Sunday, December 27, 2009

2010 NL East WAR


Last updated 1/14

NL East
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Phillies 30.6 17.4 46.5 94.5
Braves 22.4 20.4 46.5 89.3
Mets 22.4 14.0 46.5 82.9
Marlins 18.7 13.3 46.5 78.5
Nationals 18.5 6.9 46.5 71.9

Top 10 NL East WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Chase Utley Phillies 8.1
2 Hanley Ramirez Marlins 7.4
3 Roy Halladay Phillies 6.7
4 David Wright Mets 6.4
4 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 6.4
6 Brian McCann Braves 5.5
7 Jose Reyes Mets 5.2
7 Josh Johnson Marlins 5.2
9 Johan Santana Mets 4.7
10 Chipper Jones Braves 4.6
10 Tommy Hanson Braves 4.5

Update Notes:
12/29: Jason Bay projections added for Mets
1/14: Adjusted C.Beltran down (injury) & updated Top 10 list.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

2010 NL Central WAR


Not breaking down the details like I did in the NL West version, but here are the results. Last updated 1/5

NL Central
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Cardinals 24.4 19.1 48.0 91.5
Cubs 20.1 13.7 48.0 81.8
Brewers 20.4 9.7 48.0 78.1
Reds 16.2 10.7 48.0 74.9
Astros 16.3 9.7 48.0 74.0
Pirates 13.9 9.6 48.0 71.5
Top 10 NL Central WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Albert Pujols Cardinals 7.5
2 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 5.5
3 Prince Fielder Brewers 5.3
4 Ryan Braun Brewers 5.1
5 Matt Holliday Cardinals 5.0
6 Joey Votto Reds 4.9
6 Aramis Ramirez Cubs 4.9
6 Chris Carpenter Cardinals 4.9
9 Andrew McCutchen Pirates 4.6
10 Lance Berkman Astros 4.4
Changes Made
1/5: Adjusted A.Pujols from 8.0 to 7.5 WAR
1/5: Added Matt Holiday @ 5.0 WAR to Cardinals lineup

Friday, December 18, 2009

2010 NL West WAR


It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

  Rockies Dodgers Giants DBacks Padres
Pos Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR
C C.Iannetta 2.5 R.Martin 3.0 B.Molina 1.2 M.Montero 3.3 N.Hundley 2.2
1B T.Helton 3.8 J.Loney 1.8 A.Huff 1.4 A.LaRoche 1.5 A.Gonzalez 5.2
2B C.Barmes 1.8 B.Dewitt 1.5 F.Sanchez 2.2 K.Johnson 2.5 D.Eckstein 0.6
3B I.Stewart 1.8 C.Blake 3.5 P.Sandoval 5.0 M.Reynolds 3.9 K.Kouzmanoff 3.0
SS T.Tulowitzki 6.0 R.Furcal 2.9 E.Renteria 1.0 S.Drew 2.2 E.Cabrera 1.7
LF S.Smith 2.7 M.Ramirez 3.8 M.DeRosa 2.3 C.Jackson 2.5 C.Headley 2.4
CF C.Gonzalez 4.0 M.Kemp 5.4 A.Rowand 1.7 C.Young 1.0 W.Venable 2.3
RF B.Hawpe 1.8 A.Ethier 3.3 N.Schierholtz 1.7 J.Upton 5.5 T.Gwynn 2.8
UT D.Fowler 1.8 J.Carroll 0.3 A.Torres 1.6 G.Parra 1.0 K.Blanks 1.2
BN Bench 2.0 Bench 0.6 Bench 3.2 Bench 1.1 Bench 0.8
Misc Sucktitude -4.7   -4.0   -5.5   -6.0   -7.9
 
Pitchers
SP1 U.Jimenez 5.1 C.Kershaw 4.4 T.Lincecum 7.0 D.Haren 5.5 K.Correia 2.3
SP2 J.de la Rosa 3.0 C.Billingsley 3.5 M.Cain 4.0 B.Webb 5.0 C.Richard 2.0
SP3 J.Hammel 2.9 H.Kuroda 2.5 J.Sanchez 2.4 E.Jackson 2.5 M.Latos 1.5
SP4 A.Cook 2.2 V.Padilla 2.5 B.Zito 2.0 I.Kennedy 2.0 C.Young 1.5
SP5 J.Francis 2.0 E.Stults 1.7 M.Bumgarner 1.8 B.Buckner 1.5 W.LeBlanc 1.5
SP All Others 0.1 All Others 0.7 All Others 0.1 All Others 0.3 All Others 0.7
CL H.Street 1.5 J.Broxton 2.3 B.Wilson 2.0 C.Qualls 1.0 H.Bell 1.8
SU R.Betancourt 0.7 G.Sherrill 1.0 J.Affeldt 1.0 J.Gutierrez 0.5 L.Perdomo 0.2
RP All Others 0.9 All Others 1.5 All Others 1.0 All Others 1.2 All Others 1.1
Misc Sucktitude -0.3   -1.0   -0.8   -1.0   -6.9
 
Hitters   23.4   22.1   15.5   18.8   14.3
Pitchers   18.1   19.1   20.5   18.2   5.7
Replacement   46.5   46.5   46.5   46.5   46.5
Total   88.0   87.7   82.5   83.5   66.5
Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Xizzles


