiltonIannetta2
PujolsFreeseIannetta2
PujolsCronRutledge2
PujolsCronIannetta2
PujolsCronFreese2
AybarPujolsFreese2
AybarPujolsCalhoun2
AybarPujolsTrout2
CalhounPujolsHamilton2
FreesePujolsHamilton2
CronPujolsHamilton2
HamiltonPujolsCalhoun2
HamiltonPujolsAybar2
AybarCronPujols2
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Note: All table counts are out of Top 100 most optimal lineups.
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Saturday, December 27, 2014

2015 Angels Best Lineup (vs RHP)


Now I move on to the best lineups for the Angels.  I am using my simulator to see what batting order it thinks gives the Angels the best chance of winning.  Methodology: Go through each possible lineup given the nine most likely starters as listed by MLB Depth Charts website and have the simulator play tens of thousands of games using each lineup against a fictitious but static opponent and see which Angels lineup wins the most games. Now keep in mind there are nine factorial (or 362,880) possible lineups. My simulator is fast, but it is not fast enough to look at all possible lineups while simulating a high enough sample size of games to get a reliable result. So what I did was put in a few limitations, like not allowing a lineup that had Mike Trout batting 8th or 9th and not allowing a lineup that had Albert Pujols batting 8th or 9th and not allowing lineups that had left handed hitters hitting back to back (unless they were paired batting 9th and 1st). This cut down on the possible number of lineups but still gave me too many lineups. So I then took a random sample of 10,000 lineups that met the filter I was using. So there still may be a few good lineups out there but of those 10,000 lineups here are what the simulator calculated to be the best 50. Keep in mind that the simulator is using 2015 Steamer Projections. The simulator plays actual baseball games and takes pretty much everything you can think of (that is meaningful) into account. The results are sorted by wins per 162 games behind the top ranking lineup.

12/28 Edit: @Tangotiger has asked to see how the worst lineup and the reverse of the best lineup do on this chart so they will be added to the bottom of the table.

                                                   Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Calhoun-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Rutledge-Aybar-Iannetta0
2Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton0.032
3Trout-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge0.146
4Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese0.152
5Joyce-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta0.156
6Aybar-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta0.166
7Calhoun-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Hamilton0.192
8Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta0.194
9Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese0.203
10Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Calhoun-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese0.246
11Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce0.277
12Joyce-Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Iannetta-Hamilton-Rutledge-Aybar-Freese0.287
13Trout-Pujols-Freese-Hamilton-Iannetta-Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge0.327
14Trout-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton0.334
15Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Aybar-Hamilton-Iannetta-Rutledge-Freese-Joyce0.341
16Hamilton-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Aybar-Iannetta-Freese0.347
17Hamilton-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese-Aybar-Iannetta0.381
18Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Iannetta-Rutledge-Aybar-Joyce0.411
19Calhoun-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce0.417
20Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese-Aybar-Hamilton0.420
21Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Hamilton0.452
22Trout-Calhoun-Aybar-Pujols-Rutledge-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Joyce0.456
23Trout-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese0.468
24Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Rutledge-Calhoun-Freese0.478
25Pujols-Trout-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta-Rutledge-Joyce0.48
26Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Aybar0.481
27Joyce-Trout-Freese-Pujols-Hamilton-Aybar-Rutledge-Calhoun-Iannetta0.482
28Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge0.485
29Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Calhoun-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Hamilton0.491
30Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Calhoun-Aybar-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese0.492
31Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Aybar-Joyce0.512
32Calhoun-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Hamilton0.522
33Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Calhoun-Freese-Aybar0.526
34Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Hamilton-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Aybar0.529
35Joyce-Pujols-Freese-Calhoun-Trout-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar0.535
36Calhoun-Trout-Freese-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Rutledge-Hamilton0.542
37Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar0.544
38Freese-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Iannetta-Rutledge-Hamilton0.545
39Trout-Iannetta-Hamilton-Pujols-Rutledge-Calhoun-Aybar-Freese-Joyce0.548
40Freese-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Calhoun-Iannetta-Rutledge-Aybar0.553
41Calhoun-Freese-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar0.569
42Calhoun-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Iannetta-Freese-Joyce-Rutledge-Aybar0.581
43Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese0.588
44Iannetta-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Freese0.612
45Trout-Joyce-Freese-Pujols-Rutledge-Calhoun-Aybar-Iannetta-Hamilton0.643
46Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge0.644
47Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Aybar-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton0.662
48Calhoun-Trout-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese0.675
49Trout-Freese-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge0.680
50Calhoun-Rutledge-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Freese-Trout-Aybar-Iannetta0.689
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ReverseIannetta-Aybar-Rutledge-Freese-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun1.771
WorstIannetta-Freese-Aybar-Rutledge-Calhoun-Hamilton-Pujols-Trout-Joyce2.033
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Analysis:  The first thing that sticks out to me is that the simulator does not like Mike Trout hitting 3rd or 4th for some reason.  It seems to only like him hitting 2nd, 1st or 5th.  It could be that it likes Mike Trout on base for when Albert Pujols and or Josh Hamilton coming up to bat.  And there are three players (Matt Joyce, Erick Aybar and David Freese) who get at least one listing at each spot in the batting order and Kole Calhoun slots into 8 different spots.   Pujols bats 3rd or 4th in 44 out of 50 scenarios and Trout bats 1st or 2nd in 39 out of 50.  Calhoun and Joyce are the next two hitters that you see at the top of the lineup frequently.  And at the bottom of the order you Iannetta, Freese, Rutledge and Aybar the most.
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            Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Calhoun1265379260
Joyce1153864418
Trout172200100100
Pujols13212320000
Hamilton411011760011
Aybar2664545108
Freese22511881211
Rutledge04007101595
Iannetta11005915127
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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs LHP) Part II

