Tuesday, July 31, 2012

July 31st - Diamondbacks vs Dodgers (Simulator Box Scores)



Hitters Statistics

NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIRUNSBBSOwOBA
Gerardo Parra4.4321.2210.9230.2110.0220.0650.2740.2390.2751.1460.308
Aaron Hill4.2891.1300.7290.2810.0140.1070.3700.1990.2650.8060.313
Jason Kubel4.1831.0320.7030.1810.0080.1400.4190.1690.3281.4490.306
Paul Goldschmidt4.0901.1690.6790.3520.0050.1330.4890.1930.3211.0560.350
Justin Upton3.9781.1330.7790.2360.0080.1100.4630.1920.3341.0910.339
Miguel Montero3.8730.9440.7090.1620.0050.0680.3640.1440.3311.3160.290
Chris Johnson3.8821.0760.7210.2780.0070.0700.4050.1430.2101.1010.316
Stephen Drew3.7660.9260.6910.1760.0120.0480.3340.1280.2121.0530.277
Pitchers Spot3.7440.4730.3780.0830.0010.0100.1550.0790.1391.8530.146
Dodgers
Mark Ellis4.2781.2200.8420.2910.0220.0650.2970.2660.3300.6830.329
Juan Rivera4.1541.1750.7930.2770.0050.1000.3820.2360.3170.6220.333
Matt Kemp4.0671.3150.8380.3090.0280.1400.5240.2580.3550.7990.387
Andre Ethier4.0011.1090.7790.2240.0080.0980.5010.1940.3221.0050.327
Hanley Ramirez3.8721.1890.7550.3150.0130.1060.5400.2330.3480.7100.367
Jerry Hairston Jr.3.7721.0510.7070.2410.0080.0950.5040.1930.3250.6290.333
Luis Cruz3.7561.0440.6720.3050.0250.0420.4160.1740.2340.6520.319
A.J. Ellis3.5410.9820.7340.2000.0080.0410.3750.1350.3410.7530.321
Pitchers Spot3.6310.5550.4390.1030.0030.0110.1720.1000.1551.4050.174

Pitching Statistics

NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Wade Miley6.1014.6091.8376.9720.49497.683.645
J.J. Putz0.4390.5270.0810.3820.0306.692.248
David Hernandez0.4120.5520.1370.3420.0276.642.373
Brad Ziegler0.6140.4930.1910.6410.0199.712.930
Craig Breslow0.2770.2500.1050.2940.0264.543.734
Takashi Saito0.2150.2130.0810.2140.0173.503.350
Mike Zagurski0.4740.4370.2200.5120.0578.024.299
Brad Bergesen0.2410.1760.0770.2840.0303.914.295
Dodgers
Chris Capuano6.4057.3441.5406.4120.573101.722.792
Kenley Jansen0.4580.8340.1150.2860.0277.241.084
Brandon League0.4080.3880.1080.4260.0206.462.722
Randy Choate0.6200.7570.1860.5740.0349.962.379
Josh Lindblom0.2630.3060.0720.2610.0324.223.293
Javy Guerra0.1470.1510.0530.1460.0072.402.847
Ronald Belisario0.6470.7230.1900.6310.03510.362.548
Jamey Wright0.3610.3700.1500.3690.0216.013.175

This is the box score output from today's simulation of the Diamondbacks / Dodgers game. The simulation was ran before some of today's trades were made.

July 31st Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXJered Weaver vs Derek HollandTEXTBD50.77%TBD
ARILANWade Miley vs Chris CapuanoLANTBD57.29%TBD
CLEKCDerek Lowe vs Luke HochevarKCTBD57.07%TBD
DETBOSJustin Verlander vs Josh BeckettDETTBD52.77%TBD
FLAATLRicky Nolasco vs Kris MedlenATLTBD57.96%TBD
SDCINJason Marquis vs Homer BaileyCINTBD54.98%TBD
BALNYAChris Tillman vs Ivan NovaNYATBD60.37%TBD
PHIWASCliff Lee vs Stephen StrasburgWASTBD56.59%TBD
PITCHNA.J. Burnett vs Ryan DempsterCHNTBD52.55%TBD
CHAMINFrancisco Liriano vs Scott DiamondMINTBD53.10%TBD
HOUMILDallas Keuchel vs Yovanni GallardoMILTBD67.53%TBD
STLCOLKyle Lohse vs Jeff FrancisSTLTBD50.39%TBD
TBOAKJames Shields vs Tom MiloneTBTBD51.47%TBD
TORSEAAaron Laffey vs Jason VargasTORTBD50.36%TBD
NYNSFMatt Harvey vs Tim LincecumSFTBD57.25%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Monday, July 30, 2012

July 30th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXErvin Santana vs Roy OswaltTEX58.42%62.20%TBD
ARILANTrevor Cahill vs Aaron HarangLAN56.43%55.18%TBD
DETBOSMax Scherzer vs Clay BuchholzBOS53.38%43.95%TBD
FLAATLMark Buehrle vs Tommy HansonATL58.59%54.32%TBD
SDCINEdinson Volquez vs Mike LeakeCIN60.55%55.98%TBD
BALNYAMiguel Gonzalez vs Freddy GarciaNYA63.17%56.24%TBD
PITCHNErik Bedard vs Justin GermanoPIT56.80%53.49%TBD
CHAMINJose Quintana vs Cole DeVriesCHA56.99%50.25%TBD
HOUMILBud Norris vs Marco EstradaMIL63.30%62.77%TBD
TBOAKDavid Price vs A.J. GriffinTB54.02%53.44%TBD
TORSEARicky Romero vs Hisashi IwakumaSEA50.74%51.92%TBD
NYNSFJeremy Hefner vs Madison BumgarnerSF65.64%60.08%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 29, 2012

