Showing posts with label Dodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dodgers. Show all posts

Thursday, February 26, 2015

LA Dodgers 2015 Preview

As the 2015 Major League Baseball season approaches, signs point to this year as a good season to be a LA Dodgers fan. The organization made the move to bring in former Oakland Athletics’ GM, Farhan Zaidi back in November, and are primed for another run this coming season.

The new general manager, along with the new president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman have had a very active off season thus far for their new club. After letting disgruntled shortstop Hanley Ramirez leave in free agency, they also agreed to pay $30 million of Matt Kemp’s salary in order to send the temperamental outfielder south to the San Diego Padres. In addition to those moves, they also traded for shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Howie Kendrick, two solid veterans with high character qualities that will pay dividends in the locker room. They also made a couple moves that many considered questionable, like the signing of Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, who are both talented pitchers but who have struggled with injuries throughout most their careers. Regardless, both should help bolster the back end of the Dodgers rotation this season.

Besides the new additions, LA is also returning some of the biggest star players in the game, Clayton Kershaw and Yasiel Puig. Kershaw is well on his way to becoming a living legend as he became only the third starting pitcher in the history of the game to lead their league in ERA for four straight seasons, and there’s little reason to doubt that he can make this season his fifth straight in leading the league in ERA.

Backing up Kershaw in the outfield is arguably the most dynamic player in the game today, Yasiel Puig. The exciting and explosive Cuban-born player continues to be one of the most entertaining players in the league. With his rocket arm that can throw runners out at home from the warning track, his blazing speed which makes any gap single into a potential double, and his acrobatic catches he makes on a routine basis, Puig is quickly becoming one of the best all-around players in the game.

With some new faces running the show this season for the Dodgers, and some solid additions to their club, the Dodgers are once again expected to be right in the thick of things come playoff time of the 2015 baseball season. Plenty of story lines to look forward to this year, especially Kershaw’s attempt to go for his fifth straight season leading the league in ERA. It’s a great year to be a fan of LA Dodgers baseball, and we look forward to another successful campaign for the upcoming season.

This article was brought you by the handicapping experts at Sports Information Traders. For 2015 MLB Picks and predictions as well as sports betting tips to help you get through this years Major League Baseball season.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Dodgers Fantasy Outlook 2015

Author: Matt Smith

With one of the highest payrolls in the game, the Los Angeles Dodgers should be pretty competitive for the foreseeable future. However, for a franchise that has not won a World Series in over 25 years, being competitive is not enough. They have made some changes heading into the 2015 season to their roster, and the hope is that it is enough for regular and postseason success.

Even though they have a lot of fantasy baseball talent last season, nothing seemed to really click with the franchise consistently. They would play well in spurts, but then they would go on a cold streak. About the only dependable player on the roster was Clayton Kershaw, and ironically he became inconsistent as soon as the postseason began.

Andrew Feldman was brought in to help make better decisions in the front office for the Los Angeles Dodgers. With seemingly unlimited funds compared to what he was working with in Tampa Bay, it will be interesting to see what type of deals he pulls off in the future. Right away, he decided to go after veteran players who have championship pedigrees. Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick can still provide value in fantasy baseball, but they will be just as important in the locker room.

Joc Pederson might not be new to the franchise, but he will now take over as the new everyday center fielder for the franchise. Many look at him as one of the top youngsters in the game, so he will need to hit the ground running in 2015. The franchise specifically made room for him by trading away some pretty decent talent, so it will be interesting to see what he does with a little bit more pressure on him.

Not only has losing been tough for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the postseason, but watching the San Francisco Giants win 3 World Series in the last 5 seasons stings. Hopefully, with some subtle moves, this team will be a bit better when the games matter most.


