Friday, February 28, 2014

MLB 2014 Odds To Win World Series


World Series Odds as of 3/1/2014

RankTeamOdds to 1
1Dodgers6.5
2Tigers9
3Cardinals10
4Red Sox12
5Yankees12
6Rays12
7Nationals12
8Giants16
9Rangers16
10Athletics18
11Braves20
12Angels20
13Reds22
14Pirates28
15Mariners28
16Orioles33
17Royals33
18Phillies33
19Blue Jays33
20Indians40
21Diamondbacks50
22Cubs50
23White Sox50
24Brewers50
25Padres50
26Mets66
27Rockies75
28Marlins100
29Twins100
30Astros200

Source: Bovada

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Best Lineup - Boston Red Sox


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Boston Red Sox.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics | Astros
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                 Red Sox 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections
K%BB%AVEOBPSLGOPSwOBA
Shane Victorino13.4%6.6%0.2690.3310.4200.7510.331
Dustin Pedroia11.1%9.3%0.2850.3520.4250.7770.340
David Ortiz15.5%12.9%0.2960.3860.5520.9380.377
Mike Napoli30.5%12.2%0.2410.3420.4660.8080.350
Xander Bogaerts23.6%8.0%0.2670.3310.4290.7600.333
Daniel Nava20.8%8.8%0.2570.3440.3840.7280.322
Jonny Gomes26.9%11.4%0.2360.3350.4080.7430.327
Jackie Bradley23.3%8.4%0.2450.3220.3750.6970.308
Will Middlebrooks26.0%5.2%0.2490.2910.4250.7160.312
A.J. Pierzynski15.4%2.9%0.2670.2970.4300.7270.312


See the results after the jump

Friday, February 21, 2014

Best Lineup - Houston Astros


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Houston Astros.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                 Astros 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections
K%BB%AVEOBPSLGOPSwOBA
Dexter Fowler28.3%13.7%0.2470.3540.3820.7360.328
L.J. Hoes16.7%8.4%0.2710.3370.3660.7030.313
Jason Castro24.9%10.8%0.2560.3370.4390.7760.335
Chris Carter33.8%11.4%0.2280.3190.4610.7800.340
Marc Krauss30.1%10.3%0.2130.2980.3690.6670.296
Robbie Grossman27.1%11.2%0.2280.3210.3300.6510.289
Jonathan Villar27.8%7.3%0.2350.2950.3560.6510.287
Jose Altuve12.5%5.1%0.2850.3230.3840.7070.308
Matt Dominguez15.8%5.3%0.2490.2940.3950.6890.300
Jesus Guzman22.8%8.5%0.2490.3180.4160.7340.320
George Springer31.1%9.9%0.2370.3190.4390.7580.335

See the results after the jump

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Best Lineup - Los Angeles Dodgers


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Los Angeles Dodgers.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results.  For NL teams it is always better to bat your pitcher eighth but I am not even going to go there in this exercise as I know there is a 0% chance of a MLB manager actually doing that.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers

Dodgers 2014 Hitting ZIPS Projections:
K%BB%AVEOBPSLGOPSwOBA
Matt Kemp24.8%8.6%0.2740.3390.4730.8120.342
Yasiel Puig19.7%8.5%0.2840.3540.4850.8390.359
Hanley Ramirez17.3%8.6%0.2760.3420.4860.8280.357
Adrian Gonzalez17.0%8.0%0.2820.3390.4530.7920.335
Carl Crawford16.5%5.2%0.2660.3080.4120.7200.314
Alexander Guerrero14.4%7.5%0.2590.3240.3860.7100.313
Juan Uribe20.5%6.1%0.2420.2930.3900.6830.297
A.J. Ellis18.3%11.2%0.2440.3370.3670.7040.306
Andre Ethier19.5%9.8%0.2610.3400.4050.7450.319
Scott Van Slyke25.1%9.7%0.2490.3250.4200.7450.325

See the results after the jump

Monday, February 10, 2014

Exportable 2014 MLB Schedule


Something that is difficult to find on the internet is an excel download file of the 2014 MLB Schedule.  I have taken the time to write a script that takes the 2014 MLB Schedule and converts it to an easy to use CSV file and uploaded it to google docs.  The file is free to download and can be found at the following link.

Here is the format that the file is in

Game ID,Year,Month,Day,Time,Away,Home

1,2014,3,22,4:00am,Dodgers,D-backs
2,2014,3,22,10:00pm,Dodgers,D-backs
3,2014,3,30,8:05pm,Dodgers,Padres
4,2014,3,31,1:05pm,Cubs,Pirates
5,2014,3,31,1:08pm,Royals,Tigers
6,2014,3,31,1:10pm,Nationals,Mets
7,2014,3,31,2:05pm,Phillies,Rangers
8,2014,3,31,2:10pm,Braves,Brewers
9,2014,3,31,3:05pm,Red Sox,Orioles
10,2014,3,31,4:10pm,Twins,White Sox
.
.
.
2428,2014,9,28,4:10pm,Angels,Mariners
2429,2014,9,28,4:10pm,Rockies,Dodgers
2430,2014,9,28,4:10pm,Cardinals,D-backs

Please keep in mind that game times and dates will be changing due to rain and I will not be maintaining these changes.


Friday, February 07, 2014

Best Lineup - Milwaukee Brewers


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Milwaukee Brewers.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump

Monday, February 03, 2014

Best Lineup - Oakland Athletics


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Oakland Athletics.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump