Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Aaron Harang, The Worst Of The Bunch



Time to move on and look at the comparables for the last Dodgers starting pitcher. Keep in mind I am looking at 2010/2011 data using the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats. These stats are used because they are important skill stats, only slightly effected by such things as defense and park factors. Below are Aaron Harang's closest comparable starting pitchers along with links to the other four Dodgers pitchers I've already looked at.

Clayton Kershaw | Chad Billingsley | Ted Lilly | Chris Capuano

RankNameK/9BB/9GB/FB
 Aaron Harang6.63.030.96
1Wade LeBlanc6.473.150.82
2John Lackey6.343.071.18
3Ervin Santana6.922.890.98
4Phil Hughes6.882.960.76
5Jeff Niemann6.792.861.21
6Brett Cecil6.22.921.03
7Travis Wood6.852.830.68
8John Danks6.972.721.18
9Randy Wells6.1731.28
10Kevin Millwood6.172.680.96
11Johnny Cueto6.372.711.35
12Ryan Vogelsong6.993.141.34
13Johan Santana6.512.490.76
14Carlos Carrasco6.542.871.56
15Javier Vazquez7.242.970.74
16Jason Hammel6.052.991.36
17Jeremy Hellickson5.933.180.79
18Chris Narveson7.253.31.05
19Alexi Ogando6.682.320.92
20Jair Jurrjens5.92.881.06
21Clay Buchholz6.323.441.5
22Barry Zito6.463.740.84
23Brett Myers6.932.531.41
24Jeremy Bonderman5.883.181.14
25Luke Hochevar6.072.961.51
26Matt Harrison62.941.44
27Clayton Richard6.153.461.42
28Bruce Chen5.853.120.74
29Matt Cain7.22.510.91
30Brian Matusz7.233.470.74
31Brian Duensing6.062.571.34
32Randy Wolf5.83.220.94
33Edwin Jackson7.263.091.47
34Kyle Davies6.473.890.98
35Gavin Floyd7.152.441.36
36Philip Humber6.592.161.31
37Kevin Correia5.773.11.41
38Mike Leake6.062.481.52
39Joe Blanton6.972.151.22
40Daniel Hudson7.182.180.98
41Wade Davis5.573.20.87
42Chris Volstad5.792.881.62
43Jason Vargas5.652.580.8
44Shaun Marcum7.342.270.88
45Bartolo Colon7.182.181.24
46Derek Holland7.613.21.3
47Chris Carpenter7.052.251.59
48Roy Oswalt7.342.271.25
49Homer Bailey7.692.731.07
50Hiroki Kuroda7.232.191.41
51Dillon Gee6.043.951.36
52Tim Wakefield5.492.750.82
53Jake Peavy7.592.430.99
54Tim Stauffer6.042.561.89
55Freddy Garcia5.472.650.98
56Matt Garza7.772.81.04
57Carlos Zambrano7.14.111.13
58Ricky Romero7.283.351.9
59Jordan Zimmermann7.071.920.99
60Jon Garland5.813.791.5
61Dave Bush5.43.360.94
62Jaime Garcia7.242.872.03
63Ted Lilly7.552.210.64
64Justin Masterson6.723.212.25
65Chad Billingsley7.663.631.44
66Trevor Cahill5.93.232.07
67Ricky Nolasco7.31.911.22
68Chris Capuano7.882.611.05
69A.J. Burnett7.63.851.35
70Ian Kennedy7.922.70.91
71Jonathon Niese7.782.891.65
72Jeremy Guthrie5.342.480.99
73Kyle Lohse5.32.471.13
74Zach Britton5.663.621.86
75Ivan Nova5.453.171.82
76Brett Anderson6.262.162.09
77James McDonald7.83.90.86
78Wandy Rodriguez8.023.191.39
79Dallas Braden5.472.050.99
80Tom Gorzelanny7.913.770.89
81C.J. Wilson7.923.521.51
82Jake Arrieta5.944.381.14
83R.A. Dickey5.572.241.74
84Zach Duke5.232.661.5
85Rodrigo Lopez5.132.50.97
86Kevin Slowey6.481.510.56
87Josh Beckett8.172.721.09
88Scott Baker7.992.240.8
89Colby Lewis8.192.710.77
90Paul Maholm5.152.91.72
91Fausto Carmona5.262.981.92
92Max Scherzer8.252.91.02
93CC Sabathia8.092.561.51
94Derek Lowe6.453.12.61
95Madison Bumgarner7.92.051.3
96Anibal Sanchez8.263.081.21
97Charlie Morton6.053.692.43
98Jhoulys Chacin7.664.041.83
99Mike Pelfrey4.9531.4
100Livan Hernandez4.952.561.07
101Armando Galarraga4.953.540.8
102Tim Hudson6.022.642.57
103Brandon McCarthy6.491.321.45
104James Shields8.212.291.18
105Dan Haren7.761.661.05
106Daisuke Matsuzaka7.534.550.69
107Bronson Arroyo4.972.260.99
108Doug Fister5.551.621.43
109Joe Saunders4.812.841.23
110Jake Westbrook5.413.292.35
111David Price8.442.961.16
112Mitch Talbot53.911.34
113Jeff Karstens5.191.821.22
114Jorge de la Rosa8.223.841.55
115Jason Marquis5.053.162.1
116Tommy Hanson8.522.760.99
117Dustin Moseley4.743.051.51
118Gio Gonzalez8.234.091.4
119J.A. Happ7.534.80.8
120Rick Porcello4.912.191.65
121Jeff Francis4.951.961.38
122Felipe Paulino8.373.971.13
123Adam Wainwright8.322.191.68
124Jered Weaver8.432.150.71
125Felix Hernandez8.452.551.72
126Brad Bergesen4.562.791.2
127John Lannan4.863.432.03
128Scott Kazmir5.524.810.88
129Ryan Dempster8.63.621.27
130Tommy Hunter4.691.981.01
131Cole Hamels8.622.241.37
132Ubaldo Jimenez8.653.731.41
133Francisco Liriano8.623.641.66
134Joel Pineiro4.692.171.71
135Josh Tomlin4.981.510.82
136Mat Latos8.882.661.07
137Kyle Kendrick4.422.241.17
138Zack Greinke8.782.31.37
139Mark Buehrle4.52.041.23
140Justin Verlander8.882.420.98
141Bud Norris8.853.891.06
142Josh Johnson8.932.511.39
143Roy Halladay8.161.211.7
144Michael Pineda9.112.890.81
145Brad Penny4.132.691.58
146Nick Blackburn4.172.761.8
147Rich Harden8.634.760.68
148Aaron Cook4.353.582.32
149Cliff Lee8.561.211.21
150Carl Pavano4.451.561.64
151Jon Lester9.173.561.65
152Yovani Gallardo9.343.071.29
153Clayton Kershaw9.462.781.04
154Tim Lincecum9.453.41.5
155Edinson Volquez8.985.251.75
156Jonathan Sanchez9.364.951.01
157Brandon Beachy10.573.040.77
158Brandon Morrow10.533.730.91


