Friday, August 31, 2007

Simulations for Saturday, September 1st

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Padres D.Lowe vs J.Peavy Padres 60.00 60.00 Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 60.00 5244.01
LV Hilton Odds 60.00 5336.78

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Simulations for Friday, August 31st

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Rockies vs DBacks U.Jimenez vs L.Hernandez Rockies 51.50 47.62 Rockies
Giants vs Nationals K.Correia vs T.Redding Nationals 56.80 52.38 Giants
The Dodgers vs Padres game is off the books due to the lack of projection information on Padres starting pitcher Jack Cassel.
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 94.70 5338.71
LV Hilton Odds 95.24 5432.02

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, August 30th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
DBacks vs Padres D.Davis vs C.Young Padres 67.60 63.64 DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 32.40 5211.61
LV Hilton Odds 36.36 5300.42

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Simulations for Wednesday, August 29th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Nationals vs Dodgers S.Hill vs B.Penny Dodgers 57.05 63.64 Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres M.Owings vs G.Maddux Padres 59.30 57.45 Padres
Rockies vs Giants J.Francis vs N.Lowry Rockies 50.02 50.00 Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 166.37 5045.24
LV Hilton Odds 171.09 5129.33

Monday, August 27, 2007

Simulations for Tuesday, August 28th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Nationals vs Dodgers J.Bergman vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 58.70 62.26 Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres B.Webb vs J.Germano DBacks 51.70 60.00 Padres
Rockies vs Giants F.Morales vs M.Cain Giants 54.65 58.85 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 161.65 4883.59
LV Hilton Odds 161.11 4968.22

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Simulations for Monday, August 27th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Nationals vs Dodgers M.Bacsik vs D.Lowe Dodgers 64.80 68.25 Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres L.Hernandez vs J.Peavy Padres 66.70 69.23 Padres
Rockies vs Giants J.Fogg vs B.Zito Giants 51.85 58.85 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 183.35 4700.24
LV Hilton Odds 196.33 4771.89

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Simulations for Sunday, August 26th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Mets D.Wells vs J.Maine Mets 63.30 62.96 Dodgers
Padres vs Phillies T.Stauffer vs K.Kendrick Phillies 56.45 58.33 Phillies
Nationals vs Rockies J.Hanrahan vs E.Dessens Rockies 60.75 56.52 Rockies
Cubs vs DBacks J.Marquis vs Y.Petit DBacks 50.95 47.62 DBacks
Brewers vs Giants D.Bush vs T.Lincecum Brewers 51.20 41.67 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 253.65 4446.59
LV Hilton Odds 257.84 4514.05

Friday, August 24, 2007

Simulations for Saturday, August 25th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Mets E.Stults vs O.Hernandez Mets 62.70 60.00 Mets
Padres vs Phillies C.Hensley vs K.Lohse Phillies 61.40 55.56 Padres
Nationals vs Rockies T.Redding vs U.Jimenez Rockies 54.05 57.45 Rockies
Brewers vs Giants Y.Gallardo vs K.Correia Brewers 55.25 55.56 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 201.10 4245.49
LV Hilton Odds 206.33 4307.72

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Simulations for Friday, August 24th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Mets B.Penny vs O.Perez Mets 53.10 51.22 Mets
Padres vs Phillies G.Maddux vs J.Moyer Phillies 55.10 51.22 Padres
Nationals vs Rockies S.Hill vs J.Francis Rockies 50.30 59.18 Rockies
Cubs vs DBacks S.Marshall vs M.Owings DBacks 54.85 51.22 Cubs
Brewers vs Giants C.Vargas vs N.Lowry Giants 53.25 52.38 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 246.70 3998.79
LV Hilton Odds 260.34 4047.38

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, August 23rd

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Phillies C.Billingsley vs F.Castro Phillies 50.70 47.62 Dodgers
Padres vs Mets J.Germano T.Glavine Mets 60.55 60.78 Padres
Pirates vs Rockies P.Maholm vs F.Morales Rockies 54.15 57.45 Pirates
Cubs vs Giants C.Zambrano vs M.Cain Giants 51.75 46.51 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 186.35 3812.44
LV Hilton Odds 180.66 3866.72

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Simulations for Wednesday, August 22nd

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Phillies D.Lowe vs J.Durbin Dodgers 53.70 48.78 Dodgers
Padres vs Mets J.Peavy vs B.Lawrence Padres 50.85 58.33 Padres
Pirates vs Rockies T.Gorzelanny vs J.Fogg Rockies 54.95 51.69 Pirates
Brewers vs DBacks J.Suppan vs B.Webb DBacks 52.85 66.10 DBacks
Cubs vs Giants R.Hill vs B.Zito Cubs 51.35 49.02 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 253.80 3558.64
LV Hilton Odds 270.54 3596.18

Monday, August 20, 2007

Simulations for Tuesday, August 21st

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Phillies B.Tomko vs K.Kendrick Phillies 56.70 58.33 Phillies
Padres vs Mets C.Young vs J.Maine Mets 54.20 51.22 Mets
Pirates vs Rockies T.Armas vs E.Dessens Rockies 64.50 56.14 Rockies
Brewers vs DBacks D.Bush vs L.Hernandez Brewers 56.00 46.51 Brewers
Cubs vs Giants J.Marquis vs T.Lincecum Giants 54.40 56.14 Cubs
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 277.00 3281.64
LV Hilton Odds 256.06 3340.12

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Simulations for Monday, August 20th

Simulations for Monday, August 20th. Current prediction record is 218-176.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Pirates vs Rockies M.Morris vs U.Jimenez Rockies 60.10 59.68 Pirates
Brewers vs DBacks Y.Gallardo vs D.Davis Brewers 52.85 46.08 Brewers
Giants vs Marlins R.Ortiz vs S.Mitre Marlins 62.65 60.00 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 130.10 3151.54
LV Hilton Odds 126.40 3213.72

Simulations for Sunday, August 19th

Simulations for Sunday, August 19th. Current prediction record is 216-176.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers J.Francis vs B.Penny Dodgers 58.40 55.56 Dodgers
Astros vs Padres M.Albers vs G.Maddux Padres 62.70 60.78 Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 121.10 3030.44
LV Hilton Odds 116.34 3097.38

Saturday, August 18, 2007

Simulations for Saturday, August 18th

Simulations for Saturday, August 18th. Current prediction record is 216-172.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers F.Morales vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 57.45 60.78 Rockies
Astros vs Padres R.Oswalt vs J.Germano Padres 53.90 45.05 Astros
DBacks vs Braves M.Owings vs B.Carlyle Braves 59.75 57.08 DBacks
Giants vs Marlins M.Cain vs R.VanderHulk Marlins 52.15 46.51 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 176.75 2853.69
LV Hilton Odds 190.58 2906.80

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Simulations for Friday, August 17th

Simulations for Friday, August 17th. Current prediction record is 215-169.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers J.Fogg vs E.Stults Dodgers 51.35 52.38 Dodgers
Astros vs Padres W.Williams vs J.Peavy Padres 63.50 68.25 Astros
DBacks vs Braves B.Webb vs L.Cormier Braves 52.75 40.82 DBacks
Giants vs Marlins B.Zito vs S.Olsen Marlins 58.05 55.56 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 177.05 2676.64
LV Hilton Odds 187.75 2719.05

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, August 16th

Simulations for Thursday, August 16th. Current prediction record is 214-167.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Astros vs Dodgers W.Rodriguez vs D.Lowe Dodgers 59.65 60.78 Dodgers
Rockies vs Padres E.Dessens vs C.Hensley Rockies 53.70 42.74 Padres
Giants vs Braves T.Lincecum vs C.James Braves 57.65 58.68 Giants
Note: The Arizona/Marlins game is not being simulated due to the lack of projection data available on Marlins pitcher Daniel Barone.
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 148.30 2528.34
LV Hilton Odds 159.36 2559.69

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Simulations for Wednesday, August 15th