July 29th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSNYAFelix Doubront vs Hiroki KurodaNYA61.83%55.44%TBD
CHATEXGavin Floyd vs Scott FeldmanTEX58.93%62.31%TBD
PHIATLRoy Halladay vs Tim HudsonATL51.10%50.57%TBD
STLCHNAdam Wainwright vs Paul MaholmSTL59.27%63.27%TBD
TBLAAJeremy Hellickson vs Zach GreinkeLAA65.10%66.91%TBD
DETTORDoug Fister vs Brett CecilDET58.07%61.11%TBD
SDFLAClayton Richard vs Josh JohnsonFLA61.54%62.28%TBD
OAKBALTravis Blackley vs Brian MatuszBAL50.86%56.75%TBD
PITHOUJames McDonald vs Lucas HarrellPIT59.60%54.68%TBD
CLEMINUbaldo Jimenez vs Brian DuensingMIN54.02%57.93%TBD
WASMILGio Gonzalez vs Mark RogersWAS58.76%57.60%TBD
CINCOLMat Latos vs Jonathan SanchezCIN61.69%57.62%TBD
LANSFClayton Kershaw vs Ryan VogelsongLAN51.57%56.18%TBD
KCSEAWil Smith vs Felix HernandezSEA61.69%59.99%TBD
NYNARIR.A. Dickey vs Joe SaundersARI51.34%46.63%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, July 28, 2012

July 28th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHATEXPhil Humber vs Matt HarrisonTEX64.22%67.05%TBD
PHIATLJoe Blanton vs Mike MinorATL53.16%51.30%TBD
TBLAAMatt Moore vs C.J. WilsonLAA62.05%62.99%TBD
STLCHNJoe Kelly vs Jeff SamardzijaSTL52.72%51.33%TBD
DETTORAnibal Sanchez vs Henderson AlvarezDET55.26%58.12%TBD
BOSNYAJon Lester vs C.C. SabathiaNYA63.70%58.70%TBD
KCSEABruce Chen vs Kevin MillwoodKC50.74%49.27%TBD
OAKBALBartolo Colon vs Tommy HunterBAL52.27%56.90%TBD
PITHOUWandy Rodriguez vs Armando GallaragaPIT62.05%52.19%TBD
CLEMINJustin Masterson vs Samuel DedunoCLE54.44%52.50%TBD
SDFLARoss Ohlendorf vs Nathan EovaldiFLA56.24%55.99%TBD
WASMILJordan Zimmerman vs Randy WolfWAS54.44%52.77%TBD
CINCOLJohnny Cueto vs Chris FriedrichCIN59.92%54.05%TBD
NYNARIChris Young vs Ian KennedyARI62.89%60.83%TBD
LANSFChad Billingsley vs Barry ZitoSF51.10%45.04%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, July 26, 2012

July 27th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHATEXChris Sale vs Yu DarvishTEX55.85%59.22%TBD
PHIATLCole Hamels vs Ben SheetsPHI50.74%55.48%TBD
TBLAAAlex Cobb vs Dan HarenLAA61.46%55.84%TBD
STLCHNLance Lynn vs Travis WoodSTL60.86%64.18%TBD
BOSNYAAaron Cook vs Phil HughesNYA61.46%60.09%TBD
OAKBALJarrod Parker vs Zach BrittonBAL50.62%56.57%TBD
DETTORRick Porcello vs Carlos VillanuevaTOR53.38%45.49%TBD
SDFLAKip Wells vs Carlos ZambranoFLA56.24%57.55%TBD
PITHOUJeff Karstens vs Jordan LylesPIT58.25%51.03%TBD
CLEMINJosh Tomlin vs Scott DiamondMIN53.16%60.62%TBD
WASMILRoss Detwiler vs Michael FiersMIL55.85%58.25%TBD
CINCOLBronson Arroyo vs Drew PomeranzCIN51.57%49.99%TBD
NYNARIJohn Niese vs Josh CollmenterARI56.80%49.57%TBD
KCSEAJeremy Guthrie vs Blake BeavanSEA54.65%50.33%TBD
LANSFStephen Fife vs Matt CainSFOFF62.37%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

July 26th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
DETCLEJustin Verlander vs Zach McAllisterDET61.90%53.01%TBD
TBBALJames Shields vs Chris TillmanTB50.74%49.73%TBD
OAKTORTom Milone vs Aaron LaffeyTOR51.34%52.99%TBD
LANSTLChris Capuano vs Jake WestbrookSTL57.17%56.10%TBD
PITHOUA.J. Burnett vs Dallas KeuchelPIT61.01%58.07%TBD
WASMILEdwin Jackson vs Yovanni GallardoMIL55.06%54.41%TBD
NYNARIMatt Harvey vs Wade MileyARI61.69%59.36%TBD
KCSEALuis Mendoza vs Jason VargasSEA53.16%50.93%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 25th Simulation Results



VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSTEXJosh Beckett vs Derek HollandTEXTBD57.52%TBD
DETCLEMax Scherzer vs Derek LoweDETTBD56.52%TBD
KCLAALuke Hochevar vs Dan HarenLAATBD67.88%TBD
MINCHANick Blackburn vs Jake PeavyCHATBD61.75%TBD
WASNYNStephen Strasburg vs Jeremy HefnerWASTBD58.24%TBD
CHNPITRyan Dempster vs Kevin CorreiaCHNTBD50.88%TBD
ATLFLATommy Hanson vs Ricky NolascoFLATBD52.47%TBD
MILPHIMarco Estrada vs Vance WorleyPHITBD59.74%TBD
COLARIJeff Francis vs Trevor CahillARITBD54.99%TBD
NYASEAIvan Nova vs Hisashi IwakumaNYATBD54.88%TBD
SDSFJason Marquis vs Tim LincecumSFTBD62.13%TBD
TBBALDavid Price vs Miguel GonzalezTBTBD50.93%TBD
OAKTORA.J. Griffin vs Ricky RomeroTORTBD52.95%TBD
CINHOUHomer Bailey vs Bud NorrisCINTBD51.47%TBD
LANSTLAaron Harang vs Kyle LohseSTLTBD62.00%TBD

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

July 24th Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
BOSTEXClay Buchholz vs Martin PerezTEX56.04%59.57%- - -
DETCLEDoug Fister vs Ubaldo JimenezDET53.60%57.74%- - -
KCLAAWil Smith vs Garrett RichardsLAA61.83%58.58%- - -
MINCHACole DeVries vs Jose QuintanaCHA61.83%58.19%- - -
CHNPITPaul Maholm vs James McDonaldPIT60.40%57.58%- - -
MILPHIZach Greinke vs Cliff LeePHI55.85%58.02%- - -
TBBALJeremy Hellickson vs Wei-Yin ChenBAL54.65%58.25%- - -
OAKTORTravis Blackley vs Brett CecilTOR55.85%50.37%- - -
ATLFLATim Hudson vs Mark BuehrleFLA50.74%53.26%- - -
WASNYNGio Gonzalez vs R.A. DickeyNYN51.57%55.23%- - -
CINHOUMike Leake vs Lucas HarrellCIN57.17%55.61%- - -
LANSTLClayton Kershaw vs Adam WainwrightSTL55.06%59.30%- - -
COLARIEdwar Cabrera vs Joe SaundersARI60.40%56.85%- - -
NYASEAFreddy Garcia vs Jason VargasSEA53.05%45.05%NYA, 2.5u
SDSFEdinson Volquez vs Madison BumgarnerSF62.19%64.08%- - -

Previous Day: NA
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Monday, July 23, 2012

July 23rd Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALCLETommy Hunter vs Justin MastersonCLETBD59.78%TBD
BOSTEXFelix Doubront vs Scott FeldmanTEXTBD57.06%TBD
KCLAABruce Chen vs C.J. WilsonLAATBD62.87%TBD
MINCHAFrancisco Liriano vs Gavin FloydCHATBD51.37%TBD
CHNPITJeff Samardzija vs Erik BedardPITTBD57.38%TBD
MILPHIRandy Wolf vs Roy HalladayPHITBD65.06%TBD
ATLFLAMike Minor vs Josh JohnsonFLATBD61.06%TBD
WASNYNJordan Zimmerman vs Chris YoungWASTBD52.26%TBD
CINHOUMat Latos vs Wandy RodriguezCINTBD57.89%TBD
LANSTLChad Billingsley vs Joe KellySTLTBD53.44%TBD
COLARIJonathan Sanchez vs Ian KennedyARITBD61.91%TBD
NYASEAHiroki Kuroda vs Kevin MillwoodNYATBD54.34%TBD
SDSFClayton Richard vs Ryan VogelsongSFTBD55.95%TBD

Previous Day: NA
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 22, 2012

July 22nd Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
BALCLEZach Britton vs Josh TomlinCLE56.43%51.82%- - -
COLSDChris Friedrich vs Ross OhlendorfCOL50.25%49.19%- - -
MILCINMichael Fiers vs Johnny CuetoCIN57.17%56.08%- - -
MINKCSamuel Deduno vs Jeremy GuthrieKC56.04%56.26%- - -
SEATBBlake Beavan vs Matt MooreTB63.96%59.24%- - -
SFPHIBarry Zito vs Joe BlantonPHI58.07%60.12%- - -
TEXLAAMatt Harrison vs Dan HarenTEX50.25%49.97%- - -
TORBOSHenderson Alvarez vs Jon LesterBOS62.62%65.84%- - -
CHADETPhil Humber vs Jacob TurnerDET52.27%57.64%- - -
LANNYNNathan Eovaldi vs John NieseNYN59.43%64.66%- - -
ATLWASJair Jurrjens vs Ross DetwilerWAS55.46%57.77%- - -
FLAPITAnibal Sanchez vs Jeff KarstensPIT53.60%52.03%- - -
CHNSTLTravis Wood vs Lance LynnSTL65.64%73.59%- - -
NYAOAKC.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo ColonNYA62.89%58.60%- - -
HOUARIJordan Lyles vs Josh CollmenterARI67.21%66.49%- - -