Monday, December 19, 2011

Chris Capuano, Better Than You Think



It's time to look at one of the new additions to the Dodgers rotation and which pitchers around the majors have a similar skill set as him. Chris Capuano was signed as a free-agent after leaving the New York Mets. Capuano does have peripherals that compare to some pretty good pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Matt Garza. Capuano did put up much better stats at home than on the road but I am looking at three skill stats in which park factors do not play a big role in. Below are Capuano's closest comparables (using 2010 and 2011 stats, min of 150 IP).

RankNameK/9BB/9GB/FB
 Chris Capuano7.882.611.05
1Ian Kennedy7.922.70.91
2Matt Garza7.772.81.04
3Homer Bailey7.692.731.07
4Josh Beckett8.172.721.09
5Jake Peavy7.592.430.99
6Colby Lewis8.192.710.77
7Scott Baker7.992.240.8
8Max Scherzer8.252.91.02
9James Shields8.212.291.18
10CC Sabathia8.092.561.51
11Madison Bumgarner7.92.051.3
12Anibal Sanchez8.263.081.21
13Tommy Hanson8.522.760.99
14Shaun Marcum7.342.270.88
15Ted Lilly7.552.210.64
16Roy Oswalt7.342.271.25
17David Price8.442.961.16
18Jonathon Niese7.782.891.65
19Wandy Rodriguez8.023.191.39
20Derek Holland7.613.21.3
21Matt Cain7.22.510.91
22Jered Weaver8.432.150.71
23Javier Vazquez7.242.970.74
24Gavin Floyd7.152.441.36
25Daniel Hudson7.182.180.98
26Bartolo Colon7.182.181.24
27Hiroki Kuroda7.232.191.41
28Adam Wainwright8.322.191.68
29Felix Hernandez8.452.551.72
30Cole Hamels8.622.241.37
31Edwin Jackson7.263.091.47
32Ricky Nolasco7.31.911.22
33John Danks6.972.721.18
34Chris Narveson7.253.31.05
35Dan Haren7.761.661.05
36Mat Latos8.882.661.07
37Ervin Santana6.922.890.98
38Zack Greinke8.782.31.37
39Brett Myers6.932.531.41
40Justin Verlander8.882.420.98
41C.J. Wilson7.923.521.51
42Joe Blanton6.972.151.22
43Chris Carpenter7.052.251.59
44Jordan Zimmermann7.071.920.99
45Ryan Vogelsong6.993.141.34
46Phil Hughes6.882.960.76
47Josh Johnson8.932.511.39
48Chad Billingsley7.663.631.44
49Travis Wood6.852.830.68
50Brian Matusz7.233.470.74
51Jeff Niemann6.792.861.21
52Tom Gorzelanny7.913.770.89
53Jaime Garcia7.242.872.03
54Alexi Ogando6.682.320.92
55Ryan Dempster8.63.621.27
56Ricky Romero7.283.351.9
57Michael Pineda9.112.890.81
58A.J. Burnett7.63.851.35
59James McDonald7.83.90.86
60Aaron Harang6.63.030.96
61Jorge de la Rosa8.223.841.55
62Philip Humber6.592.161.31
63Johan Santana6.512.490.76
64Ubaldo Jimenez8.653.731.41
65Francisco Liriano8.623.641.66
66Felipe Paulino8.373.971.13
67Carlos Carrasco6.542.871.56
68Wade LeBlanc6.473.150.82
69Johnny Cueto6.372.711.35
70Yovani Gallardo9.343.071.29
71Gio Gonzalez8.234.091.4
72Cliff Lee8.561.211.21
73Roy Halladay8.161.211.7
