Saturday, May 16, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts 5/16


Taking a break from posting but you can find me at @Dodgersims on twitter to read my takes.



Saturday 5/16 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Zack Greinke67.74%2.83TBD
2Felix Hernandez62.26%2.95TBD
3Max Scherzer55.95%3.17TBD
4Jesse Chavez60.32%3.48TBD
5Jake deGrom57.45%3.47TBD
6Mike Leake59.02%3.67TBD
7Mat Latos53.70%3.69TBD
8Andrew Cashner44.05%3.57TBD
9Danny Salazar55.95%4.29TBD
10David Price50.98%4.06TBD
11Alex Colome51.92%4.10TBD
11Danny Duffy51.22%4.13TBD
13Ubaldo Jimenez55.16%4.33TBD
14Alex Wood46.30%3.97TBD
15Gerrit Cole50.74%4.15TBD
16Tyler Lyons49.02%4.14TBD
17Archie Bradley50.50%4.26TBD
18Rick Porcello37.74%3.79TBD
19Jon Lester49.26%4.21TBD
20Scott Feldman53.49%4.45TBD
21C.C. Sabathia48.78%4.23TBD
21Trevor May48.08%4.26TBD
23Jerome Williams49.50%4.30TBD
24Matt Garza42.55%4.03TBD
25John Danks39.68%4.30TBD
26Ryan Vogelsong40.98%4.41TBD
27Marco Estrada46.51%4.77TBD
28Jorge de la Rosa32.26%4.11TBD
29Matt Shoemaker44.84%4.80TBD
30Colby Lewis44.05%4.83TBD
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Thursday, May 14, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/15

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Friday 5/15/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Clayton Kershaw74.03%2.64TBD
2Bartolo Colon58.59%3.47TBD
3Madison Bumgarner58.76%3.64TBD
4Jordan Zimmerman53.16%3.50TBD
5David Phelps56.43%3.74TBD
5Dallas Keuchel58.42%3.81TBD
7Michael Pineda53.60%3.60TBD
7Jesse Hahn53.60%3.67TBD
9Carlos Martinez56.80%3.85TBD
10J.A. Happ50.86%3.82TBD
11Kyle Hendricks52.72%3.94TBD
12Chase Anderson54.44%4.03TBD
13Clay Buchholz49.14%3.88TBD
14Odrisame Despaigne46.84%3.72TBD
15Phil Hughes50.62%3.95TBD
16Jake Odorizzi49.38%4.00TBD
17Chris Young46.40%3.87TBD
18Carlos Rodon46.40%3.94TBD
19Wei-Yin Chen54.65%4.35TBD
20Wandy Rodriguez54.02%4.42TBD
21Jeff Locke47.28%4.16TBD
22Kyle Lohse41.41%4.12TBD
23Julio Teheran43.57%4.25TBD
24Chad Billingsley45.56%4.41TBD
25Jason Marquis41.24%4.35TBD
26Shane Greene43.20%4.41TBD
27R.A. Dickey41.58%4.52TBD
28Bruce Chen45.98%4.79TBD
28Jered Weaver45.35%4.77TBD
30Eddie Butler25.97%4.46TBD
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Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/14

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Top Fantasy baseball starting pitchers for Thursday 5/14

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Brett Anderson65.81%3.46TBD
2Johnny Cueto61.46%3.31TBD
3Tyson Ross53.16%3.59TBD
4Anibal Sanchez61.83%3.90TBD
5Roenis Elias54.44%3.72TBD
5Travis Wood54.85%3.70TBD
7Vance Worley54.02%3.88TBD
8Doug Fister46.84%3.59TBD
9Michael Wacha51.34%3.82TBD
10Chase Whitley51.81%4.04TBD
11Trevor Bauer48.66%3.92TBD
12Erasmo Ramirez48.19%4.19TBD
13Joe Kelly45.56%4.06TBD
13Jonathon Niese45.15%4.08TBD
15Aaron Harang45.98%4.20TBD
16Jeremy Guthrie53.16%4.68TBD
17Roberto Hernandez50.37%4.55TBD
18Drew Hutchison49.63%4.58TBD
19Tim Lincecum38.54%4.18TBD
20Ross Detwiler46.84%4.99TBD
21Mike Pelfrey38.17%4.97TBD
22Chad Bettis34.19%4.80TBD

Note:  These rankings take into account how many runs the opposing team is expected to score and what are the chances that the starting pitcher will get a "win".

