Monday, April 30, 2012

May 1st Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHNCINJeff Samardzija vs Bronson ArroyoCIN59.92%63.87%TBD
CLECHAUbaldo Jimenez vs Chris SaleCHA55.46%55.25%TBD
MILSDShaun Marcum vs Edinson VolquezMIL52.27%48.38%TBD
MINLAAFrancisco Liriano vs Jerome WilliamsLAA59.92%62.81%TBD
OAKBOSJarrod Parker vs Felix DoubrontBOS61.83%58.74%TBD
PHIATLCole Hamels vs Brandon BeachyATL54.65%56.52%TBD
SEATBHector Noesi vs Matt MooreTB65.34%66.50%TBD
ARIWASTrevor Cahill vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS56.62%56.14%TBD
BALNYABrian Matusz vs Phil HughesNYA63.70%59.47%TBD
KCDETLuke Hochevar vs Rick PorcelloDETNA64.42%TBD
TEXTORNeftali Feliz vs Drew HutchisonTEX57.72%57.10%TBD
NYNHOUJohn Niese vs J.A. HappNYN55.26%58.07%TBD
PITSTLCharlie Morton vs Adam WainwrightSTL63.70%57.66%TBD
LANCOLTed Lilly vs Jhoulys ChacinCOL52.72%63.14%TBD
FLASFRicky Nolasco vs Matt CainSF59.92%54.34%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Sunday, April 29, 2012

April 30th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
MILSDRandy Wolf vs Joe WielandSD51.81%51.28%TBD
MINLAANick Blackburn vs C.J. WilsonLAA69.23%70.55%TBD
OAKBOSTom Milone vs Clay BuchholzBOS60.86%56.07%TBD
PITATLJames McDonald vs Mike MinorATL62.62%64.68%TBD
SEATBFelx Hernandez vs Jeremy HellicksonTB54.02%56.87%TBD
ARIFLAPat Corbin vs Mark BuehrleFLA61.01%61.88%TBD
BALNYAJason Hammel vs Hiroki KurodaNYA61.90%64.67%TBD
CHNPHIChris Volstad vs Vance WorleyPHI61.32%64.59%TBD
KCDETLuke Hochevar vs Duane BelowDET58.59%63.18%TBD
TEXTORYu Darvish vs Kyle DrabekTEX58.76%57.25%TBD
NYNHOUR.A. Dickey vs Bud NorrisNYN51.81%53.63%TBD
LANCOLAaron Harang vs Juan NicasioCOL57.17%64.04%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Saturday, April 28, 2012

April 29th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEErvin Santana vs Derek LoweCLE51.10%51.93%TBD
BOSCHAJosh Beckett vs Gavin FloydBOS53.81%51.38%TBD
CHNPHIMatt Garza vs Kyle KendrickCHN50.74%47.63%TBD
DETNYAMax Scherzer vs C.C. SabathiaNYA63.30%65.02%TBD
HOUCINJordan Lyles vs Mat LatosCIN64.97%73.14%TBD
PITATLKevin Correia vs Tim HudsonATL62.19%63.35%TBD
TBTEXDavid Price vs Derek HollandTEX54.65%57.85%TBD
WASLANGio Gonzalez vs Chris CapuanoWAS51.10%49.02%TBD
SEATORJason Vargas vs Henderson AlvarezTOR57.89%59.25%TBD
ARIFLAWade Miley vs Josh JohnsonFLA62.76%67.21%TBD
OAKBALBartolo Colon vs Tommy HunterBAL51.34%56.03%TBD
KCMINBruce Chen vs Jason MarquisKC52.49%45.11%TBD
MILSTLZach Greinke vs Jaime GarciaSTL53.16%50.12%TBD
NYNCOLJohan Santana vs Jamie MoyerCOL52.27%43.12%TBD
SDSFClayton Richard vs Madison BumgarnerSF61.83%62.93%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Friday, April 27, 2012

April 28th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEDan Haren vs Jeanmar GomezLAA56.80%57.19%TBD
BOSCHAJon Lester vs Jake PeavyCHA50.74%51.69%TBD
HOUCINLucas Harrell vs Johnny CuetoCIN65.93%70.55%TBD
PITATLErik Bedard vs Randall DelgadoATL57.89%51.11%TBD
TBTEXJeff Niemann vs Colby LewisTEX60.24%58.43%TBD
WASLANStephen Strasburg vs Chad BillingsleyWAS52.94%51.50%TBD
DETNYADrew Smyly vs Freddy GarciaNYA53.60%55.81%TBD
MILSTLMarco Estrada vs Kyle LohseSTL58.42%57.98%TBD
KCMINBruce Chen vs Jason MarquisKC52.72%47.17%TBD
SEATORKevin Millwood vs Brandon MorrowTOR63.70%63.37%TBD
CHNPHIRandy Wells vs Joe BlantonPHI58.07%58.86%TBD
OAKBALTyson Ross vs Wei-Yin ChenBAL58.93%63.72%TBD
ARIFLAIan Kennedy vs Anibal SanchezFLA54.65%57.91%TBD
NYNCOLDillon Gee vs Guillermo MoscosoCOLNA62.69%TBD
SDSFAnthony Bass vs Tim LincecumSF62.48%63.24%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Thursday, April 26, 2012

April 27th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEJered Weaver vs Justin MastersonLAA57.36%49.07%TBD
BOSCHADaniel Bard vs John DanksBOS51.34%47.28%TBD
HOUCINWandy Rodriguez vs Mike LeakeCIN58.42%64.76%TBD
PITATLA.J. Burnett vs Tommy HansonATL64.22%64.21%TBD
TBTEXJames Shields vs Matt HarrisonTEX56.80%61.47%TBD
WASLANRoss Detwiler vs Clayton KershawLAN66.10%65.91%TBD
CHNPHIPaul Maholm vs Roy HalladayPHI71.51%73.21%TBD
DETNYAJustin Verlander vs Ivan NovaDET55.06%47.18%TBD
OAKBALBrandon McCarthy vs Jake ArrietaBAL55.26%51.23%TBD
SEATORBlake Beavan vs Ricky RomeroTOR66.67%60.41%TBD
ARIFLAJoe Saunders vs Carlos ZambranoFLA56.43%61.93%TBD
KCMINEverett Teaford vs Carl PavanoMIN55.06%56.26%TBD
MILSTLYovanni Gallardo vs Jake WestbrookSTL55.26%51.15%TBD
NYNCOLChris Schwinden vs Drew PomeranzCOL61.17%67.22%TBD
SDSFCory Luebke vs Eric HackerSDOFF55.46%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