Sunday, January 04, 2015

How Good Is Don Mattingly At Setting The Batting Order

.
My simulator is a good tool for looking at optimal batting orders.  It can play tens of thousands and even millions (with a smaller set of games) of games while keeping the opponent static which can give you a good idea which lineups win more games.  Taking an idea from the "straight arrows" over at The Book Blog, I decided to take the 2014 Dodgers most common lineup, that one can find over at the Baseball Reference website and compare how well that lineup does against tens of thousands of other possible lineup permutations.  I did set some filters to cut down on the permutations, like I only looked at lineups where the pitcher hit 8th or 9th and where the best hitters didn't hit 8th or 9th and the worst hitters didn't hit 3rd or 4th etc...  I wanted to see how well Mattingly's most common lineup compared to what the simulator thought was the most optimal lineup.  Of course you can't expect any manager to be implementing the most optimal lineup but you also don't want him to be giving away fractions of wins each game that can add up over a 162 game season.  So down below, I list the Top 25 lineups along with the most common 2014 lineup in a table sorted by Wins/162 games.  I also list a table showing the frequency of where each player batted in each of the top 25 lineups.  I love the batting order frequency tables as they show you which players have a few dedicated positions in the order they should be hitting in and which players are more versatile in giving you an optimal lineup.  I used 2014 final season stats as the input projections for each hitter because that is for the most part what Don Mattingly went by.  And I did all the simulations with the opposing team using a right handed starting pitcher.

Before we begin, here is the most common 2014 Dodgers lineup.

Gordon-Puig-Gonzales-Kemp-Ramirez-Crawford-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher

                                                       Top 25 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Kemp-Gordon-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Ellis-Uribe-Pitcher0.000
2Gordon-Ellis-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kemp-Uribe-Pitcher0.059
3Gordon-Ellis-Crawford-Ramirez-Puig-Gonzalez-Kemp-Uribe-Pitcher0.060
4Gordon-Puig-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Crawford-Kemp-Uribe-Pitcher-Ellis0.090
5Gordon-Ellis-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Puig-Crawford-Kemp-Uribe-Pitcher0.108
6Puig-Crawford-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Kemp-Gordon-Ellis-Uribe-Pitcher0.163
7Ellis-Gordon-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kemp-Uribe-Pitcher0.218
8Ellis-Puig-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Crawford-Kemp-Uribe-Pitcher-Gordon0.226
9Gordon-Puig-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Kemp-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher-Ellis0.243
10Puig-Crawford-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Kemp-Gordon-Uribe-Pitcher-Ellis0.261
11Crawford-Kemp-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Puig-Gordon-Ellis-Uribe-Pitcher0.307
12Gordon-Puig-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Kemp-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher-Ellis0.316
13Ellis-Gordon-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Puig-Kemp-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.326
14Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Kemp-Gordon-Uribe-Pitcher-Ellis0.348
15Crawford-Puig-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Kemp-Gordon-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher0.379
16Kemp-Crawford-Ramirez-Gonzalez-Puig-Gordon-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher0.402
17Ellis-Puig-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Crawford-Kemp-Gordon-Uribe-Pitcher0.412
18Gordon-Ramirez-Kemp-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Ellis-Uribe-Pitcher0.430
19Gordon-Kemp-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher0.430
20Gordon-Ramirez-Kemp-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher0.456
21Gordon-Puig-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Kemp-Crawford-Ellis-Pitcher-Uribe0.513
22Ramirez-Gordon-Kemp-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher0.551
23Gordon-Ellis-Crawford-Ramirez-Puig-Gonzalez-Kemp-Pitcher-Uribe0.580
24Puig-Crawford-Kemp-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Gordon-Ellis-Uribe-Pitcher0.604
25Gordon-Ramirez-Kemp-Gonzalez-Puig-Ellis-Crawford-Urube-Pitcher0.613
55Gordon-Puig-Gonzalez-Kemp-Ramirez-Crawford-Uribe-Ellis-Pitcher0.837
.
And for comparison sake the worst lineup was 3.55 wins/162 games worst than the best lineup.
Worst: Ellis-Uribe-Puig-Kemp-Gonzalez-Ramirez-Crawford-Pitcher-Gordon
.
           Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Gordon1240007101
Puig3800140000
Gonzalez0091402000
Kemp225074500
Ramirez1391110000
Crawford3420311200
Uribe00000011112
Ellis440001655
Pitcher0000000817

.
Analysis:
So the simulator thinks that Mattingly left around 0.84 wins off the table over 162 games with his most common lineup.  I will leave that up to the reader if they think that is significant.  Keep in mind that one win (or WAR) is going for about $7 million dollars on the free agent market.

I think Mattingly's lineup is an above average one when using common and traditional methods for constructing a lineup.  A look at the Batting Order Frequency Table (BOF Table) does show what the simulator thinks are a few glaring mistakes though.  When we look at the BOF Table you will notice that a few players are more versatile in the lineup slot that they give the most value in.  Puig for example only slots into three locations... leadoff(3), second(8) and fifth(14) while players like Kemp and Ellis slot in to many more locations but not as frequently.  Let's walk through each player in Mattingly's lineup one at a time and look for strengths and weaknesses.