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/13

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Wednesday 5/13/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Sonny Gray58.07%3.53TBD
2Hector Santiago60.40%3.67TBD
3Carlos Frias58.93%3.63TBD
4Francisco Liriano53.60%3.43TBD
5Matt Harvey52.94%3.64TBD
6Corey Kluber55.26%3.83TBD
7Raisel Iglesias57.36%4.02TBD
8Cole Hamels46.40%3.69TBD
9Taijuan Walker50.37%3.83TBD
10James Shields49.63%3.86TBD
11Jason Hammel47.06%3.86TBD
12Gio Gonzalez56.99%4.27TBD
13Kyle Lobstein57.17%4.38TBD
14Nathan Karns50.37%4.05TBD
15Yordano Ventura54.85%4.22TBD
16Adam Warren49.63%4.08TBD
17Miguel Gonzalez52.94%4.27TBD
18Jimmy Nelson51.10%4.21TBD
19Brad Oberholtzer52.27%4.38TBD
20Jose Quintana48.90%4.30TBD
21John Lackey44.74%4.26TBD
22Wade Miley41.93%4.15TBD
23Tim Hudson47.73%4.58TBD
23Aaron Sanchez47.06%4.53TBD
25Jarred Cosart41.07%4.35TBD
26Yovani Gallardo45.15%4.65TBD
27Eric Stults42.64%4.67TBD
28Jordan Lyles39.60%4.53TBD
29Jeremy Hellickson43.01%4.91TBD
30Ricky Nolasco42.83%5.06TBD
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Monday, May 11, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/12

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Tuesday 5/12/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.  

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1C.J. Wilson63.57%3.56TBD
2A.J. Burnett59.43%3.77TBD
3Anthony DeSclafani58.25%3.80TBD
4Jake Arrieta57.36%3.70TBD
5Michael Bolsinger56.62%3.73TBD
6James Paxton55.26%3.78TBD
7Chris Archer52.94%3.68TBD
8Collin McHugh57.36%3.96TBD
9Stephen Strasburg58.07%4.02TBD
10Alfredo Simon57.54%4.04TBD
11Chris Sale53.60%3.91TBD
12Edinson Volquez54.23%4.09TBD
13Carlos Carrasco52.04%4.05TBD
14Drew Pomeranz50.62%4.06TBD
15Nathan Eovaldi47.06%3.90TBD
16Chris Tillman54.65%4.32TBD
17Justin Masterson49.38%4.11TBD
18Lance Lynn47.96%4.22TBD
19Mike Fiers46.40%4.20TBD
20Ian Kennedy44.74%4.20TBD
21Dan Haren43.38%4.26TBD
22Noah Syndergaard42.64%4.30TBD
23Nick Martinez45.77%4.45TBD
24Michael Foltynewicz41.75%4.49TBD
25Chris Heston42.64%4.60TBD
26Mark Buehrle45.35%4.74TBD
27Sean O'Sullivan40.57%4.56TBD
28Kyle Gibson42.46%4.70TBD
29Rubby De La Rosa41.93%4.73TBD
30Kyle Hendricks36.43%4.70TBD
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Sunday, May 10, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/11

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  Monday 5/11/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.  