April 26th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATBJerome Williams vs Matt MooreTB60.86%58.21%TBD
BOSCHAFelix Doubront vs Phil HumberCHA52.94%53.72%TBD
KCCLELuis Mendoza vs Josh TomlinCLE58.76%61.12%TBD
SFCINRyan Vogelsong vs Homer BaileyCIN54.85%53.52%TBD
WASSDEdwin Jackson vs Edinson VolquezSD50.25%55.32%TBD
SEADETHector Noesi vs Rick PorcelloDET65.10%67.47%TBD
FLANYNRicky Nolasco vs John NieseNYN53.38%46.94%TBD
TORBALDrew Hutchison vs Brian MatuszTOR52.27%43.40%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 25th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATBC.J. Wilson vs Jeremy HellicksonLAA50.62%53.97%TBD
ATLLANBrandon Beachy vs Ted LillyLAN50.86%44.93%TBD
KCCLELuke Hochevar vs Ubaldo JimenezCLE62.34%62.33%TBD
NYATEXPhil Hughes vs Scott FeldmanTEX54.85%55.04%TBD
SFCINBarry Zito vs Bronson ArroyoCIN55.46%58.82%TBD
WASSDJordan Zimmerman vs Joe WielandWAS56.43%49.46%TBD
COLPITJuan Nicasio vs James McDonaldCOL51.34%55.70%TBD
COLPITJhoulys Chacin vs Charlie MortonCOL53.60%51.97%TBD
HOUMILJ.A. Happ vs Shaun MarcumMIL64.97%68.93%TBD
STLCHNLance Lynn vs Chris VolstadSTL59.60%58.94%TBD
CHAOAKChris Sale vs Jarrod ParkerCHA55.26%47.53%TBD
PHIARICole Hamels vs Trevor CahillPHI50.74%51.45%TBD
SEADETFelx Hernandez vs Adam WilkSEA50.86%43.02%TBD
TORBALKyle Drabek vs Jason HammelBAL50.62%52.38%TBD
FLANYNMark Buehrle vs R.A. DickeyFLA51.57%55.24%TBD
BOSMINClay Buchholz vs Liam HendriksBOS53.60%51.54%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Monday, April 23, 2012

April 24th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATBErvin Santana vs David PriceTB59.27%54.35%TBD
ATLLANMike Minor vs Aaron HarangATL52.49%53.45%TBD
KCCLEJonathan Sanchez vs Derek LoweCLE55.46%61.20%TBD
NYATEXHiroki Kuroda vs Yu DarvishTEX57.36%57.58%TBD
SFCINMatt Cain vs Mat LatosCIN50.25%54.26%TBD
WASSDGio Gonzalez vs Clayton RichardWAS52.72%52.13%TBD
COLPITJamie Moyer vs Kevin CorreiaPIT51.10%44.61%TBD
SEADETJason Vargas vs Max ScherzerDET63.83%65.51%TBD
TORBALHenderson Alvarez vs Tommy HunterTOR52.49%47.16%TBD
FLANYNJosh Johnson vs Johan SantanaFLA51.81%59.29%TBD
STLCHNAdam Wainwright vs Jeff SamardzijaSTL57.17%60.50%TBD
BOSMINJosh Beckett vs Nick BlackburnBOS60.08%55.67%TBD
HOUMILBud Norris vs Randy WolfMIL56.62%63.09%TBD
PHIARIVance Worley vs Josh CollmenterPHI52.27%54.39%TBD
CHAOAKGavin Floyd vs Tom MiloneOAK50.74%53.72%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 23rd Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLLANJair Jurrjens vs Chris CapuanoLANTBD52.78%TBD
NYATEXC.C. Sabathia vs Derek HollandTEXTBD50.53%TBD
TORKCBrandon Morrow vs Bruce ChenTORTBD50.43%TBD
COLPITJamie Moyer vs Kevin CorreiaCOLTBD55.32%TBD
SFNYNTim Lincecum vs Miguel BatistaSFTBD53.70%TBD
SFNYNMadison Bumgarner vs Dillon GeeSFTBD61.61%TBD
STLCHNJaime Garcia vs Matt GarzaSTLTBD52.06%TBD
BOSMINJon Lester vs Jason MarquisBOSTBD55.56%TBD
HOUMILLucas Harrell vs Zach GreinkeMILTBD71.08%TBD
PHIARIKyle Kendrick vs Wade MileyPHITBD52.95%TBD
CHAOAKJake Peavy vs Bartolo ColonOAKTBD51.21%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Sunday, April 22, 2012

April 22nd Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALLAAWei-Yin Chen vs Dan HarenLAA60.94%64.11%TBD
MINTBFrancisco Liriano vs Jeff NiemannTB61.54%61.91%TBD
NYABOSC.C. Sabathia vs Daniel BardNYA55.95%56.76%TBD
PHISDJoe Blanton vs Anthony BassSD51.46%52.08%TBD
TORKCRicky Romero vs Danny DuffyTOR51.46%50.25%TBD
TEXDETColby Lewis vs Drew SmylyTEX55.75%47.47%TBD
SFNYNTim Lincecum vs Dillon GeeSF54.13%52.98%Ppd
FLAWASJosh Johnson vs Gio GonzalezFLANA56.02%Ppd
STLPITKyle Lohse vs Erik BedardSTL54.13%49.65%TBD
LANHOUChad Billingsley vs Wandy RodriguezLAN55.16%54.65%TBD
COLMILJeremy Guthrie vs Yovanni GallardoMIL59.02%54.30%TBD
CINCHNJohnny Cueto vs Randy WellsCIN58.68%61.95%TBD
CLEOAKJustin Masterson vs Tyson RossOAK51.69%46.11%TBD
ATLARIRandall Delgado vs Ian KennedyARI58.68%60.74%TBD
CHASEAJohn Danks vs Kevin MillwoodCHA51.46%50.71%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Saturday, April 21, 2012