74Clayton Kershaw9.462.781.04
75Bud Norris8.853.891.06
76John Lackey6.343.071.18
77Jhoulys Chacin7.664.041.83
78Carlos Zambrano7.14.111.13
79Brett Cecil6.22.921.03
80Jon Lester9.173.561.65
81Kevin Millwood6.172.680.96
82Randy Wells6.1731.28
83Justin Masterson6.723.212.25
84Tim Lincecum9.453.41.5
85Clay Buchholz6.323.441.5
86Barry Zito6.463.740.84
87Brian Duensing6.062.571.34
88Kevin Slowey6.481.510.56
89Mike Leake6.062.481.52
90Jason Hammel6.052.991.36
91Luke Hochevar6.072.961.51
92Kyle Davies6.473.890.98
93Brandon McCarthy6.491.321.45
94Matt Harrison62.941.44
95Clayton Richard6.153.461.42
96Brett Anderson6.262.162.09
97Jair Jurrjens5.92.881.06
98Daisuke Matsuzaka7.534.550.69
99Tim Stauffer6.042.561.89
100Jeremy Hellickson5.933.180.79
101Jeremy Bonderman5.883.181.14
102Bruce Chen5.853.120.74
103Randy Wolf5.83.220.94
104Derek Lowe6.453.12.61
105Chris Volstad5.792.881.62
106Kevin Correia5.773.11.41
107J.A. Happ7.534.80.8
108Jason Vargas5.652.580.8
109Dillon Gee6.043.951.36
110Rich Harden8.634.760.68
111Trevor Cahill5.93.232.07
112Wade Davis5.573.20.87
113Tim Hudson6.022.642.57
114Tim Wakefield5.492.750.82
115Freddy Garcia5.472.650.98
116Jon Garland5.813.791.5
117R.A. Dickey5.572.241.74
118Dallas Braden5.472.050.99
119Charlie Morton6.053.692.43
120Jeremy Guthrie5.342.480.99
121Doug Fister5.551.621.43
122Zach Britton5.663.621.86
123Kyle Lohse5.32.471.13
124Dave Bush5.43.360.94
125Ivan Nova5.453.171.82
126Jake Arrieta5.944.381.14
127Zach Duke5.232.661.5
128Brandon Beachy10.573.040.77
129Rodrigo Lopez5.132.50.97
130Jonathan Sanchez9.364.951.01
131Fausto Carmona5.262.981.92
132Jeff Karstens5.191.821.22
133Paul Maholm5.152.91.72
134Jake Westbrook5.413.292.35
135Brandon Morrow10.533.730.91
136Livan Hernandez4.952.561.07
137Bronson Arroyo4.972.260.99
138Edinson Volquez8.985.251.75
139Mike Pelfrey4.9531.4
140Jeff Francis4.951.961.38
141Rick Porcello4.912.191.65
142Jason Marquis5.053.162.1
143Joe Saunders4.812.841.23
144Armando Galarraga4.953.540.8
145Josh Tomlin4.981.510.82
146Mitch Talbot53.911.34
147Dustin Moseley4.743.051.51
148Scott Kazmir5.524.810.88
149Tommy Hunter4.691.981.01
150John Lannan4.863.432.03
151Joel Pineiro4.692.171.71
152Brad Bergesen4.562.791.2
153Mark Buehrle4.52.041.23
154Kyle Kendrick4.422.241.17
155Carl Pavano4.451.561.64
156Nick Blackburn4.172.761.8
157Brad Penny4.132.691.58
158Aaron Cook4.353.582.32


Sunday, December 18, 2011

Nobody Wants To Be Ted Lilly



Next up on the Dodgers starting pitcher similarity scores is Ted Lilly the left handed pitcher for the Dodgers that has a tendency to give up a lot of fly balls which in turn leads to a souvenir bonanza for those fans brave enough to sit in the outfield bleachers.

RankNameK/9BB/9GB/FB
 Ted Lilly7.552.210.64
1Shaun Marcum7.342.270.88
2Jake Peavy7.592.430.99
3Scott Baker7.992.240.8
4Daniel Hudson7.182.180.98
5Matt Cain7.22.510.91
6Roy Oswalt7.342.271.25
7Jordan Zimmermann7.071.920.99
8Chris Capuano7.882.611.05
9Ian Kennedy7.922.70.91
10Homer Bailey7.692.731.07
11Ricky Nolasco7.31.911.22
12Bartolo Colon7.182.181.24
13Dan Haren7.761.661.05
14Matt Garza7.772.81.04
15Madison Bumgarner7.92.051.3
16Joe Blanton6.972.151.22
17Colby Lewis8.192.710.77
18Javier Vazquez7.242.970.74
19Hiroki Kuroda7.232.191.41
20Gavin Floyd7.152.441.36
21James Shields8.212.291.18
22Jered Weaver8.432.150.71
23Josh Beckett8.172.721.09
24Alexi Ogando6.682.320.92
25Travis Wood6.852.830.68
26John Danks6.972.721.18
27Ervin Santana6.922.890.98
28Phil Hughes6.882.960.76
29Brett Myers6.932.531.41
30Max Scherzer8.252.91.02
31Chris Carpenter7.052.251.59
32CC Sabathia8.092.561.51
33Johan Santana6.512.490.76
34Jeff Niemann6.792.861.21
35Tommy Hanson8.522.760.99
36Philip Humber6.592.161.31
37Derek Holland7.613.21.3
38Chris Narveson7.253.31.05
39Jonathon Niese7.782.891.65
40Edwin Jackson7.263.091.47
41Anibal Sanchez8.263.081.21
42David Price8.442.961.16
43Kevin Slowey6.481.510.56
44Ryan Vogelsong6.993.141.34
45Adam Wainwright8.322.191.68
46Aaron Harang6.63.030.96
47Cole Hamels8.622.241.37
48Brian Matusz7.233.470.74
49Wandy Rodriguez8.023.191.39
50Justin Verlander8.882.420.98
51Zack Greinke8.782.31.37
52Wade LeBlanc6.473.150.82
53Felix Hernandez8.452.551.72
54Johnny Cueto6.372.711.35
55Mat Latos8.882.661.07
56Kevin Millwood6.172.680.96
57Carlos Carrasco6.542.871.56
58Cliff Lee8.561.211.21
59Jaime Garcia7.242.872.03
60Brett Cecil6.22.921.03
61John Lackey6.343.071.18
62Roy Halladay8.161.211.7
63Josh Johnson8.932.511.39
64Brandon McCarthy6.491.321.45
65C.J. Wilson7.923.521.51
66Tom Gorzelanny7.913.770.89
67Chad Billingsley7.663.631.44
68Brian Duensing6.062.571.34
69Michael Pineda9.112.890.81
70Randy Wells6.1731.28
71Ricky Romero7.283.351.9
72James McDonald7.83.90.86
73Mike Leake6.062.481.52
74A.J. Burnett7.63.851.35
75Jair Jurrjens5.92.881.06
76Jason Hammel6.052.991.36
77Ryan Dempster8.63.621.27
78Luke Hochevar6.072.961.51
79Barry Zito6.463.740.84
80Matt Harrison62.941.44
81Jeremy Hellickson5.933.180.79
82Bruce Chen5.853.120.74
83Clay Buchholz6.323.441.5
84Brett Anderson6.262.162.09
85Jason Vargas5.652.580.8
86Jorge de la Rosa8.223.841.55
87Tim Stauffer6.042.561.89
88Jeremy Bonderman5.883.181.14
89Felipe Paulino8.373.971.13
90Carlos Zambrano7.14.111.13
91Kyle Davies6.473.890.98
92Ubaldo Jimenez8.653.731.41
93Clayton Richard6.153.461.42
94Clayton Kershaw9.462.781.04
95Randy Wolf5.83.220.94
96Francisco Liriano8.623.641.66
97Justin Masterson6.723.212.25
98Yovani Gallardo9.343.071.29
99Dallas Braden5.472.050.99
100Chris Volstad5.792.881.62
101Kevin Correia5.773.11.41
102Tim Wakefield5.492.750.82
103Gio Gonzalez8.234.091.4
104Freddy Garcia5.472.650.98
105Bud Norris8.853.891.06
106Jhoulys Chacin7.664.041.83
107Wade Davis5.573.20.87
108Doug Fister5.551.621.43
109Jeremy Guthrie5.342.480.99
110R.A. Dickey5.572.241.74
111Kyle Lohse5.32.471.13
112Jon Lester9.173.561.65
113Daisuke Matsuzaka7.534.550.69
114Tim Lincecum9.453.41.5
115Trevor Cahill5.93.232.07
116Dillon Gee6.043.951.36
117Derek Lowe6.453.12.61
118Dave Bush5.43.360.94
119Rodrigo Lopez5.132.50.97
120Jeff Karstens5.191.821.22
121Tim Hudson6.022.642.57
122Jon Garland5.813.791.5
123Zach Duke5.232.661.5
124Ivan Nova5.453.171.82
125J.A. Happ7.534.80.8
126Bronson Arroyo4.972.260.99
127Zach Britton5.663.621.86
128Livan Hernandez4.952.561.07
129Josh Tomlin4.981.510.82
130Jeff Francis4.951.961.38
131Paul Maholm5.152.91.72
132Fausto Carmona5.262.981.92
133Jake Arrieta5.944.381.14
134Charlie Morton6.053.692.43
135Rich Harden8.634.760.68
136Mike Pelfrey4.9531.4
137Rick Porcello4.912.191.65
138Joe Saunders4.812.841.23
139Tommy Hunter4.691.981.01
140Armando Galarraga4.953.540.8
141Jake Westbrook5.413.292.35
142Jason Marquis5.053.162.1
143Joel Pineiro4.692.171.71
144Dustin Moseley4.743.051.51
145Brad Bergesen4.562.791.2
146Mark Buehrle4.52.041.23
147Brandon Beachy10.573.040.77
148Mitch Talbot53.911.34
149Kyle Kendrick4.422.241.17
150John Lannan4.863.432.03
151Jonathan Sanchez9.364.951.01
152Scott Kazmir5.524.810.88
153Carl Pavano4.451.561.64
154Brandon Morrow10.533.730.91
155Edinson Volquez8.985.251.75
156Brad Penny4.132.691.58
157Nick Blackburn4.172.761.8
158Aaron Cook4.353.582.32


