Monday, September 30, 2013

Rays vs Indians - AL WildCard Simulation Results




Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankRaysIndiansOccurrences RankRaysIndiansOccurrences
11251522 51744913
22349197 52184537
32140859 53474490
43237421 54284489
53434646 55754367
60133286 56704194
73129224 57763688
81328554 58573665
91027262 59823628
104326146 60083622
110224932 61383618
124224098 62813548
132023317 63833207
142422288 64482944
151421749 65292924
160321501 66192862
174520662 67842806
184119846 68802432
193017980 69092369
200416730 70852320
215215502 71782310
225315466 72392275
235415170 73922150
241515155 74582142
252514991 75911953
263513935 76861876
275113542 77931857
284013080 781101817
290511160 79491691
305610599 802101689
312610465 81681580
32169981 82871574
33629567 83941538
34639494 840101438
35509451 85901417
36618906 863101403
37368746 87591276
38648548 88951254
39068087 891021199
40657614 904101091
41467497 911111057
42176849 922111053
43276653 931011042
44606204 94961038
45726042 951031016
46375817 96104903
47715667 9789900
48735553 9869875
49075511 99311860
50675050 10097819

Rays vs Rangers - AL WildCard Play-In Game Simulation Results


Sunday, September 29, 2013

The Braves Have Only Seen The Piece Of Crap Dodgers Team


The Braves and Dodgers faced each other seven times during the regular season with the Braves winning 5 out of 7 games.  All seven games were back when the Dodgers were a crappy team.  The Braves never had to face Kershaw and only had to face Greinke once.  A game the Dodgers won 5-0.  Below is a list of the seven games, showing the starting pitching matchup for each game and the Vegas win probabilities for each game.

@ATL May 17th, Loss 5-8, Ryu vs Maholm, Braves 58.1%
@ATL May 18th, Loss 1-3, Capuano vs Medlen, Braves 62.9%
@ATL May 19th, Loss 2-5, Magill vs Minor, Braves 64.3%
@LAD June 6th, WIN 5-0, Hudson vs Greinke, Braves 50.4%
@LAD June 7th, WIN 2-1, Maholm vs Ryu, Dodgers 52.5%
@LAD June 8th, LOSS 1-2, Medlen vs Fife, Braves 56.2%
@LAD June 9th, LOSS 1-8, Minor vs Magill, Braves 61.8%

Reds vs Pirates - NL WildCard Game Simulation Results




Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankRedsPiratesOccurrencesRankRedsPiratesOccurrences
1126277951474008
2015749752183851
3234842353083791
4214204454673646
5023951855743619
6103624756283512
7133346457813424
8323181658823336
9342976859752944
10032926860572871
11202745761832842
12312651062802773
13142398563382708
14242312064192551
15041997865092516
16431980266762456
17421944867842195
18301784168912144
19411711569292139
20451620970922025
21251587271481994
22151503972581704
23051377773391684
24401316874931664
25351302175851652
26521265876901639
275111838771101540
285311713780101487
29541072179781484
3016989880941341
3106976881861331
32509224822101263
3326901783681261
34368391841011254
3562812485491194
36568003861021140
37617920873101064
3863711888103995
3946650389100986
401763629087958
416063459195941
426462389259924
4307620493111912
4427553094011842
4571535895104790
4665531296211781
4772505497410752
483745239869736
4973438999111722
5070428610096702

Friday, September 27, 2013

Playoff Simulations


For those five or six people who read my simulation charts. I will not be simulated any Dodgers games the final weekend of the season and instead focus on getting all of the rosters, depth charts and statistics for the 10 playoff bound teams so I can simulate every post-season game for all teams.

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDodgersGiantsOccurrences RankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12348604 51605232
21245598 52715184
33437888 53185137
43236676 54284970
52135611 55754792
61329105 56384351
74328068 57764307
83126208 58574306
90125157 59083697
102424378 60823580
114223848 61293515
124523614 62483461
131422556 63833422
140220594 64193404
151019987 65703253
160319513 66843093
174118756 67812982
182018238 68392894
192517482 69852676
205417323 70782668
215316343 71582585
223515970 72092534
231515917 731102396
245215610 742102384
250415202 75492346
263015192 76862201
275112995 773102076
285612596 78922045
292611862 79932008
304011590 80801979
313610694 81681942
321610533 82871865
330510404 83941785
346310029 840101731
35629908 85911665
36649485 86591606
37659077 872111584
38468863 881111538
39618417 89951426
40508162 904101407
41067538 913111377
42277512 92961203
43177383 930111145
44376956 94891126
45736120 95691120
46676119 96901078
47726119 971021070
48475561 982121046
49745401 991031017
50075370 1005101009