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Zack Greinke67.21%3.04TBD
2Gerrit Cole62.19%3.41TBD
3Jon Lester58.42%3.52TBD
4Scott Kazmir55.65%3.67TBD
5Mike Leake57.54%3.74TBD
6Alex Colome53.38%3.66TBD
7Max Scherzer56.14%3.85TBD
8Danny Duffy53.60%4.16TBD
9Ubaldo Jimenez53.60%4.27TBD
10C.C. Sabathia46.62%3.92TBD
11Wily Peralta50.12%4.18TBD
12Jeff Samardzija49.88%4.19TBD
13Odrisamer Despaigne44.35%4.11TBD
14Jake deGrom41.58%4.18TBD
15Colby Lewis46.40%4.47TBD
16Josh Collmenter43.86%4.35TBD
17Shelby Miller42.46%4.35TBD
18Marco Estrada46.40%4.59TBD
19Jerome Williams37.81%4.37TBD
20Tom Koehler32.79%4.36TBD
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Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/10

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Sunday 5/10/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.  Starters were not named for SD/ARI game when this post was published thus they are left out of the table (Update: Cashner (SD) would slot at #15 and Hudson (ARI) at #21 with those below them moving down).

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Felix Hernandez62.34%3.14TBD
2Clayton Kershaw64.03%3.58TBD
3Jordan Zimmerman61.83%3.42TBD
4Jake Odorizzi60.63%3.42TBD
5Garrett Richards59.10%3.72TBD
6Bartolo Colon58.59%3.77TBD
7Michael Pineda60.71%3.82TBD
8Danny Salazar60.55%3.91TBD
9Shane Greene56.90%3.94TBD
10Ryan Vogelsong52.04%3.96TBD
11Jeff Locke51.10%4.00TBD
12Tyler Lyons48.90%4.09TBD
13Mat Latos47.96%4.13TBD
14R.A. Dickey53.81%4.43TBD
15Kyle Hendricks50.62%4.45TBD
16Matt Garza49.38%4.51TBD
17Jesse Chavez37.66%4.04TBD
18John Danks51.81%4.76TBD
19Wandy Rodriguez39.37%4.24TBD
20Chad Billingsley41.41%4.49TBD
21Chris Young43.10%4.53TBD
22Alex Wood38.17%4.36TBD
23Scott Feldman40.90%4.47TBD
24Clay Buchholz46.19%4.78TBD
25Odrisamer Despaigne48.19%4.94TBD
26Bud Norris39.29%4.74TBD
27Trevor May39.45%4.84TBD
28Jorge de la Rosa35.97%4.78TBD
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Saturday, May 09, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/9

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Saturday 5/9/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherTeam Win ChanceOpp Expected RSResult
1Madison Bumgarner61.46%3.02TBD
2Doug Fister59.27%3.51TBD
3Clayton Kershaw61.46%3.82TBD
4Johnny Cueto57.45%3.74TBD
5J.A. Happ52.04%3.78TBD
6Matt Andriese56.33%3.92TBD
7Anibal Sanchez59.76%4.11Loss, 6ip 5er 9h 2k 3bb
8Jonathon Niese52.27%3.86TBD
9Dallas Keuchel50.62%3.81TBD
10Matt Shoemaker49.38%3.86TBD
11Carlos Martinez50.12%3.99TBD
12Vance Worley49.88%4.00TBD
13Chase Whitley53.38%4.18Loss, 5.2ip 5er 6h 5k 2bb
14Jesse Hahn47.96%3.94TBD
15Aaron Harang47.73%4.04TBD
16Tyson Ross50.62%4.30TBD
17Odrisamer Despaigne51.10%4.33TBD
18Drew Hutchison53.60%4.49TBD
19David Phelps38.54%3.82TBD
20Chase Anderson49.38%4.35TBD
21Kyle Lohse48.90%4.42TBD
22Bruce Chen50.86%4.58TBD
23Wei-Yin Chen46.62%4.47Win, 7ip 1er 5h 7k 1bb
24Phil Hughes49.14%4.66TBD
25Julio Teheran40.73%4.23TBD
26Hector Noesi42.55%4.34TBD
27Ross Detwiler43.67%4.45TBD
28Joe Kelly46.40%4.83TBD
29Jorge de la Rosa38.54%4.82TBD
30Jeremy Guthrie40.24%5.01Win, 7.1ip 2er 8h 3k 1bb


Notes:
- Missed second game of White Sox/Reds doubleheader
- Rankings take into account run environment and chance of pitcher getting a win.
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Thursday, May 07, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/8

