Saturday, October 31, 2009

Start Spreading The News...


November 1st, World Series Game #4



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton Yankees 62.26% 62.51% 65% NYA 7-4


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Trick Or Treat Baseball


October 31st, World Series Game #3



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels Yankees 52.83% 46.70% 52% NYA 8-5


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Who's Your Daddy


October 29th, World Series Game #2



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees P.Martinez vs A.Burnett Yankees 66.10% 58.48% 58% NYA 3-1


Vegas Odds

Monday, October 26, 2009

World Series, Tale Of The Tape


There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.

Pos Yankees WAR/650PA Phillies WAR/650PA
C J.Posada 5.94 C.Ruiz 3.77
1B M.Teixeira 4.78 R.Howard 4.53
2B R.Cano 4.15 C.Utley 7.29
3B A.Rodriguez 5.59 P.Feliz 1.25
SS D.Jeter 6.72 J.Rollins 2.15
LF J.Damon 2.91 R.Ibanez 4.72
CF M.Cabrera 1.93 S.Victorino 3.18
RF N.Swisher 3.96 J.Werth 4.52
DH H.Matsui 2.95 B.Francisco 2.27
Total (DH)   38.92   33.67
Total (No DH)   35.97   31.41

So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

When Two Tribes Go To War


October 28th, World Series Game #1



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees C.Lee vs C.Sabathia Yankees 60.78% 56.96% 67% PHI 6-1


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 22, 2009

End Of The Line


October 25th, ALCS Game #6



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Angels Yankees J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte Yankees 63.37% 67.25% 57% NYA 5-2


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

El Fin


October 22nd, ALCS Game #5



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Angels A.Burnett vs J.Lackey Angels 53.49% 55.25% 54% LAA 7-6


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Sending Out An S.O.S.


October 21st, NLCS


Click Here, To Help Rescue The Dodgers Season!!!

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies V.Padilla vs C.Hamels Phillies 56.71% 59.88% 55% PHI 10-4


Vegas Odds

Monday, October 19, 2009

Mountain Of Dreams


October 20th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Angels C.Sabathia vs S.Kazmir Yankees 56.14% 56.32% 60% NYA 10-1


Vegas Odds

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Back, Meet Wall.


October 19th, LCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies R.Wolf vs J.Blanton Phillies 55.16% 48.98% 49% PHI 5-4
Yankees Angels A.Pettitte vs J.Weaver Angels 55.95% 50.41% 60% LAA 5-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Phillie Killer


October 18th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies H.Kuroda vs C.Lee Phillies 63.79% 58.94% 57% PHI 11-0


Vegas Odds

Friday, October 16, 2009

Start Spreading The News


October 17th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Angels Yankees J.Saunders vs A.Burnett Yankees 63.77% 64.64% 60% NYA 4-3


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Only A Phillie Walks In LA


October 16th, LCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers P.Martinez vs V.Padilla Dodgers 57.63% 56.70% 51% LAN 2-1
Angels Yankees J.Lackey vs C.Sabathia Yankees 62.12% 66.28% 68% NYA 4-1


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Dodgers Play Their Ace


October 15th, Game #1 NLCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers C.Hamels vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 56.90% 62.55% 51% PHI 8-6


Vegas Odds

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Who Can It Be Now?


October 12th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Rockies C.Lee vs U.Jimenez Rockies 51.69% 48.41% 46% PHI 5-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Redbirds Get The Broom Handle


October 11th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Twins A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano Yankees 62.85% 51.67% 57% NYA 4-1
Angels Red Sox S.Kazmir vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 57.26% 55.29% 51% LAA 7-6
Phillies Rockies J.Happ vs J.Hammel Phillies 51.46% 45.87% 48% TBD


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Happy Hollidays Dodgers Fans


October 9th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Twins Yankees N.Blackburn vs A.Burnett Yankees 74.03% 62.90% TBD TBD
Red Sox Angels J.Beckett vs J.Weaver Red Sox TBD 52.10% TBD TBD


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Where The Deer And The Bison Play


October 8th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw Cardinals 53.70% 43.91% 53% LAN 3-2
Rockies Phillies A.Cook vs C.Hamels Phillies 60.16% 66.04% 64% COL 5-4
Red Sox Angels J.Lester vs J.Lackey Red Sox 51.21% 51.49% 45% LAA 5-0


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Ready To Rumble


October 7th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf Cardinals 56.90% 51.99% 53% LAN 5-3
Rockies Phillies U.Jimenez vs C.Lee Phillies 56.14% 62.26% 60% PHI 5-1
Twins Yankees B.Duensing vs C.Sabathia Yankees 74.03% 68.30% 76% NYA 7-2


Vegas Odds

Friday, October 02, 2009

And Then There Were Two Games Left


October 3nd, Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.de la Rosa vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 56.33% 64.71% 60% LAN 5-0
Marlins Phillies A.Sanchez vs C.Hamels Phillies 67.32% 65.13% 69% FLA 4-3
Brewers Cardinals C.Villanueva vs K.Lohse Cardinals 57.81% 56.11% 55% MIL 5-4


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 01, 2009

The Long And Winding Road To Clinching


October 2nd, Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs R.Wolf Dodgers 50.98% 56.46% 71% COL 4-3
Marlins Phillies R.VandenHurk vs J.Blanton Phillies 62.55% 60.95% 58% FLA 7-2
Brewers Cardinals J.Suppan vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 65.46% 71.79% 69% MIL 12-6


Vegas Odds