I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)
Name Pos AB Hits 1B 2B 3B HR AVE OBP SLG OPS wOBA BABIP
Matt Kemp CF 600.0 176.6 117.0 27.2 5.7 26.7 0.294 0.348 0.492 0.840 0.363 0.341
Andre Ethier RF 580.0 161.3 87.5 40.9 3.3 29.5 0.278 0.357 0.513 0.870 0.374 0.298
Manny Ramirez LF 510.0 147.8 86.4 32.7 2.4 26.3 0.290 0.404 0.518 0.921 0.401 0.332
Casey Blake 3B 500.0 137.6 89.4 25.4 5.2 17.6 0.275 0.356 0.452 0.808 0.354 0.331
Rafael Furcal SS 600.0 164.2 122.1 27.4 5.3 9.4 0.274 0.341 0.384 0.725 0.325 0.306
Blake DeWitt 3B 400.0 103.3 63.7 25.1 2.5 12.0 0.258 0.321 0.424 0.745 0.326 0.281
Russell Martin C 515.0 131.2 101.3 20.0 0.1 9.7 0.255 0.347 0.351 0.698 0.319 0.284
James Loney 1B 550.0 156.1 114.2 24.8 2.5 14.6 0.284 0.359 0.417 0.776 0.345 0.302
Jamey Carroll 2B 200.0 53.0 44.3 6.4 1.1 1.2 0.265 0.337 0.326 0.662 0.304 0.328
Jason Repko CF 175.0 40.9 24.9 11.5 1.4 3.0 0.234 0.286 0.367 0.653 0.288 0.275
Xavier Paul RF 175.0 46.1 30.3 9.1 0.3 6.4 0.263 0.326 0.429 0.755 0.330 0.297

Sunday, November 22, 2009

NL West 2 Man Simulation Challenge


Champion: D.Fowler/T.Helton
2nd Place: A.Ethier/C.Blake
3rd Place: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Participants: 16 pair of NL West outfielders/infielders from the same team.

What: A 16 team double elimination tournament, where each game is played on my simulator in best four out of seven format.

Rules: Each player bats four times in the lineup, alternating throughout the lineup in the one through eight spots in the lineup. A league average pitcher will bat 9th for all teams. And a four man bench consisting of the two man team will be available for pinch hitting duties. Each team will use the same four man rotation of RHP Dan Haren, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Matt Cain and LHP Clayton Richard. All bullpens will be identical. The higher seeded team will have home field advantage in the 2-3-2 format.

Notes: This tournament is for entertainment purposes only. If all goes well, I will be open to another type of tournament following this one. Current results will be posted on a game by game basis.

Game by Game Updates/Scores

Link to bracket

Monday, November 02, 2009

Game Six In The City


November 4th, World Series Game #6



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte Yankees 64.97% 64.66% 61% NYA 7-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, November 01, 2009

Uno Mas


November 2nd, World Series Game #5



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies A.Burnett vs C.Lee Phillies 57.45% 63.03% 60% PHI 8-6


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Start Spreading The News...


November 1st, World Series Game #4



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton Yankees 62.26% 62.51% 65% NYA 7-4


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Trick Or Treat Baseball


October 31st, World Series Game #3



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels Yankees 52.83% 46.70% 52% NYA 8-5


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Who's Your Daddy


October 29th, World Series Game #2



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees P.Martinez vs A.Burnett Yankees 66.10% 58.48% 58% NYA 3-1


Vegas Odds

Monday, October 26, 2009

World Series, Tale Of The Tape


There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.

Pos Yankees WAR/650PA Phillies WAR/650PA
C J.Posada 5.94 C.Ruiz 3.77
1B M.Teixeira 4.78 R.Howard 4.53
2B R.Cano 4.15 C.Utley 7.29
3B A.Rodriguez 5.59 P.Feliz 1.25
SS D.Jeter 6.72 J.Rollins 2.15
LF J.Damon 2.91 R.Ibanez 4.72
CF M.Cabrera 1.93 S.Victorino 3.18
RF N.Swisher 3.96 J.Werth 4.52
DH H.Matsui 2.95 B.Francisco 2.27
Total (DH)   38.92   33.67
Total (No DH)   35.97   31.41

So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

When Two Tribes Go To War


October 28th, World Series Game #1



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees C.Lee vs C.Sabathia Yankees 60.78% 56.96% 67% PHI 6-1


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 22, 2009

End Of The Line


October 25th, ALCS Game #6



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Angels Yankees J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte Yankees 63.37% 67.25% 57% NYA 5-2


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

El Fin


October 22nd, ALCS Game #5



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Angels A.Burnett vs J.Lackey Angels 53.49% 55.25% 54% LAA 7-6


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Sending Out An S.O.S.


October 21st, NLCS


Click Here, To Help Rescue The Dodgers Season!!!

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies V.Padilla vs C.Hamels Phillies 56.71% 59.88% 55% PHI 10-4


Vegas Odds

Monday, October 19, 2009

Mountain Of Dreams


October 20th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Angels C.Sabathia vs S.Kazmir Yankees 56.14% 56.32% 60% NYA 10-1


Vegas Odds

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Back, Meet Wall.


