Saturday, July 31, 2010

Post Trade Mortem



August 1st, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Kershaw vs M.Cain Giants 51.92% 48.95% SF 2-0


Current ROI: 3.35%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/31 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22
1 Padres 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55%
2 Giants 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33%
3 Dodgers 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65%
4 Rockies 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47%


MLB Scoreboard
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Friday, July 30, 2010

Playoff Hopes Dimming



July 31st, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs B.Zito Giants 52.38% 50.73% SF 2-1


Current ROI: 3.25%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21
1 Padres 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62%
2 Giants 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07%
3 Dodgers 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04%
4 Rockies 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28%


MLB Scoreboard
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Thursday, July 29, 2010

Beating LA!



July 30th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum Giants 63.90% 67.94% SF 6-5
Pirates Cardinals J.Karstens vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 75.00% 75.18% STL 1-0
Cubs Rockies R.Dempster vs J.Francis Rockies 53.70% 60.98% COL 17-2
Marlins Padres C.Volstad vs W.LeBlanc Padres 55.56% 53.56% FLA 4-2
Phillies Nationals R.Oswalt vs C.Stammen Phillies 62.55% 51.26% WAS 8-1
DBacks Mets I.Kennedy vs M.Pelfrey Mets 58.16% 59.17% ARI 9-6
Braves Reds K.Medlen vs J.Cueto Reds 57.08% 53.92% ATL 6-4
Brewers Astros M.Parra vs J.Happ Brewers 51.92% 52.24% HOU 5-0
Indians Blue Jays J.Masterson vs S.Marcum Blue Jays 63.50% 61.65% TOR 8-1
Tigers Red Sox A.Galarraga vs J.Lester Red Sox 71.01% 71.35% DET 6-5
Yankees Rays P.Hughes vs W.Davis Yankees 51.46% 56.04% TB 3-2
Mariners Twins D.Fister vs S.Baker Twins 62.96% 61.53% MIN 5-3
Orioles Royals J.Arrieta vs S.O'Sullivan Royals 55.75% 55.17% KC 7-5
A's White Sox B.Anderson vs D.Hudson A's 50.74% 53.29% CHA 6-1
Rangers Angels T.Hunter vs E.Santana Angels 52.38% 54.62% LAA 9-7


Current ROI: 2.76%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20
1 Padres 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09%
2 Giants 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94%
3 Dodgers 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84%
4 Rockies 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13%


MLB Scoreboard
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Dodgers Make Small Deal Out Of Loss



July 29th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres V.Padilla vs C.Richard Padres 56.90% 58.45% SD 3-2


Current ROI: 2.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19
1 Padres 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52%
2 Giants 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28%
3 Dodgers 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36%
4 Rockies 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84%


MLB Scoreboard
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Dodgers Full Of Bull-Pen



July 28th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres H.Kuroda vs C.Richard Padres 51.92% 52.54% SD 6-1


Current ROI: 3.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18
1 Padres 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12%
2 Giants 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88%
3 Dodgers 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34%
4 Rockies 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66%


MLB Scoreboard
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Monday, July 26, 2010

Dodgers Hope To Wake Padres Up From Dream Season



July 27th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres C.Billingsley vs J.Garland Padres 52.61% 46.77% LAN 2-0
DBacks Phillies R.Lopez vs C.Hamels Phillies 68.75% 70.89% PHI 9-5
Cardinals Mets J.Garcia vs J.Niese Cardinals 57.98% 51.32% NYN 8-2
Cubs Astros T.Lilly vs B.Myers Cubs 50.98% 44.48% HOU 6-1
Reds Brewers E.Volquez vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 59.18% 68.62% CIN 12-4
Pirates Rockies Z.Duke vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 67.32% 67.91% PIT 4-2
Marlins Giants J.Johnson vs M.Cain Marlins 52.15% 52.83% SF 6-4
Yankees Indians C.Sabathia vs C.Carasco Yankees 58.94% 64.83% CLE 4-1
Orioles Blue Jays K.Millwood vs R.Romero Blue Jays 67.32% 69.18% TOR 8-2
Tigers Rays J.Verlander vs J.Shields Rays 55.95% 53.24% TB 3-2
A's Rangers G.Gonzalez vs C.Lee Rangers 70.41% 64.79% TEX 3-1
Twins Royals C.Pavano vs B.Chen Twins 58.51% 51.90% MIN 11-2
Mariners White Sox R.Rowland vs G.Floyd White Sox 69.33% 74.71% CHA 11-0
Red Sox Angels J.Lackey vs J.Weaver Angels 59.51% 52.65% BOS 4-2


Current ROI: 3.03%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Giants 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
3 Dodgers 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
4 Rockies 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


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Sunday, July 25, 2010

Big Upcoming Series in San Diego



July 26th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Phillies J.Hammel vs J.Blanton Phillies 53.49% 50.35% PHI 5-4
Marlins Giants R.Nolasco vs B.Zito Giants 56.33% 55.90% FLA 4-3


Current ROI: 2.92%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Giants 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
3 Dodgers 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
4 Rockies 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
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Saturday, July 24, 2010

Bullpen Doesn't Blow It



July 25th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Mets Dodgers R.Dickey vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.64% 60.96% LAN 1-0


Current ROI: 2.94%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/25 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 46.16% 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Giants 28.29% 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
3 Dodgers 19.65% 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
4 Rockies 5.90% 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


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Friday, July 23, 2010

Losing Ground In Playoff Race



July 24th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Mets Dodgers M.Pelfrey vs C.Monasterios Dodgers 54.55% 48.45% LAN 3-2


