Wednesday, January 30, 2013

2013 World Series Odds


As of 1/30/2013...

Team12/15/12 Odds12/29/12 Odds1/30/13
Angels7-17-17-1
Tigers7-17-17-1
Dodgers7-17-17-1
Nationals8-18-18-1
Blue Jays10-110-110-1
Yankees10-112-114-1
Reds10-112-112-1
Rangers10-114-118-1
Cardinals14-114-114-1
Giants14-114-114-1
Phillies16-114-114-1
Braves16-116-114-1
Rays20-116-116-1
Brewers30-130-160-1
Red Sox30-130-130-1
Athletics40-130-130-1
Royals30-140-140-1
White Sox40-140-140-1
Diamdonbacks40-150-150-1
Orioles50-150-150-1
Pirates50-150-150-1
Cubs60-150-150-1
Mariners100-180-180-1
Indians100-180-180-1
Mets60-1100-1100-1
Padres100-1100-1100-1
Marlins100-1100-1100-1
Twins100-1100-1100-1
Astros100-1100-1100-1
Rockies100-1100-1100-1

Source: Sportsbook.com

Friday, January 04, 2013

The Better Offense - Rockies or Dodgers


So there is this Buster Olney guy who gets paid money to write about baseball.  Recently, he put up an article where he ranked the best offenses in baseball.  More than a few Dodgers fans were up in arms when Buster ranked the Rockies offense a few spots ahead of the Dodgers offense.  I was asked by a couple followers on twitter to run the numbers through my simulator where I can take into effect things like the enormously friendly park that the Rockies hit in.

This is a pretty easy exercise for me to run in my simulator.  What I did is get park neutral offensive stats for both the Rockies and Dodgers lineups.  I took the 8 starting hitters for each teams, as listed at MLBdepthCharts website and gave each team what the simulator thought was its most efficient lineup.  I then gave each team the exact same starting pitcher, bullpen, bench and made all park factors league average.  I then ran five million individual game simulations, pitting the two teams together.  I let each team be the away/home team and repeated the above process for both a right handed and left handed starting pitcher.

So the only difference is the two hitting lineups, everything else is held constant.  The metric to determine the better offense can now be measured in how many of the five million games each team won.  Here are the results...