October 19th, LCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies R.Wolf vs J.Blanton Phillies 55.16% 48.98% 49% PHI 5-4
Yankees Angels A.Pettitte vs J.Weaver Angels 55.95% 50.41% 60% LAA 5-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Phillie Killer


October 18th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies H.Kuroda vs C.Lee Phillies 63.79% 58.94% 57% PHI 11-0


Vegas Odds

Friday, October 16, 2009

Start Spreading The News


October 17th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Angels Yankees J.Saunders vs A.Burnett Yankees 63.77% 64.64% 60% NYA 4-3


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Only A Phillie Walks In LA


October 16th, LCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers P.Martinez vs V.Padilla Dodgers 57.63% 56.70% 51% LAN 2-1
Angels Yankees J.Lackey vs C.Sabathia Yankees 62.12% 66.28% 68% NYA 4-1


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Dodgers Play Their Ace


October 15th, Game #1 NLCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers C.Hamels vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 56.90% 62.55% 51% PHI 8-6


Vegas Odds

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Who Can It Be Now?


October 12th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Rockies C.Lee vs U.Jimenez Rockies 51.69% 48.41% 46% PHI 5-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Redbirds Get The Broom Handle


October 11th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Twins A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano Yankees 62.85% 51.67% 57% NYA 4-1
Angels Red Sox S.Kazmir vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 57.26% 55.29% 51% LAA 7-6
Phillies Rockies J.Happ vs J.Hammel Phillies 51.46% 45.87% 48% TBD


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Happy Hollidays Dodgers Fans


October 9th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Twins Yankees N.Blackburn vs A.Burnett Yankees 74.03% 62.90% TBD TBD
Red Sox Angels J.Beckett vs J.Weaver Red Sox TBD 52.10% TBD TBD


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Where The Deer And The Bison Play


October 8th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw Cardinals 53.70% 43.91% 53% LAN 3-2
Rockies Phillies A.Cook vs C.Hamels Phillies 60.16% 66.04% 64% COL 5-4
Red Sox Angels J.Lester vs J.Lackey Red Sox 51.21% 51.49% 45% LAA 5-0


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Ready To Rumble


October 7th, Playoffs



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Dodgers C.Carpenter vs R.Wolf Cardinals 56.90% 51.99% 53% LAN 5-3
Rockies Phillies U.Jimenez vs C.Lee Phillies 56.14% 62.26% 60% PHI 5-1
Twins Yankees B.Duensing vs C.Sabathia Yankees 74.03% 68.30% 76% NYA 7-2


Vegas Odds

Friday, October 02, 2009

And Then There Were Two Games Left


October 3nd, Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.de la Rosa vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 56.33% 64.71% 60% LAN 5-0
Marlins Phillies A.Sanchez vs C.Hamels Phillies 67.32% 65.13% 69% FLA 4-3
Brewers Cardinals C.Villanueva vs K.Lohse Cardinals 57.81% 56.11% 55% MIL 5-4


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 01, 2009

The Long And Winding Road To Clinching


October 2nd, Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs R.Wolf Dodgers 50.98% 56.46% 71% COL 4-3
Marlins Phillies R.VandenHurk vs J.Blanton Phillies 62.55% 60.95% 58% FLA 7-2
Brewers Cardinals J.Suppan vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 65.46% 71.79% 69% MIL 12-6


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Happy 60th Birthday to the Middle Kingdom


October 1st, All Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Cardinals Reds C.Carpenter vs K.Wells Cardinals TBD 68.41% 68% STL 13-0
Brewers Rockies M.Parra vs A.Cook Rockies TBD 54.64% 65% COL 9-2
Astros Phillies F.Paulino vs C.Lee Phillies TBD 72.10% 67% HOU 5-3
Nationals Braves G.Mock vs T.Hanson Braves TBD 68.00% 78% WAS 2-1
Twins Tigers S.Baker vs N.Robertson Tigers TBD 50.81% 59% MIN 8-3


Vegas Odds

Monday, September 28, 2009

Let's Get It Done


September 29th, All Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates C.Billingsley vs C.Ramos Dodgers 59.68% 60.43% 49% TSD 3-1
Brewers Rockies C.Narveson vs J.Marquis Rockies 62.55% 58.92% 56% COL 7-5
Astros Phillies W.Lopez vs J.Happ Phillies 73.33% 65.20% 71% PHI 7-4
Marlins Braves J.Johnson vs T.Hudson Braves 54.13% 47.13% 45% FLA 5-4
Twins Tigers N.Blackburn vs N.Porcello Tigers 54.75% 56.74% 51% MIN 3-2
Twins Tigers B.Duensing vs J.Verlander Tigers 60.94% 61.86% 61% DET 6-5


Vegas Odds

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Kurunch time


September 28th, All Meaningful Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates H.Kuroda vs Z.Duke Dodgers 61.98% 61.95% 68% PIT 11-1
Astros Phillies Y.Bazardo vs C.Hamels Phillies 72.97% 67.70% 79% HOU 8-2
Marlins Braves A.Sanchez vs J.Jurrjens Braves 63.37% 61.01% 62% ATL 4-0
Twins Tigers N.Blackburn vs R.Porcello Tigers 55.36% 55.13% 51% PPD
Rangers Angels T.Hunter vs E.Santana Angels 60.94% 55.83% 56% TBD


Vegas Odds

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Up Next, NL West Title


September 27th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates C.Kershaw vs D.McCutchen Dodgers 64.97% 70.08% 58% PIT 6-5
Cardinals Rockies K.Lohse vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 64.41% 58.30% 57% COL 4-3
Cubs Giants R.Wells vs M.Cain Giants 55.75% 54.51% 59% SF 5-1