Current ROI: 3.09%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/24 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 45.01% 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Giants 27.05% 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
3 Dodgers 19.72% 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
4 Rockies 8.22% 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
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Thursday, July 22, 2010

Second Verse, Same As The First



July 23rd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Mets Dodgers J.Santana vs V.Padilla Dodgers 53.49% 53.99% NYN 6-1
Cardinals Cubs J.Suppan vs R.Wells Cubs 60.47% 61.26% CHN 5-0
Padres Pirates K.Correia vs P.Maholm Padres 52.38% 48.32% SD 5-3
Rockies Phillies A.Cook vs R.Halladay Phillies 66.89% 66.46% PHI 6-0
Braves Marlins D.Lowe vs A.Sanabia Braves 50.74% 53.48% FLA 7-6
Reds Astros T.Wood vs B.Norris Reds 58.85% 45.78% CIN 6-4
Nationals Brewers C.Stammen vs C.Narveson Brewers 57.45% 56.61% MIL 7-5
Giants DBacks J.Sanchez vs E.Jackson Giants 51.22% 50.56% SF 7-4
Twins Orioles N.Blackburn vs J.Guthrie Twins 56.33% 47.84% BAL 3-2
Rays Indians J.Nieman vs F.Carmona Rays 59.18% 54.06% CLE 3-1
Royals Yankees B.Bannister vs A.Burnett Yankees 69.51% 66.69% NYA 7-1
Angels Rangers J.Saunders vs C.Wilson Rangers 65.03% 63.44% TEX 1-0
White Sox A's M.Buehrle vs T.Cahill A's 56.71% 50.31% CHA 5-1
Red Sox Mariners J.Becket vs J.Vargas Red So 54.34% 48.72% BOS 2-1


Current ROI: 3.23%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/23 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 41.42% 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Dodgers 24.69% 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
3 Giants 23.63% 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
4 Rockies 10.26% 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Bullpen Rests, Dodgers Win



July 22nd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Mets Dodgers H.Takahashi vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 61.69% 63.88% LAN 2-0
Rockies Marlins J.de la Rosa vs J.Johnson Marlins 65.99% 70.86% FLA 3-2
Nationals Reds L.Hernandez vs E.Volquez Reds 62.41% 47.09% WAS 7-1
Padres Braves C.Richard vs T.Hudson Braves 60.16% 53.87% ATL 8-0
Phillies Cardinals C.Hamels vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 60.32% 61.31% PHI 2-0
Brewers Pirates Y.Gallardo vs R.Ohlendorf Brewers 60.94% 63.22% MIL 3-2
Giants DBacks M.Cain vs R.Lopez Giants 54.75% 57.51% SF 3-0
Blue Jays Tigers R.Romero vs J.Verlander Tigers 59.02% 57.56% DET 5-2
Twins Orioles C.Pavano vs K.Millwood Twins 60.00% 57.63% MIN 5-0
Royals Yankees B.Chen vs C.Sabathia Yankees 71.91% 69.30% NYA 10-4
Angels Rangers J.Weaver vs C.Lee Rangers 62.55% 62.28% TEX 3-2
Red Sox Mariners J.Lackey vs R.Rowland Red Sox 60.00% 62.49% TBD


Current ROI: 2.86%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/22 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 45.55% 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Dodgers 21.65% 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
3 Giants 20.33% 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
4 Rockies 12.47% 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
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Stop This Madness



July 21st, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers B.Zito vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 56.52% 56.84% LAN 2-0
Astros Cubs B.Myers vs T.Lilly Cubs 60.63% 55.18% HOU 4-3
Brewers Pirates R.Wolf vs Z.Duke Brewers 54.75% 48.78% PIT 15-3
Rockies Marlins J.Hammel vs R.Nolasco Marlins 53.05% 51.09% FLA 5-2
Nationals Reds S.Strasburg vs B.Arroyo Nationals 52.61% 56.86% WAS 8-5
Padres Braves J.Garland vs T.Hanson Braves 60.78% 67.71% SD 6-4
Phillies Cardinals J.Blanton vs J.Garcia Cardinals 57.98% 66.37% STL 5-1
Mets DBacks J.Niese vs D.Haren DBacks 55.36% 51.73% ARI 4-3
Rays Orioles J.Shields vs B.Bergesen Rays 64.79% 55.09% TB 5-4
Angels Yankees J.Pineiro vs J.Vazquez Yankees 63.77% 58.01% NYA 10-6
Indians Twins J.Westbrook vs F.Liriano Twins 67.74% 72.94% MIN 6-0
Blue Jays Royals M.Rzepcynski vs Z.Greinke Royals 60.78% 60.17% KC 5-2
Red Sox A's C.Buchholz vs G.Gonzalez Red Sox 53.05% 49.66% OAK 6-4
Rangers Tigers C.Lewis vs M.Scherzer Rangers 51.22% 48.67% DET 4-1
White Sox Mariners G.Floyd vs F.Hernandez Mariners 56.71% 49.74% SEA 2-1

Red Flag Pitchers


Lucky
1. Randy Wolf-MIL (BABIP .278)
2. Clay Buchholz-BOS (BABIP .275, HR/FB 3.6%)
3. Jaime Garcia-STL (LOB% 79.8%, HR/FB 5.3%)
4. Jon Garland-SD (BABIP .276)

Unlucky
1. Francisco Liriano-MIN (BABIP .358, LOB% 69.5%, but a HR/FB of 2.4%)
2. Joe Blanton-PHI (BABIP .331, LOB% 62.6%, HR/FB 12.6%)
3. Chad Billingsley-LAN (BABIP .347, LOB% 67.5%)
4. Brad Bergesen-BAL (BABIP .329, LOB% 62.1%)
5. Tommy Hanson-ATL (BABIP .349, LOB% 70.8%, but a HR/FB of 6.2%)