Friday, December 16, 2011

Chad Billingsley, A Mixed Bag



Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Chad Billingsley. There are a mixed bag of pitchers who have a similar skill set as Billingsley. A.J. Burnett is not the best player to be comparable to in the world, yet C.J. Wilson isn't too bad. I will have lists for a few of the other Dodgers starting pitchers up in the next couple of days.

RankNameK/9BB/9GB/FB
 Chad Billingsley7.663.631.44
1A.J. Burnett7.63.851.35
2C.J. Wilson7.923.521.51
3Derek Holland7.613.21.3
4Jhoulys Chacin7.664.041.83
5Wandy Rodriguez8.023.191.39
6Jorge de la Rosa8.223.841.55
7Tom Gorzelanny7.913.770.89
8James McDonald7.83.90.86
9Chris Narveson7.253.31.05
10Ricky Romero7.283.351.9
11Edwin Jackson7.263.091.47
12Gio Gonzalez8.234.091.4
13Jonathon Niese7.782.891.65
14Carlos Zambrano7.14.111.13
15Ryan Vogelsong6.993.141.34
16Brian Matusz7.233.470.74
17Anibal Sanchez8.263.081.21
18Felipe Paulino8.373.971.13
19Matt Garza7.772.81.04
20Ryan Dempster8.63.621.27
21Homer Bailey7.692.731.07
22Francisco Liriano8.623.641.66
23Ubaldo Jimenez8.653.731.41
24Max Scherzer8.252.91.02
25Javier Vazquez7.242.970.74
26Jaime Garcia7.242.872.03
27David Price8.442.961.16
28Josh Beckett8.172.721.09
29Ian Kennedy7.922.70.91
30Chris Capuano7.882.611.05
31Ervin Santana6.922.890.98
32CC Sabathia8.092.561.51
33John Danks6.972.721.18
34Jeff Niemann6.792.861.21
35Daisuke Matsuzaka7.534.550.69
36Phil Hughes6.882.960.76
37Colby Lewis8.192.710.77
38Bud Norris8.853.891.06
39Jake Peavy7.592.430.99
40Gavin Floyd7.152.441.36
41Kyle Davies6.473.890.98
42Tommy Hanson8.522.760.99
43Aaron Harang6.63.030.96
44Justin Masterson6.723.212.25
45Brett Myers6.932.531.41
46Matt Cain7.22.510.91
47J.A. Happ7.534.80.8
48Barry Zito6.463.740.84
49Clay Buchholz6.323.441.5
50Carlos Carrasco6.542.871.56
51Felix Hernandez8.452.551.72
52Travis Wood6.852.830.68
53Roy Oswalt7.342.271.25
54Wade LeBlanc6.473.150.82
55John Lackey6.343.071.18
56James Shields8.212.291.18
57Hiroki Kuroda7.232.191.41
58Shaun Marcum7.342.270.88
59Chris Carpenter7.052.251.59
60Clayton Richard6.153.461.42
61Jon Lester9.173.561.65
62Bartolo Colon7.182.181.24
63Scott Baker7.992.240.8
64Johnny Cueto6.372.711.35
65Daniel Hudson7.182.180.98
66Mat Latos8.882.661.07
67Adam Wainwright8.322.191.68
68Madison Bumgarner7.92.051.3
69Randy Wells6.1731.28
70Ted Lilly7.552.210.64
71Joe Blanton6.972.151.22
72Dillon Gee6.043.951.36
73Rich Harden8.634.760.68
74Brett Cecil6.22.921.03
75Cole Hamels8.622.241.37
76Josh Johnson8.932.511.39
77Alexi Ogando6.682.320.92
78Luke Hochevar6.072.961.51
79Jason Hammel6.052.991.36
80Zack Greinke8.782.31.37
81Michael Pineda9.112.890.81
82Johan Santana6.512.490.76
83Derek Lowe6.453.12.61
84Ricky Nolasco7.31.911.22
85Yovani Gallardo9.343.071.29
86Justin Verlander8.882.420.98
87Matt Harrison62.941.44
88Tim Lincecum9.453.41.5
89Jered Weaver8.432.150.71
90Philip Humber6.592.161.31
91Kevin Millwood6.172.680.96
92Jon Garland5.813.791.5
93Jeremy Bonderman5.883.181.14
94Jordan Zimmermann7.071.920.99
95Charlie Morton6.053.692.43
96Jake Arrieta5.944.381.14
97Jeremy Hellickson5.933.180.79
98Trevor Cahill5.93.232.07
99Brian Duensing6.062.571.34
100Jair Jurrjens5.92.881.06
101Kevin Correia5.773.11.41
102Randy Wolf5.83.220.94
103Mike Leake6.062.481.52
104Tim Stauffer6.042.561.89
105Bruce Chen5.853.120.74
106Dan Haren7.761.661.05
107Chris Volstad5.792.881.62
108Clayton Kershaw9.462.781.04
109Zach Britton5.663.621.86
110Edinson Volquez8.985.251.75
111Brett Anderson6.262.162.09
112Jonathan Sanchez9.364.951.01
113Wade Davis5.573.20.87
114Tim Hudson6.022.642.57
115Ivan Nova5.453.171.82
116Dave Bush5.43.360.94
117Jason Vargas5.652.580.8
118Tim Wakefield5.492.750.82
119Freddy Garcia5.472.650.98
120Jake Westbrook5.413.292.35
121Roy Halladay8.161.211.7
122Scott Kazmir5.524.810.88
123R.A. Dickey5.572.241.74
124Fausto Carmona5.262.981.92
125Kevin Slowey6.481.510.56
126Brandon McCarthy6.491.321.45
127Cliff Lee8.561.211.21
128Zach Duke5.232.661.5
129Jeremy Guthrie5.342.480.99
130Paul Maholm5.152.91.72
131Kyle Lohse5.32.471.13
132Mitch Talbot53.911.34
133Jason Marquis5.053.162.1
134Dallas Braden5.472.050.99
135Mike Pelfrey4.9531.4
136Armando Galarraga4.953.540.8
137Rodrigo Lopez5.132.50.97
138John Lannan4.863.432.03
139Doug Fister5.551.621.43
140Brandon Morrow10.533.730.91
141Livan Hernandez4.952.561.07
142Joe Saunders4.812.841.23
143Dustin Moseley4.743.051.51
144Brandon Beachy10.573.040.77
145Bronson Arroyo4.972.260.99
146Jeff Karstens5.191.821.22
147Rick Porcello4.912.191.65
148Jeff Francis4.951.961.38
149Brad Bergesen4.562.791.2
150Joel Pineiro4.692.171.71
151Tommy Hunter4.691.981.01
152Aaron Cook4.353.582.32
153Josh Tomlin4.981.510.82
154Kyle Kendrick4.422.241.17
155Mark Buehrle4.52.041.23
156Nick Blackburn4.172.761.8
157Brad Penny4.132.691.58
158Carl Pavano4.451.561.64


Thursday, December 15, 2011

Kershaw Wannabes



Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw. I will have lists for other Dodgers pitchers up in the near future. Note this chart was revised when first brought to my attention that I had only included 2011 data.

