Sunday, October 31, 2010

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #5 Simulation



November 1st Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Rangers T.Lincecum vs C.Lee Rangers 62.26% 57.96% SF 3-1


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Final Post-Season ROI: 42.07%

Simulation details at
Lonestar Ball
McCovey Chronicles

MLB Scoreboard

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #4 Simulation



October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Rangers M.Bumgarner vs T.Hunter Rangers 59.12% 45.62% SF 4-0


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 30.55%

Simulation details at

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #3 Simulation



October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Rangers J.Sanchez vs C.Lewis Rangers 59.51% 56.15% TEX 4-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

Simulation details at Lonestar Ball
Simulation details at McCovey Chronicles
Simulation details at Beyond The Boxscore

MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #2 Simulation



October 28th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Giants C.Wilson vs M.Cain Giants 52.38% 52.04% SF 9-0


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #1 Simulation



October 27th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Giants C.Lee vs T.Lincecum Rangers 54.34% 46.76% SF 11-7


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 28.98%

MLB Scoreboard

Friday, October 22, 2010

NLCS Game #6 Simulation



October 23rd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Phillies J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt Phillies 60.63% 56.07% SF 3-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 24.72%

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 21, 2010

ALCS Game #6 Simulation



October 22nd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Yankees Rangers P.Hughes vs C.Lewis Yankees 51.46% 42.68% TEX 6-1


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 18.36%

MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Giant Close-Out Game



October 21th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Giants R.Halladay vs T.Lincecum Giants 52.94% 48.25% PHI 4-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 23.31%

MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

League Championship Series Simulations



October 20th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Giants J.Blanton vs M.Bumgarner Giants 52.15% 55.93% SF 6-5
Rangers Yankees C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia Yankees 62.48% 57.45% NYA 7-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 25.29%

MLB Scoreboard

Monday, October 18, 2010

League Championship Series Simulations



October 19th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Giants C.Hamels vs M.Cain Phillies 52.15% 48.50% SF 3-0
Rangers Yankees T.Hunter vs A.Burnett Yankees 58.16% 66.80% TEX 10-3


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 35.66%

MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Rangers vs Yankees, ALCS Game #3 Simulation



October 18th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Yankees C.Lee vs A.Pettitte Rangers 51.46% 57.80% TEX 8-0


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 29.60%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Game #2, Giants vs Phillies



October 17th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Phillies J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt Phillies 60.24% 64.86% PHI 6-1


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 26.51%

MLB Scoreboard

Friday, October 15, 2010

League Championship Series Simulations



October 16th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Phillies T.Lincecum vs R.Halladay Phillies 61.17% 58.38% SF 4-3
Yankees Rangers P.Hughes vs C.Lewis Yankees 53.16% 45.73% TEX 7-2


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 14, 2010

ALCS Game #1, Yankees vs Rangers



October 15th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Yankees Rangers C.Sabathia vs C.Wilson Yankees 58.07% 48.62% NYA 6-5


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

NLCS Preview, Tim Lincecum



Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..




The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?

To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.

Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.

Date Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Giants Win Prob Actual
4/11 Braves Giants K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum 65.87% Win
4/17 Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger 60.78% Win
4/23 Cardinals Giants J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum 61.98% Win
4/28 Phillies Giants C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum 61.83% Loss
5/4 Giants Marlins T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez 62.83% Win
5/9 Giants Mets T.Lincecum vs O.Perez 64.79% Win
5/19 Astros Giants R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum 68.15% Win
5/20 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez 62.69% Loss
5/26 Nationals Giants L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum 72.97% Loss
5/31 Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum 50.50% Loss
6/6 Giants Pirates T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf 65.64% Win
7/2 Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin 54.95% Loss
7/7 Giants Brewers T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson 56.52% Win
7/15 Mets Giants R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum 63.24% Win
7/20 Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw 46.30% Win
7/25 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs B.Enright 57.98% Win
7/30 Dodgers Giants C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum 63.90% Win
8/5 Giants Braves T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens 51.22% Loss
8/10 Cubs Giants R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum 63.64% Loss
8/15 Padres Giants W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum 63.90% Loss
8/21 Giants Cardinals T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter 39.37% Loss
8/27 DBacks Giants B.Enright vs T.Lincecum 64.16% Loss
9/1 Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum 46.51% Win
9/7 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs B.Enright 54.13% Win
9/12 Giants Padres T.Lincecum vs M.Latos 42.74% Win
9/18 Brewers Giants Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum 58.51% Loss
9/24 Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin 45.25% Win
9/29 DBacks Giants I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum 66.10% Win