Current ROI: 2.99%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/21 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 40.62% 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Giants 24.07% 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
3 Dodgers 20.04% 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
4 Rockies 15.28% 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
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Monday, July 19, 2010

Pocket Aces



July 20th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 53.70% 54.67% SF 7-5
Rockies Marlins J.Francis vs N.Robertson Rockies 52.15% 47.86% COL 10-0
Padres Braves W.LeBlanc vs J.Jurrjens Braves 63.24% 62.26% ATL 4-1
Mets DBacks R.Dickey vs B.Enright Mets 53.92% 59.24% ARI 3-2
Brewers Pirates D.Bush vs B.Lincoln Brewers 53.92% 55.27% PIT 11-9
Nationals Reds L.Atilano vs M.Leake Reds 61.98% 56.61% CIN 8-7
Astros Cubs W.Wright vs R.Dempster Cubs 69.14% 69.49% CHN 14-7
Phillies Cardinals J.Moyer vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 62.96% 61.43% STL 7-1
Rays Orioles M.Garza vs J.Arrieta Rays 65.03% 54.36% BAL 11-10
Rangers Tigers T.Hunter vs A.Galarraga Rangers 53.49% 50.42% TEX 8-0
Angels Yankees S.Kazmir vs P.Hughes Yankees 70.06% 72.38% LAA 10-2
Indians Twins J.Masterson vs K.Slowey Twins 63.24% 59.40% CLE 4-3
Blue Jays Royals J.Litsch vs A.Larew Blue Jays 50.98% 54.11% TOR 13-1
Red Sox A's T.Wakefield vs D.Braden A's 52.83% 59.82% OAK 5-4
White Sox Mariners J.Danks vs D.Fister White Sox 53.92% 53.23% CHA 4-0

Current ROI: 3.06%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/20 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 44.09% 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Dodgers 23.84% 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
3 Giants 19.94% 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
4 Rockies 12.13% 13.84% 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Rough Seas



July 19th, Simulations of Interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers M.Bumgarner vs J.McDonald Dodgers 53.92% 51.06% SF 5-2
Rockies Marlins U.Jimenez vs A.Sanchez Rockies 59.02% 49.14% FLA 9-8
Mets DBacks M.Pelfrey vs I.Kennedy DBacks 52.15% 48.89% ARI 13-2

Current ROI: 2.69%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/19 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 42.52% 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Dodgers 27.36% 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
3 Giants 16.28% 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
4 Rockies 13.84 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

That Sinking Feeling



July 18th, Simulations of Interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Cardinals V.Padilla vs J.Suppan Dodgers 58.68% 55.06% STL 5-4
Phillies Cubs R.Halladay vs T.Gorzellany Phillies 61.83% 48.33% CHN 11-6
Mets Giants J.Santana vs J.Sanchez Mets 51.69% 41.27% NYN 4-3
Nationals Marlins C.Stammen vs A.Sanabia Marlins 57.63% 50.77% FLA 1-0

Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/18 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Padres 37.12% 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
2 Dodgers 31.34% 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
3 Giants 19.88% 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
4 Rockies 11.66% 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Friday, July 16, 2010

Man Ham Strung



July 17th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Cardinals H.Kuroda vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 61.69% 60.29% STL 2-0

Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 7/17 7/16 7/15
1 Dodgers 35.52% 39.18% 43.33%
2 Padres 33.01% 29.36% 28.48%
3 Giants 17.02% 14.71% 12.35%
4 Rockies 14.44% 16.75% 15.84%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Some Don't Like It Hot



July 16th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Cardinals C.Billingsley vs J.Garcia Cardinals 56.90% 57.08% STL 8-4
Astros Pirates B.Myers vs Z.Duke Astros 50.74% 52.32% HOU 5-2
Rockies Reds J.Hammel vs B.Arroyo Reds 54.75% 49.02% CIN 3-2
Nationals Marlins S.Strasburg vs R.Nolasco Nationals 53.27% 51.95% WAS 4-0
Mets Giants J.Niese vs B.Zito Giants 54.75% 56.25% SF 1-0
Tigers Indians M.Scherzer vs J.Westbrook Tigers 58.33% 57.31% CLE 8-2
Blue Jays Orioles R.Romero vs B.Bergesen Blue Jays 60.00% 61.56% TOR 4-2
Rays Yankees J.Shields vs C.Sabathia Yankees 64.66% 63.79% NYA 5-4
Rangers Red Sox C.Lewis vs F.Doubront Rangers 54.75% 53.64% TEX 8-4
A's Royals G.Gonzalez vs Z.Greinke Royals 58.33% 56.93% OAK 5-1
White Sox Twins G.Floyd vs F.Liriano Twins 57.08% 61.92% MIN 7-4
Mariners Angels F.Hernandez vs J.Weaver Angels 56.14% 55.07% LAA 3-2
Brewers Braves R.Wolf vs T.Hanson Braves 62.83% 71.44% MIL 9-3

Current ROI: 2.72%

50,000 NL West Seasonal Simulations
NL West Title Hopes
Place Team Likely Sim Wins Likely Sim Losses Max Wins Min Wins NL West Champs Yesterday
1 Dodgers 88.86 73.14 105 70 39.18% 43.33%
2 Padres 87.88 74.12 108 70 29.36% 28.48%
3 Rockies 86.10 75.90 103 69 16.75% 15.84%
4 Giants 85.69 76.31 104 68 14.71% 12.35%


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Seasonal Team Projections, Read View Mirror


It's time to take a look at how the simulators pre-season team projections are working out. Keep in mind that the simulator simulated the season 10,000 times, and the actual empirical result is nothing more than one sample, so you are bound to see a few teams miss their projected win totals by quite a bit. Here is how the projections look thus far.