Simulations for Wednesday, August 15th. Current prediction record is 212-165.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Astros vs Dodgers J.Jennings vs B.Penny Dodgers 66.20 63.64 Dodgers
Rockies vs Padres U.Jimenez vs C.Young Padres 59.00 65.40 Rockies
Giants vs Braves R.Ortiz vs T.Hudson Braves 68.80 70.15 Braves
DBacks vs Marlins D.Davis vs S.Mitre Marlins 58.40 54.55 DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 217.16 2311.18
LV Hilton Odds 213.84 2345.85

Monday, August 13, 2007

Simulations for Tuesday, August 14th

Simulations for Tuesday, August 14th. Current prediction record is 210-163.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Astros vs Dodgers M.Albers vs B.Tomko Dodgers 59.60 57.45 Astros
Rockies vs Padres J.Francis vs G.Maddux Rockies 52.55 50.00 Padres
Giants vs Braves S.Atchison vs J.Smoltz Braves 65.25 70.15 Braves
DBacks vs Marlins B.Kim vs D.Willis Marlins 51.00 55.16 Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 204.10 2107.08
LV Hilton Odds 217.86 2127.99

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Simulations for Monday, August 13th

Simulations for Monday, August 13th. Current prediction record is 209-161.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Astros vs Dodgers R.Oswalt vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 60.40 52.38 Astros
Giants vs Pirates, G1 M.Cain vs P.Maholm Pirates 52.50 48.31 Pirates
Giants vs Pirates, G2 N.Lowry vs S.Youman Pirates 50.60 49.26 Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 141.50 1965.58
LV Hilton Odds 146.67 1981.32

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Simulations for Sunday, August 12th

Simulations for Sunday, August 12th. Current prediction record is 207-159.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals M.Hendrickson vs A.Reyes Cardinals 58.70 54.55 Cardinals
Padres vs Reds J.Peavy vs B.Arroyo Reds 50.02 41.49 Padres
Nationals vs DBacks M.Bacsik vs M.Owings DBacks 55.10 59.51 Nationals
Pirates vs Giants T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito Pirates 54.00 47.23 Pirates
Notes: Cubs/Rockies game is not being simulated due to the lack of information about Rockies pitcher Tim Harikkala.
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 207.58 1758.00
LV Hilton Odds 200.78 1780.54

Friday, August 10, 2007

Simulations for Saturday, August 11th

Simulations for Saturday, August 11th. Current prediction record is 204-157.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals D.Lowe vs B.Looper Cardinals 51.25 48.78 Cardinals
Padres vs Reds J.Germano vs B.Livingston Padres 50.05 50.50 Reds
Nationals vs DBacks J.Lannan vs B.Webb DBacks 60.35 69.23 DBacks
Cubs vs Rockies R.Hill vs J.Fogg Rockies 56.25 49.02 Rockies
Pirates vs Giants T.Armas vs T.Lincecum Giants 60.70 66.10 Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 257.10 1500.90
LV Hilton Odds 250.43 1530.11

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Simulations for Friday, August 10th

Simulations for Friday, August 10th. Current prediction record is 201-155.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals B.Penny vs A.Wainright Dodgers 52.10 53.49 Dodgers
Padres vs Reds W.Ledezma vs M.Belisle Reds 48.45 51.46 Padres
Nationals vs DBacks M.Chico vs L.Hernandez DBacks 57.20 59.51 DBacks
Cubs vs Rockies J.Marquis vs A.Cook Rockies 62.60 57.45 Cubs
Pirates vs Giants M.Morris vs R.Ortiz Giants 51.90 51.69 Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 236.35 1264.55
LV Hilton Odds 252.40 1277.71

Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, August 9th

Simulations for Thursday, August 9th. Current prediction record is 200-152.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Reds B.Tomko vs P.Dumatrait Reds 51.70 47.62 Dodgers
Padres vs Cardinals C.Young vs J.Pineiro Padres 59.25 58.68 Cardinals
Pirates vs DBacks I.Snell vs D.Davis DBacks 51.85 57.08 DBacks
Cubs vs Rockies T.Lilly vs U.Jimenez Rockies 57.95 48.78 Cubs
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 182.95 1081.60
LV Hilton Odds 202.00 1075.71

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Simulations for Wednesday, August 8th