RankNameK/9BB/9GB/FB
 Clayton Kershaw9.462.781.04
1Yovani Gallardo9.343.071.29
2Michael Pineda9.112.890.81
3Mat Latos8.882.661.07
4Justin Verlander8.882.420.98
5Josh Johnson8.932.511.39
6Tim Lincecum9.453.41.5
7Zack Greinke8.782.31.37
8Tommy Hanson8.522.760.99
9Jon Lester9.173.561.65
10David Price8.442.961.16
11Cole Hamels8.622.241.37
12Brandon Beachy10.573.040.77
13Max Scherzer8.252.91.02
14Ryan Dempster8.63.621.27
15Felix Hernandez8.452.551.72
16Anibal Sanchez8.263.081.21
17Jered Weaver8.432.150.71
18Bud Norris8.853.891.06
19Josh Beckett8.172.721.09
20Colby Lewis8.192.710.77
21Ubaldo Jimenez8.653.731.41
22James Shields8.212.291.18
23Francisco Liriano8.623.641.66
24Adam Wainwright8.322.191.68
25Brandon Morrow10.533.730.91
26CC Sabathia8.092.561.51
27Wandy Rodriguez8.023.191.39
28Ian Kennedy7.922.70.91
29Scott Baker7.992.240.8
30Chris Capuano7.882.611.05
31Felipe Paulino8.373.971.13
32Matt Garza7.772.81.04
33Jorge de la Rosa8.223.841.55
34Madison Bumgarner7.92.051.3
35Homer Bailey7.692.731.07
36C.J. Wilson7.923.521.51
37Jonathon Niese7.782.891.65
38Cliff Lee8.561.211.21
39Gio Gonzalez8.234.091.4
40Tom Gorzelanny7.913.770.89
41Jake Peavy7.592.430.99
42Derek Holland7.613.21.3
43James McDonald7.83.90.86
44Chad Billingsley7.663.631.44
45Ted Lilly7.552.210.64
46Dan Haren7.761.661.05
47Roy Halladay8.161.211.7
48A.J. Burnett7.63.851.35
49Jonathan Sanchez9.364.951.01
50Rich Harden8.634.760.68
51Shaun Marcum7.342.270.88
52Roy Oswalt7.342.271.25
53Javier Vazquez7.242.970.74
54Edwin Jackson7.263.091.47
55Chris Narveson7.253.31.05
56Matt Cain7.22.510.91
57Jhoulys Chacin7.664.041.83
58Ricky Nolasco7.31.911.22
59Hiroki Kuroda7.232.191.41
60Brian Matusz7.233.470.74
61Gavin Floyd7.152.441.36
62Daniel Hudson7.182.180.98
63Bartolo Colon7.182.181.24
64Ricky Romero7.283.351.9
65Jaime Garcia7.242.872.03
66John Danks6.972.721.18
67Ryan Vogelsong6.993.141.34
68Chris Carpenter7.052.251.59
69Jordan Zimmermann7.071.920.99
70Ervin Santana6.922.890.98
71Brett Myers6.932.531.41
72Joe Blanton6.972.151.22
73Phil Hughes6.882.960.76
74Edinson Volquez8.985.251.75
75Travis Wood6.852.830.68
76Daisuke Matsuzaka7.534.550.69
77Jeff Niemann6.792.861.21
78Carlos Zambrano7.14.111.13
79J.A. Happ7.534.80.8
80Alexi Ogando6.682.320.92
81Aaron Harang6.63.030.96
82Philip Humber6.592.161.31
83Carlos Carrasco6.542.871.56
84Johan Santana6.512.490.76
85Wade LeBlanc6.473.150.82
86Justin Masterson6.723.212.25
87Johnny Cueto6.372.711.35
88John Lackey6.343.071.18
89Barry Zito6.463.740.84
90Kyle Davies6.473.890.98
91Clay Buchholz6.323.441.5
92Brett Cecil6.22.921.03
93Kevin Slowey6.481.510.56
94Kevin Millwood6.172.680.96
95Randy Wells6.1731.28
96Brandon McCarthy6.491.321.45
97Clayton Richard6.153.461.42
98Derek Lowe6.453.12.61
99Brian Duensing6.062.571.34
100Brett Anderson6.262.162.09
101Luke Hochevar6.072.961.51
102Jason Hammel6.052.991.36
103Mike Leake6.062.481.52
104Matt Harrison62.941.44
105Tim Stauffer6.042.561.89
106Jeremy Hellickson5.933.180.79
107Jair Jurrjens5.92.881.06
108Jeremy Bonderman5.883.181.14
109Dillon Gee6.043.951.36
110Bruce Chen5.853.120.74
111Randy Wolf5.83.220.94
112Chris Volstad5.792.881.62
113Kevin Correia5.773.11.41
114Trevor Cahill5.93.232.07
115Tim Hudson6.022.642.57
116Charlie Morton6.053.692.43
117Jon Garland5.813.791.5
118Jason Vargas5.652.580.8
119Jake Arrieta5.944.381.14
120Wade Davis5.573.20.87
121Tim Wakefield5.492.750.82
122Zach Britton5.663.621.86
123R.A. Dickey5.572.241.74
124Freddy Garcia5.472.650.98
125Dallas Braden5.472.050.99
126Doug Fister5.551.621.43
127Dave Bush5.43.360.94
128Ivan Nova5.453.171.82
129Jeremy Guthrie5.342.480.99
130Kyle Lohse5.32.471.13
131Zach Duke5.232.661.5
132Jake Westbrook5.413.292.35
133Fausto Carmona5.262.981.92
134Rodrigo Lopez5.132.50.97
135Paul Maholm5.152.91.72
136Jeff Karstens5.191.821.22
137Scott Kazmir5.524.810.88
138Livan Hernandez4.952.561.07
139Bronson Arroyo4.972.260.99
140Mike Pelfrey4.9531.4
141Jason Marquis5.053.162.1
142Armando Galarraga4.953.540.8
143Jeff Francis4.951.961.38
144Mitch Talbot53.911.34
145Rick Porcello4.912.191.65
146Joe Saunders4.812.841.23
147Josh Tomlin4.981.510.82
148John Lannan4.863.432.03
149Dustin Moseley4.743.051.51
150Tommy Hunter4.691.981.01
151Joel Pineiro4.692.171.71
152Brad Bergesen4.562.791.2
153Mark Buehrle4.52.041.23
154Kyle Kendrick4.422.241.17
155Carl Pavano4.451.561.64
156Aaron Cook4.353.582.32
157Nick Blackburn4.172.761.8
158Brad Penny4.132.691.58

Friday, December 09, 2011

Looking Ahead to 2012



I have programmed up my simulator with the 2012 schedule and all of the updated trades and free agent signings (well at least the most significant ones). Still a little house keeping to do on updating my park factors and defensive ratings. Here is a preliminary look at how the simulator likes the 2012 Dodgers, including how it thinks the Dodgers will do on a month by month basis and which starting pitchers will have the most success.

MonthWinsLossesWPct
April13.4613.540.4984
May14.1112.890.5225
June13.6213.380.5043
July13.1813.820.4880
August13.0813.920.4846
September12.7014.300.4703
Overall80.1481.860.4947

Well, from the looks of this the Dodgers will be right around a .500 team. No real big surprise there as the team has lost one of its better starting pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda. NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp will be hard pressed to repeat their 2011 performances, but the Dodgers should offset their regression with full seasons from Dee Gordon and Andre Ethier. May appears to be the Dodgers easiest month by far. A quick look at their May schedule shows them playing @COL, @CHN, SF, COL, ARI, @SD, STL, @ARI, HOU, MIL - which is 18 out of 28 games at home. On the flip side, September appears to be the Dodgers toughest month. A look at the September schedule shows, ARI, SD, @SF, @ARI, STL, @WAS, @CIN, @SD, COL - which is 14 out of 26 games on the road.

Now let's take a look at how many games the Dodgers won in games in which their top five starters pitched in. In my seasonal simulation I took all 162 starts from each team from its top five starters. In reality this isn't too realistic, but it is too tough at this point to get starting rotation depth charts for each team, and in this exercise at least each team is playing by the same rules.

NameWinsLossesWPct
Kershaw18.5414.460.5620
Billingsley15.7917.220.4783
Lilly15.5016.500.4843
Capuano15.4616.540.4831
Harang14.8517.150.4641


Clayton Kershaw is obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the Dodgers starters, netting 2.75 for the Dodgers in games that he starts than his nearest teammate (Chad Billingsley). Billingsley, Lilly and Capuano are all pretty interchangeable with Harang being the obvious 5th starter for the men in blue.

Sunday, December 04, 2011

2012 MLB Schedule In Text Ascii Format



The format is the following:

Game Number,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home 2430,2012,10,3,LAA,SEA

The game number is just a counter from 1 to 2430 of all the scheduled games. It is easy enough to change or ignore the game counter if need be, but I use it. I have uploaded this text ascii (comma delimited) file as a shared Google document, one that anyone with the link can view or download.

Thursday, December 01, 2011

How To Handicap Defense In Baseball



Hitting and pitching, they both play a big role in how you should handicap a baseball game. The often forgotten and important piece of the puzzle is defense. Just how much does the removal or addition of a good defensive player effect the likely outcome (think win probability) of a single baseball game?

I am sure there are many ways of solving this problem. The method I am going to use is a theoretical one. First let's take a swag at how many runs per season a good defensive player saves over an average defensive player. I think 20 runs per season is a good conservative number for a good (think Brett Gardner) and a bad one (think Raul Ibanez) costing his team 20 runs per season.

20 runs over a 162 games averages out to around 0.123 runs per game. If we set our run environment to 9 runs per game, which is fairly accurate but the round number makes the math easier, we get a 50/50 game having 4.5 runs for both Team A and Team B. On Vegas with no juice this would be a -100/+100 game on the Money Line (ML). Now let's assume an average defensive player on Team A is replaced with a player who the only difference is, is that he is a +20 (runs saved per season) player. Team A now scores 4.5 runs per 27 outs but Team B now only scores (4.5 - 0.123) 4.377 runs per 27. Using the pythagorean formula for a quick and dirty win probability calculation Team A now has a win probability of 51.3853%. So his glove is worth approximately 1.39% win expectancy. On the Vegas ML the -100/+100 (no juice) line would now look like -106/+106.

This would mean that if we instead put a -20 run defensive player in, instead of the +20 player. We would see Team A get a 48.6147% win probability and be on the other side of the -106/+106 line, for a whopping drop in win expectancy of 2.46% in this example. Of course things are effected a little bit differently based on the run environment and type of pitcher pitching. An infielder in a low run environment game playing behind a ground ball pitcher will have a bigger effect on the game outcome than he would in a game being played in a higher run environment with a strikeout pitcher who sees very few balls put in play.

These are all things to take into consideration and each defensive replacement must be looked at on a case by case basis, but for a rough calculation replacing a great fielder with an average one will cost your team a little over 1% in win probability and replacing a great fielder with a very bad one will cost you around 2.5% in win probability, looking at defense only.