Team Division On Pace Wins Simulator Wins Delta Wins Closest Rank
Padres NL West 93.9 72.3 21.6 30th
Dodgers NL West 90.2 93.8 3.6 10th
Rockies NL West 90.2 86.7 3.5 9th
Giants NL West 86.5 75.6 10.9 19th
DBacks NL West 61.9 82.7 20.8 29th
Reds NL Central 88.2 75.1 13.1 23rd
Cardinals NL Central 86.5 84.6 1.9 5th
Brewers NL Central 72.8 78.0 5.2 13th
Cubs NL Central 71.0 87.9 16.9 24th
Astros NL Central 65.5 71.9 6.4 16th
Pirates NL Central 55.2 72.5 17.3 26th
Braves NL East 95.7 90.3 5.4 15th
Mets NL East 88.4 75.7 12.7 22nd
Phillies NL East 87.5 90.1 2.6 6th
Marlins NL East 77.3 81.2 3.9 11th
Nationals NL East 71.0 74.9 3.9 12th
Rangers AL West 92.0 80.9 11.1 20th
Angels AL West 83.7 82.2 1.5 3rd
A's AL West 78.3 81.5 3.2 8th
Mariners AL West 64.4 82.4 18.0 27th
White Sox AL Central 91.2 82.1 9.1 18th
Tigers AL Central 90.4 77.9 12.5 21st
Twins AL Central 84.7 86.5 1.8 4th
Royals AL Central 71.8 72.2 0.4 1st
Indians AL Central 62.6 69.9 7.3 17th
Yankees AL East 103.1 102.0 1.1 2nd
Rays AL East 99.4 82.2 17.2 25th
Red Sox AL East 93.9 91.0 2.9 7th
Blue Jays AL East 80.1 74.7 5.4 14th
Orioles AL East 53.4 71.5 18.1 28th

Notes: The five closest seasonal win total projections so far are the Royals, Yankees, Angels, Twins and Cardinals. The five biggest surprises have been the Padres, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners and Pirates.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Around The Clubhouse Turn



July 15th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Cardinals C.Kershaw vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 54.34% 51.48% STL 7-1
Brewers Braves D.Bush vs J.Jurrjens Braves 62.26% 59.93% ATL 2-1
Phillies Cubs J.Moyer vs R.Dempster Cubs 56.52% 57.21% CHN 12-6
Mets Giants R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum Giants 63.24% 58.22% SF 2-0
Rangers Red Sox T.Hunter vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 51.46% 48.03% TEX 7-2
White Sox Twins J.Danks vs K.Slowey Twins 52.15% 47.24% CHA 8-7
Mariners Angels D.Fister vs J.Pineiro Angels 60.00% 56.06% LAA 8-3

Current ROI: 2.76%

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Saturday, July 10, 2010

Stage Fright Game



July 11th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Dodgers C.Silva vs V.Padilla Dodgers 58.33% 50.66% LAN 7-0

Current ROI: 3.39%

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Friday, July 09, 2010

Crush The Cubs



July 10th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Dodgers T.Gorzelanny vs J.Ely Dodgers 59.35% 58.72% CHN 7-3
Braves Mets T.Hudson vs M.Pelfrey Braves 53.05% 49.24% ATL 4-0
Reds Phillies T.Wood vs R.Halladay Phillies 66.22% 65.83% PHI 1-0
Giants Nationals J.Sanchez vs C.Stammen Giants 51.69% 51.68% SF 10-5
Cardinals Astros J.Suppan vs B.Myers Astros 56.14% 46.52% HOU 4-1
Pirates Brewers J.Karstens vs D.Bush Brewers 62.26% 67.06% MIL 4-3
Padres Rockies W.LeBlanc vs J.Hammel Rockies 58.85% 57.89% COL 4-2
Marlins DBacks N.Robertson vs I.Kennedy DBacks 58.515 50.79% ARI 5-4
Red Sox Blue Jays J.Lackey vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 53.27% 59.92% TOR 9-5
Twins Tigers N.Blackburn vs J.Bonderman Tigers 58.85% 57.55% DET 7-4
Royals White Sox B.Bannister vs G.Floyd White Sox 64.29% 67.54% CHA 5-1
Indians Rays A.Laffey vs M.Garza Rays 70.59% 62.52% TB 4-0
Orioles Rangers C.Tillman vs C.Lee Rangers 77.27% 77.26% BAL 6-1
Angels A's S.Kazmir vs B.Sheets A's 56.90% 57.50% OAK 15-1
Yankees Mariners J.Vazquez vs F.Hernandez Yankees 51.92% 47.05% SEA 4-1

Current ROI: 3.71%

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Thursday, July 08, 2010

Kershaw Cranks It Up



July 9th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Dodgers T.Lilly vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 59.18% 63.86% LAN 9-7
Reds Phillies M.Leake vs J.Blanton Phillies 52.38% 53.32% PHI 9-7
Giants Nationals M.Cain vs S.Strasburg Nationals 59.18% 58.15% WAS 8-1
Braves Mets T.Hanson vs R.Dickey Braves 52.38% 49.79% ATL 4-2
Cardinals Astros A.Wainwright vs B.Norris Cardinals 62.26% 58.76% STL 8-0
Pirates Brewers P.Maholm vs D.Davis Brewers 59.51% 59.85% MIL 5-4
Padres Rockies K.Correia vs J.DeLaRosa Rockies 62.12% 59.80% COL 10-8
Marlins DBacks R.Nolasco vs D.Haren DBacks 57.45% 58.17% FLA 3-2
Twins Tigers F.Liriano vs J.Verlander Tigers 54.75% 47.63% DET 7-3
Red Sox Blue Jays J.Lester vs R.Romero Blue Jays 56.14% 52.20% BOS 14-3
Indians Rays F.Carmona vs J.Shields Rays 68.15% 63.06% CLE 9-3
Orioles Rangers B.Matusz vs S.Feldman Rangers 65.40% 57.46% BAL 7-6
Royals White Sox B.Chen vs M.Buehrle White Sox 59.51% 62.44% CHA 8-2
Angels A's J.Pineiro vs V.Mazzaro Angels 50.74% 50.96% LAA 6-5
Yankees Mariners P.Hughes vs C.Lee Mariners 50.50% 55.28% NYA 6-1