April 21st Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALLAAJake Arrieta vs Jered WeaverLAA64.91%64.67%TBD
MINTBCarl Pavano vs James ShieldsTB64.91%62.35%TBD
NYABOSFreddy Garcia vs Felix DoubrontBOS53.70%51.70%TBD
PHISDRoy Halladay vs Cory LuebkePHI58.16%57.47%TBD
TORKCDrew Hutchison vs Luis MendozaTOR51.22%48.65%TBD
CINCHNMike Leake vs Paul MaholmCIN54.75%51.34%TBD
FLAWASAnibal Sanchez vs Stephen StrasburgWAS60.00%51.30%TBD
TEXDETMatt Harrison vs Rick PorcelloTEX50.00%54.53%TBD
TEXDETNeftali Feliz vs Justin VerlanderDET59.51%52.55%TBD
SFNYNRyan Vogelsong vs Mike PelfreyNYN51.22%48.25%TBD
CHASEAPhil Humber vs Blake BeavanCHA51.22%53.71%TBD
LANHOUClayton Kershaw vs Kyle WeilandLAN66.27%65.85%TBD
STLPITJake Westbrook vs Kevin CorreiaSTL55.75%53.30%TBD
COLMILDrew Pomeranz vs Marco EstradaMIL55.75%52.21%TBD
ATLARITommy Hanson vs Joe SaundersATL52.61%54.50%TBD
CLEOAKJeanmar Gomez vs Brandon McCarthyOAK56.33%57.98%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Thursday, April 19, 2012

April 20th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
BAL LAA Brian Matusz vs Jerome Williams LAA 59.27% 60.14% TBD
MIN TB Liam Hendriks vs Matt Moore TB 63.44% 67.26% TBD
NYA BOS Ivan Nova vs Clay Buchholz NYA 50.25% 51.51% TBD
PHI SD Cole Hamels vs Edinson Volquez PHI 55.85% 52.08% TBD
TOR KC Kyle Drabek vs Luke Hochevar KC 50.25% 54.49% TBD
CIN CHN Homer Bailey vs Chris Volstad CIN 53.60% 54.73% TBD
FLA WAS Carlos Zambrano vs Ross Detwiler WAS 52.94% 46.16% TBD
STL PIT Lance Lynn vs Charlie Morton STL 55.65% 47.12% TBD
TEX DET Matt Harrison vs Rick Porcello TEX 50.74% 54.50% TBD
SF NYN Barry Zito vs John Niese NYN 56.04% 56.82% TBD
LAN HOU Ted Lilly vs J.A. Happ LAN 55.46% 57.21% TBD
COL MIL Jhoulys Chacin vs Shaun Marcum COL 56.04% 48.94% TBD
ATL ARI Brandon Beachy vs Trevor Cahill ATL 52.72% 57.47% TBD
CLE OAK Ubaldo Jimenez vs Graham Godfrey CLE 52.94% 51.21% TBD
CHA SEA Chris Sale vs Hector Noesi CHA 53.81% 48.06% TBD

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

April 19th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
BAL CHA Jason Hammel vs Gavin Floyd CHA 56.43% 53.85% TBD
OAK LAA Tom Milone vs C.J. Wilson LAA 65.64% 69.68% TBD
PHI SD Vance Worley vs Joe Wieland PHI 53.81% 54.13% TBD
CHN FLA Jeff Samardzija vs Ricky Nolasco FLA 59.10% 65.47% TBD
LAN MIL Aaron Harang vs Randy Wolf MIL 55.65% 57.03% TBD
CIN STL Bronson Arroyo vs Adam Wainwright STL 60.08% 55.52% TBD
HOU WAS Bud Norris vs Edwin Jackson WAS 60.08% 62.10% TBD
MIN NYA Anthony Swarzak vs Phil Hughes NYA 67.21% 64.01% TBD
TEX DET Yu Darvish vs Adam Wilk TEX 52.27% 56.90% TBD
TB TOR Jeremy Hellickson vs Henderson Alvarez TOR 52.27% 55.03% TBD
ATL ARI Mike Minor vs Josh Collmenter ATL 52.27% 53.00% TBD
CLE SEA Josh Tomlin vs Felx Hernandez SEA 58.93% 56.10% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 18th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
BAL CHA Tommy Hunter vs Jake Peavy CHA 59.10% 56.77% TBD
DET KC Max Scherzer vs Jonathan Sanchez DET 55.06% 55.05% TBD
NYN ATL R.A. Dickey vs Jair Jurrjens ATL 55.65% 56.37% TBD
OAK LAA Bartolo Colon vs Ervin Santana LAA 61.01% 62.69% TBD
TEX BOS Derek Holland vs Josh Beckett BOS 53.38% 47.54% TBD
PIT ARI James McDonald vs Daniel Hudson ARI 62.19% 59.56% TBD
HOU WAS Lucas Harrell vs Jordan Zimmerman WAS 65.64% 65.80% TBD
MIN NYA Jason Marquis vs Hiroki Kuroda NYA 68.75% 66.38% TBD
TB TOR David Price vs Brandon Morrow TOR 52.27% 50.35% TBD
CHN FLA Matt Garza vs Mark Buehrle FLA 55.26% 55.46% TBD
LAN MIL Chris Capuano vs Zach Greinke MIL 61.54% 67.35% TBD
CIN STL Mat Latos vs Jaime Garcia STL 55.06% 51.27% TBD
SD COL Clayton Richard vs Juan Nicasio COL 59.10% 64.66% TBD
CLE SEA Derek Lowe vs Jason Vargas CLE 50.74% 49.46% TBD
PHI SF Cliff Lee vs Matt Cain SF 50.86% 50.29% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Monday, April 16, 2012