Today's Pitching Matchups

Previous Day: -2.8 units on ML
Current ML ROI: 2.45%
No bets Today!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, July 21, 2012

July 21st Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
BALCLEChris Tillman vs Zach McAllisterCLE59.27%60.0%- - -
COLSDJeff Francis vs Kip WellsCOL51.81%46.5%SD, 0.7
MILCINYovanni Gallardo vs Bronson ArroyoCIN50.86%53.0%- - -
MINKCScott Diamond vs Luis MendozaKC54.65%50.0%MIN, 0.7
SEATBJason Vargas vs Alex CobbTB58.93%61.5%TB, 0.7
TEXLAAYu Darvish vs Ervin SantanaTEX54.23%49.5%LAA, 0.7
TORBOSCarlos Villanueva vs Aaron CookBOS55.46%59.0%BOS, 0.7
LANNYNChris Capuano vs Miguel BatistaLAN53.81%51.5%- - -
CHNSTLMatt Garza vs Jake WestbrookSTL57.36%56.5%- - -
SFPHIMatt Cain vs Cole HamelsPHI56.04%54.0%- - -
ATLWASBen Sheets vs Edwin JacksonWAS52.94%56.0%WAS, 0.7
ATLWASRandall Delgado vs John LannanWAS52.49%53.5%- - -
CHADETChris Sale vs Rick PorcelloCHA53.16%50.5%DET, 0.7
FLAPITCarlos Zambrano vs A.J. BurnettPIT56.04%60.0%PIT, 0.7
HOUARIDallas Keuchel vs Wade MileyARI63.03%63.0%- - -
NYAOAKPhil Hughes vs Jarrod ParkerNYA55.06%53.05%- - -

Previous Day: -5.3 units (risked 9.3u) ML and +0.7 units (risked 2.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 2.95%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets:  -0.01%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets:  +9.07%

Notes:  Tough day yesterday mostly due to the Nationals amazing failure last night of holding a 9-0 lead in a game that Stephen Strasburg started. The failure was not his fault but it was a truly amazing comeback by the Braves. Today, I am trying something a little bit new. I am going to just make flat ML bets on games that meet a certain threshold. I may return to the Kelly Criterion for betting at a later time, but it is time to try something different that a few readers have suggested trying.  I am also rounding of the sim output to the nearest half.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Friday, July 20, 2012

July 20th Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALCLEMiguel Gonzalez vs Derek LoweCLE56.04%55.96%- - -
COLSDDrew Pomeranz vs Jason MarquisSD50.25%54.62%SD, 1.6u
MILCINMarco Estrada vs Homer BaileyCIN56.04%48.98%MIL, 2.4u
MINKCNick Blackburn vs Luke HochevarKC57.89%58.54%- - -
SEATBHisashi Iwakuma vs James ShieldsTB63.17%62.81%- - -
TEXLAADerek Holland vs Jered WeaverLAA58.76%57.32%TEX, 0.3u
TORBOSAaron Laffey vs Josh BeckettBOS62.76%62.38%- - -
ATLWASTommy Hanson vs Stephen StrasburgWAS58.93%63.80%WAS, 2.2u
CHADETJake Peavy vs Justin VerlanderDET62.76%59.82%CHA, 0.8u
FLAPITRicky Nolasco vs Kevin CorreiaPIT50.74%50.80%- - -
SFPHITim Lincecum vs Vance WorleyPHI55.06%56.41%PHI, 0.4u
LANNYNAaron Harang vs Johan SantanaNYN58.25%58.08%- - -
CHNSTLRyan Dempster vs Kyle LohseSTL59.27%57.63%CHN, 0.4u
HOUARIBud Norris vs Trevor CahillARI64.73%61.67%HOU, 0.8u
NYAOAKIvan Nova vs Tom MiloneNYA54.23%52.68%OAK, 0.4u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAN vs NYN, Over 7.5 -110, 0.8 units
CHN vs STL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.8 units
HOU vs ARI, Over 9.0 +105, 0.8 units

Previous Day: +1.9 units (risked 4.4u) ML and -4.4 units (risked 4.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 3.94%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: 9.7%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: 26.0%

Notes:  A good day on the ML bets going 5-2, but a bad day on the Run Totals going 0-3.  Going to tone down the Run Total bets until I start doing a little better there.  Today's biggest bet will be on the Brewers, who have Marco Estrada pitching.  He may only have 47 innings of starting pitching so far this year but his peripherals have been amazing.  They are sure to regress, but he is much better than his ERA and W/L 0-3 record suggest.  Other decent size bets are with the Nationals and Strasburg along with the Padres facing a shaky Colorado Rockies team.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, July 19, 2012