Current ROI: 3.25%

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Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Cubs Come To Town



July 8th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Dodgers R.Wells vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 65.87% 59.59% LAN 3-2
Giants Brewers B.Zito vs M.Parra Breweres 51.92% 54.81% SF 9-3
Pirates Astros R.Ohledorf vs R.Oswalt Astros 66.56% 62.74% HOU 2-0
Padres Nationals M.Latos vs L.Atilano Padres 59.84% 54.79% SD 7-1
Reds Phillies J.Cueto vs K.Kendrick Reds 51.92% 48.80% PHI 4-3
Marlins DBacks A.Sanchez vs R.Lopez Marlins 53.05% 56.74% ARI 10-4
Angels White Sox E.Santana vs J.Danks White Sox 56.90% 62.24% CHA 1-0
Twins Blue Jays S.Baker vs B.Cecil Blue Jays 53.70% 55.13% TOR 8-1
Indians Rays J.Westbrook vs W.Davis Rays 66.67% 58.08% TB 5-2
Orioles Rangers J.Guthrie vs T.Hunter Rangers 71.43% 64.67% BAL 6-4
Yankees Mariners A.Pettitte vs J.Vargas Yankees 61.09% 53.43% NYA 3-1

Current ROI: 3.77%

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Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Kuroda And Hyde



July 7th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Marlins Dodgers J.Johnson vs H.Kuroda Marlins 52.38% 49.89% FLA 4-0
Padres Nationals J.Garland vs J.Martin Padres 50.98% 48.69% WAS 7-6
Braves Phillies K.Medlen vs J.Moyer Phillies 52.83% 50.91% ATL 7-5
Reds Mets B.Arroyo vs J.Niese Mets 52.83% 58.32% CIN 3-1
Pirates Astros D.McCutchen vs B.Moehler Astros 53.92% 60.51% HOU 6-3
Giants Brewers T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson Giants 54.55% 52.58% SF 15-2
Cardinals Rockies J.Garcia vs A.Cook Cardinals 50.25% 57.43% COL 8-7
Cubs DBacks R.Dempster vs E.Jackson Cubs 51.69% 46.58% CHN 8-3
Orioles Tigers B.Bergesen vs M.Scherzer Tigers 68.75% 64.52% DET 4-2
Red Sox Rays T.Wakefield vs D.Price Rays 63.10% 65.44% TB 6-4
Indians Rangers M.Talbot vs C.Wilson Rangers 69.70% 65.90% TEX 4-3
Angels White Sox J.Saunders vs F.Garcia White Sox 53.92% 59.24% CHA 5-2
Yankees A's A.Burnett vs G.Gonzalez Yankees 54.13% 45.03% NYA 6-2
Royals Mariners K.Davies vs D.Fister Mariners 58.68% 56.43% KC 7-3

Current ROI: 4.36%

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Monday, July 05, 2010

Marlins Reel Dodgers In



July 6th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Marlins Dodgers C.Volstad vs V.Padilla Dodgers 61.54% 53.13% LAN 7-3
Pirates Astros B.Lincoln vs W.Rodriguez Astros 57.98% 60.84% HOU 6-2
Giants Brewers M.Bumgarner vs R.Wolf Brewers 57.98% 53.74% SF 6-1
Cardinals Rockies B.Hawksworth vs J.Francis Rockies 57.45% 61.76% COL 12-9
Cubs Diamondbacks C.Silva vs B.Enright Cubs 51.69% 56.14% CHN 6-4
Indians Rangers J.Masterson vs C.Wilson Rangers 68.55% 63.25% CLE 12-1
Angels White Sox J.Weaver vs J.Peavy Angels 51.46% 43.40% CHA 4-1
Yankees A's C.Sabathia vs T.Cahill Yankees 59.02% 52.06% NYA 6-1

Current ROI: 4.26%

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Sunday, July 04, 2010

Dodgers Blogger Night



July 5th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Marlins Dodgers N.Robertson vs J.Ely Dodgers 61.83% 59.84% FLA 6-5
Giants Brewers J.Sanchez vs D.Bush Brewers 53.49% 52.25% SF 6-1
Cubs DBacks T.Gorzelanny vs I.Kennedy DBacks 55.16% 46.37% CHN 9-4
Braves Phillies D.Lowe vs R.Halladay Phillies 62.41% 59.80% PHI 3-1
Orioles Tigers K.Millwood vs A.Oliver Tigers 63.24% 61.96% DET 12-9
Angels White Sox S.Kazmir vs G.Floyd White Sox 58.33% 66.00% CHA 9-2
Red Sox Rays D.Matsuzaka vs M.Garza Rays 57.81% 52.58% TB 6-5
Indians Rangers A.Laffey vs O.Beltre Rangers 64.66% 57.20% CLE 9-3
Yankees A's J.Vazquez vs B.Sheets Yankees 59.51% 54.39% NYA 3-1
Royals Mariners B.Bannister vs F.Hernandez Mariners 66.10% 63.71% KC 6-4

Current ROI: 3.67%

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Note: I will be attending tonight's game!

Friday, July 02, 2010

Dodgers Can't Contain Arizona Bats



July 3rd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs R.Lopez Dodgers 60.16% 62.32% LAN 14-1
Reds Cubs J.Cueto vs R.Wells Reds 53.49% 45.51% CHN 3-1
Marlins Braves A.Sanchez vs T.Hanson Braves 61.39% 61.86% ATL 4-1
Mets Nationals R.Dickey vs S.Strasburg Nationals 64.41% 57.06% WAS 6-5
Brewers Cardinals M.Parra vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 66.33% 59.26% MIL 12-5
Phillies Pirates K.Kendrick vs P.Maholm Phillies 53.49% 48.31% PHI 12-4
Giants Rockies B.Zito vs U.Jimenez Rockies 66.67% 59.68% SF 11-8
Astros Padres B.Norris vs K.Correia Padres 62.41% 56.11% SD 1-0
Blue Jays Yankees R.Romero vs A.Pettitte Yankees 62.83% 54.95% NYA 11-3
Rays Twins W.Davis vs F.Liriano Twins 60.00% 71.87% TB 8-6
A's Indians C.Mortensen vs J.Westbrook Indians 51.92% 53.85% CLE 5-4
Mariners Tigers J.Vargas vs J.Verlander Tigers 64.16% 61.25% DET 6-1
Orioles Red Sox J.Guthrie vs J.Lester Red Sox 74.36% 69.73% BOS 9-3
White Sox Rangers J.Danks vs T.Hunter Rangers 57.45% 53.61% TEX 3-1
Royals Angels B.Chen vs E.Santana 63.90% 56.01% KC 4-2

Current ROI: 3.67%

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Note: No Sunday simulations

Thursday, July 01, 2010

Furcal Takes Sizzle To Phoenix



July 2nd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks H.Kuroda vs E.Jackson Dodgers 51.92% 53.76% ARI 12-5
Reds Cubs B.Arroyo vs R.Dempster Cubs 56.52% 57.59% CIN 12-0
Phillies Pirates J.Moyer vs R.Ohlendorf Phillies 58.33% 54.28% PIT 2-0
Mets Nationals J.Niese vs L.Atilano Mets 51.22% 45.98% NYN 5-3
Marlins Braves J.Johnson vs K.Medlen Marlins 53.05% 48.05% ATL 4-3
Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin Giants 50.74% 46.94% COL 6-3
Brewers Cardinals C.Narverson vs J.Garcia Cardinals 62.55% 62.19% STL 5-0
Astros Padres R.Oswalt vs M.Latos Padres 61.09% 57.83% SD 3-0
Blue Jays Yankees B.Cecil vs A.Burnett Yankees 62.69% 53.79% TOR 6-1
A's Indians G.Gonzalez vs M.Talbot A's 53.05% 50.59% OAK 3-0
Mariners Tigers D.Fister vs M.Scherzer Tigers 62.55% 56.63% DET 7-1
Orioles Red Sox B.Bergesen vs T.Wakefield Red Sox 68.75% 60.05% BOS 3-2
White Sox Rangers F.Garcia vs C.Lewis Rangers 64.41% 57.63% CHA 5-3
Rays Twins D.Price vs S.Baker Rays 52.61% 48.43% MIN 2-1
Royals Angels K.Davies vs J.Saunders Angels 60.94% 53.69% KC 2-1

Current ROI: 2.97%

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Trip To China, City of Handan


Part I
Part II
After spending four fun days in the capitol city of Beijing, we said a temporary good-bye (we'd be back in a week) to friends, family and The Bird's Nest and made our way to the West Beijing Railway Station. The drive from our hotel on the NE side of the city took around one hour. We were fortunate enough to be given a ride to the railway station by a friend (Pang) of my wife's sister (who was with us in Beijing), who had a Jeep that was large enough to fit our three large suitcases along with four passengers. The railway station, more so than most other buildings in Beijing was huge. It was a large four story building, with an ornate Chinese architecture to it. If you hadn't known it was a railway station, you'd most likely wonder what this place was. The traffic both auto and pedestrian out in front of the railway station was buzzing. There were large lines to get through the screening area and the seating area inside was packed. The inside of the railway station looks more like an airport and might possibly only be rivaled in the US by Grand Central Station in New York, but I think it is still bigger.

The train ride was very pleasant. Our train was a "bullet train", which reached speeds of up to 205 KPH (or 127 MPH) which got us to Handan in just under three hours. The first two times we made this trip in the past, the train took five hours and was rather uncomfortable. This train was cozy. The train ride took us into the province of Hebei, south through the province's capitol city of Shijiazhuang (I didn't need to look the spelling up!). What stood out as we passed through Shijiazhuang was all the high rise construction that was going on. There were large cranes almost everywhere. As our train sped closer to Handan, I began to take notice of the ticker display at the front of our carriage. The ticker along with all announcements was in both English and Chinese. The ticker was saying that the outside temperate was 40.5C. I did some quick math in my head and came up with 105F degrees. I figured there must have been some kind of error and maybe the thermometer was stationed incorrectly. Upon arrival in Handan, when we exited the train and stepped on to the platform with our three heavy suitcases and various carry on baggage in tow, I realized that there was no error and that we had just stepped into a furnace. It was indeed 105F degrees.

As we stepped off the platform and into the small railway station in Handan, a city of 2 million people (small by China standards), we were met by a large welcoming party of aunts, uncles, cousins, grandparents, nieces, nephews, neighbors - you name it. It is one of my favorite parts of travelling to China and especially Handan where my wife's family lives. All of the wonderful hospitality just warms your heart. Our suitcases and heavy baggage were whisked away into one car, while we were seated in the "most comfortable" car, which was likely the one with the best air conditioning and driven through the dusty streets of Handan to my wife's parent’s house where we would be staying at for the next eight days.

During this China trip, my daughter would be turning six years old. Obviously, she was a bit concerned about not being able to celebrate her birthday with a big party at Chuckie Cheese or Jolly Jumpers, but when we arrived at my wife's parent’s house there was a big birthday party celebration waiting for her. My nephew had done his best at cooking a couple of pizzas for us. They were actually pretty good considering it is not easy to get the ingredients that we are us to having in our pizzas back in the states. Another group of relatives had worked hard making a huge stack of yummy dumplings and someone had actually gone out and bought a nice birthday cake. It was a nice touch.

Our days in Handan were mostly filled with eating, visiting friends and family, eating and finding something fun for my daughter to do. The food is great in Handan. Everyone was always "meeting" us for lunch or dinner. There was a different face at almost every restaurant. Everyone was so generous and hospitable and eager to make you feel as comfortable as possible. Many people wanted to show respect to me by drinking lots of beer (genbei is the Chinese word meaning cheers in English. When given a toast and the words "genbei" spoken, you must drink your whole glass of beer). I had to make sure I set my limits on beer consumption, otherwise I'd end up sleeping or doing who knows what. The beer in China is good, the only problem I had with the beer, soda, water and all drinks in general is that they drink them at room temperature and you need to ask to have a cold drink and a cold drink is usually just a few degrees cooler than the room temperature ones. But when in China, do as the locals do and don't complain. My favorite meals in Handan, were the home cooked jiaozi (pork dumplings) and the dan dan mian (Spicy noodles), which I luckily ate two times at my favorite restaurant and lastly the huo guo (hot pot) dinner, even though it was 95F degrees outside, I was kindly taken to eat hot pot. Xei Xei! (Thanks!) It was during this second dan dan mian meal that a person in our dinner party informed me that, yes indeed the Lakers had defeated the Celtics in Game #7 of the NBA Finals. I immediately stood and raised my glass and gave a toast. :) It was this family friend that invited me to play in a soccer game with his travelling adult team. I was leant a uniform and soccer shoes, I must've accidentally forgot to pack my cleats. :) The game was played at 8AM so it was only mildly hot. The game was played in the Handan College Stadium on an astro turf field. We scored the first goal, then ended up losing 3-1. I didn't get to play much as the team had 18 rostered players. But now I can say that I've played in an organized soccer game on three seperate continents (USA, Germany and China as the countries).

Shopping. Handan is a great place to go shopping for things like clothes, which is generally what my wife likes to shop for. I am not a big shopper, but I don't mind coming along for the ride for a little while just see some of the interesting things that are for sale. There are a couple of shopping malls in Handan. They don't look anything like malls in the US. They are basically four or five story buildings with escalators or stairs going up them. The stores are more like large stalls, often just partitioned off from the next stall. And there are many many stalls to look at and visit. There are two or three different malls in Handan all located in the central shopping district. There is the cheap clothing mall, the medium priced clothing mall and the mall with prices like we have here at home. Most of the brands I had never heard of and some of the brands were just slightly different spellings than some western brands I had heard of and I am sure many copyrights were being broken. Luckily for us, my wife has family members that own four children’s clothing stores in one of the malls, one of them was a Disney brand store (I was told it was legit Disney stuff). The family members were so generous, they basically told my wife and daughter to walk through the stores and pick out "anything" you wanted. Clothes, hats, jewelry, shoes... you name it. The funny thing is we didn't know they had opened a Disney store and we had brought their two children as gifts, items from the Disney store in our mall. Oops! :) Needless to say my wife and daughter (mostly my wife) had a field day shopping for clothes in Handan. Who can blame her with those discounts? I ended up buying two polo shirts that I can wear to work and for comparison sakes they cost me $8 each and would've likely cost me double that back in the US.

Having a five year old daughter with you on a trip requires that you find some fun entertaining things for her to do. And luckily there was plenty of things and people to keep her going in Handan. There were the cousins who spoke some English that played with her and took her to the park to play. Congtai Park (Congtai Gongyuan) is probably the best park in Handan. It has both an ancient history (and old fortress and moat from thousands of years ago) mixed in with a carnival area, small zoo, exercise area, garden area and many pleasant walk ways with vistas of the walled fortress. In Congtai Park, my daughter was able to ride small roller coasters, drive bumper cars, jump on trampolines and swing on the monkey bars (her favorite). There was also the kind uncle who took her and me to the five star hotel area where they have these huge water fountains, spraying water 30 feet up into the hot and humid air. This made for great fun for my daughter, running through the water with countless other kids. Wherever she goes in China, the people love to watch her and ask questions about her. It is not often they see too many waiguoren (foriegners) children in their neck of the woods. If I had a dollar for every picture that was taken of her, I'd be a rich man. One nephew took us to an elaborate play area on the top floor of one of the malls. We ended up spending more time at the bowling alley that I discovered up there. We bowled three or four games. The three of us were the only ones bowling and we had a large group of people watching us. It almost made me feel we were on the bowling tour. :) Bowling is the same in China, stinky rental shoes and wobbly balls.

The weather in Handan in mid June was hot and humid. The first day was the hottest, but the temps cooled off to the mid 90s, so it was somewhat bearable and the nights were very comfortable. It was at nighttime that you would see large groups of people doing various outdoor activities. Popular nighttime activities included, watching the World Cup on the huge big screen TV at Dragon Lake Park, Chinese line dancing, tai chi, walking, playing mah jong or exercising. It seems like everyone in the city lives in what we would call a high-rise apartment or flat. It was no different where we stayed. We were on the third floor of a seven story apartment building, with only stairs to take you up and down. If you are handicapped in China, I really really feel for you, but I won't get into that. Outside of our flat was a large common area that was part play ground, part exercise equipment and part general gathering area. In the evening my daughter had plenty of kids to play with. There was a girl who lived below us on the first floor (Chen Chen) who got along great with my daughter and they had various play dates even though they could barely communicate with each other. There was a kiosk near the front entrance gate to the apartment community that sold food, drinks and toys and many of the kids would buy these glow sticks and wear them around their ankles, wrists and necks at nighttime while running around. My daughter was of course, no different. The playground equipment was pretty good, but definitely would not be up to the basic safety standards of a playground in the US. All playgrounds in Handan had concrete and no padding on the ground, which made you cringe a little bit, but we survived with only one small scare/fall from the monkey bars.

The most obvious thing that stuck out on this our fourth trip to Handan in the past 5 years was all of the contruction that was taking place in the city. It seemed like everywhere you went there were buildings being torn down and new ones being built or already built. There were piles of rubble all over the place. My nephew let me in on what was going on. It turns out that the city of Handan has a 3-4 year modernization and beautification plan, of which they are more than half way through. I extrapolated this to believe that all the big cities in Hebei were running the same playbook. The city of Handan is getting new portions built, where once stood delapidated buildings. Now, five star hotels, international convention centers, shopping malls, beautiful high rise penthouse apartments are going up. There was one area in Xin Handan (New Handan) where large swaths of land had been leveled and groups of 30 high rises were going in. You new this just by counting the number of cranes that were hanging down over the land, like a large metal tree. The beautification plan is part of the Chinese Governments "stimulus" plan. An attempt to keep the economy rolling during the international financial crisis that we created. Atleast in China, their stimulus plan has some substance to it. You can see progress getting made and people working hard. Not like here where we spent most of our stimulus money bailing out the rich bankers or getting cash for clunkers. My guess is that when I visit Handan again (1-2 years from now), it will look more modern and the skyline easier on the eyes. Though the pace of construction will likely cool off in Handan (it seems to have in Beijing), it is something that will still be a part of most major cities. There is just so much to rebuild and modernization seems to be a high priority for the local governments.

Our second to last day in Handan was spent taking a scenic tour in the nearby Taishang mountains, home to the communist guerrilla troops of WWII, who hid out in these rugged mountains fighting off the occupational Japanese army. At 9AM a family friend picked us up in what must've been the nicest car I've ever ridden in in China, a brand new Nissan Pathfinder. The leg room was great and it had by far the best air conditioner of any car I had ridden in in China. The family friend drove us one hour to the nearby city of Wu'An. Most of the southern portion of the Hebei province (where we were) is a heavy industrialized area. The area is home to the largest iron and steel manufacturers in China. There is mining going on all over the place outside of the city limits. The air quality suffers quite a bit because of this. In Wu'An we transferred to a second driver, who drove us into the thickly wooded mountains about an hour outside of Wu'An. Our first stop was a huge dam and lake that looked like it was made out of something that probably wouldn't withstand a rather large earthquake. We continued on our drive, meandering through many small and primitive villages and passing beautiful vistas of awe inspiring rocky mountain tops. The type of views you might expect to see in a classical Chinese painting. We finally arrived at our destination at the edge of the Longevity Village and its Chang Shuo Shan (Long Life Mountain). Folk tale has it, that the people of the Longevity Village are healthy due to the clean environment and sparkling clear natural spring that runs down the mountain and they live for a long time. I was unable to verify this claim. But I met a local employee at the mountain who explained the folk tale to me in pretty clear English. I was surprised to find someone who spoke such good English in such a primitive village. The hiking trail at the mountain consisted of just fewer than two thousand man made steps leading up the face and canyon of the mountain ridge. The views of the surrounding mountains and valleys were splendid along with the breath-taking trail that was a canopy of trees with screaming bugs. A brief thundershower almost scared us away, but there were areas of the trail that you didn't get wet in due to the canopy. After the hike we ended up eating a delicious lunch in an outdoor restaurant/home. One of the locals had turned the small courtyard in front of their home, at the entrance to the trail, into a small restaurant. That's one of my own idioms of travelling in China. You are never more than a few steps away from a potentially great meal.

After a few tearful good-byes we were escorted to the Handan railway station. Three strong relatives were sent to escort us and carry our luggage for us and to make sure we got on the train without any problems. Another sign of the great hospitality and the family taking care of each other. The people in China may not be anywhere near as rich and in many cases as educated or as worldly as us, but what they are and what they have that is often lacking back here is the no strings attached generosity and feeling of the extended family taking care of each other. Someone living off of $50 per week, buying you something or taking time off work to do you a favor is as common as eating a bowl of rice. The simpler days of life are changing for the people in China. There are a lot more opportunities now for the young kids in China, but somehow they keep to their roots, which is that family is everything. Kids don't talk back to their parents or bad mouth adults. In general people are more humble and aren't arrogant, thinking they are better than others. Kids go to school six days a week, and go to school often until dinner time. Once home from dinner, homework often consumes the rest of the evening. Yes, there are complaints, but parents care about their children’s education and children who don't want to end up as gas station attendants or policemen who chase away kids flying kites realize that they need to do well in school to succeed later in life. Too bad some of those qualities aren't more prevalent here.

End of eight days spent in Handan. Next up. Return To The Bird's Nest.