Player by Player Analysis:
Leadoff - Dee Gordon:  Mattingly has Dee Gordon in the leadoff spot and according to the simulator that is the best spot for him, though hitting 6th can be good as well as batting 2nd depending of course on the rest of the batting order makeup.  Nails it.

Second - Yasiel Puig:  Puig's best spot is hitting fifth where he can help rack up the RBIs but hitting second is also a good spot for Puig.  I think Mattingly does well on Puig's position in the order.  Good

Third - Adrian Gonzalez:  Just like with Puig, Mattingly has slotted Gonzalez into his second best spot in the batting order.  The simulator prefers Gonzalez hitting one spot lower which wouldn't ordinarily be that big of a deal as long as the person batting fourth in his place belonged there too.  Good

Cleanup - Matt Kemp:  The simulator thinks Kemp is many things but a cleanup hitter on this team is not one of them.  According to the simulator it is a big mistake to bat Kemp fourth.  There are many lineup positions that Kemp can slot into and you can still have a highly optimal lineup but fourth is not one of them.  Stink

Fifth - Hanley Ramirez:  Out of the top 25 lineups the simulator has Ramirez hitting fifth only once.  The simulator seems to like Gonzalez and Ramirez hitting in the 3rd/4th slots in either order making this another glaring mistake according to the sim.  The 4th and 5th spots in the lineup are probably not good spots to be making mistakes at.  Stink

Sixth - Carl Crawford:  Crawford also is pretty versatile in where he slots in to the top 25 lineups and Mattingly gets back on the winning track as he nails this one.  Crawford hits 6th in 11 out of the top 25 most optimal lineups including three of the top five.  Nails it.

Seventh - Juan Uribe:  The simulator thinks that Uribe should hit seventh or eighth and that is exactly where Mattingly puts him.  Slow, low on base second tier power hitters are good for the bottom of the lineup as they tend to give you that last good chance to clear the bases before the black hole of the pitcher batting.  Nails it.

Eighth - A.J. Ellis:  Ellis like Kemp is able to slot in to many different lineup spots without causing carnage to the optimization of it.  Ellis is not a very good hitter but he still does bring a decent skill of drawing walks to the table, that is why you see him hitting at the top of the lineup a few times and ninth.  His poor hitting but good on base skills are a good fit for hitting 9th and moving the pitcher to 8th as he turns in to a quasi leadoff hitter in the 9th spot.  Good.

Ninth - Pitchers Spot:  The simulator has the pitcher hitting 9th in 17 out of 25 (68%) of the top lineups.  So there can be some value to hitting the pitcher eighth but you have to have the right personnel and batting order mix to make it work.  Nails it.
.
Overall, Mattingly does a pretty good job but the simulator thinks he made big mistakes in hitting Matt Kemp cleanup and Hanley Ramirez fifth and really with the tools that Mattingly has (instincts) you really wouldn't know this was a mistake.

.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs LHP) Part II

.
I am looking at best lineup vs LHP again for the Dodgers using my simulator.  This time i substituted out Carl Crawford for Scott Van Slyke and substituted Joc Pederson out for Chris Heisey for platoon advantages purposes.  There are a few surprises here, mainly so many highly ranked permutations liking Van Slyke hitting leadoff.  Van Slyke mashes left handed pitching with both a high OBP and SLG with average speed at best.  So this is not a result you would see using traditional lineup building methods.  Of course very little logic and analytical thinking is put into the traditional methods as you tend to see a lot of inertial reasoning behind the arguments of where prototypical hitters should bat in the lineup.  So with no further ado, here are the Top 50 lineups vs LHP with the listed substitutions above along with a list of how many times each of the 8 hitters appears in each lineup spot.

Previous best lineup posts
Best Lineup vs RHP | Best Lineup vs LHP, Part 1

                                                      Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Van Slyke-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0
2Van Slyke-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.012
3Van Slyke-Puig-Heisey-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.022
4Van Slyke-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.059
5Van Slyke-Heisey-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.066
6Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.086
7Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.087
8Van Slyke-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.145
9Rollins-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.163
10Van Slyke-Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.213
11Van Slyke-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.230
12Rollins-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Van Slyke-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.239
13Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.243
14Puig-Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.252
15Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.288
16Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.289
17Van Slyke-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.291
18Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.308
19Van Slyke-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.315
20Rollins-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.315
21Uribe-Van Slyke-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Heisey-Pitcher0.315
22Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Kendrick-Heisey-Pitcher0.321
23Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Heisey-Kendrick-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.323
24Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Van Slyke-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.340
25Puig-Gonzalez-Van Slyke-Kendrick-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.371
26Van Slyke-Rollins-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.382
27Puig-Kendrick-Heisey-Gonzalez-Rollins-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.399
28Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.401
29Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Heisey-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.408
30Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.427
31Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.460
32Puig-Kendrick-Heisey-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Van Slyke-Grandal-Pitcher0.468
33Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Heisey-Puig-Uribe-Van Slyke-Grandal-Pitcher0.475
34Van Slyke-Heisey-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.492
35Rollins-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.500
36Rollins-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.500
37Uribe-Puig-Van Slyke-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Heisey-Grandal-Pitcher0.514
38Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.514
39Rollins-Van Slyke-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.541
40Van Slyke-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Heisey-Pitcher0.548
41Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Van Slyke-Uribe-Heisey-Pitcher0.555
42Heisey-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.586
43Kendrick-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Grandal-Van Slyke-Heisey-Pitcher0.596
44Rollins-Gonzalez-Heisey-Kendrick-Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.626
45Uribe-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Van Slyke-Heisey-Pitcher0.630
46Van Slyke-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Heisey-Kendrick-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.643
47Puig-Van Slyke-Grandal-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Heisey-Uribe-Pitcher0.721
48Kendrick-Rollins-Van Slyke-Puig-Gonzalez-Heisey-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.744
49Puig-Van Slyke-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Uribe-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher0.749
50Puig-Van Slyke-Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Heisey-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher1.035
.
.
              Count By Lineup Spot
Player1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th
Van Slyke18125001140
Puig13141913000
Gonzalez0515255000
Kendrick658119920
Rollins997016720
Uribe335009219
Heisey1251451121
Grandal0044391020
.
.

Note: Each game/lineup simulated 100K times.
and Wins/162 is the number of wins you give up over a 162 game season by using the listed lineup vs the most efficient one (per the simulator).
.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs LHP)


Now I take a look at the Dodgers best lineup(s) vs left handed pitchers. I used the same 8 starters as I did when I looked at best lineups vs RHP. I may do this again putting some right handed bats in for a few of the left handed hitters. You may notice that the best lineup vs RHP is ranked 9th vs LHP.

Previous Post: 2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs RHP)

                                                  Top 100 Batting Orders
RankLineupWins Behind
1Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.000
2Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.136
3Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.471
4Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.473
5Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.531
6Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.549
7Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.661
8Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Uribe-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.667
9Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.675
10Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.689
11Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.692
12Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.724
13Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.739
14Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.763
15Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher0.765
16Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.771
17Pederson-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.792
18Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.799
19Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.804
20Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher0.816
21Uribe-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher0.820
22Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.825
23Crawford-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.826
24Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.834
25Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.834
26Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.844
27Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.847
28Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.859
29Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.878
30Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.880
31Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.891
32Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher0.897
33Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.910
34Rollins-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.936
35Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher0.940
36Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.943
37Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.944
38Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher0.944
39Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher0.944
40Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.957
41Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher0.969
42Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher0.972
43Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.978
44Crawford-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.988
45Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher0.991
46Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher0.995
47Crawford-Puig-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.995
48Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.996
49Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.009
50Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.009
51Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher1.014
52Pederson-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.027
53Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.043
54Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.048
55Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher1.055
56Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.055
57Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.077
58Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.092
59Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.100
60Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Pitcher1.106
61Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.124
62Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.129
63Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.144
64Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.149
65Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.150
66Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.165
67Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.166
68Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.166
69Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.171
70Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.173
71Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.183
72Pederson-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher1.189
73Kendrick-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Pitcher1.199
74Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.202
75Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.210
76Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher1.212
77Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.213
78Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.215
79Kendrick-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.223
80Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.225
81Rollins-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pederson-Pitcher1.226
82Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Pitcher1.231
83Crawford-Puig-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.256
84Pederson-Puig-Uribe-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.257
85Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.259
86Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.272
87Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.273
88Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Pitcher1.275
89Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.278
90Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher1.288
91Puig-Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Crawford-Pitcher1.288
92Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.296
93Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher1.309
94Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Pitcher1.317
95Rollins-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Crawford-Grandal-Uribe-Pitcher1.332
96Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.341
97Puig-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.348
98Crawford-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Pitcher1.354
99Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Grandal-Crawford-Pitcher1.367
100Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.377
.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