Vegas Odds

Friday, September 25, 2009

Wolf For The Clinch


September 26th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates R.Wolf vs P.Maholm Dodgers 61.98% 58.38% 60% LAN 8-4
Cardinals Rockies A.Wainwright vs U.Jimenez Rockies 55.95% 50.94% 48% STL 6-3
Cubs Giants T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito Giants 55.75% 56.16% 55% CHN 6-2


Vegas Odds

Thursday, September 24, 2009

And A Garland Shall Lead Us


September 25th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Pirates J.Garland vs J.Karstens Dodgers 63.64% 57.53% 66% PIT 3-1
Cardinals Rockies C.Carpenters vs A.Cook Cardinals 58.85% 61.17% 60% COL 2-1
Cubs Giants C.Zambrano vs T.Lincecum Giants 61.39% 61.96% 67% CHN 3-0


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Quit Toying Around


September 24th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Nationals V.Padilla vs J.Martin Dodgers 59.35% 54.71% 60% LAN 7-6
Padres Rockies C.Richard vs J.Hammel Rockies 66.33% 59.91% 68% SD 5-4


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Dodgers Mash In


September 23th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Nationals C.Billingsley vs R.Detwiler Dodgers 64.16% 58.52% 66% WAS 5-4
Padres Rockies T.Stauffer vs J.Marquis Rockies 66.10% 65.83% 64% SD 6-3
Giants DBacks J.Sanchez vs K.Mulvey Giants 56.33% 49.49% 59% SF 5-2


Vegas Odds

Monday, September 21, 2009

Soft Stretch


September 22th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Nationals H.Kuroda vs L.Hernandez Dodgers 64.97% 60.95% 70% LAN 14-2
Padres Rockies E.Mujica vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 69.23% 65.62% 62% COL 11-10
Giants DBacks M.Cain vs D.Davis Giants 52.61% 45.05% 57% TBD


Vegas Odds

Sunday, September 20, 2009

90 Wins


September 21th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Giants DBacks B.Zito vs D.Davis DBacks 53.27% 56.92% TBD SF 5-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Rin Tin Tim Lincecum


September 20th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs R.Wolf Dodgers 50.98% 50.49% 54% LAN 6-2
Rockies DBacks U.Jimenez vs D.Haren DBacks 51.22% 50.47% 57% COL 5-1


Vegas Odds

Friday, September 18, 2009

Dear Jon Garland


September 19th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers B.Penny vs J.Garland Dodgers 56.33% 61.58% 52% LAN 12-1
Rockies DBacks J.Hammel vs M.Scherzer DBacks 51.92% 49.30% 58% COL 10-4


Vegas Odds

Thursday, September 17, 2009

High Five Game Lead


September 18th, NL West Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers J.Sanchez vs V.Padilla Dodgers 58.33% 58.11% 61% SF 8-4
Rockies DBacks J.Marquis vs K.Mulvey Rockies 57.26% 56.32% 55% ARI 7-5


Vegas Odds

Giant Beating Eve


September 17th, Today's Games of Interest



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Nationals Phillies R.Detwiler vs C.Hamels Phillies 74.03% 63.90% 79% PHI 4-2
Mets Braves N.Figueroa vs J.Jurrjens Braves 71.01% 62.28% 68% ATL 7-3
Marlins Reds A.Sanchez vs M.Maloney Marlins 52.61% 58.43% 50% CIN 3-2
Brewers Cubs D.Bush vs R.Wells Cubs 59.02% 61.79% 55% MIL 7-4
Angels Red Sox E.Santana vs J.Beckett Red Sox 60.94% 59.56% 61% LAA 4-3


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Mr. Miracle


September 16th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Pirates Dodgers K.Hart vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 72.22% 8.8 72.60% 9.17 LAN 3-1
Rockies Giants J.de la Rosa vs M.Cain Giants 55.75% 7.3 46.20% 8.58 COL 4-3


Vegas Odds

Monday, September 14, 2009

Yo Ho, Pirates Lose Again


September 15th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Pirates Dodgers Z.Duke vs R.Wolf Dodgers 69.79% 8.0 67.92% 8.77 LAN 5-4
Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs B.Zito Rockies 57.26% 7.1 55.51% 7.86 SF 10-2


Vegas Odds

Sunday, September 13, 2009

The Dodgers, The Pirates, And The Ugly


September 14th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Pirates Dodgers D.McCutchen vs J.Garland Dodgers 70.59% 8.4 66.56% 9.88 LAN 6-2
Rockies Giants J.Hammel vs T.Lincecum Giants 63.90% 6.6 56.47% 7.01 SF 9-1


Vegas Odds

Saturday, September 12, 2009

No Me Gusta, Brad Penny


September 13th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs B.Penny Dodgers 53.70% 8.0 59.45% 8.43 SF 7-2
Rockies Padres J.Marquis vs C.Richard Rockies 55.35% 8.0 48.87% 7.38 SD 7-3


Vegas Odds

Friday, September 11, 2009

No Mercy!