Simulations for Wednesday, August 8th. Current prediction record is 197-150.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Reds C.Billingsley vs A.Harang Reds 55.45 53.05 Reds
Padres vs Cardinals G.Maddux vs K.Wells Padres 51.20 51.22 Cardinals
Nationals vs Giants T.Redding vs M.Cain Giants 52.50 60.00 Giants
Pirates vs DBacks P.Maholm vs B.Kim DBacks 54.90 57.45 DBacks
Brewers vs Rockies Y.Gallardo vs J.Francis Brewers 53.45 46.95 Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 258.20 823.40
LV Hilton Odds 272.33 803.38

Monday, August 06, 2007

Simulations for Tuesday, August 7th

Simulations for Tuesday, August 7th. Current prediction record is 194-148.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Dodgers vs Reds M.Hendrickson vs A.Harang Reds 51.35 50.74 Reds
Padres vs Cardinals J.Peavy vs A.Reyes Padres 55.30 60.00 Padres
Nationals vs Giants M.Bacsik vs B.Zito Giants 51.60 58.33 Nationals
Pirates vs DBacks P.Maholm vs M.Owings DBacks 53.75 56.90 Pirates
Brewers vs Rockies C.Capuano vs J.Hirsh Rockies 52.45 52.38 Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 253.75 569.65
LV Hilton Odds 247.89 555.49

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Simulations for Monday, August 6th

Simulations for Monday, August 6th. Current prediction record is 192-148.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
Padres vs Cardinals D.Wells vs B.Looper Cardinals 55.70 54.55 Cardinals
Brewers vs Rockies C.Vargas vs J.Fogg Rockies 53.00 52.38 Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 108.70 460.95
LV Hilton Odds 106.93 448.56

Saturday, August 04, 2007

Simulations for Sunday, August 5th

Simulations for Sunday, August 5th. Current prediction record is 190-147.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers B.Webb vs B.Penny Dodgers 57.95 53.5 DBacks
Giants vs Padres N.Lowry vs J.Germano Padres 62.65 51.20 Padres
Rockies vs Braves A.Cook vs C.James Braves 51.40 55.56 Braves
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 156.10 304.85
LV Hilton Odds 153.26 295.30

Simulations for Saturday, August 4th

Simulations for Saturday, August 4th. Current prediction record is 189-145.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers L.Hernandez vs D.Lowe Dodgers 62.4 60.8 DBacks
Giants vs Padres P.Misch vs C.Hensley Padres 56.50 57.10 Padres
Rockies vs Braves U.Jimenez vs T.Hudson Braves 62.90 64.30 Braves
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 157.00 147.85
LV Hilton Odds 160.60 134.70

Friday, August 03, 2007

Converting Vegas Odds to an Expected Win Percentage

Now that I am comparing my simulation results to the Las Vegas-Hilton oddsmakers. I need to post the conversion algorithm to go from Vegas odds to an expected win percentage. You will often see a Vegas baseball favorite listed as -155. Well does that mean they are saying the team has a 55%, 60%, 65% etc..., chance of winning? The conversion formula is:

WinExp% = [ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] + 1)

The -155 we looked at in the example becomes...

WinExp% = [ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] + 1)

Simplified to...

WinExp% = 1.5 / (1.5 + 1)

Which gives us... 1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6 or a 60% chance of winning.

Note: This algorithm had to strip out the house edge that Vegas add to each line.

Feel free to use my handy Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator, via Google docs.

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Simulations for Friday, August 3rd

Simulations for Friday, August 3rd. Current prediction record is 188-143.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers D.Davis vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 56.45 58.3 DBacks
Giants vs Padres M.Cain vs G.Maddux Padres 58.50 54.5 Padres
Rockies vs Braves J.Francis vs J.Smoltz Braves 54.20 61.5 Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 147.85 0
LV Hilton Odds 134.70 0

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Simulations for Thursday, August 2nd

Simulations for Thursday, August 2nd. Current prediction record is 186-142.
Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Favored Team Expected Chance of Winning Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers B.Zito vs B.Tomko Dodgers 53.40 Giants
DBacks vs Padres Y.Petit vs J.Peavy Padres 61.50 Padres
Rockies vs Marlins J.Hirsh vs R.VanderHulk Rockies 60.75 Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds