Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Sunday's Simulation Results

                                                 *** Simulation Results ***

Away	Home	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Favorite	Runs/Game	Runs/Game	Win %	Total R/G
Dbacks	Dodgers	Josh Collmenter	Josh Beckett	Dodgers	3.43661	3.90545	58.148	7.34206

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurrences		Rank	Dbacks	Dodgers	Occurrences
1	2	3	4641		51	7	5	620
2	3	4	3999		52	7	6	601
3	1	2	3870		53	0	7	570
4	3	2	2954		54	7	1	552
5	1	3	2750		55	2	8	522
6	4	5	2746		56	1	8	506
7	2	4	2744		57	8	3	506
8	4	3	2582		58	3	8	488
9	2	1	2510		59	6	0	484
10	1	4	2248		60	8	4	438
11	4	2	2083		61	8	2	434
12	2	5	2027		62	5	8	396
13	3	5	2008		63	4	8	395
14	3	1	1982		64	8	5	380
15	0	1	1868		65	8	1	370
16	0	2	1844		66	0	8	369
17	0	3	1822		67	7	8	362
18	5	4	1783		68	2	9	356
19	5	3	1740		69	7	0	343
20	5	6	1701		70	1	9	329
21	1	5	1637		71	8	6	323
22	4	1	1631		72	3	9	316
23	5	2	1543		73	9	3	303
24	0	4	1483		74	6	8	292
25	3	6	1320		75	8	7	290
26	2	6	1280		76	4	9	277
27	1	0	1206		77	2	10	256
28	2	0	1180		78	9	4	256
29	1	6	1148		79	9	2	246
30	5	1	1135		80	9	1	231
31	0	5	1125		81	0	9	224
32	4	6	1101		82	9	5	222
33	6	3	1087		83	5	9	221
34	6	4	1087		84	1	10	214
35	6	5	1067		85	8	0	208
36	6	2	1049		86	3	10	181
37	3	0	1047		87	9	6	180
38	2	7	894		88	10	3	164
39	6	1	849		89	10	2	163
40	0	6	837		90	8	9	159
41	1	7	826		91	10	4	150
42	3	7	812		92	4	10	147
43	6	7	800		93	6	9	147
44	4	0	783		94	10	5	141
45	4	7	737		95	0	10	137
46	7	3	712		96	7	9	134
47	7	2	707		97	10	1	134
48	7	4	695		98	9	7	131
49	5	0	630		99	9	8	127
50	5	7	620		100	2	11	125

July 6th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BAL	LAA	Miguel Gonzalez vs C.J. Wilson	LAA	64.91%	64.68%	TBD
CIN	SD	Bronson Arroyo vs Kip Wells	CIN	53.70%	55.79%	TBD
MIN	TEX	Francisco Liriano vs Martin Perez	TEX	59.35%	59.40%	TBD
NYA	BOS	Hiroki Kuroda vs Josh Beckett	NYA	52.15%	46.09%	TBD
TB	CLE	Alex Cobb vs Justin Masterson	CLE	57.81%	61.07%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Aaron Laffey vs Jake Peavy	CHA	59.35%	63.89%	TBD
ATL	PHI	Tim Hudson vs Kyle Kendrick	ATL	53.70%	51.59%	TBD
COL	WAS	Drew Pomeranz vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	67.21%	68.19%	TBD
KC	DET	Jonathan Sanchez vs Drew Smyly	DET	64.91%	62.35%	TBD
SF	PIT	Barry Zito vs Erik Bedard	PIT	58.85%	55.28%	TBD
CHN	NYN	Travis Wood vs Johan Santana	NYN	61.83%	63.77%	TBD
MIL	HOU	Yovanni Gallardo vs J.A. Happ	MIL	56.90%	53.95%	TBD
FLA	STL	Ricky Nolasco vs Jake Westbrook	STL	57.265%	57.261%	TBD
LAN	ARI	Clayton Kershaw vs Josh Collmenter	LAN	51.46%	47.42%	TBD
SEA	OAK	Kevin Millwood vs Tom Milone	OAK	60.78%	55.13%	TBD

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Trying something new today as I have a little extra time to run simulations and study output data. I am making a few prop bets for fun with some of the house money I have earned. I have been spinning my wheels on money line bets the past month and a half so I am giving this a go. Below are my prop bets for today. (And it turned out to be a dumb thing to try!)
* 4 units (-110) on Josh Willingham to have more total bases than Nelson Cruz. (Loss, -4 units)
* 2.2 units (-115) for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks to have less than 25-1/2 combined runs+hits+errors. (Loss, -2.2 units)
* 1 unit (+150) that the Astros score first against the Brewers. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Diamondbacks score first against the Dodgers (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Padres score first against the Reds. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+120) that no runs are scored in the 1st inning Twins vs Rangers. (Win, +1.2 units)

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 29th Simulations

Deadline Passes On Dodgers Season ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Collmenter vs T.Lilly	DBacks	52.27%	51.20%	LAN 9-5
Royals	Indians	J.Francis vs C.Carrasco	Indians	55.46%	56.50%	KC 12-0
Rockies	Padres	J.Hammel vs T.Stauffer	Padres	54.02%	55.60%	COL 3-2
Rangers	Blue Jays	A.Ogando vs B.Cecil	Rangers	54.65%	55.60%	TOR 3-2
Marlins	Braves	C.Hensley vs B.Beachy	Braves	60.86%	62.93%	FLA 5-0
Angels	Tigers	T.Chatwood vs R.Porcello	Tigers	58.07%	61.20%	DET 12-2
Mets	Nationals	D.Gee vs C.Wang	Mets	52.941%	52.936%	NYN 8-5
Twins	Athletics	F.Liriano vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	57.17%	55.86%	MIN 9-5
Pirates	Phillies	C.Morton vs R.Halladay	Phillies	72.30%	67.64%	PHI 10-3
Red Sox	White Sox	T.Wakefield vs G.Floyd	White Sox	50.62%	52.07%	CHA 3-1
Rays	Mariners	J.Niemann vs E.Bedard	Rays	50.62%	46.85%	TB 8-0
Orioles	Yankees	J.Guthrie vs A.Burnett	Yankees	65.22%	60.54%	BAL 4-2
Astros	Brewers	J.Lyles vs R.Wolf	Brewers	63.57%	63.41%	MIL 4-0
Cubs	Cardinals	M.Garza vs E.Jackson	Cardinals	55.46%	63.97%	STL 9-2
Giants	Reds	R.Vogelsong vs D.Willis	Reds	50.86%	52.02%	CIN 4-3

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