September 12th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants V.Padilla vs J.Sanchez Giants 51.69% 8.2 50.07% 8.61 LAN 9-1
Rockies Padres E.Rogers vs T.Stauffer Padres 51.69% 8.4 51.14% 8.14 SD 3-2


Vegas Odds

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Giants Killers


September 11th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants H.Kuroda vs M.Cain Giants 56.33% 7.3 44.74% 8.21 LAN 10-3
Rockies Padres J.de la Rosa vs E.Mujica Rockies 58.16% 7.8 53.50% 7.21 COL 4-1


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Reds Bending Over


September 10th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Reds Rockies K.Wells vs J.Contreras Rockies 67.53% 10.3 68.81% 9.18 COL 5-1


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Garland For The Sweep


September 9th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers DBacks J.Garland vs D.Haren DBacks 55.56% 8.4 59.32% 9.53 ARI 4-3
Reds Rockies B.Arroyo vs J.Hammel Rockies 62.12% 9.4 70.94% 9.24 COL 4-3
Padres Giants W.LeBlanc vs B.Zito Giants 63.37% 8.2 61.43% 8.67 SD 4-2


Vegas Odds

Monday, September 07, 2009

I Could Go For A Winning Streak


September 8th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Billingsley vs B.Buckner Dodgers 64.91% 9.7 57.67% 10.47 LAN 5-4
Reds Rockies M.Maloney vs J.Marquis Rockies 70.59% 9.8 72.29% 9.62 COL 3-1
Padres Giants K.Correia vs T.Lincecum Giants 72.22% 6.8 64.35% 6.99 SD 4-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Buh Buh Buh Buh-Bad


September 7th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers DBacks V.Padilla vs M.Scherzer Dodgers 51.46% 9.2 39.84% 9.60 LAN 7-2
Padres Giants C.Richard vs B.Penny Giants 62.69% 8.3 55.05% 8.54 SF 9-4


Vegas Odds

Kuroda Returns


September 6th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Padres Dodgers T.Stauffer vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 66.78% 8.5 69.09% 8.33 SD 4-3
DBacks Rockies Y.Petit vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 68.25% 10.0 65.37% 10.19 COL 13-5
Giants Brewers J.Sanchez vs B.Looper Brewers 52.15% 8.7 50.59% 9.85 MIL 2-1


Vegas Odds

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Borderline Pathetic


September 5th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Padres Dodgers M.Latos vs R.Wolf Dodgers 70.59% 7.9 68.92% 8.53 LAN 7-4
DBacks Rockies D.Davis vs J.Contreras Rockies 56.52% 9.7 63.01% 9.92 COL 4-1
Giants Brewers B.Zito vs J.Suppan Brewers 53.92% 7.6 62.70% 8.57 SF 3-2


Vegas Odds

Thursday, September 03, 2009

I-Padres


September 4th, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Padres Dodgers W.LeBlanc vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 72.22% 8.1 73.81% 8.59 SD 2-0
DBacks Rockies D.Haren vs J.Hammel Rockies 51.92% 8.8 56.44% 8.92 COL 5-4
Giants Brewers B.Zito vs J.Suppan Brewers 50.00% 8.8 53.53% 9.83 SF 3-2


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Mad Max, Beyond Impressive


September 3rd, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
DBacks Dodgers B.Buckner vs J.Garland Dodgers 66.78% 9.2 62.25% 9.05 LAN 4-2
Giants Phillies T.Lincecum vs P.Martinez Giants 55.36% 8.1 55.24% 8.13 PHI 2-1
Mets Rockies P.Misch vs J.Marquis Rockies 69.97% 10.0 70.03% 9.83 NYM 8-3


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Walk This Way


September 2nd, Meaningful NL West Games



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
DBacks Dodgers M.Scherzer vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 62.69 8.1 61.16% 7.54 ARI 4-1
Giants Phillies B.Penny vs J.A. Happ Phillies 66.78% 8.7 67.16% 9.60 SF 4-0
Mets Rockies T.Redding vs U.Jimenez Rockies 72.60% 9.3 74.01% 9.27 COL 5-2


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 31, 2009

Trader Ned's


September 1st, Meaningful NL West Games


Dodgers acquire Jim Thome and Jon Garland.

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
DBacks Dodgers Y.Petit vs V.Padilla Dodgers 65.64% 9.0 61.61% 9.17 LAN 4-3
Giants Phillies J.Sanchez vs C.Hamels Phillies 64.41% 8.3 60.59% 9.03 PHI 1-0
Mets Rockies M.Pelfrey vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 66.78% 9.5 65.41% 8.66 COL 8-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Baby Got Diamond Back


August 31st, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
DBacks Dodgers D.Davis vs R.Wolf Dodgers 63.24% 7.9 63.93% 8.48 ARI 5-3


Vegas Odds

Living On The Air In Cincinnati


August 30th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Kershaw vs B.Arroyo Dodgers 62.12% 8.1 62.28% 9.05 LAN 3-2
Rockies Giants J.Hammel vs M.Cain Giants 55.56% 7.6 48.26% 8.27 SF 9-5


Vegas Odds

Friday, August 28, 2009

Knuckle Sandwich


August 29th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Haeger vs M.Maloney Dodgers 59.68% 9.0 55.83% 9.90 11-4
Rockies Giants J.Marquis vs B.Zito Rockies 53.92% 7.7 48.99% 8.53 5-3


Vegas Odds

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Big Favorites In Cincy


August 28th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Reds C.Billingsley vs H.Bailey Dodgers 65.64% 8.8 65.52% 9.15 CIN 4-2
Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum Giants 56.52% 6.5 55.28% 6.86 SF 2-0


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Back In The Saddle Again


August 27th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Rockies V.Padilla vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 57.98% 10.1 57.70% 10.00 LAN 3-2
DBacks Giants Y.Petit vs J.Martinez Giants 56.33% 8.5 57.27% 9.01 ARI 11-0


Vegas Odds

It's Not The End of the World As We Know It


and I feel fine! Yes, the Dodgers lost a tough extra inning game last night in the opening salvo vs the Roxies. The Roxies have cut the Dodgers lead in the NL West, which happens to be the smallest lead of any in the 6 MLB divisions, to just two games. All is not lost though, because there exists this mulligan on a season called the wild-card.

