Monday, August 31, 2009

Trader Ned's


September 1st, Meaningful NL West Games


Dodgers acquire Jim Thome and Jon Garland.

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
DBacks Dodgers Y.Petit vs V.Padilla Dodgers 65.64% 9.0 61.61% 9.17 LAN 4-3
Giants Phillies J.Sanchez vs C.Hamels Phillies 64.41% 8.3 60.59% 9.03 PHI 1-0
Mets Rockies M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 66.78% 9.5 65.41% 8.66 COL 8-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Baby Got Diamond Back


August 31st, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
DBacks Dodgers D.Davis vs R.Wolf Dodgers 63.24% 7.9 63.93% 8.48 ARI 5-3


Vegas Odds

Living On The Air In Cincinnati


August 30th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Kershaw vs B.Arroyo Dodgers 62.12% 8.1 62.28% 9.05 LAN 3-2
Rockies Giants J.Hammel vs M.Cain Giants 55.56% 7.6 48.26% 8.27 SF 9-5


Vegas Odds

Friday, August 28, 2009

Knuckle Sandwich


August 29th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Haeger vs M.Maloney Dodgers 59.68% 9.0 55.83% 9.90 11-4
Rockies Giants J.Marquis vs B.Zito Rockies 53.92% 7.7 48.99% 8.53 5-3


Vegas Odds

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Big Favorites In Cincy


August 28th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey Dodgers 65.64% 8.8 65.52% 9.15 CIN 4-2
Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum Giants 56.52% 6.5 55.28% 6.86 SF 2-0


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Back In The Saddle Again


August 27th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Rockies V.Padilla vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 57.98% 10.1 57.70% 10.00 LAN 3-2
DBacks Giants Y.Petit vs J.Martinez Giants 56.33% 8.5 57.27% 9.01 ARI 11-0


Vegas Odds

It's Not The End of the World As We Know It


and I feel fine! Yes, the Dodgers lost a tough extra inning game last night in the opening salvo vs the Roxies. The Roxies have cut the Dodgers lead in the NL West, which happens to be the smallest lead of any in the 6 MLB divisions, to just two games. All is not lost though, because there exists this mulligan on a season called the wild-card.

Yes, the Dodgers lead is down to two games, but their lead in the wild-card is six games, and it's over the Giants, not a team like the "red hot" Roxies. As I pointed out on a post over at Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers still have a great chance of making the playoffs. For the most part the playoffs are a crapshoot. All four teams should be pretty even for the most part, with home field advantage being the biggest seperator between the teams.

According to the site Sports Club Stats which is on the side-bar. The Dodgers break even point (50% chance of making the playoffs) is somewhere between 89 and 90 wins. A 16-20 record the rest of the way out would give the Dodgers a 90 win season.

Here are the breakdowns. Total wins, probability of making the playoffs.

< 85 ... 0%
85 ... 1%
86 ... 3%
87 ... 11%
88 ... 24%
89 ... 45%
90 ... 66%
91 ... 83%
92 ... 94% (.500 ball the rest of the season)
93 ... 98%
>93 ... 100%

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Regressing To The Mean


August 26th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Rockies R.Wolf vs J.Fogg Dodgers 56.52% 10.5 51.10% 10.25 LAN 6-1
DBacks Giants D.Davis vs J.Sanchez Giants 57.98% 7.5 60.60% 7.85 TBD


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 24, 2009

Tuesday is Toss-up Day


August 25th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Rockies C.Kershaw vs J.Hammel Dodgers 51.69% 9.4 50.04% 9.19 COL 5-4
DBacks Giants D.Haren vs M.Cain Giants 57.98% 6.6 51.01% 7.32 SF 5-4


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Denver Bound


August 24th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Rockies B.Zito vs J.Marquis Rockies 62.12% 9.4 59.83% 9.98 COL 6-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Breathing Room


August 23rd, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers R.Dempster vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 62.26% 7.52 61.60% 8.13 CHN 3-1
Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs U.Jimenez Giants 51.22% 8.0 43.70% 7.52 COL 4-2


Vegas Odds

Friday, August 21, 2009

Hey! Grrrr


August 22st, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers T.Lilly vs C.Haeger Cubs 50.98% 8.7 52.50% 8.59 LAN 2-0
Giants Rockies J.Martinez vs J.De la Rosa Rockies 63.10% 9.4 67.74% 9.99 COL 14-11


Vegas Odds

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Randy^2


August 21st, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers R.Wells vs R.Wolf Dodgers 59.02% 8.0 56.26% 8.43 LAN 2-1
Giants Rockies J.Sanchez vs A.Cook Rockies 61.54% 9.2 56.41% 9.43 SF 6-3


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Under Pressure


August 20th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers T.Gorzelanny vs J.Weaver Dodgers 55.75% 8.7 57.22% 9.15 LAN 7-2
Rockies Nationals J.Hammel vs G.Mock Rockies 56.71% 9.7 55.66% 9.22 COL 4-1
Giants Reds M.Cain vs A.Harang Giants 55.36% 7.4 50.70% 8.24 CIN 2-1


