Sunday, January 05, 2014

Best Lineup - Miami Marlins

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Miami Marlins.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres

See the results after the jump...

                 Best Lineups via Simulator
vs RHPvs LHP
12B-Rafael FurcalLF-Christian Yelich
2LF-Christian Yelich3B-Casey McGehee
31B-Garrett Jones2B-Rafael Furcal
4RF-Giancarlo StantonRF-Giancarlo Stanton
5CF-Marcell OzunaCF-Marcell Ozuna
6C-Jarrod SaltalamacchiaSS-Adeiny Hechavarria
73B-Casey McGehee1B-Ed Lucas
8SS-Adeiny HechavarriaC-Jarrod Saltalamacchia
9Pitchers SpotPitchers Spot

Typical Lineup via MLBDepthCharts:
Furcal - Yelich - Stanton - Jones/Lucas - Saltalamacchia - Ozuna - McGehee - Hechavarria - Pitcher

The simulator matches the Marlins typical lineup vs RHP for the most part with a few players moved one spot up or down in the lineup.  The simulator likes Giancarlo Stanton batting fourth instead of third with Marcell Ozuna following him in the lineup.  The lineup against LHP sees Yelich moved up to leadoff and the table setters of Casey McGehee and Rafael Furcal stationed in front of Stanton.  Adeiny Hechavarria moves up from 8th to 6th against LHP in the only other significant move.

Note:     Keep in mind I used the depth charts at MLBDepthCharts as my guide.  I am aware that the Marlins may choose a different platoon partner or maybe none at all for Garrett Jones.

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