Tuesday, August 31, 2010

NL West Title Well Within Reach... Just Not For Dodgers



September 1st, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers R.Oswalt vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 51.22% 52.94% PHI 5-1


Current ROI: 2.79%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22
1 Padres 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60%
2 Giants 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63%
3 Rockies 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27%
4 Dodgers 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50%


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Monday, August 30, 2010

Masterful Kuroda Quells Phillies Bats



August 31st, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers K.Kendrick vs C.Monasterios Dodgers 51.69% 47.03% PHI 8-4


Current ROI: 2.29%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21
1 Padres 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62%
2 Giants 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77%
3 Rockies 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32%
4 Dodgers 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30%


MLB Scoreboard
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Sunday, August 29, 2010

Manny Leaves, Dodgers Get A Halladay



August 30th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers R.Halladay vs H.Kuroda Phillies 57.63% 53.39% LAN 3-0
Pirates Cubs P.Maholm vs C.Zambrano Cubs 61.83% 68.06% CHN 14-2
Padres DBacks W.LeBlanc vs J.Saunders Padres 56.52% 48.72% ARI 7-2
Blue Jays Rays B.Cecil vs W.Davis Rays 58.16% 47.90% TB 6-2


Current ROI: 2.43%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20
1 Padres 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81%
2 Giants 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26%
3 Rockies 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46%
4 Dodgers 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46%


MLB Scoreboard
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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Dodgers Approaching Their 2010 Waterloo



August 29th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Rockies T.Lilly vs J.Hammel Rockies 53.05% 62.42% COL 10-5
Astros Mets B.Norris vs R.Dickey Mets 63.24% 57.45% NYN 5-1
Cardinals Nationals A.Wainwright vs J.Lannan Cardinals 65.28% 56.41% WAS 4-2
Red Sox Rays J.Lackey vs J.Shields Rays 58.68% 49.89% TB 5-3
Yankees White Sox I.Nova vs G.Floyd White Sox 55.16% 60.51% NYA 2-1


Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19
1 Padres 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11%
2 Giants 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59%
3 Rockies 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85%
4 Dodgers 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45%


MLB Scoreboard
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Friday, August 27, 2010

Saturday Night Fever!



August 28th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Rockies C.Billingsley vs J.Chacin Rockies 54.95% 57.40% COL 5-3
Cardinals Nationsls K.Lohse vs L.Hernandez Cardinals 50.98% 40.81% WAS 14-5
Cubs Reds R.Wells vs B.Arroyo Reds 62.29% 50.52% CHN 3-2
Marlins Braves R.Nolasco vs T.Hudson Braves 63.50% 56.50% ATL 12-3
A's Rangers D.Braden vs R.Harden Rangers 58.16% 47.20% OAK 5-0
Twins Mariners N.Blackburn vs D.Fister Twins 51.22% 44.04% MIN 1-0


Current ROI: 1.69%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18
1 Padres 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54%
2 Giants 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89%
3 Dodgers 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86%
4 Rockies 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Thursday, August 26, 2010

Stayin' Alive



August 27th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Rockies C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez Rockies 59.51% 55.69% LAN 6-2


Current ROI: 2.40%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17
1 Padres 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20%
2 Giants 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39%
3 Rockies 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37%
4 Dodgers 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Three Headed Save



August 26th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Brewers C.Monasterios vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 60.63% 68.82% LAN 7-1


Current ROI: 2.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16
1 Padres 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49%
2 Giants 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55%
3 Rockies 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69%
4 Dodgers 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Little By Lilly, Dodgers Discover A New Ace



August 25th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Brewers H.Kuroda vs R.Wolf Brewers 52.61% 47.45% LAN 5-4


Current ROI: 1.55%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/25 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15
1 Padres 84.63% 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05%
2 Giants 14.74% 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49%
3 Rockies 0.40% 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32%
4 Dodgers 0.23% 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Waive Good-Bye To Manny?