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Friday 5/8/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Gio GonzalezTBD
2Matt HarveyTBD
3David PriceTBD
4Francisco LirianoTBD
5Tim LincecumTBD
6Sonny GrayTBD
7Jered WeaverTBD
8Trevor BauerTBD
9Cole HamelsTBD
10Michael WachaTBD
11Adam WarrenTBD
12Taijuan WalkerTBD
13Nathan KarnsTBD
14Jimmy NelsonTBD
15Jarred CosartTBD
16Odrisamer DespaigneTBD
17James ShieldsTBD
18Alex SanchezTBD
19Yovani GallardoTBD
20Jeremy HellicksonTBD
21Hector NoesiTBD
22Brett AndersonTBD
23Yordano VenturaTBD
24Miguel GonzalezTBD
25Jason MarquisTBD
26Roberto HernandezTBD
27Mike PelfreyTBD
28Eric StultsTBD
29Wade MileyTBD
30Eddie ButlerTBD
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Wednesday, May 06, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/7

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Thursday 5/7/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Chris ArcherTBD
2A.J. BurnettTBD
3Tim HudsonTBD
4John LackeyTBD
5Nathan EovaldiTBD
6Corey KluberTBD
7Jose QuintanaTBD
8Hector SantiagoTBD
9Collin McHughTBD
10Dan HarenTBD
11Edinson VolquezTBD
12Mike FiersTBD
13Jake ArrietaTBD
14Drew PomeranzTBD
15Ricky NolascoTBD
15Carlos FriasTBD
17Anthony DeSlafaniTBD
18Rubby De La RosaTBD
19Nick MartinezTBD
20Odrisamer DespaigneTBD
21Kyle LobsteinTBD
22Chris TillmanTBD
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Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/6

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Wednesday 5/6/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Max ScherzerWIN, 7ip, 10h, 5er, 10k, 0bb
2Gerrit ColeTBD
3Chris SaleTBD
4Lance LynnTBD
5Chris HestonLoss, 5ip, 11h, 5er, 4k, 3bb
6Danny DuffyTBD
7Jake deGromTBD
8Michael FoltynewiczTBD
8C.J. WilsonTBD
10Ubaldo JimenezTBD
11Scott KazmirTBD
12Jon LesterTBD
13Justin MastersonTBD
14Ian KennedyWin, 7ip, 6h, 1er, 5k, 0bb
15Joe WielandTBD
16Samuel DedunoTBD
17Mike LeakeTBD
18Carlos CarrascoTBD
19Jerome WilliamsTBD
20Kyle GibsonTBD
21C.C. SabathiaTBD
22Mark BuehrleTBD
23Roenis EliasTBD
24Alex ColomeTBD
25Wily PeraltaTBD
26Alfredo SimonTBD
27Tom KoehlerLoss, 6ip, 7h, 5er, 5k ,1bb
28Tyler MatzekLoss, 2ip, 3h, 4er, 2k, 6bb
29Colby LewisTBD
30Josh CollmenterWin, 7ip, 10h, 5er, 5k, 0bb
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Note: I did not include 2nd game of Rockies/DBacks doubleheader, but both pitchers would be ranked at or near the bottom of the table.
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Monday, May 04, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/5

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Tuesday 5/5/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Stephen StrasburgTBD
2Shelby MillerTBD
3Zack GreinkeTBD
4Garrett RichardsTBD
5Andrew CashnerTBD
6Bartolo ColonTBD
7Jeff LockeTBD
8Scott FeldmanTBD
9Rick PorcelloTBD
10Jason VargasTBD
11Tyler LyonsTBD
11Michael PinedaTBD
13Jeff SamardzijaTBD
14Ryan VogelsongTBD
15Danny SalazarTBD
16Bud NorrisTBD
17Jesse ChavezTBD
18Tyler MatzekTBD
19Trevor MayTBD
20Chad BillingsleyTBD
21Kyle HendricksTBD
22James PaxtonTBD
23Shane GreeneTBD
24Michael LorenzenTBD
25Marco EstradaTBD
26Matt GarzaTBD
27Drew SmylyTBD
28Mat LatosTBD
29Wandy RodriguezTBD
30Josh CollmenterTBD
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Sunday, May 03, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/4