Yes, the Dodgers lead is down to two games, but their lead in the wild-card is six games, and it's over the Giants, not a team like the "red hot" Roxies. As I pointed out on a post over at Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers still have a great chance of making the playoffs. For the most part the playoffs are a crapshoot. All four teams should be pretty even for the most part, with home field advantage being the biggest seperator between the teams.

According to the site Sports Club Stats which is on the side-bar. The Dodgers break even point (50% chance of making the playoffs) is somewhere between 89 and 90 wins. A 16-20 record the rest of the way out would give the Dodgers a 90 win season.

Here are the breakdowns. Total wins, probability of making the playoffs.

< 85 ... 0%
85 ... 1%
86 ... 3%
87 ... 11%
88 ... 24%
89 ... 45%
90 ... 66%
91 ... 83%
92 ... 94% (.500 ball the rest of the season)
93 ... 98%
>93 ... 100%

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Regressing To The Mean


August 26th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Rockies R.Wolf vs J.Fogg Dodgers 56.52% 10.5 51.10% 10.25 LAN 6-1
DBacks Giants D.Davis vs J.Sanchez Giants 57.98% 7.5 60.60% 7.85 TBD


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 24, 2009

Tuesday is Toss-up Day


August 25th, Meaningful NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Rockies C.Kershaw vs J.Hammel Dodgers 51.69% 9.4 50.04% 9.19 COL 5-4
DBacks Giants D.Haren vs M.Cain Giants 57.98% 6.6 51.01% 7.32 SF 5-4


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Denver Bound


August 24th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Rockies B.Zito vs J.Marquis Rockies 62.12% 9.4 59.83% 9.98 COL 6-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Breathing Room


August 23rd, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers R.Dempster vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 62.26% 7.52 61.60% 8.13 CHN 3-1
Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs U.Jimenez Giants 51.22% 8.0 43.70% 7.52 COL 4-2


Vegas Odds

Friday, August 21, 2009

Hey! Grrrr


August 22st, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers T.Lilly vs C.Haeger Cubs 50.98% 8.7 52.50% 8.59 LAN 2-0
Giants Rockies J.Martinez vs J.De la Rosa Rockies 63.10% 9.4 67.74% 9.99 COL 14-11


Vegas Odds

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Randy^2


August 21st, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers R.Wells vs R.Wolf Dodgers 59.02% 8.0 56.26% 8.43 LAN 2-1
Giants Rockies J.Sanchez vs A.Cook Rockies 61.54% 9.2 56.41% 9.43 SF 6-3


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Under Pressure


August 20th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cubs Dodgers T.Gorzelanny vs J.Weaver Dodgers 55.75% 8.7 57.22% 9.15 LAN 7-2
Rockies Nationals J.Hammel vs G.Mock Rockies 56.71% 9.7 55.66% 9.22 COL 4-1
Giants Reds M.Cain vs A.Harang Giants 55.36% 7.4 50.70% 8.24 CIN 2-1


Vegas Odds

Pitchers Duel Azul


August 19th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cardinals Dodgers A.Wainwright vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 55.16% 7.3 59.17% 7.63 STL 3-2
Giants Reds B.Zito vs B.Arroyo Reds 51.46% 8.5 47.11% 9.04 SF 1-0
Rockies Nationals J.Marquis vs J.Balester Rockies 60.00% 9.2 53.64% 9.49 COL 5-4


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 17, 2009

Ham Strung


August 18th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cardinals Dodgers M.Boggs vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 62.41% 8.2 64.86% 8.81 LAN 7-3
Giants Reds T.Lincecum vs H.Bailey Giants 68.35% 7.6 62.34% 8.14 SF 8-5
Rockies Nationals U.Jimenez vs C.Statten Rockies 60.94% 8.7 52.68% 9.2 COL 4-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Blue Knuckle Time


August 17th, NL West Games


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Cardinals Dodgers C.Carpenter vs C.Haeger Cardinals 60.32% 7.7 58.20% 8.43 STL 3-2
Giants Mets J.Martinez vs L.Hernandez Giants 51.22% 9.1 54.30% 9.22 SF 10-1


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Hungry Like The Randy Wolf


Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, August 14-16


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs D.Haren DBacks 50.25% 7.6 51.16% 9.15 ARI 4-1
Dodgers DBacks H.Kuroda vs D.Davis Dodgers 52.83% 9.2 54.00% 9.77 ARI 4-3
Dodgers DBacks R.Wolf vs Y.Petit Dodgers 58.51% 9.1 56.07% 10.47 LAN 9-3