August 24th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Brewers T.Lilly vs D.Bush Dodgers 56.14% 49.95% LAN 5-3


Current ROI: 1.37%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/24 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14
1 Padres 84.30% 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64%
2 Giants 15.05% 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45%
3 Rockies 0.39% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77%
4 Dodgers 0.26% 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Sunday, August 22, 2010

Off Day, Off Season



August 23rd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Nationals C.Coleman vs L.Hernandez Nationals 63.24% 65.21% CHN 10
Cardinals Pirates K.Lohse vs R.Ohlendorf Cardinals 54.55% 50.82% STL 12
Astros Phillies B.Myers vs J.Blanton Phillies 62.12% 62.21% HOU 5
Braves Rockies T.Hudson vs J.Hammel Braves 53.92% 40.06% COL 9
Reds Giants E.Volquez vs M.Cain Giants 56.71% 64.80% SF 13


Current ROI: 1.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/23 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13
1 Padres 86.29% 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10%
2 Giants 13.12% 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17%
3 Rockies 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48%
4 Dodgers 0.24% 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Saturday, August 21, 2010

Dodgers Hit Manny Homeruns



August 22nd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Reds Dodgers B.Arroyo vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 57.45% 64.89% CIN 5-2


Current ROI: 2.19%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/22 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12
1 Padres 81.60% 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65%
2 Giants 17.63% 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50%
3 Dodgers 0.50% 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41%
4 Rockies 0.27% 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Friday, August 20, 2010

Homer Does Dodgers In



August 21st, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Reds Dodgers J.Cueto vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 54.13% 60.06% LAN 8-5


Current ROI: 1.98%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/21 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11
1 Padres 81.62% 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39%
2 Giants 17.77% 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67%
3 Rockies 0.32% 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16%
4 Dodgers 0.30% 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Thursday, August 19, 2010

Ace Of Lilly



August 20th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Reds Dodgers H.Bailey vs C.Monasterios Dodgers 53.27% 48.68% CIN 3-1


Current ROI: 1.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/20 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10
1 Padres 85.81% 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41%
2 Giants 13.26% 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04%
3 Rockies 0.46% 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83%
4 Dodgers 0.46% 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Wild Pitches Dooms Dodgers



August 19th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.de la Rosa vs T.Lilly Dodgers 58.33% 51.41% LAN 2-0


Current ROI: 1.38%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/19 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9
1 Padres 85.11% 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11%
2 Giants 13.59% 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03%
3 Rockies 0.85% 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23%
4 Dodgers 0.45% 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Thank God For The Rockies



August 18th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.Hammel vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 56.90% 53.40% COL 3-2


Current ROI: 1.49%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/18 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8
1 Padres 79.54% 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95%
2 Giants 18.89% 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97%
3 Dodgers 0.86% 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31%
4 Rockies 0.72% 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

MLB Scoreboard
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Monday, August 16, 2010

Bullpen Warfare



August 17th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.Chacin vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 62.26% 59.95% LAN 6-0
Marlins Pirates R.Nolasco vs Z.Duke Marlins 57.45% 56.21% FLA 6-0
Giants Phillies B.Zito vs R.Oswalt Phillies 59.68% 59.89% PHI 9-3
Nationals Braves S.Olsen vs M.Minor Braves 63.24% 52.10% ATL 10-2
Mets Astros J.Santana vs N.Figueroa Mets 61.39% 59.86% HOU 4-3
Padres Cubs J.Garland vs R.Wells Padres 52.61% 42.81% SD 1-0
Brewers Cardinals D.Bush vs J.Garcia Cardinals 64.29% 65.18% MIL 3-2
Reds DBacks B.Arroyo vs D.Hudson Reds 52.15% 45.70% CIN 6-2
Mariners Orioles L.French vs K.Millwood Orioles 54.95% 53.35% SEA 4-0
Tigers Yankees J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia Yankees 63.24% 61.31% NYA 6-2
Rangers Rays T.Hunter vs M.Garza Rays 58.68% 58.30% TB 10-1
Angels Red Sox J.Weaver vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 56.52% 52.14% BOS 6-0
White Sox Twins J.Danks vs S.Baker Twins 53.70% 51.56% MIN 7-6
Indians Royals J.Gomez vs Z.Greinke Royals 63.24% 66.80% KC 2-1
Blue Jays A's B.Morrow vs D.Braden A's 52.15% 47.83% TOR 6-2


Current ROI: 1.92%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/17 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7
1 Padres 72.20% 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35%
2 Giants 24.39% 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19%
3 Dodgers 2.04% 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25%
4 Rockies 1.37% 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21%


MLB Scoreboard
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Win Some, Lose More



August 16th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Braves C.Billingsley vs T.Hanson Braves 59.18% 56.29% ATL 4-3


Current ROI: 2.25%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/16 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6
1 Padres 67.49% 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32%
2 Giants 27.55% 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09%
3 Dodgers 3.27% 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00%
4 Rockies 1.69% 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59%


MLB Scoreboard
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Saturday, August 14, 2010

Lowe And Behold, Dodgers Win



August 15th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Braves V.Padilla vs J.Jurrjens Braves 56.71% 53.77% ATL 13-1


Current ROI: 2.21%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/15 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5
1 Padres 58.05% 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39%
2 Giants 36.49% 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90%
3 Dodgers 4.13% 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48%
4 Rockies 1.32% 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22%


MLB Scoreboard
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Friday, August 13, 2010

Dodgers Offense Grounded



August 14th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Braves T.Lilly vs D.Lowe Braves 55.95% 54.01% LAN 2-1


Current ROI: 2.73%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/14 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4
1 Padres 65.64% 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82%
2 Giants 29.45% 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33%
3 Dodgers 3.14% 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41%
4 Rockies 1.77% 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44%


MLB Scoreboard
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Blown Save, Set & Match



August 13th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Braves H.Kuroda vs T.Hudson Braves 60.78% 50.35% ATL 1-0


Current ROI: 2.72%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/13 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3
1 Padres 57.10% 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91%
2 Giants 37.17% 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63%
3 Dodgers 4.25% 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33%
4 Rockies 1.48% 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13%


MLB Scoreboard
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Torre Loses Lucky Rabbits Foot



August 12th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies C.Kershaw vs J.Blanton Dodgers 54.95% 50.95% PHI 10-9


Current ROI: 3.24%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/12 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2
1 Padres 55.65% 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30%
2 Giants 35.50% 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17%
3 Dodgers 6.41% 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98%
4 Rockies 2.43% 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55%


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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Gibbons Helps Dodgers Gain Ground



August 11th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies C.Billingsley vs R.Oswalt Phillies 56.90% 57.77% PHI 2-0


Current ROI: 3.24%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/11 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1
1 Padres 54.39% 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00%
2 Giants 33.67% 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84%
3 Dodgers 9.78% 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80%
4 Rockies 2.16% 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35%


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Monday, August 09, 2010

Padilla Shoots To Keep Dodgers Hopes Alive



August 10th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies V.Padilla vs K.Kendrick Phillies 50.74% 50.73% LAN 15-9


Current ROI: 3.55%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/10 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31
1 Padres 48.41% 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89%
2 Giants 41.04% 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21%
3 Dodgers 7.72% 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26%
4 Rockies 2.83% 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64%


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Sunday, August 08, 2010

NL West Playoff Picture


Using my baseball simulator to play out the rest of the 2010 schedules for the Padres, Giants, Dodgers and Rockies, here are the odds of each team winning the NL West title.

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/9 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30
1 Padres 51.11% 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38%
2 Giants 37.03% 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98%
3 Dodgers 8.63% 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69%
4 Rockies 3.23% 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95%


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Saturday, August 07, 2010

Loney Is Money



August 8th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Nationals Dodgers J.Marquis vs T.Lilly Dodgers 64.79% 54.63% LAN 8-3
Cardinals Marlins J.Suppan vs S.West Cardinals 51.92% 49.51% TBD
Reds Cubs T.Wood vs T.Diamond Reds 57.08% 53.01% CIN 11-4
Astros Brewers W.Wright vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 67.53% 73.88% MIL 11-6
Mets Phillies R.Dickey vs R.Halladay Phillies 67.85% 59.30% PHI 6-5
Giants Braves J.Sandhez vs D.Lowe Braves 56.52% 53.90% ATL 6-3
Royals Mariners K.Davies vs J.Vargas Mariners 57.63% 60.79% SEA 3-2
Angels Tigers T.Bell vs R.Porcello Tigers 57.45% 55.53% DET 9-4
Twins Indians B.Duensing vs D.Huff Twins 60.32% 50.46% MIN 5-4
Rangers A's C.Lewis vs T.Cahill A's 54.13% 49.95% OAK 3-2
Rockies Pirates E.Rogers vs P.Maholm Pirates 50.50% 52.38% COL 8-4
Padres DBacks M.Latos vs J.Saunders Padres 59.18% 56.68% SD 10-1
Rays Blue Jays A.Sonnanstine vs B.Morrow Blue Jays 55.75% 65.42% TOR 1-0


Current ROI: 3.78%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/8 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29
1 Padres 45.95% 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70%
2 Giants 43.97% 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89%
3 Dodgers 7.31% 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76%
4 Rockies 2.78% 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65%


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Friday, August 06, 2010

Dunn In By The Long Ball



August 7th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Nationals Dodgers L.Hernandez vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 63.10% 57.66% LAN 3-2


Current ROI: 4.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/7 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28
1 Padres 47.35% 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71%
2 Giants 44.19% 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28%
3 Dodgers 5.25% 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39%
4 Rockies 3.21% 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62%


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Thursday, August 05, 2010

Two Steps Forward, One Step Back



August 6th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Nationals Dodgers J.Lannan vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 68.55% 68.83% WAS 6-3


Current ROI: 4.47%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/6 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27
1 Padres 53.32% 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82%
2 Giants 37.09% 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34%
3 Dodgers 7.00% 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18%
4 Rockies 2.59% 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66%


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Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Padilla Completely Shuts Down Padres



August 5th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers K.Correia vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 59.84% 62.84% SD 5-0


Current ROI: 4.34%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/5 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26
1 Padres 44.39% 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34%
2 Giants 42.90% 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79%
3 Dodgers 9.48% 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73%
4 Rockies 3.22% 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14%


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Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Lilly Brightly Blossoms



August 4th, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers W.LeBlanc vs V.Padilla Dodgers 58.33% 59.06% LAN 9-0


Current ROI: 3.89%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/4 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25
1 Padres 45.82% 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16%
2 Giants 44.33% 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29%
3 Dodgers 7.41% 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65%
4 Rockies 2.44% 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90%


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The Worst Of Times



August 3rd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers M.Latos vs T.Lilly Dodgers 51.22% 50.42% LAN 2-1


Current ROI: 2.94%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/3 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24
1 Padres 51.91% 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01%
2 Giants 38.63% 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05%
3 Dodgers 6.33% 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72%
4 Rockies 3.13% 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22%


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Sunday, August 01, 2010

That's Nearly All She Wrote



August 2nd, Simulations...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers C.Richard vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 57.08% 57.65% SD 10-5
Reds Pirates T.Wood vs R.Ohlendorf Reds 61.39% 53.65% CIN 4-0
Brewers Cubs Y.Gallardo vs R.Wells Brewers 51.22% 49.10% MIL 18-1
Nationals DBacks L.Hernandez vs R.Lopez DBacks 53.49% 41.44% WAS 3-1
Mets Braves J.Santana vs T.Hudson Braves 57.98% 52.16% ATL 4-1
Astros Cardinals B.Myers vs J.Garcia Cardinals 59.84% 63.05% HOU 9-4
Royals A's B.Bannister vs T.Cahill A's 65.52% 63.75% OAK 6-0
Twins Rays C.Pavano vs M.Hellickson Rays 52.15% 48.59% TB 4-2
Blue Jays Yankees B.Morrow vs A.Burnett Yankees 63.64% 57.88% TOR 8-6
Indians Red Sox F.Carmona vs J.Lackey Red Sox 65.16% 61.76% CLE 6-5


Current ROI: 2.81%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 8/2 8/1 7/31 7/30 7/29 7/28 7/27 7/26 7/25 7/24 7/23
1 Padres 46.30% 45.00% 49.89% 54.38% 47.70% 43.71% 49.82% 47.34% 46.16% 45.01% 41.42%
2 Giants 41.17% 38.84% 32.21% 26.98% 31.89% 29.28% 25.34% 28.79% 28.29% 27.05% 23.63%
3 Dodgers 8.98% 12.80% 15.26% 16.69% 18.76% 24.39% 21.18% 19.73% 19.65% 19.72% 24.69%
4 Rockies 3.55% 3.35% 2.64% 1.95% 1.65% 2.62% 3.66% 4.14% 5.90% 8.22% 10.26%


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