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/26



Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/25


RankDodgersGiantsOccurences RankDodgersGiantsOccurences
12344324 51055874
23439783 52835838
31235929 53825742
43235098 54575477
54330421 55815078
62128783 56175008
74527704 57845001
84226086 58704972
93125107 59854162
101322149 60064150
112421456 61384143
124120909 62284125
135420535 63784032
145320245 64483830
155219323 65923568
160116813 66183515
175616608 67933362
181416418 68863289
193516266 69583251
205116144 70803090
212015135 71913037
222514783 72942937
233014609 73072925
241013852 74392777
256213723 75292771
266313611 76872758
270213046 77682560
284013037 78492457
296412661 79952450
306511796 80192374
316111731 81081956
320311727 821021955
331511330 83591920
343610492 84961904
355010407 851031889
364610167 862101871
37269751 87901863
38729322 883101820
39739231 891041763
40048627 90891713
41678590 911011686
42748196 92691544
43717954 931101537
44607541 944101535
45167306 95971467
46756929 96091384
47376406 971051380
48276273 983111262
49476054 99981260
50765993 100791250

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/25


Monday, September 23, 2013

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDodgersGiantsOccurences RankDodgersGiantsOccurences
1234836 5147526
2124460 5276493
3343818 5328469
4323688 5475463
5213485 5507457
6432750 5682451
7312740 5738425
8012694 5857409
9132660 5918406
10452449 6070402
11422443 6181398
12242240 6283372
13102037 6384327
14412028 6448318
15141993 6508288
16021970 6678284
17201946 6739280
18031730 6829274
19301719 6919272
20531707 7085264
21521678 7193261
22541641 7258256
23251586 7380242
24351478 7492229
25511466 7509228
26401378 7694227
27151364 7749222
28561307 7886219
29041289 79110217
30621121 8087217
31631116 8191215
32261032 82210202
33611020 8368183
34641013 84310181
3536997 85211159
3650986 8695154
3716936 87102149
3865926 8890148
3946888 89410142
4005849 9059142
4173700 91010138
4272687 92103134
4360680 9396122
4427663 94104122
4571662 95111120
4637654 9689117
4767627 9769115
4806622 98311110
4917622 99101106
5074611 10097100

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/24



Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/17


RankDodgersDbacksOccurences
13430054
22327131
34526857
44321402
55620668
63219537
75418841
81217917
95316711
104216662
112416447
123515302
136514517
146714384
155214090
166414056
171313712
182513491
196313429
202112870
213112676
224612532
231411997
243611942
254111522
266210999
277410560
287510392
292610201
307610089
31739728
32159524
33789442
34519435
35478948
36578636
37378557
38728485
39618068
40277504
41857456
42847430
43167332
44037280
45837131
46026782
47016734
48866673
49486551
50046530

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/17



Sunday, September 15, 2013

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/16


RankDodgersDbacksOccurences
13434548
22332749
34528844
44323591
53222969
61222722
75621137
85419385
94218953
102418284
115317730
122116186
133516183
141315772
153115741
165215517
172514373
186413782
194113779
201413737
216513733
226713547
236313507
244612176
253611837
266211355
271511090
282610871
295110838
307410098
31019930
32759397
33739266
34039143
35028940
36768934
37378592
38618396
39728382
40478372
41788084
42308072
43167980
44047957
45207904
46577843
47277811
48406796
49106782
50836668

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 9/16



Giants vs Dodgers - Ides of September Simulation Results



Friday, September 13, 2013

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/14



Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/13


RankGiantsDodgersOccurences
11263299
22352536
30150326
42141940
53433962
63233754
71033173
80232807
91331662
103127540
112026626
120326284
131423742
142422838
154321664
163020132
174220101
180419701
194118379
204518303
211516011
222515827
234013916
240513366
253513000
265212842
275312185
285112170
295411487
301610093
31269637
32069113
33508828
34568712
35368378
36627897
37617513
38637149
39176512
40646427
41466241
42606058
43076011
44275937
45655528
46374871
47714848
48724718
49734394
50184304

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/13




Thursday, September 12, 2013

Giants vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/12


RankGiantsDodgersOccurences
12349062
21244716
33439692
43229432
51328923
62126815
72425889
84525782
90124716
101424574
114323729
120221391
130320853
143119975
152519550
164219440
171517824
183517500
190417450
205415485
214114909
225614672
235314606
241014332
255213627
262013048
272612720
283612229
290512228
301611703
313010989
325110501
334610238
34639828
35649562
36629241
37659083
38068996
39408304
40278255
41178207
42677497
43377418
44617288
45476553
46726313
47736274
48076139
49505961
50745888