Vegas Odds

Pitchers Duel Azul


August 19th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cardinals Dodgers A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 55.16% 7.3 59.17% 7.63 STL 3-2
Giants Reds B.Zito vs B.Arroyo Reds 51.46% 8.5 47.11% 9.04 SF 1-0
Rockies Nationals J.Marquis vs J.Balester Rockies 60.00% 9.2 53.64% 9.49 COL 5-4


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 17, 2009

Ham Strung


August 18th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cardinals Dodgers M.Boggs vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 62.41% 8.2 64.86% 8.81 LAN 7-3
Giants Reds T.Lincecum vs H.Bailey Giants 68.35% 7.6 62.34% 8.14 SF 8-5
Rockies Nationals U.Jimenez vs C.Statten Rockies 60.94% 8.7 52.68% 9.2 COL 4-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Blue Knuckle Time


August 17th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cardinals Dodgers C.Carpenter vs C.Haeger Cardinals 60.32% 7.7 58.20% 8.43 STL 3-2
Giants Mets J.Martinez vs L.Hernandez Giants 51.22% 9.1 54.30% 9.22 SF 10-1


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Hungry Like The Randy Wolf


Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, August 14-16


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs D.Haren DBacks 50.25% 7.6 51.16% 9.15 ARI 4-1
Dodgers DBacks H.Kuroda vs D.Davis Dodgers 52.83% 9.2 54.00% 9.77 ARI 4-3
Dodgers DBacks R.Wolf vs Y.Petit Dodgers 58.51% 9.1 56.07% 10.47 LAN 9-3


Other Games of Interest


NL West, August 16th Games

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Mets J.Sanchez vs M.Pelfrey Giants 50.25% 8.4 45.13% 8.17 NYM 3-2
Rockies Marlins A.Cook vs C.Volstad Marlins 50.00% 8.7 54.23% 10.52 FLA 10-3
Rockies Marlins J.de la Rosa vs R.Vandenhurk Marlins 51.00% 9.3 53.71% 10.02 COL 7-3

NL West, August 15th Games

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Mets M.Cain vs J.Santana Mets 54.75% 7.1 55.50% 8.07 SF 5-4

NL West, August 14th Games

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Mets B.Zito vs B.Parnell Giants 50.98% 8.6 57.08% 9.17 NYN 3-0
Rockies Marlins J.Hammel vs J.Johnson Marlins 61.24% 8.3 53.31% 9.05 FLA 6-5

Pirates vs Rockies, August 13th
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Pirates Rockies P.Maholm vs J.Marquis Rockies 70.59% 9.7 63.51% 9.80 COL 10-1


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Weaver For The Sweep?


Dodgers vs Giants, August 12th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants J.Weaver vs T.Lincecum Giants 64.54% 7.1 72.67% 7.47 SF 3-2


Vegas Odds

Beat The Giants, Part II


Dodgers vs Giants, August 11th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants R.Wolf vs J.Martinez Dodgers 56.33% 8.5 47.14% 9.65 LAN 9-1


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 10, 2009

Stamp Out The Giants


Dodgers vs Giants, August 10th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants H.Kuroda vs J.Sanchez Dodgers 52.83% 8.4 54.89% 8.39 LAN 4-2


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 09, 2009

Slip Sliding Away


The Dodgers lead in the NL West is "Slip Sliding Away!".



NL West Standings
Team W L GB Pecota NL West Champ Chances
Dodgers 67 45 0 78.13%
Rockies 61 50 5.5 16.60%
Giants 61 50 5.5 5.25%
Diamondbacks 50 62 17 0.01%
Padres 47 66 20.5 0.00%


Wednesday, August 05, 2009

A Brave New Series


Braves vs Dodgers, August 6th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Braves Dodgers D.Lowe vs R.Wolf Dodgers 56.33% 8.3 54.92% 8.95 LAN 5-4
Braves Dodgers J.Jurrjens vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 55.36% 7.5 56.98% 8.63 ATL 9-5
Braves Dodgers K.Kawakami vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 62.26% 8.2 61.53% 9.08 ATL 2-1
Braves Dodgers J.Vazquez vs E.Stults Braves 55.36% 8.2 53.90% 8.06 ATL 8-2


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Tuesday... Bloody Tuesday


Brewers vs Dodgers, August 5th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U
Brewers Dodgers B.Looper vs J.Schmidt Dodgers 56.33% 9.5 55.34% 9.44

Actual Score: Brewers 4-1

Vegas Odds

Monday, August 03, 2009

Geared Up To Begin New Winning Streak


Brewers vs Dodgers, August 4th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U
Brewers Dodgers H.Kuroda vs Y.Gallardo Dodgers 54.34% 7.9 52.82% 7.11

Actual Score: Dodgers 17-4

Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 02, 2009

In Kemp We Trust!


Brewers vs Dodgers, August 3rd


Source Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Vegas Brewers Dodgers M.Parra vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 64.97% 8.4
Xeifrank System Brewers Dodgers M.Parra vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 66.59% 8.16

Actual Score: Brewers 6-5

Saturday, August 01, 2009

Some Like It Hot


Dodgers vs Braves, August 2nd


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Braves C.Billingsley vs J.Jurrjens Braves 57.08% 7.7


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

How Lowe Can You Go


Dodgers vs Braves, August 1st


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Braves R.Wolf vs D.Lowe Braves 55.95 8.5


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds