## Friday, February 22, 2008

### Dodgers WAR

WAR or Win Above Replacement, is the favorite method of the sabermetric community in determining the value, measured in the units of wins that a player has over the typical replacement level player. Tango Tiger and the USS Mariner blog both have great write-ups on how to calculate WAR. As an excercise in understanding how to calculate WAR I took to calculating WAR for all of the National League West teams and players. By summing the WAR of all the players on a team and accounting for playing time, one can get an idea of how many wins the team should get.

Please keep in mind that I am no Bill James, so this chart was done to the best of my ability. I do have wiggle room for some of the defense and base running adjustments, but they won't change the values significantly. All of these numbers are based off of 2008 ZIPS Projections and my estimates for playing time, therefore it is not a perfect science.
 WAR - Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters Player Playing Time Park Adj wOBA Pre-WAR Pos/Def/BR WAR WAR\$ R.Martin 0.80 .3537 .9127 3.0/0.0/0.1 3.19 \$14.44M G.Bennett 0.25 .2693 -.9962 3.0/0.0/-0.1 0.48 \$2.49M J.Loney 0.85 .3726 2.006 1.0/0.0/0.1 2.55 \$11.64M M.Sweeney 0.1 .3238 -.8222 1.0/-0.5/-0.1 -0.04 \$0.21M J.Kent 0.70 .3500 .6964 2.0/-0.5/-0.1 1.47 \$6.86M T.Abreu 0.35 .2988 -2.274 2.0/0.0/0.1 -0.06 \$0.13M A.LaRoche 0.60 .3416 .2082 2.0/0.0/0.0 1.32 \$6.23M N.Garciappara 0.50 .3190 -.1.099 2/-0.5/0.0 0.20 \$1.28M R.Furcal 0.85 .3311 -.3989 2.5/0.0/0.1 1.87 \$8.63M A.Ethier 0.65 .3568 1.087 1.5/0.5/0.1 2.07 \$9.52M J.Pierre 0.60 .3084 -1.719 1.5/0.0/1.0 0.47 \$2.47M D.Young 0.25 .3065 -1.829 1.5/-0.5/0.0 -0.21 \$-0.51M A.Jones 0.75 .3592 1.2306 2.5/1.0/0.0 3.55 \$16.01M M.Kemp 0.75 .3611 1.338 1.5/0.5/0.1 2.58 \$11.75M Total 19.46 Pitchers Player IP FIP ERA PA Lg Ave ERA RAR WAR WAR\$ B.Penny 200 3.375 5.135 31.12 2.96 \$13.44M D.Lowe 210 4.105 5.135 24.05 2.29 \$10.48M C.Billingsley 180 4.161 5.135 19.48 1.86 \$8.56 H.Kuroda 180 4.067 5.135 21.37 2.04 \$9.36M E.Loaiza 127 4.641 5.135 6.98 0.66 \$3.32M J.Schmidt 82 3.810 5.135 12.08 1.15 \$5.46M H.Guo 78 3.918 5.135 10.55 1.00 \$4.82M T.Saito 66 2.579 5.135 18.75 1.79 \$8.26M J.Broxton 96 2.794 5.135 24.98 2.38 \$10.87M J.Biemel 73 3.967 5.135 9.48 0.90 \$4.37M S.Proctor 93 4.888 5.135 2.55 0.24 \$1.47M R.Seanez 65 4.031 5.135 7.98 0.76 \$3.74M Bullpen 471 7.07451 Rotation 979 10.95968 Total 1450 18.03419

Now let's take a look at how that stacks up with the rest of the NL West teams. Keep in mind that a team comprised only of replacement level players would win about 50 games, therefore to get the total number of wins we need to use the following simple formula (Team WAR = 50 + Offense WAR + Pitching WAR).
 NL West - WAR Team Hitting WAR Rotation WAR Bullpen WAR Total WAR Simulator DBacks 18.44 5.86 13.72 88.03 82.36 Dodgers 19.46 7.07 10.96 87.50 85.88 Rockies 18.67 4.46 6.81 79.95 81.68 Padres 18.03 3.76 8.06 79.84 82.76 Giants 8.26 3.82 9.41 71.49 75.16

## Tuesday, February 12, 2008

### AL West - Winter Rankings

AL West - Winter Rankings

 Now that the Erik Bedard trade is finalized I can finally finish and publish the AL West rankings. Not surprisingly the Angles finish at the top. Many pundits believe the Mariners are the team if any that could knock off the Angels, especially after the Bedard trade. Well, ZIPS really dislikes the Mariners offense and they finished a surprising last place in this study. The Rangers with a few upgrades to their offense finished a distant second with the A's, who many people have written off because of the players (Haren) they have traded away, finishing 3rd. Since this study does not take playing time or injury possibilities into account you may want to dock the A's a little bit for Rich Harden and the Angels a little bit for a possible pre-season injury to Kelvin Escobar.

 Team LAA TEX OAK SEA Total LAA NA .5183 .5252 .5466 .5272 TEX .4817 NA .5043 .5246 .5033 OAK .4748 .4957 NA .5243 .4988 SEA .4550 .4754 .4757 NA .4707

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)

Notes: For details of how this simulation study was ran, please see the NL West Rankings post.

## Thursday, February 07, 2008

### NL Central - Best Bullpens

Note: Updated 1/29/08
Time to rank the NL Central bullpens. The method I will use to rank NL Central bullpens is to give each team the same batting lineup and to start each simulated game in the top of the 7th inning with the score tied and the starting pitcher about to be relieved for each team in their opponents half of the 7th inning. This way the only difference between the two teams will be the bullpens. 5000 games are simulated home and away with each team facing each other. Winning percentages are added and then averaged. All games are played in a neutral park environment and of course 2008 ZIPS projections are being used. See the table below for results.

Note: The simulation may output slightly different results if I start in the 6th inning or 8th inning as opposed to the 7th inning. Bullpen depth charts from Rototimes and Yahoo were used in determining bullpen depth chart listings.

 Rank Team Total 1 STL .5345 2 HOU .5122 3 CHC .4987 4 MIL .4932 5 PIT .4848 6 CIN .4767

No time for an indepth breakdown of these results. If you'd like any further information from this sim study please leave a comment of email me.

## Saturday, February 02, 2008

### AL Central - Winter Rankings

AL Central - Winter Rankings

 Next up, the AL Central. The Detroit juggernaught is the pre-season favorite. The addition of Miguel Cabrera along with an already potent lineup and top notch pitching staff will make the Tigers difficult to beat. The Indians may have a chance to do so, but it will take some luck on their part. Sabathia and Carmona are a solid 1-2 but the bottom half of the Indians rotation is suspect. The Twins, with a healthy Liriano should win close to half their games, while the Royals and White Sox will be two of the worst teams in the American League.

 Team DET CLE MIN KC CWS Total DET NA .5188 .5268 .5714 .5665 .5459 CLE .4813 NA .5073 .5434 .5600 .5230 MIN .4732 .4927 NA .5419 .5370 .5112 KC .4286 .4566 .4681 NA .5021 .4639 CWS .4335 .4401 .4630 .4979 NA .4586

Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
VS
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)