Other Games of Interest


NL West, August 16th Games

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Mets J.Sanchez vs M.Pelfrey Giants 50.25% 8.4 45.13% 8.17 NYM 3-2
Rockies Marlins A.Cook vs C.Volstad Marlins 50.00% 8.7 54.23% 10.52 FLA 10-3
Rockies Marlins J.de la Rosa vs R.Vandenhurk Marlins 51.00% 9.3 53.71% 10.02 COL 7-3

NL West, August 15th Games

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Mets M.Cain vs J.Santana Mets 54.75% 7.1 55.50% 8.07 SF 5-4

NL West, August 14th Games

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Giants Mets B.Zito vs B.Parnell Giants 50.98% 8.6 57.08% 9.17 NYN 3-0
Rockies Marlins J.Hammel vs J.Johnson Marlins 61.24% 8.3 53.31% 9.05 FLA 6-5

Pirates vs Rockies, August 13th
Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Pirates Rockies P.Maholm vs J.Marquis Rockies 70.59% 9.7 63.51% 9.80 COL 10-1


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Weaver For The Sweep?


Dodgers vs Giants, August 12th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants J.Weaver vs T.Lincecum Giants 64.54% 7.1 72.67% 7.47 SF 3-2


Vegas Odds

Beat The Giants, Part II


Dodgers vs Giants, August 11th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants R.Wolf vs J.Martinez Dodgers 56.33% 8.5 47.14% 9.65 LAN 9-1


Vegas Odds

Monday, August 10, 2009

Stamp Out The Giants


Dodgers vs Giants, August 10th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Dodgers Giants H.Kuroda vs J.Sanchez Dodgers 52.83% 8.4 54.89% 8.39 LAN 4-2


Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 09, 2009

Slip Sliding Away


The Dodgers lead in the NL West is "Slip Sliding Away!".



NL West Standings
Team W L GB Pecota NL West Champ Chances
Dodgers 67 45 0 78.13%
Rockies 61 50 5.5 16.60%
Giants 61 50 5.5 5.25%
Diamondbacks 50 62 17 0.01%
Padres 47 66 20.5 0.00%


Wednesday, August 05, 2009

A Brave New Series


Braves vs Dodgers, August 6th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U Actual
Braves Dodgers D.Lowe vs R.Wolf Dodgers 56.33% 8.3 54.92% 8.95 LAN 5-4
Braves Dodgers J.Jurrjens vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 55.36% 7.5 56.98% 8.63 ATL 9-5
Braves Dodgers K.Kawakami vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 62.26% 8.2 61.53% 9.08 ATL 2-1
Braves Dodgers J.Vazquez vs E.Stults Braves 55.36% 8.2 53.90% 8.06 ATL 8-2


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Tuesday... Bloody Tuesday


Brewers vs Dodgers, August 5th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U
Brewers Dodgers B.Looper vs J.Schmidt Dodgers 56.33% 9.5 55.34% 9.44

Actual Score: Brewers 4-1

Vegas Odds

Monday, August 03, 2009

Geared Up To Begin New Winning Streak


Brewers vs Dodgers, August 4th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Xeifrank Win Prob Xeifrank O/U
Brewers Dodgers H.Kuroda vs Y.Gallardo Dodgers 54.34% 7.9 52.82% 7.11

Actual Score: Dodgers 17-4

Vegas Odds

Sunday, August 02, 2009

In Kemp We Trust!


Brewers vs Dodgers, August 3rd


Source Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Win Expectancy Over/Under
Vegas Brewers Dodgers M.Parra vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 64.97% 8.4
Xeifrank System Brewers Dodgers M.Parra vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 66.59% 8.16

Actual Score: Brewers 6-5

Saturday, August 01, 2009

Some Like It Hot


Dodgers vs Braves, August 2nd


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Braves C.Billingsley vs J.Jurrjens Braves 57.08% 7.7


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

How Lowe Can You Go


Dodgers vs Braves, August 1st


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Braves R.Wolf vs D.Lowe Braves 55.95 8.5


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Thursday, July 30, 2009

MMMBop


Dodgers vs Braves, July 31st


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Braves J.Schmidt vs T.Hanson Braves 61.54% 9.0


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Dodgers Ready Themselves For A Little Hanson

Get Out Of St. Louis Game


Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 30th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Cardinals H.Kuroda vs K.Lohse Dodgers 50.00% 8.9


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Dodgers Looking For Dead Cat Bounce


Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 29th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Cardinals C.Kershaw vs J.Pineiro Cardinals 52.15% 7.6


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Monday, July 27, 2009

Dodger Stopper Heads To The Mound City


Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 28th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Cardinals C.Billingsley vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 54.75% 7.7


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Is St. Louis and Chris Carpenter Really That Good!?



Dodgers vs Cardinals, July 27th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Dodgers Cardinals R.Wolf vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 61.83% 7.5


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Schmidt's Happening


Marlins vs Dodgers, July 26th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Marlins Dodgers C.Volstad vs J.Schmidt Dodgers 55.16% 8.6


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Friday, July 24, 2009

Gone Fishin'


Marlins vs Dodgers, July 25th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Marlins Dodgers R.VandenHurk vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 61.83% 9.0


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Going For 6


Marlins vs Dodgers, July 24th


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Marlins Dodgers J.Johnson vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 59.35% 7.1


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Sweepingsley


Reds vs Dodgers, July 22nd


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Reds Dodgers B.Arroyo vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 65.87% 8.2


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

Monday, July 20, 2009

Reds vs Dodgers, July 21st

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Expectancy Over/Under
Reds Dodgers H.Bailey vs R.Wolf Dodgers 64.03% 7.2


Note: All win expectancies are no longer from my Simulator, and are now from Vegas Odds

The Case of the Needy Bullpen


Ken Gurnick of MLB.Com is speculating that a possible Dodger trade partner, the Cincinnati Reds are coming to town. Gurnick speculates that the Dodgers have a possible interest in a few of the Reds bullpen arms.