July 19th Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
ARICINJoe Saunders vs Mike LeakeCIN57.54%58.09%- - -
CHABOSJose Quintana vs Clay BuchholzBOS54.85%53.18%CHA, 0.4u
CLETBUbaldo Jimenez vs David PriceTB61.83%63.47%TB, 0.6u
HOUSDLucas Harrell vs Edinson VolquezSD59.10%56.71%- - -
SEAKCFelix Hernandez vs Wil SmithSEA55.06%53.48%- - -
SFATLMadison Bumgarner vs Tim HudsonATL52.94%52.14%- - -
NYNWASR.A. Dickey vs Gio GonzalezWAS55.65%54.31%NYN, 0.3u
LAADETJerome Williams vs Max ScherzerDET57.36%58.28%DET, 0.2u
BALMINWei-Yin Chen vs Cole DeVriesMIN50.86%53.58%MIN, 0.9u
FLACHNMark Buehrle vs Paul MaholmFLA54.65%50.29%CHN, 1.4u
NYAOAKFreddy Garcia vs A.J. GriffinNYA53.38%51.36%OAK, 0.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
NYN vs WAS, Under 7.5 -120, 1.4 units
HOU vs SD, Over 6.5 +100, 1.0 units
NYA vs OAK, Over 7.5 -115, 2.0 units

Previous Day: +4.5 units (risked 7.1u) ML and -1.5 units (risked 1.5u) on Run Totals
Current ML ROI: 3.61%

Notes: Big win on the Tigers game yesterday with the ML bet and almost nailed the Run Total bet too but the Angels tacked on a meaningless 9th inning run for the push. Big bet today is the Yankees and Athletics going over 7.5 runs and the Cubs beating the Marlins on the ML.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

July 18th Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
ARICINIan Kennedy vs Mat LatosCIN57.72%55.33%ARI, 0.7u
CHABOSPedro Hernandez vs Felix DoubrontBOS62.05%61.36%- - -
CLETBJustin Masterson vs Jeremy HellicksonCLE50.62%49.63%- - -
HOUSDWandy Rodriguez vs Clayton RichardSD56.99%54.21%- - -
PHILANCliff Lee vs Clayton KershawLAN51.22%51.31%- - -
SEAKCKevin Millwood vs Bruce ChenKC55.85%55.40%- - -
SFATLRyan Vogelsong vs Mike MinorATL52.72%54.74%ATL, 0.6u
TORNYARicky Romero vs Hiroki KurodaNYA63.17%63.02%- - -
STLMILAdam Wainwright vs Tyler ThornburgSTL57.72%54.91%MIL, 0.8u
PITCOLJames McDonald vs Jeremy GuthriePIT54.44%51.72%COL, 0.8u
TEXOAKColby Lewis vs Travis BlackleyTEX55.65%55.70%- - -
LAADETC.J. Wilson vs Doug FisterLAA50.86%44.27%DET, 2.4u
NYNWASChris Young vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS59.60%59.56%- - -
FLACHNJosh Johnson vs Jeff SamardzijaFLA55.26%50.52%CHN, 1.5u
BALMINTommy Hunter vs Francisco LirianoMIN58.07%59.09%MIN, 0.3u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAA vs DET, Under 9 +104, 3.0 units
SEA vs KC, Under 9 +110, 1.5 units

Previous Day: +2.7 units on 9.1 units risked
Current ML ROI: 2.85%

Notes: The simulator thinks that the Vegas odds are off on the Angels vs Tigers game. The simulator thinks Fister is a stronger pitcher and Wilson a weaker pitcher than Vegas does and also believes that the game will be much lower scoring than Vegas does. The main disagreement appears to be from Fister.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

July 17th Simulations?



Sorry, no time to post today's simulation results. Life got in the way! :)


Monday, July 16, 2012

July 16th Simulation Results



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
ARICINWade Miley vs Bronson ArroyoCIN55.26%55.98%- - -
CHABOSDylan Axelrod vs Aaron CookBOS55.26%53.11%CHA, 0.6u
CLETBZach McAllister vs Alex CobbTB56.24%55.12%CLE, 0.3u
HOUSDJ.A. Happ vs Kip WellsSD53.60%51.20%- - -
PHILANJoe Blanton vs Nathan EovaldiPHI51.34%52.44%- - -
SEAKCJason Vargas vs Jonathan SanchezKC51.57%54.88%KC, 1.2u
LAADETErvin Santana vs Rick PorcelloDET53.16%56.33%DET, 1.0u
TORNYAHenderson Alvarez vs Phil HughesNYA63.03%59.77%TOR, 0.8u
WASFLAEdwin Jackson vs Carlos ZambranoFLA50.74%50.02%- - -
BALMINChris Tillman vs Scott DiamondMIN54.02%55.25%MIN, 0.2u
STLMILLance Lynn vs Michael FiersMIL52.27%52.96%- - -
PITCOLJeff Karstens vs Jeff FrancisCOL53.81%49.18%PIT, 1.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
STL vs MIL, Under 8.5 +100, 1.5 units
HOU vs SD, Over 7 +105, 0.5 units
CLE vs TB, Under 8.5 +100, 1.5 units

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ML ROI: 3.27%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 15, 2012