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/12


Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/11


RankDbacksDodgersOccurences RankDbacksDodgersOccurences
11255635 51744984
22352368 52474821
33437529 53184266
40137486 54284093
52135655 55754015
63232721 56823909
71331762 57703821
80228109 58813750
93126601 59573662
102425030 60833491
110323687 61383447
121423535 62763243
134323120 63083241
141022876 64842811
154221895 65482724
164521886 66802619
172020214 67192574
184118170 68292526
192517119 69922474
200416635 70852453
213016274 71912337
221515680 72782283
233515518 73932254
245214408 74392213
255314196 75582200
265413428 76092036
275112547 77861847
280512279 78941803
294012035 79901758
305611259 80681738
311610453 81491597
322610256 821011595
33369730 831021551
34629279 841101507
35638862 852101503
36618360 86871457
37068194 87951360
38508120 881031343
39468115 893101246
40647890 90591222
41656796 910101162
42176749 921041120
43276689 93961092
44605888 941001067
45725824 954101029
46375646 9689957
47715630 97112921
48735379 9869907
49675305 99111886
50075187 100211876

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/11



Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Score 9/10


RankDbacksDodgersOccurences
1234350
2343684
3123581
4452765
5322702
6132424
7432385
8212336
9242288
10422012
11311964
12141959
13011811
14351756
15541742
16251712
17561645
18531596
19031570
20411562
21521557
22021426
23151386
24361265
25041230
26631196
27201193
28511167
29261156
30641152
31101120
32651112
33301111
34621092
35461068
3616991
3767960
3861905
3940896
4005881
4173866
4272825
4374806
4427746
4537743
4647736
4717723
4875720
4950699
5071667

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/10



Sunday, September 08, 2013

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDbacksDodgersOccurences
1235084
2124358
3344154
4133058
5322987
6242737
7452728
8212599
9142499
10432474
11012222
12032071
13252029
14022024
15422008
16311980
17351873
18151777
19541600
20041583
21561569
22531483
23261422
24411402
25161342
26521340
27101323
28361309
29051266
30201237
31461120
32301053
33511039
3463968
3564945
3606935
3727924
3817896
3965888
4062859
4137828
4240785
4367738
4447692
4561664
4607644
4773631
4874628
4972596
5028568

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/9



Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/8


RankDodgersRedsOccurences
11250429
22345914
32142771
43237248
50134035
63131524
73431169
81030495
92028629
101324673
114224457
124324072
133023726
144122922
150222112
162419466
174018166
184518160
195216488
201416403
215116289
220315586
235315128
245413681
255013152
262512335
273512010
286211443
296111440
300410126
311510002
32639961
33609900
34569501
35648325
36718075
37727573
38267452
39367328
40707240
41657063
42466632
43056542
44736520
45166511
46815668
47745270
48825210
49805104
50674785

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/8




Friday, September 06, 2013

Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/7


RankDodgersRedsOccurrences
12343981
21243058
33433078
43232574
52132468
61327599
70125420
84324588
93123114
102422801
114221417
120220983
131420684
144520561
150318918
161018659
172017097
184116940
192516169
205315489
215415307
223514968
235214666
241514288
250414222
263013422
275612122
285111994
292610736
303610322
310510301
326310278
334010124
34169975
35629808
36649412
37468768
38658695
39618258
40067656
41177545
42277469
43507329
44376889
45726697
46736681
47676484
48476157
49745984
50715834

Pitching Matchup: Zack Greinke vs Mat Latos

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/7



Dodgers vs Reds - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores


RankDodgersRedsOccurences
12337165
23434584
33230131
41228824
54326731
64525742
72123818
84222326
93120921
102419729
115419273
121318956
135318399
144117044
155217042
165616586
173516029
181414546
192514403
205113296
216313278
226412698
236212485
240112433
256512072
262011849
273011607
283611255
294611135
300210731
311010478
321510213
336110072
34039949
35679793
36269745
37409645
38739154
39729093
40748752
41507842
42757767
43717641
44477623
45047384
46767357
47377335
48167325
49276870
50576768

Note: 1 Million simulations ran.

Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/6




Thursday, September 05, 2013

How Important Is Playoff Home Field Advantage For The Dodgers


A post from Mike Scoscia's Tragic Illness titled 'Does The Best Record In The League Matter' got me thinking about a good way to measure this using math. Hey, opinions are great but if you know a little bit about me, you would know that I need to know the probabilities.