Dodgers vs Brewers - April 17th Simulation Box Score




Team RS RA Sim Win % Vegas Win %
Dodgers 3.191 3.665 41.636% 45.767%
Brewers 3.665 3.191 58.364% 54.233%


Hitters
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Dee Gordon4.4061.0720.7800.2150.0350.0420.1840.1641.0840.268
Mark Ellis4.2531.0490.7190.2250.0130.0930.3460.1811.0330.283
Matt Kemp4.0731.0150.5540.1690.0240.2690.5750.3161.6620.341
Andre Ethier3.9231.0250.6140.2470.0060.1590.4660.3971.1030.339
Juan Rivera3.9390.9480.6200.1860.0080.1340.4060.2501.0460.296
James Loney3.7991.0510.6470.2640.0140.1270.4120.3020.7190.340
Juan Uribe3.7900.8530.5390.2040.0080.1020.3690.1761.1140.272
A.J. Ellis3.6360.8410.5810.1780.0080.0740.3010.2211.0620.274
Pitchers Spot3.6420.3310.2590.0540.0020.0150.0980.1142.2700.111
           
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Ricky Weeks4.0781.1040.6900.2670.0280.1200.3710.4630.9790.344
Nyjer Morgan4.0651.2010.8200.2560.0790.0470.3590.3680.6670.346
Ryan Braun3.9371.2300.7680.2610.0340.1670.6320.4150.7270.389
Aramis Ramirez3.8941.1180.7340.2330.0100.1410.5790.3540.5850.352
Mat Gamel3.7850.9990.6760.2230.0160.0840.4240.3650.7600.322
Alex Gonzalez3.8360.9170.6030.2180.0120.0830.4020.1960.8760.282
Jonathan Lucroy3.6100.9230.6900.1680.0070.0580.3260.3160.8190.301
Carlos Gomez3.5520.8770.5730.2080.0380.0570.3330.2530.7750.296
Pitchers Spot3.5370.4730.3800.0790.0040.0100.1720.1781.5390.160

Pitchers
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Chad Billingsley6.0645.0522.0826.3030.56397.1383.771
Javy Guerra0.4320.4350.1100.3830.0276.6312.763
Kenley Jansen0.4080.6440.1230.2750.0246.4671.704
Matt Guerrier0.6100.4820.1560.6350.0579.4553.598
Scott Elbert0.2640.2360.1090.2600.0234.3023.803
Mike MacDougal0.2060.1640.0780.2090.0163.3083.721
Josh Lindblom0.5210.5100.1570.4840.0298.1682.873
Jamey Wright0.2680.2050.0940.2910.0274.3134.036
        
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Yovanni Gallardo6.5427.9511.3645.7790.787101.0452.958
John Axford0.4760.6260.1120.3510.0247.2641.925
Francisco Rodriguez0.4140.5040.1100.3370.0266.4292.387
Jose Veras0.5840.6940.2110.4930.0509.3763.015
Kameron Loe0.2480.2440.0490.2250.0163.7412.678
Manny Parra0.1270.1280.0510.1210.0172.0704.127
Tim Dillard0.5850.5600.1310.5590.0578.9723.232
Marco Estrada0.3460.3850.0930.3190.0385.4433.219


Top 150 Most Likely Final Scores
1 MIL 3-2   51 MIL 8-2   101 MIL 9-6
2 MIL 2-1   52 MIL 7-5   102 MIL 9-7
3 MIL 4-3   53 MIL 8-1   103 LAN 10-5
4 LAN 3-2   54 MIL 7-0   104 MIL 11-0
5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 7-5   105 MIL 11-4
6 MIL 3-1   56 LAN 6-0   106 LAN 10-0
7 MIL 4-2   57 MIL 8-3   107 LAN 11-4
8 MIL 1-0   58 LAN 7-6   108 LAN 9-8
9 MIL 5-4   59 LAN 8-2   109 MIL 12-3
10 LAN 4-3   60 MIL 8-4   110 LAN 10-6
11 LAN 3-1   61 LAN 8-3   111 MIL 12-2
12 MIL 4-1   62 MIL 8-0   112 MIL 12-1
13 MIL 2-0   63 LAN 8-4   113 MIL 10-6
14 LAN 4-2   64 MIL 9-2   114 LAN 10-7
15 MIL 3-0   65 LAN 8-1   115 MIL 11-5
16 MIL 5-2   66 MIL 8-5   116 LAN 11-5
17 MIL 5-3   67 MIL 9-1   117 LAN 11-1
18 LAN 4-1   68 LAN 7-0   118 LAN 11-2
19 LAN 1-0   69 MIL 8-7   119 MIL 10-9
20 LAN 5-4   70 MIL 9-3   120 LAN 11-3
21 LAN 2-0   71 LAN 8-5   121 MIL 12-4
22 MIL 5-1   72 LAN 9-3   122 MIL 10-7
23 LAN 5-3   73 LAN 9-2   123 LAN 12-3
24 MIL 6-5   74 MIL 8-6   124 MIL 13-2
25 LAN 5-2   75 MIL 9-4   125 MIL 11-6
26 MIL 4-0   76 LAN 8-6   126 MIL 13-3
27 LAN 3-0   77 MIL 9-0   127 LAN 12-2
28 MIL 6-3   78 MIL 10-1   128 MIL 12-0
29 MIL 6-2   79 LAN 9-1   129 MIL 12-5
30 LAN 5-1   80 MIL 10-2   130 MIL 10-8
31 MIL 6-1   81 LAN 9-4   131 LAN 10-9
32 MIL 5-0   82 LAN 8-7   132 LAN 11-0
33 MIL 6-4   83 LAN 8-0   133 LAN 10-8
34 LAN 6-4   84 LAN 9-5   134 LAN 12-1
35 LAN 6-3   85 MIL 10-3   135 LAN 12-4
36 LAN 6-2   86 MIL 9-5   136 MIL 13-4
37 LAN 4-0   87 MIL 10-0   137 LAN 13-2
38 LAN 6-5   88 LAN 10-3   138 LAN 11-6
39 LAN 6-1   89 LAN 10-2   139 MIL 14-3
40 MIL 7-2   90 MIL 11-2   140 LAN 13-3
41 MIL 7-1   91 MIL 10-4   141 LAN 12-5
42 MIL 6-0   92 MIL 11-3   142 MIL 11-7
43 MIL 7-6   93 LAN 9-0   143 MIL 14-1
44 MIL 7-3   94 MIL 9-8   144 MIL 13-0
45 LAN 5-0   95 LAN 9-6   145 MIL 14-0
46 MIL 7-4   96 LAN 10-1   146 LAN 11-8
47 LAN 7-2   97 MIL 11-1   147 MIL 13-5
48 LAN 7-3   98 LAN 9-7   148 LAN 13-1
49 LAN 7-4   99 LAN 10-4   149 LAN 11-9
50 LAN 7-1   100 MIL 10-5   150 LAN 12-6