It also has the Dodgers in search mode for bullpen help with the July 31 Trade Deadline approaching. In a stroke of timing, one club they've targeted is coming to town. The Cincinnati Reds, who arrive Monday night, have a bullpen of veterans that appeal to the Dodgers.

Primarily, that means closer Francisco Cordero, right-handed workhorse David Weathers and lefty specialist Arthur Rhodes. The Orioles also have some relievers that fit the Dodgers profile, most notably George Sherrill. - Ken Gurnick


Need:
First off, do the Dodgers need another arm in the bullpen? Well, that question can be best answered by meeting the following criteria.

1. Would any of the options available improve upon what you already have?
2. Are there any injury concerns with any of the top three or four members of the bullpen depth wise?


If both of these criteria are met, then it boils down to what players you would have to give up and what contract would you be taking over. Undoubtedly, the Dodgers could find a bullpen arm or two that would be an improvement over what they already have, but at what cost!?

Here is the current Dodger bullpen depth.

Name Skinny
J.Broxton Top closer. Lingering toe injury a concern.
R.Troncoso Solid but not spectacular, probably not a worthy setup man at this point.
G.Mota Has been lights out after a very rocky start.
J.McDonald Best fit is in long relief.
S.Elbert Will contribute more next year.
B.Leach Left handed
J.Weaver Spot starter and long relief specialist.
C.Vargas Long relief guy, could be headed to minors.
R.Belisario 15 Day DL, with sprained elbow. Effective setup man first half of season.
H.Guo Expected back any time, not sure what to expect. 2008 Setup Man of the Year!
C.Wade 15 Day DL, with shoulder sprain.
W.Ohman DL, sore left shoulder.


Let's take a look at these names that Gurnick mentions to see which if any are options the Dodgers should be considering. With one added caveat though, I won't match the names with the stats until later as not to bias ourselves. Please don't cheat and look up the names that match these numbers! :)

Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP FIP Contract
Player A 25.0 8.57 3.72 0.37 .279 3.23 09:$0.4M, FA
Player B 31.1 6.03 4.02 1.15 .220 4.70 09:$3.5M, 10:$3.7M club option ($0.4M buyout)
Player C 38.1 8.22 2.82 0.70 .270 3.33 09:$2.75M, Arb elig.
Player D 38.0 7.58 3.79 0.24 .250 2.96 08:$8.5M, 09:$12M, 10:$12M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
Player E 48.1 8.57 3.72 0.37 .279 3.23 09:$0.5M, FA
Player F 31.1 7.76 4.02 0.57 .207 3.49 09:$2M, 10:$2M


Let's first take the time to weed out this list based on talent or lack there of. I am going to nominate Player B as the first pitcher kicked off of the island. Please say good-bye to David Weathers. That leaves us with five pitchers left.

Next, let's look at some of the contracts these guys have. You certainly don't want to saddle yourself with a terrible contract, especially from a bullpen pitcher. Remember, we already have the best closer in the game, so no need to overpay at this position. Player D quickly raises a red flag, with around $28M still gauranteed over the next two plus years. Let's eliminate this player from our list. Please say good-bye to Reds closer Francisco Cordero.

This leaves us with Players A,C,E,F. Things get a little harder as there is less and less difference between value and contracts here. I have to admit that I've placed two placebo pitchers among the list. Two of the remaining four pitchers in the list, are already members of the Dodgers bullpen. Player A is Jeff Weaver, and Player E is Ronald Belisario (currently on the DL). That narrows the field down to Player C and Player F.

A little more info on these two players is needed. Player C is right handed and 32 years old and under team control (arbitration) for one more year. Player F is left handed and is 39 years old and signed through the 2010 season. The Dodgers current left handed options are Brent Leach, Scott Elbert and HongZhi Guo. None of the three offer too much excitement for pitching high leverage innings, though Guo if healthy could be that pitcher, but I think by the time the trade deadline rolls around his health concerns will still be lingering.

I am going to call this one a draw, it's just too close to call. If I had to choose, I would give a slight edge to Player C over Player F, mostly due to the very low BABIP from Player F. Let's reveal who these last two players are. Player F is the 39 year old left handed setup man for the Reds, Arthur Rhodes. Player C is the 32 year old right handed reliever for the Orioles, George Sherril. Of the names thrown out in the Gurnick article, I'd only have interest in trading for Sherril and Rhodes. Of course, if the Orioles and Reds want too much for either of these two pitchers, then I wouldn't make the deal.

While the Dodgers do have injury issues in the bullpen, they are more of the nagging type. Still, the Dodgers have a lot at risk this year, as it's not every year you get to the end of July with the best record in all of baseball. It's not a bad idea to hedge against these nagging injury questions. The Dodgers still have a lot of above replacement level bullpen depth, nonetheless Arthur Rhodes (not just a lefty specialist) and George Sherril would both fit in to the 7th/8th inning high leverage role. Dangle some carrots Colleti, and see what it would take to get Sherril or Rhodes.