Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cleveland Indians. In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers. I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest. For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections. I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible. Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds
See the results after the jump
Best Lineups via Simulator
|vs RHP||vs LHP|
|1||2B-Jason Kipnis||LF-Michael Brantley|
|2||CF-Michael Bourn||2B-Jason Kipnis|
|3||DH-Carlos Santana||DH-Carlos Santana|
|4||1B-Nick Swisher||1B-Nick Swisher|
|5||LF-Michael Brantley||RF-Ryan Raburn|
|6||RF-David Murphy||SS-Asdrubal Cabrera|
|7||SS-Asdrubal Cabrera||CF-Michael Bourn|
|8||3B-Lonnie Chisenhall||C-Yan Gomes|
|9||C-Yan Gomes||3B-Mike Aviles|
Most likely lineup from MLBDepthCharts:
Bourn - Swisher - Kipnis - Santana - Brantley - Cabrera - Murphy - Gomes - Chisenhall
vs RHP - Michael Bourn is the fastest member of the Indians and the person a traditional lineup would have batting leadoff, but the simulator gives that honor to a better hitter who also has good speed in Jason Kipnis. Bourn's speed still plays well near the top of the lineup as the simulator slots him in the second spot behind Kipnis. The advantage of batting Kipnis ahead of Bourn was very slight, but there was an advantage nonetheless. Carlos Santana the Indians best all around hitter slots third in the lineup and Nick Swisher brings the home run bat to the cleanup spot. Michael Brantley then slots in fifth providing a little middle of the order speed on the bases for David Murphy who bats sixth to knock in. The bottom third of the lineup is made up of the lowest on base percentage hitters in Asdrubal Cabrera (7th), Lonnie Chisenhall (8th) and Yan Gomes (9th). The lineup is pretty solid as everyone except for Bourn is somewhat of a threat to knock the ball out of the park.
David Murphy and Lonnie Chisenhall drop out of the starting lineup for Ryan Raburn and Mike Aviles (RH). While it is a close call, the simulator shoots Michael Brantley up to the top of the lineup vs LHP. My guess is that it does not like all of the strikeouts from Bourn. Following Brantley is the one-two punch of Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana. Nick Swisher hits cleanup again. Ryan Raburn's right handed power bat hits fifth, followed by Asdrubal Cabrera who moves up from seventh to sixth vs LHP. The simulator then slots Michael Bourn into the seventh position in the lineup, followed by the power hitting catcher who doesn't draw too many walks. Mike Aviles, clearly the worst hitter in this lineup bats ninth.