July 15th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAANYAJered Weaver vs Ivan NovaLAA51.57%48.08%TBD
BOSTBJosh Beckett vs James ShieldsTB50.74%51.52%TBD
CHAKCChris Sale vs Luis MendozaCHA59.27%56.09%TBD
NYNATLJohan Santana vs Ben SheetsATL50.25%51.15%TBD
SDLANJason Marquis vs Chad BillingsleyLAN60.40%61.71%TBD
STLCINJake Westbrook vs Homer BaileyCIN52.04%51.80%TBD
CLETORDerek Lowe vs Carlos VillanuevaTOR57.36%51.98%TBD
WASFLAStephen Strasburg vs Ricky NolascoWAS56.62%54.60%TBD
DETBALJustin Verlander vs Miguel GonzalezDET61.69%57.28%TBD
OAKMINJarrod Parker vs Brian DuensingMIN51.10%51.29%TBD
PITMILA.J. Burnett vs Yovanni GallardoMIL57.89%55.09%TBD
ARICHNTrevor Cahill vs Matt GarzaCHN52.04%55.77%TBD
PHICOLCole Hamels vs Drew PomeranzPHI54.85%55.56%TBD
HOUSFBud Norris vs Matt CainSF68.75%66.15%TBD
TEXSEAMatt Harrison vs Hisashi IwakumaTEX61.54%61.05%TBD

No bets today!

Previous Day: +3.5 Units
Current ML ROI: 3.27%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, July 14, 2012

July 14th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
BOSTBClay Buchholz vs David PriceTB60.08%57.15%BOS, 0.8u
CHAKCJake Peavy vs Luke HochevarCHA54.44%55.08%- - -
NYNATLR.A. Dickey vs Tommy HansonATL51.34%52.09%- - -
PHICOLVance Worley vs Jeremy GuthriePHI54.44%52.00%- - -
SDLANEdinson Volquez vs Aaron HarangLAN56.43%58.91%LAN, 0.8u
STLCINKyle Lohse vs Mike LeakeCIN52.26%56.11%CIN, 1.1u
LAANYAJerome Williams vs Freddy GarciaNYA56.80%56.12%- - -
CLETORUbaldo Jimenez vs Aaron LaffeyTOR53.38%58.22%TOR, 1.5u
ARICHNJoe Saunders vs Ryan DempsterCHN54.85%55.94%CHN, 0.2u
DETBALMax Scherzer vs Wei-Yin ChenDET52.49%50.07%BAL, 0.6u
OAKMINTom Milone vs Cole DeVriesMIN52.72%52.13%- - -
PITMILKevin Correia vs Marco EstradaMIL57.17%57.10%- - -
WASFLAGio Gonzalez vs Mark BuehrleFLA50.74%47.12%WAS, 0.9u
HOUSFLucas Harrell vs Tim LincecumSF62.26%59.05%- - -
TEXSEAYu Darvish vs Felx HernandezTEX52.27%52.89%- - -

Run Total Bets:
Pirates vs Brewers, Risking 2.0 units to win 2.0 units, Over 9 runs
Nationals vs Marlins, Risking 1.0 unit to win 1.0 unit, Under 7-1/2 runs

Previous Day: 5.8 units of Run Total bets; 3.1 units won
Current ML ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Friday, July 13, 2012

July 13th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSTBFranklin Morales vs Jeremy HellicksonBOS50.86%49.68%TBD
CHAKCJose Quintana vs Bruce ChenKC55.65%55.64%TBD
NYNATLChris Young vs Tim HudsonATL59.76%61.91%TBD
SDLANClayton Richard vs Clayton KershawLAN65.22%63.20%TBD
STLCINAdam Wainwright vs Mat LatosCIN53.81%51.76%TBD
ARICHNIan Kennedy vs Paul MaholmARI56.43%58.28%TBD
LAANYAC.J. Wilson vs Hiroki KurodaNYA52.49%50.50%TBD
DETBALDoug Fister vs Jason HammelBAL51.57%53.68%TBD
CLETORJustin Masterson vs Ricky RomeroTOR53.81%50.25%TBD
WASFLAJordan Zimmerman vs Josh JohnsonFLA54.02%58.51%TBD
OAKMINA.J. Griffin vs Francisco LirianoMIN56.80%60.55%TBD
PITMILJames McDonald vs Zach GreinkeMIL58.93%61.74%TBD
PHICOLCliff Lee vs Chris FriedrichPHI59.43%55.70%TBD
TEXSEADerek Holland vs Kevin MillwoodTEX56.80%54.24%TBD
HOUSFJordan Lyles vs Madison BumgarnerSF68.75%69.45%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 08, 2012

July 8th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLPHIJair Jurrjens vs Vance WorleyPHI55.06%54.02%TBD
BALLAAWei-Yin Chen vs Brad MillsLAANA50.25%TBD
CINSDJohnny Cueto vs Jason MarquisCIN59.76%59.98%TBD
MINTEXCole DeVries vs Roy OswaltTEX65.40%65.04%TBD
NYABOSIvan Nova vs Jon LesterBOS53.27%52.49%TBD
TBCLEJames Shields vs Zach McAllisterCLE51.10%48.11%TBD
TORCHABrett Cecil vs Dylan AxelrodCHA55.26%56.88%TBD
KCDETEverett Teaford vs Max ScherzerDET62.76%64.12%TBD
CHNNYNRyan Dempster vs John NieseNYN57.89%57.98%TBD
COLWASJeremy Guthrie vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS64.97%62.34%TBD
SFPITTim Lincecum vs A.J. BurnettPIT54.23%55.79%TBD
MILHOUMarco Estrada vs Jordan LylesMIL55.85%51.21%TBD
FLASTLAnibal Sanchez vs Joe KellySTL54.65%49.26%TBD
SEAOAKFelx Hernandez vs Bartolo ColonSEA52.49%49.23%TBD
LANARIChris Capuano vs Trevor BauerARI54.02%57.20%TBD

Previous Day: -1.8 units
Current ROI: 3.21%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

With Trevor Bauer pitching today against the Dodgers here is some ridiculous video of him long tossing 400? feet before he pitches.