2015 Dodgers Best Lineup (vs RHP)


The Dodgers have made quite a few changes to their roster this month and I figured it would be a good idea to run the currently projected starters through my simulator to see which lineups it thought were the best.  First off, I looked at the best lineup vs RHP.  After a few iteration it became obvious that the lineups the simulator liked the most had the threesome of Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal hitting somewhere in the 3-4-5 spots in the lineup.  So in this exercise I took all the possible lineups with those three hitting in the 3-4-5 spots in any order with the added caveat of not allowing any left handed hitters to hit back to back (170 total permutations).  For input, I used 2015 Steamer projections.  I simulated each game 100,000 times.  While yes, there is a margin of error but you will definitely see what the simulator feels is the best lineups grouped near the top.  If you aren't familiar with it, my simulator simulates actual baseball games and takes pretty much everything you can imagine into account.  Keep in mind this is just an exercise and I am not advocating using these top lineups nor am I expecting the team to do so.  But I do believe that lineup construction is something that teams should worry about a little bit more as over the course of the season an NL team could easily add another win or two to their total.  As a side note, the lineup that MLB Depth Charts lists as the most likely lineup ranks #42.


                                                           Best Lineups
RankLineupWins Behind
1Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.00
2Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.33
3Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.40
4Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.43
5Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.44
6Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher0.48
7Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.52
8Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.58
9Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher0.63
10Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.66
11Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.67
12Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.68
13Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.70
14Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.81
15Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.83
16Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher0.83
17Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.85
18Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.91
19Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher0.91
20Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.92
21Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher0.92
22Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher0.93
23Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher0.94
24Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher0.95
25Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher0.98
26Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher0.99
27Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.03
28Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.05
29Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Uribe-Pitcher1.05
30Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher1.06
31Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.15
32Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.19
33Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.21
34Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Uribe-Pitcher1.23
35Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.26
36Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.29
37Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.30
38Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Uribe-Pitcher1.32
39Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.34
40Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.42
41Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.45
42Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.47
43Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.47
44Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher1.49
45Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.49
46Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.56
47Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.57
48Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.58
49Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.58
50Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher1.58
51Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.60
52Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.60
53Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.65
54Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.65
55Uribe-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher1.72
56Pederson-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.72
57Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.72
58Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.72
59Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.74
60Crawford-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher1.74
61Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Kendrick-Pitcher1.77
62Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.78
63Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.78
64Rollins-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.78
65Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.79
66Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.79
67Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.80
68Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher1.80
69Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.80
70Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher1.81
71Crawford-Kendrick-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Uribe-Pitcher1.81
72Uribe-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.82
73Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Pitcher1.84
74Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Rollins-Pitcher1.85
75Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher1.86
76Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Uribe-Rollins-Pitcher1.87
77Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.87
78Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher1.91
79Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher1.94
80Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.94
81Rollins-Kendrick-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.95
82Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.95
83Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher1.96
84Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puit-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher1.99
85Uribe-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.01
86Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.03
87Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher2.05
88Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.06
89Kendrick-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.07
90Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher2.09
91Pederson-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.10
92Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.11
93Kendrick-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.11
94Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.14
95Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.14
96Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.14
97Pederson-Kendrick-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.14
98Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Kendrick-Rollins-Pitcher2.15
99Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.16
100Uribe-Crawford-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.17
101Rollins-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.20
102Rollins-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.23
103Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher2.23
104Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.24
105Kendrick-Crawford-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.24
106Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.28
107Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.29
108Kendrick-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.32
109Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Pederson-Kendrick-Pitcher2.33
110Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.33
111Uribe-Rollins-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.34
112Rollins-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.35
113Pederson-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.35
114Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.35
115Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.36
116Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Crawford-Kendrick-Pitcher2.37
117Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.39
118Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Kendrick-Pitcher2.40
119Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.42
120Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.43
121Kendrick-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.47
122Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.47
123Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.49
124Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.49
125Uribe-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.50
126Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.52
127Kendrick-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.52
128Rollins-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.53
129Pederson-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.53
130Kendrick-Pederson-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.56
131Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Crawford-Pitcher2.57
132Kendrick-Uribe-Grandal-Gonzalez-Puig-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.60
133Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.63
134Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.63
135Uribe-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.64
136Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.66
137Crawford-Rollins-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.67
138Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.69
139Uribe-Rollins-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.70
140Rollins-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.70
141Kendrick-Pederson-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.71
142Pederson-Rollins-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.71
143Pederson-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Kendrick-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.73
144Uribe-Pederson-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.76
145Kendrick-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher2.77
146Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.77
147Pederson-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher2.78
148Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher2.79
149Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Grandal-Puig-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.79
150Rollins-Crawford-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.79
151Pederson-Kendrick-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Crawford-Rollins-Pitcher2.80
152Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher2.83
153Crawford-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.86
154Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher2.90
155Crawford-Kendrick-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Uribe-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.94
156Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.94
157Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher2.96
158Rollins-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.00
159Kendrick-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.00
160Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.01
161Pederson-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Uribe-Kendrick-Crawford-Pitcher3.03
162Uribe-Crawford-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.04
163Kendrick-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Pederson-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher3.05
164Crawford-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Rollins-Kendrick-Pederson-Pitcher3.12
165Pederson-Uribe-Puig-Gonzalez-Grandal-Kendrick-Rollins-Crawford-Pitcher3.12
166Crawford-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Kendrick-Pederson-Rollins-Pitcher3.16
167Crawford-Rollins-Puig-Grandal-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Uribe-Pederson-Pitcher3.21
168Kendrick-Uribe-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.31
169Uribe-Kendrick-Gonzalez-Puig-Grandal-Crawford-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.32
170Crawford-Uribe-Grandal-Puig-Gonzalez-Kendrick-Rollins-Pederson-Pitcher3.44