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Monday 5/4/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Clayton KershawTBD
2Dallas KeuchelTBD
3Madison BumgarnerTBD
4Jordan ZimmermanTBD
5Carlos MartinezTBD
6Alex WoodTBD
7Felix HernandezTBD
8Tyson RossTBD
9Phil HughesTBD
10Clay BuchholzTBD
11Matt ShoemakerTBD
12Jesse HahnTBD
13Aaron HarangTBD
14R.A. DickeyTBD
15Travis WoodTBD
16Taylor MatzekTBD
17Kyle LohseTBD
18David PhelpsTBD
19Jake OdorizziTBD
20Chase WhitleyTBD
21Ross DetwilerTBD
22Josh CollmenterTBD
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Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/3

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Sunday 5/3/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPlayerResult
1James ShieldsWin
2Johnny CuetoLoss
3Jarred CosartLoss
4Michael WachaND
5Brett AndersonND
5Sonny GrayWin
7Dillon GeeLoss
8Trevor BauerND
9Doug FisterWin
10Tim LincecumWin
11Julio TeheranWin
12Mike PelfreyND
13Jered WeaverLoss
14Wei-Yin ChenND
15Nathan KarnsND
16Joe KellyTBD
17Jason HammelND
18Anibal SanchezWin
19Jason VargasND
20J.A. HappND
21Drew HutchisonND
22Roberto HernandezND
23Vance WorleyND
24Kyle KendrickLoss
25Yovani GallardoLoss
26Chase AndersonND
27John DanksLoss
28Adam WarrenTBD
29Severino GonzalezWin
30Jimmy NelsonND
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Saturday, May 02, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/2

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Saturday 5/2/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Jake ArrietaTBD
2Chris ArcherTBD
3Brandon MorrowTBD
4Corey KluberTBD
5Gio GonzalezTBD
6Collin McHughTBD
6Scott BakerTBD
8Dan HarenTBD
9John LackeyTBD
10David PriceTBD
11Drew PomeranzTBD
12Cole HamelsTBD
13Tim HudsonTBD
13Eric StultsTBD
15Francisco LirianoTBD
16Hector SantiagoTBD
16Jason MarquisTBD
18Jonathon NieseTBD
19Edinson VolquezTBD
20Ricky NolascoTBD
21Nathan EovaldiTBD
22Miguel GonzalezTBD
23Jorge de la RosaTBD
24Jeremy HellicksonTBD
24Taijuan WalkerTBD
26John DanksTBD
27Nick MartinezTBD
28Mike FiersTBD
29Aaron SanchezTBD
30Wade MileyTBD
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Friday, May 01, 2015

Early Season Look At Park Factors

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The chart below takes a look at the early park factor results from the first month of games. Listed in the chart are the actual park factors and the park factors that Vegas is using in its Over/Under numbers. I am able to reverse engineer the park factors that Vegas is using and compare them to the actual. There is a ton of noise on the actual park factors but it is fun to compare nonetheless.  The chart is sorted by the largest difference between the actual and Vegas park factors.

TeamActual PFVegas PFDelta
Indians1.5140.9260.588
Astros0.5501.1010.551
Braves1.3550.9440.411
Nationals0.6110.9340.323
Orioles1.1360.8410.295
White Sox0.8051.0840.279
Athletics1.2050.9450.260
Dodgers1.1910.9810.210
Royals0.9301.1240.194
Phillies0.8651.0570.192
Twins1.2011.0110.190
Cubs0.7500.9230.173
Giants0.8491.0080.159
Marlins0.8821.0320.150
Yankees1.0780.9440.134
Rockies1.0141.1440.130
Mets1.0920.9650.127
Cardinals1.2141.0870.127
Angels1.1161.0080.108
Rangers0.9921.0940.102
Red Sox0.9771.0690.092
Reds1.0110.9190.092
Padres0.9120.8210.091
Brewers1.1541.0690.085
Pirates1.0310.9500.081
Blue Jays0.9971.0720.075
Dbacks1.1251.1810.056
Mariners0.8760.9250.049
Tigers0.9941.0310.037
Rays0.9710.9480.023
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Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 5/1