Friday, July 06, 2012

July 7th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bet
BALLAAJason Hammel vs Jered WeaverLAA63.70%58.99%BAL, 1.4u
CINSDHomer Bailey vs Clayton RichardCIN51.57%49.91%- - -
MINTEXSamuel Deduno vs Derek HollandTEX66.10%62.09%MIN, 0.6u
NYABOSPhil Hughes vs Felix DoubrontBOSNA53.71%- - -
SEAOAKJason Vargas vs Jarrod ParkerOAK58.76%57.34%OAK, 0.8u
TBCLEMatt Moore vs Ubaldo JimenezCLE52.72%51.87%TB, 0.7u
TORCHARicky Romero vs Gavin FloydCHA57.72%56.92%- - -
FLASTLCarlos Zambrano vs Kyle LohseSTL59.10%56.30%STL, 0.8u
COLWASJeff Francis vs Gio GonzalezWAS65.93%63.77%- - -
SFPITRyan Vogelsong vs James McDonaldPIT53.38%50.74%PIT, 0.6u
KCDETBruce Chen vs Doug FisterDET59.76%61.69%DET, 1.4u
MILHOUZach Greinke vs Wandy RodriguezMIL59.92%61.06%- - -
CHNNYNJeff Samardzija vs Dillon GeeNYN57.72%60.28%NYN, 1.4u
ATLPHITommy Hanson vs Joe BlantonPHI50.25%53.53%PHI, 1.1u
LANARIChad Billingsley vs Trevor CahillARI60.08%58.74%LAN, 0.2u

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 6th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALLAAMiguel Gonzalez vs C.J. WilsonLAA64.91%64.68%TBD
CINSDBronson Arroyo vs Kip WellsCIN53.70%55.79%TBD
MINTEXFrancisco Liriano vs Martin PerezTEX59.35%59.40%TBD
NYABOSHiroki Kuroda vs Josh BeckettNYA52.15%46.09%TBD
TBCLEAlex Cobb vs Justin MastersonCLE57.81%61.07%TBD
TORCHAAaron Laffey vs Jake PeavyCHA59.35%63.89%TBD
ATLPHITim Hudson vs Kyle KendrickATL53.70%51.59%TBD
COLWASDrew Pomeranz vs Stephen StrasburgWAS67.21%68.19%TBD
KCDETJonathan Sanchez vs Drew SmylyDET64.91%62.35%TBD
SFPITBarry Zito vs Erik BedardPIT58.85%55.28%TBD
CHNNYNTravis Wood vs Johan SantanaNYN61.83%63.77%TBD
MILHOUYovanni Gallardo vs J.A. HappMIL56.90%53.95%TBD
FLASTLRicky Nolasco vs Jake WestbrookSTL57.265%57.261%TBD
LANARIClayton Kershaw vs Josh CollmenterLAN51.46%47.42%TBD
SEAOAKKevin Millwood vs Tom MiloneOAK60.78%55.13%TBD

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Trying something new today as I have a little extra time to run simulations and study output data. I am making a few prop bets for fun with some of the house money I have earned. I have been spinning my wheels on money line bets the past month and a half so I am giving this a go. Below are my prop bets for today. (And it turned out to be a dumb thing to try!)
* 4 units (-110) on Josh Willingham to have more total bases than Nelson Cruz. (Loss, -4 units)
* 2.2 units (-115) for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks to have less than 25-1/2 combined runs+hits+errors. (Loss, -2.2 units)
* 1 unit (+150) that the Astros score first against the Brewers. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Diamondbacks score first against the Dodgers (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Padres score first against the Reds. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+120) that no runs are scored in the 1st inning Twins vs Rangers. (Win, +1.2 units)