The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Division Series, October 12th Games



October 12th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Rays C.Lee vs D.Price Rays 52.72% 49.45% TEX 5-1


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Division Series, October 11th Games



October 11th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Braves M.Bumgarner vs D.Lowe Braves 58.16% 53.53% SF 3-2


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, October 09, 2010

Division Series, October 10th Games



October 10th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Braves J.Sanchez vs T.Hudson Braves 56.52% 54.48% SF 3-2
Phillies Reds C.Hamels vs J.Cueto Phillies 55.46% 55.64% PHI 2-0
Rays Rangers W.Davis vs T.Hunter Rangers 53.60% 50.08% TB 5-2


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 9th Games



October 9th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rays Rangers M.Garza vs C.Lewis Rangers 55.46% 60.45% TB 6-3
Twins Yankees B.Duensing vs P.Hughes Yankees 61.90% 64.66% NYA 6-1


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Division Series, October 8th Games



October 8th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Giants T.Hanson vs M.Cain Giants 58.16% 54.83% ATL 5-4
Reds Phillies B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt Phillies 65.22% 68.52% PHI 7-4


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Division Series, October 7th Games



October 7th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Giants D.Lowe vs T.Lincecum Giants 59.84% 62.27% SF 1-0
Rangers Rays C.Wilson vs J.Shields Rays 53.38% 48.86% TEX 6-0
Yankees Twins A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano Yankees 52.72% 52.57% NYA 5-2


Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Monday, October 04, 2010

Division Series, October 6th Games



October 6th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Reds Phillies E.Volquez vs R.Halladay Phillies 66.10% 68.64% PHI 4-0
Rangers Rays C.Lee vs D.Price Rays 55.06% 50.32% TEX 5-1
Yankees Twins C.Sabathia vs F.Liriano Yankees 56.80% 44.75% NYA 6-4


Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

2010 Simulation Results


The 2010 regular baseball season is over and below are the statistics of how the simulator did for the 2010 season. Method of measurement is Return On Investment (ROI), which is calculated by taking the total amount won betting, divided by the total amount of money bet.

Measurement ROI
Overall 3.42%
April 8.95%
May -1.37%
June 1.20%
July 5.52%
August 1.28%
Sep/Oct 5.66%
National League 4.98%
American League 1.53%
Interleague 5.03%
Favorites -4.00%
Underdogs 8.04%
Visitors -0.75%
Home 6.06%
Home Underdogs 15.55%
Home Favorites 0.19%


To put this in perspective, let's say that you average bet was $10 on each game, (this is a simplified example) - but just to get an idea on what you'd make, it would be around $730 and $7300 on average bet sizes of $100. From the table above, the simulator cleaned up on "home underdogs".

Saturday, October 02, 2010

Season Finale



October 3rd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers R.Lopez vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.90% 66.55% LAN 3-1
Padres Giants M.Latos vs J.Sanchez Giants TBD 52.46% SF 3-0
Phillies Braves C.Hamels vs T.Hudson Phillies TBD 55.41% ATL 8-7


Current ROI: 3.54%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 10/3 10/2 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23
1 Giants 62.91% 90.04% 94.99% 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43%
2 Padres 37.09% 9.96% 5.01% 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 48.41% 83.97% 95.49% 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%        
2 Padres 19.80% 11.04% 3.11% 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%        
3 Giants 31.78% 5.00% 1.40% 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%        


MLB Scoreboard

Friday, October 01, 2010

Operation Protect Draft Pick



October 2nd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers J.Saunders vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 61.09% 70.61% LAN 3-2
Padres Giants T.Stauffer vs B.Zito Giants 60.00% 59.96% SD 4-2
Phillies Braves V.Worley vs T.Hanson Braves 62.41% 62.34% PHI 7-0


Current ROI: 2.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 10/2 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22
1 Giants 90.04% 94.99% 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75%
2 Padres 9.96% 5.01% 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 83.97% 95.49% 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%          
2 Padres 11.04% 3.11% 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%          
3 Giants 5.00% 1.40% 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%          


MLB Scoreboard