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 4 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersCardinalsClayton KershawShelby MillerDodgers3.922.7660.786.67


                                      Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1124414851055338
2234149052915095
3213862053754955
4323510754904731
5313149255924540
6343038156844019
7203019457274011
8102911258763885
9012810359373815
10302634860473596
11422534961933529
12412530462173481
13432442063063451
144021859641013286
15131945065853126
165119022661003098
17521884967573041
184518836681023019
19501739469942646
20241685770282496
21021666571782481
22531653472862383
235414567731032359
24611436574382322
25141352575182280
26621343776072261
276013409771112134
28631154278482015
290311246791102008
30351103480951972
312510801811121914
32561072082581872
33711054383871855
34709854841041703
3572967285291646
36649468861131553
3715882587391546
3865805588681449
3904786989961435
4073772990081426
41817302911211408
4280685392191396
4336684493491293
44826740941221289
45266625951201274
46746286961141210
47466189971051194
4816569898891134
4983539799591027
50675359100971018

Note 1 Million games simulated.
.

Monday, October 06, 2014

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 3 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total runs
DodgersCardinalsHyun-Jin RyuJohn LackeyDodgers4.193.4955.467.68

                                           Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1233882051836124
2123376552276086
3343326853056039
4323161754376034
5212881055475888
6432566056845319
7312517557575116
8422410958175106
9452384359804806
10412033160924778
11131901261854552
12241876862914522
13521829163784397
14531822564934183
15201802965064139
16541771666384125
17011704167284077
18301649268863729
19101636969483644
20511588470943557
21561507571183431
22141484072903281
23351415073873256
24401381874583254
252513560751023213
26631317876072988
276213141771012982
280212817781032861
29611212979682841
30641197880952827
31501139481292720
32651101782392704
330310364831042451
34151014884962374
3572987285492336
36369756861002267
3726913087192175
38739129881122070
3971911689892067
40609003901112027
4146892191081987
42678511921131876
43748319931051872
4404803294591863
4516735095971842
46757211962101802
47826870973101752
4870678898691752
49816642994101545
507662131001141544


Note: Based off of 1 million games simulated.
.

Friday, October 03, 2014

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLDS Game 2 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
CardinalsDodgersLance LynnZach GreinkeDodgers3.104.0363.25727.13


                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurrencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurrences
1234879851725686
2124613052745527
3343832053385360
4132909154085169
5012819455574980
6322662956754946
7212601357714623
8452584858764591
9242511159294503
10022396960194497
11142386261484250
12032208562604102
13432129763783833
14251951464833749
15311922065393733
16421854866093656
17041795067823631
18151755468583470
19351682169843444
205615098701103040
21101460671813005
225414223722102977
23411406673852967
24051403674492894
25531372175702691
26161292876862547
272012866770102459
282612832783102456
29521274579682456
30361211480932340
31061041281922240
32301024882942132
33511000083872127
3446960084592070
35279234851111945
36179133862111934
3763895987911862
38648693884101833
3962850289801802
4065833790951783
4137800091891694
42407863923111646
43677794930111591
4407760394691572
4561697695961471
46476924961031402
47186602971021352
48286319981121337
49505856995101305
507357491002121255

Chances of each team scoring X number of runs
Runs ScoredCardinalsDodgers
013.99%6.28%
117.27%11.66%
217.33%15.12%
314.72%15.90%
411.62%14.22%
58.57%11.43%
65.98%8.36%
74.04%5.85%
82.61%3.95%
91.62%2.65%
100.96%1.72%

Note: Based on 1 million games simulated

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLDS Game 1 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
CardinalsDodgersAdam WainwrightClayton KershawDodgers1.973.2769.7135.24


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurences
1013671151601531
2123655552471526
30227147530101353
4232624754721344
5032257855711331
6131991456381306
7211933357671306
8041689158731275
9101622559291201
103414714601101091
11141471161741071
1232136766257957
1305123086375903
14241169164011900
1520109946570897
1631107886648863
171596916739828
1806850268210769
194379796976744
202579007082740
214277917181722
224572347283709
2330666473111650
241666127484576
254165197558542
263555157649541
2707538177310517
282649767885507
2953423779211491
3040418580012457
315241538178454
321740748280430
335438258392409
3451381384112396
353637248591366
360834948686360
372731978793352
3856319488311349
391826868968336
4050248990410322
416224239159302
424624199287301
4363234493212293
446122679494293
4509215695013285
463721319690264
472820219795241
4864201698102224
496518199969218
50191718100411212

Note: Based off of 500,000 games simulated.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/15



AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSFave Win%Total RS
BrewersDodgersJimmy NelsonZach GreinkeDodgers2.9983.53359.25%6.531


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankBrewersDodgersOccurrencesRankBrewersDodgersOccurrences
12353145147510
21252475260496
33439255318491
42133775471486
53233325575436
61332665608428
70131865757421
82426905882386
90225065938383
101424626083367
114324206176362
120323816229356
134523466319350
143123296470322
154220746581311
161019186684303
172518936709275
180418026839274
194117556948248
202017407085248
213517157158242
221516507278233
235314967392224
245414957480214
2530143975110210
2652137976210209
270512037749208
285111767891207
292611637993185
3016113180310183
3156112581010176
323610718286176
33409848368162
34469098494159
35639038587153
366289086410137
37068148795136
386481488211135
392779289111131
40617699059130
41177679190126
426574392102120
435071193103117
440759394311116
453759295101112
467258796104106
47735509769103
48675419896102
4928524998994
507451810021288
.
Miscellaneous Notes:

1) The best defensive players on the Brewers are CF-Carlos Gomez, SS-Jean Segura and C-Jonathon Lucroy

2) Brewers 2B-Scooter Gennett can not hit left-handed pitching to save his life.  Rickie Weeks will hit for him if a LHP comes in to face him.

3) The Brewers have three former starting pitchers in their bullpen... Zach Duke (169 GS), Tom Gorzelanny (121 GS) and Marco Estrada (71 GS).

4) The Brewers have three holes in their bullpen... Marco Estrada, Jeremy Jeffress and Brandon Kintzler.

5) Brewers hitters do not draw very many walks... Lucroy and Reynolds are the only two who draw an average amount of walks.

6) Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson is probably better than projection systems currently give him credit for.



Friday, May 09, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsDodgersMadison BumgarnerPaul MaholmGiants4.004083.2891755.4487.29325



                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
12342595147586
21237065205572
33436995337563
43234065457559
52129285576533
64326935627506
73126885784504
84225685880467
94525005993462
104122876092454
111322006191445
125319596217421
130119586306400
142419586485388
155219356538375
165117976678372
175417796728345
183017136886320
192016086994316
201015737048287
213515387190287
221415297218280
2356148173102276
2402146174101273
256314517568266
266214377695264
2740143377103260
282513957858256
296113297907252
305012228087249
316412128139243
3203113682104230
336510888329214
3472108484100212
357110178596199
36159808619175
37469738749173
38609668808167
397393889111166
40369179089164
412687391105154
42048209259152
437480693112150
446773994113146
45827199569144
46817099697142
477067797110142
481667698310140
498367399210131
5075661100114119