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I am looking at best lineup vs LHP again for the Dodgers using my simulator.  This time i substituted out Carl Crawford for Scott Van Slyke and substituted Joc Pederson out for Chris Heisey for platoon advantages purposes.  There are a few surprises here, mainly so many highly ranked permutations liking Van Slyke hitting leadoff.  Van Slyke mashes left handed pitching with both a high OBP and SLG with average speed at best.  So this is not a result you would see using traditional lineup building methods.  Of course very little logic and analytical thinking is put into the traditional methods as you tend to see a lot of inertial reasoning behind the arguments of where prototypical hitters should bat in the lineup.  So with no further ado, here are the Top 50 lineups vs LHP with the listed substitutions above along with a list of how many times each of the 8 hitters appears in each lineup spot.

Previous best lineup posts
Best Lineup vs RHP | Best Lineup vs LHP, Part 1

                                                      Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Van Slyke-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0
2Van Slyke-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.012
3Van Slyke-Puig-Heisey-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.022
4Van Slyke-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.059
5Van Slyke-Heisey-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.066
6Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.086
7Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.087
8Van Slyke-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.145
9Rollins-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.163
10Van Slyke-Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.213
11Van Slyke-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.230
12Rollins-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Van Slyke-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.239
13Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.243
14Puig-Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.252
15Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.288
16Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.289
17Van Slyke-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.291
18Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.308
19Van Slyke-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.315
20Rollins-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.315
21Uribe-Van Slyke-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Heisey-Pitcher0.315
22Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Kendrick-Heisey-Pitcher0.321
23Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Heisey-Kendrick-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.323
24Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Van Slyke-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.340
25Puig-Gonzalez-Van Slyke-Kendrick-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.371
26Van Slyke-Rollins-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.382
27Puig-Kendrick-Heisey-Gonzalez-Rollins-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.399
28Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.401
29Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Heisey-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.408
30Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.427
31Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.460
32Puig-Kendrick-Heisey-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Van Slyke-Grandal-Pitcher0.468
33Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Heisey-Puig-Uribe-Van Slyke-Grandal-Pitcher0.475
34Van Slyke-Heisey-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.492
35Rollins-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.500
36Rollins-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.500
37Uribe-Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.514
38Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.514
39Rollins-Van Slyke-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.541
40Van Slyke-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.548
41Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.555
42Heisey-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.586
43Kendrick-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Grandal-Van Slyke-Heisey-Pitcher0.596
44Rollins-Gonzalez-Heisey-Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.626
45Uribe-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Van Slyke-Heisey-Pitcher0.630
46Van Slyke-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Heisey-Kendrick-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.643
47Puig-Van Slyke-Grandal-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.721
48Kendrick-Rollins-Van Slyke-Puig-Gonzalez-Heisey-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.744
49Puig-Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Uribe-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher0.749
50Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher1.035
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              Count By Lineup Spot
Player1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th
Van Slyke18125001140
Puig13141913000
Gonzalez0515255000
Kendrick658119920
Rollins997016720
Uribe335009219
Heisey1251451121
Grandal0044391020
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Note: Each game/lineup simulated 100K times.
and Wins/162 is the number of wins you give up over a 162 game season by using the listed lineup vs the most efficient one (per the simulator).
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Saturday, December 20, 2014

2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs LHP)


Now I take a look at the Dodgers best lineup(s) vs left handed pitchers. I used the same 8 starters as I did when I looked at best lineups vs RHP. I may do this again putting some right handed bats in for a few of the left handed hitters. You may notice that the best lineup vs RHP is ranked 9th vs LHP.

Previous Post: 2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs RHP)

                                                  Top 100 Batting Orders
RankLineupWins Behind
1Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.000
2Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.136
3Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.471
4Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.473
5Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.531
6Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.549
7Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.661
8Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Uribe-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.667
9Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.675
10Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.689
11Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.692
12Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.724
13Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.739
14Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.763
15Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher0.765
16Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.771
17Pederson-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.792
18Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.799
19Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.804
20Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher0.816
21Uribe-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher0.820
22Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.825
23Crawford-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.826
24Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.834
25Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.834
26Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.844
27Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.847
28Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.859
29Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.878
30Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.880
31Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.891
32Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher0.897
33Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.910
34Rollins-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.936
35Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher0.940
36Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.943
37Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.944
38Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.944
39Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher0.944
40Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.957
41Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher0.969
42Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.972
43Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.978
44Crawford-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.988
45Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.991
46Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.995
47Crawford-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.995
48Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.996
49Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.009
50Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.009
51Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher1.014
52Pederson-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.027
53Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.043
54Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.048
55Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher1.055
56Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.055
57Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.077
58Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.092
59Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.100
60Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher1.106
61Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.124
62Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.129
63Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.144
64Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.149
65Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.150
66Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.165
67Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.166
68Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.166
69Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.171
70Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.173
71Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.183
72Pederson-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher1.189
73Kendrick-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Pitcher1.199
74Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.202
75Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.210
76Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher1.212
77Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.213
78Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.215
79Kendrick-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.223
80Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.225
81Rollins-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pederson-Pitcher1.226
82Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher1.231
83Crawford-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.256
84Pederson-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.257
85Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.259
86Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.272
87Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.273
88Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher1.275
89Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.278
90Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher1.288
91Puig-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Pitcher1.288
92Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.296
93Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher1.309
94Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.317
95Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher1.332
96Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.341
97Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.348
98Crawford-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.354
99Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Grandal-Crawford-Pitcher1.367
100Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.377
.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs RHP)


The Dodgers have made quite a few changes to their roster this month and I figured it would be a good idea to run the currently projected starters through my simulator to see which lineups it thought were the best.  First off, I looked at the best lineup vs RHP.  After a few iteration it became obvious that the lineups the simulator liked the most had the threesome of Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal hitting somewhere in the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup.  So in this exercise I took all the possible lineups with those three hitting in the 3-4-5 spots in any order with the added caveat of not allowing any left handed hitters to hit back to back (170 total permutations).  For input, I used 2015 Steamer projections.  I simulated each game 100,000 times.  While yes, there is a margin of error but you will definitely see what the simulator feels is the best lineups grouped near the top.  If you aren't familiar with it, my simulator simulates actual baseball games and takes pretty much everything you can imagine into account.  Keep in mind this is just an exercise and I am not advocating using these top lineups nor am I expecting the team to do so.  But I do believe that lineup construction is something that teams should worry about a little bit more as over the course of the season an NL team could easily add another win or two to their total.  As a side note, the lineup that MLB Depth Charts lists as the most likely lineup ranks #42.