April 17th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
BAL CHA Wei-Yin Chen vs John Danks CHA 55.65% 51.67% TBD
DET KC Drew Smyly vs Bruce Chen DET 52.49% 52.16% TBD
NYN ATL Johan Santana vs Randall Delgado ATL 50.74% 45.85% TBD
OAK LAA Tyson Ross vs Dan Haren LAA 65.64% 68.13% TBD
TEX BOS Colby Lewis vs Jon Lester BOS 53.38% 51.35% TBD
HOU WAS Wandy Rodriguez vs Gio Gonzalez WAS 61.54% 66.26% TBD
MIN NYA Francisco Liriano vs C.C. Sabathia NYA 69.23% 71.58% TBD
TB TOR Jeff Niemann vs Ricky Romero TOR 57.36% 53.77% TBD
CHN FLA Ryan Dempster vs Josh Johnson FLA 62.34% 66.35% TBD
LAN MIL Chad Billingsley vs Yovanni Gallardo MIL 54.23% 58.37% TBD
CIN STL Johnny Cueto vs Kyle Lohse STL 52.94% 51.38% TBD
SD COL Anthony Bass vs Jamie Moyer COL 52.27% 61.59% TBD
PIT ARI Jeff Karstens vs Ian Kennedy ARI 63.83% 63.32% TBD
CLE SEA Justin Masterson vs Kevin Millwood CLE 54.02% 57.44% TBD
PHI SF Joe Blanton vs Madison Bumgarner SF 57.54% 58.90% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Sunday, April 15, 2012

April 16th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
BAL CHA Jake Arrieta vs Phil Humber CHA 54.44% 55.99% TBD
DET KC Justin Verlander vs Danny Duffy DET 64.60% 59.58% TBD
NYN ATL Dillon Gee vs Tommy Hanson ATL 61.46% 65.10% TBD
OAK LAA Brandon McCarthy vs Jered Weaver LAA 65.64% 60.91% TBD
TB BOS James Shields vs Daniel Bard BOS 53.81% 52.89% TBD
HOU WAS Kyle Weiland vs Stephen Strasburg WAS 71.01% 71.86% TBD
MIN NYA Carl Pavano vs Freddy Garcia NYA TBD 62.88% TBD
SD COL Cory Luebke vs Jeremy Guthrie COL 55.85% 54.03% TBD
PIT ARI Erik Bedard vs Joe Saunders ARI 56.24% 49.70% TBD
PHI SF Roy Halladay vs Tim Lincecum PHI 50.86% 52.37% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Saturday, April 14, 2012

April 15th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
LAA NYA Jerome Williams vs Ivan Nova NYA 63.03% 60.69% TBD
CLE KC Ubaldo Jimenez vs Luis Mendoza CLE 52.94% 55.82% TBD
DET CHA Rick Porcello vs Chris Sale CHA 51.34% 46.30% TBD
MIL ATL Chris Narveson vs Brandon Beachy ATL 58.42% 63.90% TBD
NYN PHI Mike Pelfrey vs Cole Hamels PHI 64.09% 64.72% TBD
SD LAN Edinson Volquez vs Clayton Kershaw LAN 67.74% 62.55% TBD
TB BOS Matt Moore vs Felix Doubront TB 52.94% 49.60% TBD
BAL TOR Brian Matusz vs Kyle Drabek TOR 59.43% 52.33% TBD
HOU FLA J.A. Happ vs Anibal Sanchez FLA 65.99% 75.25% TBD
CIN WAS Mike Leake vs Ross Detwiler CIN 50.25% 49.12% TBD
TEX MIN Neftali Feliz vs Liam Hendriks TEX 62.48% 60.08% TBD
CHN STL Paul Maholm vs Jake Westbrook STL 63.30% 59.93% TBD
ARI COL Trevor Cahill vs Drew Pomeranz COL 52.49% 58.07% TBD
PIT SF Kevin Correia vs Ryan Vogelsong SF 59.76% 61.21% TBD
OAK SEA Graham Godfrey vs Blake Beavan OAK 50.86% 49.42% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Friday, April 13, 2012