So what I did was assign a string of probabilities for the Dodgers winning the NLDS, NLCS and World Series. Now, I am going to assume in this exercise that the Dodgers are either the #1 or #2 seed in the National League. It is of course very possible that the Dodgers get the #3 seed, but let's save that scenario for a later date.

I kept the probabilities of the Dodgers winning the NLDS and World Series constant and then set a game by game win probability for each of the seven games the Dodgers and Braves would play each other in the NLCS. One set of probabilities for the Dodgers having HFA and one set for the Braves having HFA. The accuracy of the probabilities that I set aren't all that important. The important part is adjusting the NLCS games by 9% (assuming a HFA of 4.5% in this exercise) on a game by game basis. From these seven NLCS win probabilities I can then run this through a simple Monte Carlo simulation to get a NLCS series win probability.

The table below will show you my findings.

LAN HFAATL HFA
NLDS0.640.64
NLCS G10.650.56
NLCS G20.620.53
NLCS G30.470.56
NLCS G40.450.54
NLCS G50.560.65
NLCS G60.620.53
NLCS G70.560.47
NLCS Winner0.6350.607
W.S.0.50.5
W.S. Champion20.32%19.43%

For the data above you can see that given the series and game win probabilities that I used, there is less than a one percent difference in chances of winning the World Series based on having the #1 or #2 seed in the MLB playoffs. I think the numbers I used are pretty accurate though, as Vegas has the Dodgers chances of winning the World Series at between 19-20 percent. Anyways, the final number doesn't really matter. What matters is the difference between the chances of winning the World Series with the #1 or #2 seed. Is a cost of 0.89% to your World Series champion probability a big deal or not? I would say no it isn't when you are balancing that out with properly getting your team ready for the post-season.

Note: NLCS Winner was computed with Monte Carlo simulation (10 Million simulations).

Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 9/4


RankDodgersRockiesOccurrences RankDodgersRockiesOccurrences
13426029 51856685
24524929 52186631
32322290 53036202
45621096 54596186
56716201 55046161
64316107 56846008
75415617 573105845
83515375 582105809
92414934 59195744
103213536 60695680
112513498 61725617
126513258 62515489
134613215 634105452
141213132 64055443
153613104 65835359
165312426 66025125
176411614 67065036
181311484 68795030
192611370 695104829
207811224 70964712
214211190 713114610
221411102 72984598
233710635 731104596
244710583 749104559
255710340 75954547
267610221 76974546
271510134 772114512
28639952 78824500
29279716 79014488
30759281 80074451
31529177 81614428
32748833 82944363
33168827 834114322
34388769 846104194
35488419 85934077
36288140 86083961
37218101 877103723
38588092 885113720
39177659 89713597
40317503 901113551
41687492 913123493
42897443 92923479
43877289 932123361
44737251 944123341
45627191 951053265
46397136 96093230
47296937 971043203
48866823 988103165
49496730 991063135
50416708 1001073118

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/4



Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/3


RankDodgersRockiesOccurrences
12336251
23433412
31228272
43226103
54525437
64324351
72120811
84219816
92419773
101319703
115418593
123117402
135317370
145616890
155215893
161415713
173515171
184114697
192514436
200113227
216313162
226412854
236512293
246212006
255111833
260211817
270311616
281511597
293610737
304610344
312610278
32209901
33679851
34739733
35109522
36049413
37749351
38309209
39619027
40729006
41168321
42758173
43408084
44767499
45717085
46377071
47277068
48476992
49056918
50836899

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/3



Sunday, September 01, 2013

Dodgers vs Rockies - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/2


RankDodgersRockiesOccurrences
12332066
23429458
33228434
41226169
54324367
62123642
74223432
83122532
94521721
104120776
115219516
125318610
135117805
145416949
156215791
163015773
174015138
186315005
196114836
205614340
212014244
222414197
231313170
247212918
255012831
266412816
277112579
280111753
297311529
301011487
316011462
323511180
336511070
348110146
358210046
36749791
37709657
38149322
39259211
40838768
41678658
42028379
43807869
44927774
45917693
46757624
47467511
48847105
49366839
50936586

Dodgers vs Rockies - Simulation Results 9/2




Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 9/1


RankPadresDodgersOccurrences
11270182
22360577
30148994
42140227
53438878
61336949
70234253
83233789
91028401
100327852
111426922
122426373
133125418
142022441
154321318
164520652
170420307
184218573
193017981
202517879
211517845
224116626
233514803
240514334
254011995
261611834
275411124
285310895
292610791
305210559
310610075
32519809
33569426
34369066
35177848
36467122
37276884
38506853
39076567
40626105
41635701
42615649
43645399
44375310
45655194
46184885
47604456
48284425
49084236
50474141

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/1