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, July 05, 2012

July 5th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALLAAJake Arrieta vs Garrett RichardsLAA59.60%55.44%TBD
CHNATLMatt Garza vs Mike MinorATL55.06%63.06%TBD
CINSDMat Latos vs Edinson VolquezCIN56.99%55.57%TBD
TBCLEJeremy Hellickson vs Josh TomlinCLE51.34%60.65%TBD
TEXCHAMatt Harrison vs Jose QuintanaTEX56.04%56.98%TBD
MINDETScott Diamond vs Rick PorcelloDET58.25%56.15%TBD
FLAMILMark Buehrle vs Michael FiersMIL55.26%54.92%TBD
HOUPITBud Norris vs Jeff KarstensPIT57.17%52.65%TBD
SFWASMatt Cain vs Ross DetwilerSF54.02%54.98%TBD
KCTORLuke Hochevar vs Henderson AlvarezTOR56.43%46.67%TBD
PHINYNCole Hamels vs R.A. DickeyNYN55.46%50.89%TBD
COLSTLChris Friedrich vs Lance LynnSTL65.64%63.73%TBD
LANARINathan Eovaldi vs Wade MileyARI61.83%64.75%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Independence Day Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEErvin Santana vs Derek LoweCLE50.00%52.95%TBD
CHNATLPaul Maholm vs Randall DelgadoATL62.12%64.82%TBD
CINLANMike Leake vs Aaron HarangCIN56.90%54.40%TBD
NYATBDavid Phelps vs David PriceTB59.51%55.05%TBD
TEXCHAScott Feldman vs Dylan AxelrodTEX52.15%55.13%TBD
SFWASMadison Bumgarner vs Edwin JacksonWASTBD52.67%TBD
PHINYNCliff Lee vs Chris YoungPHITBD60.83%TBD
HOUPITDallas Keuchel vs Kevin CorreiaPITTBD56.11%TBD
BOSOAKAaron Cook vs A.J. GriffinOAK54.13%51.36%TBD
BALSEAChris Tillman vs Hector NoesiSEA50.00%50.04%TBD
FLAMILJosh Johnson vs Randy WolfFLA55.56%56.98%TBD
MINDETBrian Duensing vs Justin VerlanderDET71.83%63.66%TBD
KCTORLuis Mendoza vs Carlos VillanuevaTOR59.02%48.93%TBD
COLSTLJeremy Guthrie vs Adam WainwrightSTL65.81%62.34%TBD
SDARIJason Marquis vs Ian KennedyARI65.81%69.64%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, July 03, 2012

July 3rd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEDan Haren vs Zach McAllisterCLETBD52.40%TBD
CHNATLChris Volstad vs Jair JurrjensATLTBD64.94%TBD
CINLANJohnny Cueto vs Chris CapuanoCINTBD54.37%TBD
NYATBIvan Nova vs James ShieldsNYATBD54.13%TBD
TEXCHARoy Oswalt vs Chris SaleCHATBD51.04%TBD
FLAMILAnibal Sanchez vs Marco EstradaFLATBD54.04%TBD
SFWASTim Lincecum vs Jordan ZimmermanWASTBD52.60%TBD
HOUPITLucas Harrell vs A.J. BurnettPITTBD59.12%TBD
MINDETNick Blackburn vs Duane BelowDETTBD63.21%TBD
KCTORVin Mazzaro vs Brett CecilTORTBD53.32%TBD
PHINYNVance Worley vs John NiesePHITBD54.40%TBD
COLSTLJeff Francis vs Joe KellySTLTBD56.09%TBD
SDARIAndrew Cashner vs Trevor BauerARITBD61.44%TBD
BOSOAKJon Lester vs Bartolo ColonBOSTBD52.94%TBD
BALSEAWei-Yin Chen vs Felx HernandezSEATBD59.28%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, July 01, 2012

July 2nd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACLEJered Weaver vs Ubaldo JimenezLAA57.54%57.10%TBD
CHNATLJeff Samardzija vs Tommy HansonATL64.35%62.83%TBD
CINLANHomer Bailey vs Chad BillingsleyCIN54.02%48.91%TBD
NYATBFreddy Garcia vs Matt MooreTB54.03%49.34%TBD
HOUPITJordan Lyles vs James McDonaldPIT62.48%65.54%TBD
MINDETLiam Hendriks vs Doug FisterDET64.22%65.70%TBD
KCTOREverett Teaford vs Ricky RomeroTOR60.86%55.79%TBD
FLAMILCarlos Zambrano vs Zach GreinkeMIL61.32%61.86%TBD
COLSTLJosh Outman vs Kyle LohseSTL65.64%60.22%TBD
SDARIClayton Richard vs Trevor CahillARI60.86%61.87%TBD
BOSOAKDaisuke Matsuzaka vs Jarrod ParkerBOS50.74%49.25%TBD
BALSEAJason Hammel vs Hisashi IwakumaBAL54.85%53.03%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 1st Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHANYAGavin Floyd vs Phil HughesNYA59.02%62.89%TBD
DETTBDrew Smyly vs Alex CobbTB53.05%47.23%TBD
NYNLANDillon Gee vs Clayton KershawLAN57.81%54.62%TBD
OAKTEXTravis Blackley vs Yu DarvishTEX66.67%68.62%TBD
WASATLGio Gonzalez vs Tim HudsonATL51.46%51.80%TBD
PHIFLAJoe Blanton vs Ricky NolascoFLA51.46%52.15%TBD
CLEBALJustin Masterson vs Brian MatuszCLE51.46%48.00%TBD
ARIMILJosh Collmenter vs Yovanni GallardoMIL57.45%55.47%TBD
KCMINBruce Chen vs Francisco LirianoMIN55.95%52.00%TBD
PITSTLErik Bedard vs Jake WestbrookSTL62.12%61.11%TBD
HOUCHNWandy Rodriguez vs Travis WoodCHN51.92%51.69%TBD
LAATORC.J. Wilson vs Aaron LaffeyLAA59.02%60.67%TBD
SDCOLKip Wells vs Drew PomeranzCOL60.16%63.16%TBD
CINSFBronson Arroyo vs Ryan VogelsongSF57.45%55.20%TBD
BOSSEAFelix Doubront vs Jason VargasBOS55.16%55.73%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard