Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..
The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?
To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.
Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.
|Date||Visitors||Home||Probable Pitching Matchup||Giants Win Prob||Actual|
|4/11||Braves||Giants||K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum||65.87%||Win|
|4/17||Giants||Dodgers||T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger||60.78%||Win|
|4/23||Cardinals||Giants||J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum||61.98%||Win|
|4/28||Phillies||Giants||C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum||61.83%||Loss|
|5/4||Giants||Marlins||T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez||62.83%||Win|
|5/9||Giants||Mets||T.Lincecum vs O.Perez||64.79%||Win|
|5/19||Astros||Giants||R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum||68.15%||Win|
|5/20||Giants||DBacks||T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez||62.69%||Loss|
|5/26||Nationals||Giants||L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum||72.97%||Loss|
|5/31||Rockies||Giants||U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum||50.50%||Loss|
|6/6||Giants||Pirates||T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf||65.64%||Win|
|7/2||Giants||Rockies||T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin||54.95%||Loss|
|7/7||Giants||Brewers||T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson||56.52%||Win|
|7/15||Mets||Giants||R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum||63.24%||Win|
|7/20||Giants||Dodgers||T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw||46.30%||Win|
|7/25||Giants||DBacks||T.Lincecum vs B.Enright||57.98%||Win|
|7/30||Dodgers||Giants||C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum||63.90%||Win|
|8/5||Giants||Braves||T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens||51.22%||Loss|
|8/10||Cubs||Giants||R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum||63.64%||Loss|
|8/15||Padres||Giants||W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum||63.90%||Loss|
|8/21||Giants||Cardinals||T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter||39.37%||Loss|
|8/27||DBacks||Giants||B.Enright vs T.Lincecum||64.16%||Loss|
|9/1||Rockies||Giants||U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum||46.51%||Win|
|9/7||Giants||DBacks||T.Lincecum vs B.Enright||54.13%||Win|
|9/12||Giants||Padres||T.Lincecum vs M.Latos||42.74%||Win|
|9/18||Brewers||Giants||Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum||58.51%||Loss|
|9/24||Giants||Rockies||T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin||45.25%||Win|
|9/29||DBacks||Giants||I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum||66.10%||Win|
The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.