April 14th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
CLE KC Jeanmar Gomez vs Jonathan Sanchez KC 56.62% 54.80% TBD
DET CHA Adam Wilk vs Gavin Floyd CHA 54.02% 50.57% TBD
MIL ATL Shaun Marcum vs Mike Minor ATL 50.62% 53.20% TBD
SD LAN Joe Wieland vs Ted Lilly LAN 56.04% 56.31% TBD
TB BOS Jeremy Hellickson vs Clay Buchholz BOS 56.24% 57.18% TBD
CHN STL Chris Volstad vs Lance Lynn STL 64.48% 60.24% TBD
NYN PHI John Niese vs Vance Worley PHI 58.25% 62.64% TBD
TEX MIN Yu Darvish vs Nick Blackburn TEX 60.40% 63.35% TBD
LAA NYA C.J. Wilson vs Phil Hughes NYA 52.49% 47.38% TBD
CIN WAS Homer Bailey vs Edwin Jackson WAS 52.94% 49.54% TBD
BAL TOR Jason Hammel vs Henderson Alvarez TOR 61.01% 56.15% TBD
HOU FLA Bud Norris vs Carlos Zambrano FLA 61.69% 65.36% TBD
ARI COL Josh Collmenter vs Jhoulys Chacin COL 58.25% 61.96% TBD
PIT SF Charlie Morton vs Barry Zito SF 58.76% 52.33% TBD
OAK SEA Tom Milone vs Hector Noesi SEA 50.62% 49.96% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

NL West Vegas Standings




Here we are only a week or so in to the season. Let's take a look at the NL West Standings and compare the empirical results with the Vegas expectations and see which teams are doing better or worse than expected and by how much.

TeamVeg Exp WinsVeg Exp LossesVeg Exp Win%Actual WinsActual LossesActual Win% Delta Wins
Dodgers3.843.160.549610.857 2.16
Dbacks2.963.040.494510.833 2.04
Giants3.032.970.505240.333 -1.03
Rockies3.202.800.533240.333 -1.20
Padres3.473.530.496250.286 -1.47


Thursday, April 12, 2012

April 13th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
CLE KC Derek Lowe vs Luke Hochevar KC 54.23% 50.67% TBD
DET CHA Max Scherzer vs Jake Peavy DET 51.10% 48.91% TBD
MIL ATL Randy Wolf vs Jair Jurrjens ATL 54.85% 52.81% TBD
SD LAN Clayton Richard vs Aaron Harang LAN 54.44% 54.81% TBD
TB BOS David Price vs Josh Beckett BOS 53.16% 57.38% TBD
LAA NYA Ervin Santana vs Hiroki Kuroda NYA 57.36% 57.50% TBD
CHN STL Jeff Samardzija vs Adam Wainwright STL 64.22% 61.94% TBD
PIT SF James McDonald vs Matt Cain SF 62.19% 64.51% TBD
CIN WAS Bronson Arroyo vs Jordan Zimmerman WAS 57.17% 51.57% TBD
NYN PHI R.A. Dickey vs Cliff Lee PHI 62.19% 69.04% TBD
BAL TOR Tommy Hunter vs Brandon Morrow TOR 64.35% 58.17% TBD
HOU MIA Lucas Harrell vs Ricky Nolasco MIA 65.52% 70.74% TBD
TEX MIN Matt Harrison vs Anthony Swarzak TEX 59.76% 58.74% TBD
ARI COL Daniel Hudson vs Juan Nicasio COL 50.86% 58.57% TBD
OAK SEA Bartolo Colon vs Felx Hernandez SEA 60.86% 55.94% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 12th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
ARI SD Ian Kennedy vs Anthony Bass ARI 55.65% 56.37% TBD
PIT LAN Jeff Karstens vs Chris Capuano LAN 57.36% 55.72% TBD
SEA TEX Jason Vargas vs Derek Holland TEX 68.94% 71.23% TBD
CIN WAS Mat Latos vs Gio Gonzalez CIN 50.25% 56.11% TBD
TB DET Jeff Niemann vs Drew Smyly DET 52.49% 58.15% TBD
LAA MIN Dan Haren vs Francisco Liriano LAA 58.93% 60.19% TBD
MIL CHN Zach Greinke vs Matt Garza MIL 54.65% 51.28% TBD
SF COL Madison Bumgarner vs Jamie Moyer SF 54.85% 49.68% TBD
FLA PHI Mark Buehrle vs Joe Blanton FLA 51.10% 50.14% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

April 11th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
ARI SD Joe Saunders vs Cory Luebke SD 54.44% 61.49% TBD
CHA CLE John Danks vs Justin Masterson CLE 56.80% 56.70% TBD
NYA BAL C.C. Sabathia vs Jake Arrieta NYA 61.69% 62.59% TBD
PIT LAN Erik Bedard vs Chad Billingsley LAN 56.62% 52.40% TBD
SEA TEX Kevin Millwood vs Colby Lewis TEX 68.75% 68.95% TBD
STL CIN Jaime Garcia vs Johnny Cueto CIN 54.23% 53.08% TBD
BOS TOR Jon Lester vs Ricky Romero BOS 52.94% 55.07% TBD
TB DET James Shields vs Justin Verlander DET 62.89% 62.73% TBD
WAS NYN Stephen Strasburg vs Johan Santana WAS 50.86% 55.99% TBD
ATL HOU Randall Delgado vs Wandy Rodriguez ATL 53.81% 50.59% TBD
MIL CHN Yovanni Gallardo vs Ryan Dempster MIL 53.81% 51.85% TBD
KC OAK Bruce Chen vs Brandon McCarthy OAK 55.26% 55.07% TBD
FLA PHI Josh Johnson vs Roy Halladay PHI 56.43% 57.88% TBD
LAA MIN Jered Weaver vs Carl Pavano LAA 62.34% 55.70% TBD
SF COL Tim Lincecum vs Jeremy Guthrie SF 53.60% 47.54% TBD


Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

April 10th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
ARI SD Trevor Cahill vs Edinson Volquez ARI 50.74% 48.68% TBD
CHA CLE Phil Humber vs Jeanmar Gomez CLE 54.02% 53.00% TBD
PIT LAN Kevin Correia vs Clayton Kershaw LAN 69.23% 68.45% TBD
SEA TEX Blake Beavan vs Neftali Feliz TEX 70.15% 69.61% TBD
STL CIN Kyle Lohse vs Mike Leake CIN 51.10% 48.17% TBD
TB DET Matt Moore vs Rick Porcello DET 51.81% 53.92% TBD
NYA BAL Freddy Garcia vs Wei-Yin Chen NYA 55.65% 51.39% TBD
BOS TOR Daniel Bard vs Kyle Drabek BOS 53.81% 53.18% TBD
WAS NYN Ross Detwiler vs Dillon Gee NYN 54.02% 49.47% TBD
ATL HOU Tommy Hanson vs Kyle Weiland ATL 64.09% 62.60% TBD
MIL CHN Chris Narveson vs Paul Maholm MIL 51.57% 51.80% TBD
KC OAK Danny Duffy vs Graham Godfrey OAK 51.10% 53.01% TBD


Monday, April 09, 2012

April 9th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
CHA CLE Chris Sale vs Josh Tomlin CLE 51.92% 52.62% TBD
SEA TEX Hector Noesi vs Yu Darvish TEX 69.23% 73.29% TBD
STL CIN Jake Westbrook vs Homer Bailey CIN 51.92% 52.81% TBD
FLA PHI Anibal Sanchez vs Cole Hamels PHI 57.63% 48.20% TBD
LAA MIN C.J. Wilson vs Nick Blackburn LAA 60.78% 62.60% TBD
SF COL Barry Zito vs Jhoulys Chacin COL 61.09% 63.71% TBD
NYA BAL Ivan Nova vs Brian Matusz NYA 58.33% 51.05% TBD
BOS TOR Felix Doubront vs Henderson Alvarez TOR 53.49% 49.68% TBD
WAS NYN Edwin Jackson vs Mike Pelfrey NYN 50.00% 50.90% TBD
ATL HOU Brandon Beachy vs J.A. Happ ATL 61.69% 62.00% TBD
MIL CHN Shaun Marcum vs Chris Volstad MIL 56.33% 51.86% TBD
KC OAK Luis Mendoza vs Tom Milone OAK 51.22% 57.08% TBD


Wednesday, April 04, 2012

April 5th Simulations




Simulations will return on Monday 4/9

2012 MLB Simulations

Away Home Away SP Home SP Vegas Fave Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Sim Win Prob Sim O/U
LAN SD C.Kershaw E.Volquez LAN 58.93% 5.8 57.23% 5.59
Skinny: Two fairly weak offenses, a pitchers park and Clayton Kershaw on the mound all point to a very low scoring game. As long as Volquez is half way decent, it should be a pretty easy under on this one.
TOR CLE R.Romero J.Masterson TOR 53.16% 7.4 40.90% 7.13
Skinny: Justin Masterson is a better pitcher than given credit for here. He was basically a very similar pitcher to Ricky Romero in the 2011 season. Combine that with HFA and a decent lineup and the Indians make a nice underdog bet here.
BOS DET J.Lester J.Verlander DET 57.72% 6.9 54.78% 8.71
Skinny: Two very good pitchers meet two good very lineups. Simulator confidently says to take the over on this one.
ATL NYN T.Hanson J.Santana ATL 50.62% 6.8 47.62% 7.58
Skinny: Kind of hard to say what you are going to get from Johan Santana, but the simulator thinks that the Braves are a little overrated in this game. Take the Mets at home and the over.
PHI PIT R.Halladay E.Bedard PHI 61.32% 6.6 60.51% 6.40%
Skinny: Vegas and the simulator are in very good agreement on this game. Nothing to see here... move on.
WAS CHN S.Strasburg R.Dempster WAS 59.27% NA 54.60% 6.91
Skinny: A little bit of value on the ML with the Cubs playing at home. Cubs will need to get to the Nationals bullpen in a close game to win this one.
MIA CIN M.Buehrle J.Cueto CIN 58.07% 7.8 58.17% 7.93
Skinny: Very little value here. Best to sit this one out.


Tuesday, April 03, 2012

April 4th Simulations




Cardinals VS Marlins

Away Home Away SP Home SP Vegas Fave Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Sim Win Prob Sim Away Runs Sim Home Runs Sim O/U Most Likely Score
STL MIA K.Lohse J.Johnson Miami 62.05% 6.9 57.10% 4.38 4.88 9.26 MIA 3-2
Skinny: Simulator sees this as a much higher scoring game than Vegas does. In fact after you adjust for home park, the simulator has these two offenses as the NL's two best. Josh Johnson is a tough pitcher, but coming off of an injury riddled season. Lohse is a bit of an enigma as one could easily argue that his good ERA and FIP were luck driven in 2011. At -160 on the ML there looks to be decent value on the Cardinals and with a run total of 7 +100 (Over) an over looks to be the smart play.


NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Kyle Lohse5.844.411.687.470.5895.733.845
Jason Motte0.410.460.100.410.026.512.448
Fernando Salas0.410.450.130.440.046.713.317
Marc Rzepczynski0.590.600.320.650.0610.284.038
Scott Linebrink0.290.260.130.350.045.024.506
Kyle McClellan0.240.170.090.320.044.104.858
J.C. Romero0.540.460.380.650.059.994.886
Mitchell Boggs0.320.280.140.380.035.493.910
        
Josh Johnson6.006.251.956.670.6099.053.393
Heath Bell0.410.450.130.400.036.612.865
Edward Mujica0.380.390.080.430.056.073.376
Michael Dunn0.580.630.300.640.0810.134.430
Ryan Webb0.280.220.120.330.014.683.471
Randy Choate0.170.170.090.190.022.944.345
Steven Cishek0.830.900.340.870.0513.992.992
Chad Gaudin0.520.500.270.630.099.185.000


NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Rafael Furcal4.5171.2960.8560.3280.0240.0890.3750.3530.8370.337
Carlos Beltran4.2451.2860.7550.3340.0410.1560.5600.4910.9490.383
Matt Holliday4.2471.2550.7370.3440.0030.1710.6240.4211.1440.371
Lance Berkman3.9591.1490.7250.2330.0160.1750.6210.6160.9460.383
David Freese4.2011.2130.8370.2710.0110.0930.5150.2571.1530.331
Yadier Molina4.0711.2300.8580.2760.0050.0900.5100.2630.6370.343
Jon Jay3.9821.2270.8380.2770.0350.0770.4750.2770.8430.353
Daniel Descalso3.7011.0360.6830.2590.0300.0640.4520.4470.8680.345
Pitchers Spot3.8960.4530.3630.0760.0030.0110.1750.1492.1370.137
           
Jose Reyes4.4031.5151.0430.2890.1170.0660.3700.3240.3970.390
Emilio Bonifacio4.2331.3420.9940.2390.0640.0450.4900.3690.8150.357
Hanley Ramirez4.1821.3700.9390.3130.0110.1070.7200.3460.7230.377
Giancarlo Stanton3.9961.1720.6570.2760.0300.2080.7850.4311.1070.383
Logan Morrison3.8921.1890.6880.2820.0560.1630.6530.4450.7180.391
Gaby Sanchez3.8011.1580.7600.2880.0060.1040.5490.3910.6130.366
Omar Infante3.8821.2940.9580.2170.0590.0600.5110.2040.4760.364
John Buck3.6681.0330.7430.1880.0060.0960.4940.3190.8210.333
Pitchers Spot3.7430.5960.4810.0990.0050.0110.1960.1471.4290.178
>

Monday, April 02, 2012

Cory Luebke Budding Ace Or Mirage




Cory Luebke, the Padres 27 year old pitcher made news this spring signing a four year deal with the club. Luebke who didn't really show all that much promise in the minor leagues has impressed heavily in over 100 innings pitched as a starter in the big leagues. While it is a very small sample size (IP-116), Luebke's skill related numbers have been great. How great? Let's take a look at the closest comparables to Luebke using the pitching skilled related stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB over the past two seasons. Like I mentioned above, keep in mind the small sample size and the high probability for some regression from Luebke. The comparables are interesting though.

Cory Luebke9.752.550.96
Rank Pitcher K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
1Clayton Kershaw9.462.781.04
2Yovani Gallardo9.343.071.29
3Michael Pineda9.112.890.81
4Justin Verlander8.882.420.98
5Mat Latos8.882.661.07
6Josh Johnson8.932.511.39
7Brandon Beachy10.573.040.77
8Tim Lincecum9.453.41.5
9Zack Greinke8.782.31.37
10Mike Minor8.72.950.92
11Cole Hamels8.622.241.37
12Tommy Hanson8.522.760.99
13Erik Bedard8.73.341.11
14Jon Lester9.173.561.65
15David Price8.442.961.16
16Jered Weaver8.432.150.71
17Brandon Morrow10.533.730.91
18Felix Hernandez8.452.551.72
19Max Scherzer8.252.91.02
20James Shields8.212.291.18


Giants Able To Sign Matt Cain




The Giants signed Matt Cain to a 6 year $127.5M deal. Is he worth this kind of money? No, probably not. He did amass 5.2 fWAR last year and if for some reason you think that is his new baseline then one could probably make an argument in his favor. But let's keep in mind that he did so putting up an unsustainable 0.37 HR/9, 70.6 LOB% and a low BABIP against of 0.260. The Giants bought high on Matt Cain. Let's take a look at three of the main skill stats (K/9, BB/9, GB/FB) that a pitcher can control and compare Matt Cain to his recent peers. The comparison will not take into consideration age, as I am just looking at current skill comparables. I looked at 2010 and 2011 data only.

Matt Cain7.22.510.91
Rank Name K/9 BB/9 GB/FB
1Shaun Marcum7.342.270.88
2Daniel Hudson7.182.180.98
3Jake Peavy7.592.430.99
4John Danks6.972.721.18
5Roy Oswalt7.342.271.25
6Gavin Floyd7.152.441.36
7Bartolo Colon7.182.181.24
8Ervin Santana6.922.890.98
9Javier Vazquez7.242.970.74
10Travis Wood6.852.830.68
11Joe Blanton6.972.151.22
12Ted Lilly7.552.210.64
13Alexi Ogando6.682.320.92
14Homer Bailey7.692.731.07
15Brett Myers6.932.531.41
16Phil Hughes6.882.960.76
17Hiroki Kuroda7.232.191.41
18Jordan Zimmermann7.071.920.99
19Jeff Niemann6.792.861.21
20Matt Garza7.772.81.04
21Ricky Nolasco7.31.911.22
22Chris Capuano7.882.611.05
23Johan Santana6.512.490.76
24Chris Carpenter7.052.251.59
25Ian Kennedy7.922.70.91
26Ryan Vogelsong6.993.141.34


So, not exactly a stellar group of comparables. Good but not elite or record breaking good.

2012 Organization Rankings (1 - 10)




1-10 | 11 - 20 | 21 - 30

2012 Rank 2011 Rank Team Skinny
10 14 Blue Jays Great minor league system. Good team without bloated payroll.
9 11 Rockies Solid all the way across.
8 8 Angels One of the better and richer teams in baseball. Money not always spent wisely though.
7 1 Phillies Very successful team but core is aging and paid well. Minors is depleted.
6 5 Braves Good team. Good minor league depth. No terrible contracts dragging them down.
5 9 Red Sox A consistent winner with deep pockets and decent minor league system.
4 3 Yankees Big time winner with average minor league system, but you money can't buy you a #1 ranking.
3 13 Cardinals Your 2011 Champions have a strong minor league system to replace aging vets. Payroll is spent efficiently.
2 2 Rays Consistent winner, solid minors, efficient payroll... All done on a shoe-string budget. Impressive!!!
1 4 Rangers Back to back trips to the World Series and all signs point to the Rangers being good for a long time.


Sources:
Fangraphs
Baseball Prospectus
Forbes


Sunday, April 01, 2012

Early Opening Day Simulation



Here is a screen shot of the output of the simulation for the opening day game on April 5th between the Dodgers and Padres. I made my best guess at lineups. The screenshot image will appear small on your screen. Click on it and you will see a larger and more readable version.