                                                           Best Lineups
RankLineupWins Behind
1Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.00
2Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.33
3Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.40
4Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.43
5Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.44
6Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher0.48
7Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.52
8Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.58
9Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher0.63
10Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.66
11Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.67
12Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.68
13Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.70
14Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.81
15Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.83
16Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher0.83
17Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.85
18Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.91
19Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher0.91
20Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.92
21Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.92
22Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher0.93
23Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.94
24Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.95
25Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.98
26Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher0.99
27Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.03
28Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.05
29Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher1.05
30Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher1.06
31Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.15
32Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.19
33Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.21
34Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.23
35Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.26
36Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.29
37Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.30
38Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.32
39Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.34
40Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.42
41Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.45
42Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.47
43Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.47
44Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher1.49
45Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.49
46Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.56
47Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.57
48Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.58
49Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.58
50Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher1.58
51Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.60
52Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.60
53Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.65
54Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.65
55Uribe-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher1.72
56Pederson-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.72
57Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.72
58Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.72
59Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.74
60Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher1.74
61Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.77
62Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.78
63Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.78
64Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.78
65Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.79
66Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.79
67Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.80
68Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.80
69Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.80
70Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher1.81
71Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.81
72Uribe-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.82
73Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Pitcher1.84
74Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Pitcher1.85
75Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.86
76Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.87
77Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.87
78Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.91
79Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.94
80Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.94
81Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.95
82Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.95
83Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.96
84Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puit-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.99
85Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.01
86Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.03
87Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher2.05
88Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.06
89Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.07
90Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher2.09
91Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.10
92Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.11
93Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.11
94Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.14
95Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.14
96Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.14
97Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.14
98Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Pitcher2.15
99Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.16
100Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.17
101Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.20
102Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.23
103Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher2.23
104Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.24
105Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.24
106Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.28
107Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.29
108Kendrick-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.32
109Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher2.33
110Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.33
111Uribe-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.34
112Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.35
113Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.35
114Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.35
115Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.36
116Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher2.37
117Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.39
118Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher2.40
119Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.42
120Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.43
121Kendrick-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.47
122Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.47
123Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.49
124Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.49
125Uribe-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.50
126Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.52
127Kendrick-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.52
128Rollins-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.53
129Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.53
130Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.56
131Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.57
132Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.60
133Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.63
134Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.63
135Uribe-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.64
136Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.66
137Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.67
138Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.69
139Uribe-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.70
140Rollins-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.70
141Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.71
142Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.71
143Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.73
144Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.76
145Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.77
146Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.77
147Pederson-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.78
148Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.79
149Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.79
150Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.79
151Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.80
152Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.83
153Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.86
154Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.90
155Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.94
156Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.94
157Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.96
158Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.00
159Kendrick-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.00
160Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.01
161Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher3.03
162Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.04
163Kendrick-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher3.05
164Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.12
165Pederson-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher3.12
166Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher3.16
167Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher3.21
168Kendrick-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.31
169Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.32
170Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.44

Friday, October 10, 2014

Giants vs Cardinals - NLCS Game 1 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsCardinalsMadison BumgarnerAdam WainwrightCardinals3.233.3153.976.54

                                        Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsCardinalsOccurences                   RankGiantsCardinalsOccurences
1125198451075049
2235032052754734
3343724653474615
4213558754704435
5323454155824376
6013227156184193
7132921557764147
8312549358284038
9432518459814010
10022377660833931
11102360961573809
12242346662383513
13452270463843331
14422199064083204
15142159965802960
16202112966922800
17032018467482727
18411793168852682
19301646569782668
20041586570932550
21531563071192523
22251562972912518
23541531773292498
24151500774862225
25521492275582223
26351487276392169
27511301477942044
28401278578092016
29561240079901902
30051119680871814
316210140811021755
32261012682681728
3316996383491639
34639545841011635
3550920785951633
36369180862101542
37649084871101521
38618977881031498
39658413891041292
40467885903101269
4106776291591249
4217655792961221
43606550931001151
44726505940101148
4527629795891096
46736227961121046
47716142974101022
4867592498113988
493754689969985
50745384100105961
.
Note: Based off of 1 millions games simulated.
.

