Tuesday, October 12, 2010

NLCS Preview, Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..

The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?

To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.

Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.

Date Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Giants Win Prob Actual
4/11 Braves Giants K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum 65.87% Win
4/17 Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger 60.78% Win
4/23 Cardinals Giants J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum 61.98% Win
4/28 Phillies Giants C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum 61.83% Loss
5/4 Giants Marlins T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez 62.83% Win
5/9 Giants Mets T.Lincecum vs O.Perez 64.79% Win
5/19 Astros Giants R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum 68.15% Win
5/20 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez 62.69% Loss
5/26 Nationals Giants L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum 72.97% Loss
5/31 Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum 50.50% Loss
6/6 Giants Pirates T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf 65.64% Win
7/2 Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin 54.95% Loss
7/7 Giants Brewers T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson 56.52% Win
7/15 Mets Giants R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum 63.24% Win
7/20 Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw 46.30% Win
7/25 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs B.Enright 57.98% Win
7/30 Dodgers Giants C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum 63.90% Win
8/5 Giants Braves T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens 51.22% Loss
8/10 Cubs Giants R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum 63.64% Loss
8/15 Padres Giants W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum 63.90% Loss
8/21 Giants Cardinals T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter 39.37% Loss
8/27 DBacks Giants B.Enright vs T.Lincecum 64.16% Loss
9/1 Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum 46.51% Win
9/7 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs B.Enright 54.13% Win
9/12 Giants Padres T.Lincecum vs M.Latos 42.74% Win
9/18 Brewers Giants Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum 58.51% Loss
9/24 Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin 45.25% Win
9/29 DBacks Giants I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum 66.10% Win

The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.

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