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 4 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersCardinalsClayton KershawShelby MillerDodgers3.922.7660.786.67


                                      Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1124414851055338
2234149052915095
3213862053754955
4323510754904731
5313149255924540
6343038156844019
7203019457274011
8102911258763885
9012810359373815
10302634860473596
11422534961933529
12412530462173481
13432442063063451
144021859641013286
15131945065853126
165119022661003098
17521884967573041
184518836681023019
19501739469942646
20241685770282496
21021666571782481
22531653472862383
235414567731032359
24611436574382322
25141352575182280
26621343776072261
276013409771112134
28631154278482015
290311246791102008
30351103480951972
312510801811121914
32561072082581872
33711054383871855
34709854841041703
3572967285291646
36649468861131553
3715882587391546
3865805588681449
3904786989961435
4073772990081426
41817302911211408
4280685392191396
4336684493491293
44826740941221289
45266625951201274
46746286961141210
47466189971051194
4816569898891134
4983539799591027
50675359100971018

Note 1 Million games simulated.
.

Monday, October 06, 2014

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 3 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total runs
DodgersCardinalsHyun-Jin RyuJohn LackeyDodgers4.193.4955.467.68

                                           Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1233882051836124
2123376552276086
3343326853056039
4323161754376034
5212881055475888
6432566056845319
7312517557575116
8422410958175106
9452384359804806
10412033160924778
11131901261854552
12241876862914522
13521829163784397
14531822564934183
15201802965064139
16541771666384125
17011704167284077
18301649268863729
19101636969483644
20511588470943557
21561507571183431
22141484072903281
23351415073873256
24401381874583254
252513560751023213
26631317876072988
276213141771012982
280212817781032861
29611212979682841
30641197880952827
31501139481292720
32651101782392704
330310364831042451
34151014884962374
3572987285492336
36369756861002267
3726913087192175
38739129881122070
3971911689892067
40609003901112027
4146892191081987
42678511921131876
43748319931051872
4404803294591863
4516735095971842
46757211962101802
47826870973101752
4870678898691752
49816642994101545
507662131001141544


Note: Based off of 1 million games simulated.
.

Friday, October 03, 2014

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLDS Game 2 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
CardinalsDodgersLance LynnZach GreinkeDodgers3.104.0363.25727.13


                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurrencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurrences
1234879851725686
2124613052745527
3343832053385360
4132909154085169
5012819455574980
6322662956754946
7212601357714623
8452584858764591
9242511159294503
10022396960194497
11142386261484250
12032208562604102
13432129763783833
14251951464833749
15311922065393733
16421854866093656
17041795067823631
18151755468583470
19351682169843444
205615098701103040
21101460671813005
225414223722102977
23411406673852967
24051403674492894
25531372175702691
26161292876862547
272012866770102459
282612832783102456
29521274579682456
30361211480932340
31061041281922240
32301024882942132
33511000083872127
3446960084592070
35279234851111945
36179133862111934
3763895987911862
38648693884101833
3962850289801802
4065833790951783
4137800091891694
42407863923111646
43677794930111591
4407760394691572
4561697695961471
46476924961031402
47186602971021352
48286319981121337
49505856995101305
507357491002121255

Chances of each team scoring X number of runs
Runs ScoredCardinalsDodgers
013.99%6.28%
117.27%11.66%
217.33%15.12%
314.72%15.90%
411.62%14.22%
58.57%11.43%
65.98%8.36%
74.04%5.85%
82.61%3.95%
91.62%2.65%
100.96%1.72%

Note: Based on 1 million games simulated

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLDS Game 1 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
CardinalsDodgersAdam WainwrightClayton KershawDodgers1.973.2769.7135.24


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurences
1013671151601531
2123655552471526
30227147530101353
4232624754721344
5032257855711331
6131991456381306
7211933357671306
8041689158731275
9101622559291201
103414714601101091
11141471161741071
1232136766257957
1305123086375903
14241169164011900
1520109946570897
1631107886648863
171596916739828
1806850268210769
194379796976744
202579007082740
214277917181722
224572347283709
2330666473111650
241666127484576
254165197558542
263555157649541
2707538177310517
282649767885507
2953423779211491
3040418580012457
315241538178454
321740748280430
335438258392409
3451381384112396
353637248591366
360834948686360
372731978793352
3856319488311349
391826868968336
4050248990410322
416224239159302
424624199287301
4363234493212293
446122679494293
4509215695013285
463721319690264
472820219795241
4864201698102224
496518199969218
50191718100411212

Note: Based off of 500,000 games simulated.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/15



AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSFave Win%Total RS
BrewersDodgersJimmy NelsonZach GreinkeDodgers2.9983.53359.25%6.531


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankBrewersDodgersOccurrencesRankBrewersDodgersOccurrences
12353145147510
21252475260496
33439255318491
42133775471486
53233325575436
61332665608428
70131865757421
82426905882386
90225065938383
101424626083367
114324206176362
120323816229356
134523466319350
143123296470322
154220746581311
161019186684303
172518936709275
180418026839274
194117556948248
202017407085248
213517157158242
221516507278233
235314967392224
245414957480214
2530143975110210
2652137976210209
270512037749208
285111767891207
292611637993185
3016113180310183
3156112581010176
323610718286176
33409848368162
34469098494159
35639038587153
366289086410137
37068148795136
386481488211135
392779289111131
40617699059130
41177679190126
426574392102120
435071193103117
440759394311116
453759295101112
467258796104106
47735509769103
48675419896102
4928524998994
507451810021288
.
Miscellaneous Notes:

1) The best defensive players on the Brewers are CF-Carlos Gomez, SS-Jean Segura and C-Jonathon Lucroy

2) Brewers 2B-Scooter Gennett can not hit left-handed pitching to save his life.  Rickie Weeks will hit for him if a LHP comes in to face him.

3) The Brewers have three former starting pitchers in their bullpen... Zach Duke (169 GS), Tom Gorzelanny (121 GS) and Marco Estrada (71 GS).

4) The Brewers have three holes in their bullpen... Marco Estrada, Jeremy Jeffress and Brandon Kintzler.

5) Brewers hitters do not draw very many walks... Lucroy and Reynolds are the only two who draw an average amount of walks.

6) Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson is probably better than projection systems currently give him credit for.



Sunday, July 13, 2014

Masahiro Tanaka At The All-Star Break


Here is a list of the Vegas odds of all 18 of Masahiro Tanaka's starts up to the All-Star break.

DateAwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveML FaveML DogTanaka Win%
4/4/2014NYATORMasahiro TanakaDerek McGowanNYA-12612155.26
4/9/2014BALNYAMiguel GonzalezMasahiro TanakaNYA-17516863.17
4/16/2014CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20018565.81
4/22/2014NYABOSMasahiro TanakaJon LesterBOS-11610647.39
4/27/2014LAANYAGarrett RichardsMasahiro TanakaNYA-15915461.01
5/3/2014TBNYAJake OdorizziMasahiro TanakaNYA-19518765.64
5/9/2014NYAMILMasahiro TanakaYovani GallardoNYA-12912455.85
5/14/2014NYANYNMasahiro TanakaRaul MonteroNYA-16515961.83
5/20/2014NYACHNMasahiro TanakaJason HammelNYA-15815360.86
5/25/2014NYACHAMasahiro TanakaAndre RienzoNYA-16415861.69
5/31/2014MINNYAKevin CorreiaMasahiro TanakaNYA-24823870.85
6/5/2014OAKNYADrew PomeranzMasahiro TanakaNYA-13712756.90
6/11/2014NYASEAMasahiro TanakaChris YoungNYA-18517564.29
6/17/2014TORNYAMarcus StromanMasahiro TanakaNYA-16716062.05
6/22/2014BALNYAChris TillmanMasahiro TanakaNYA-20219266.33
6/28/2014BOSNYAJon LesterMasahiro TanakaNYA-15014559.60
7/3/2014NYAMINMasahiro TanakaPhil HughesNYA-15014559.60
7/8/2014NYACLEMasahiro TanakaTrevor BauerNYA-14714259.10
.
.