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Friday 5/1/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Jon LesterTBD
2Ian KennedyTBD
3Ton KoehlerTBD
4Matt HarveyTBD
5Chris HestonTBD
6Carlos FriasTBD
7Max ScherzerTBD
8Lance LynnTBD
9Scott KazmirTBD
10Anthony DeSclafaniTBD
11Carlos CarrascoTBD
12C.J. WilsonTBD
13Alex ColomeTBD
14Kyle GibsonTBD
15Mike FoltynewiczTBD
16Justin MastersonTBD
17Chris TillmanTBD
18Jose QuintanaTBD
19Samuel DedunoTBD
20Chris YoungTBD
21A.J. BurnettTBD
22Eddie ButlerTBD
23Mark BuehrleTBD
24Roenis EliasTBD
25Kyle LobsteinTBD
26C.C. SabathiaTBD
27Wily PeraltaTBD
28Jerome WilliamsTBD
29Rubby De la RosaTBD
30Colby LewisTBD
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Thursday, April 30, 2015

Winning Streaks


A quick look at which team(s) have had the longest winning streak heading into each day of the MLB season so far.

DateStreakTeam(s)
4/6/20151STL
4/7/20151SEA-LAD-TOR-DET-COL-BOS-BAL-NYM-KC-CIN-ATL-HOU-OAK-SF-STL
4/8/20152ATL-BAL-COL
4/9/20153ATL-COL
4/10/20153ATL-COL-KC-DET
4/11/20154ATL-COL-KC-DET
4/12/20155ATL-KC-DET
4/13/20156KC-DET
4/14/20157KC
4/15/20157KC
4/16/20154NYM-LAD
4/17/20155NYM
4/18/20156NYM
4/19/20157NYM
4/20/20158NYM
4/21/20158NYM
4/22/20159NYM
4/23/201510NYM
4/24/201511NYM
4/25/20154NYY
4/26/20154TB-MIA-STL
4/27/20155TB-MIA-PIT
4/28/20154HOU
4/29/20155HOU
4/30/20156HOU
5/1/20157HOU
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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 4/30

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Thursday 4/30/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

For those of you who like to stream starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, here is a list of the best starts of the day.

RankPitcherResult
1Chris SaleTBD
2Tim CooneyTBD
3Jacob deGromTBD
4Stephen StrasburgTBD
5Shelby MillerTBD
6Mike LeakeTBD
7Daniel NorrisTBD
8Jesse ChavezTBD
9Scott FeldmanTBD
10Garret RichardsTBD
11Danny DuffyTBD
12Alfredo SimonTBD
13T.J. HouseTBD
14James PaxtonTBD
15Trevor MayTBD
16Daniel BuchananTBD
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Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 4/29

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Wednesday 4/29/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts

Streaming fantasy baseball pitchers

RankPitcherResult
1Zack GreinkeTBD
2Carlos MartinezTBD
3Andrew CashnerTBD
4Felix HernandezTBD
5Jordan ZimmermanTBD
6Danny SalazarTBD
7Michael PinedaTBD
8Gerrit ColeTBD
9Michael LorenzenTBD
10Jesse HahnTBD
11Mat LatosTBD
12Rick PorcelloTBD
13Dallas KeuchelTBD
14Ubaldo JimenezTBD
15Bartolo ColonTBD
16Matt ShoemakerTBD
17Alex WoodTBD
18Matt GarzaTBD
19Jeff SamardzijaTBD
20Kyle HendricksTBD
21Yordano VenturaTBD
22Shane GreeneTBD
23Josh CollmenterTBD
24Drew SmylyTBD
25Phil HughesTBD
26Jordan LylesTBD
27Aaron HarangTBD
27Ryan VogelsongTBD
29R.A. DickeyTBD
30Wandy RodriguezTBD
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts 4/28

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Tuesday 4/28/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
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RankPitcherResult
1Clayton KershawTBD
2Michael WachaTBD
3Johnny CuetoTBD
4Tyson RossTBD
5Sonny GrayTBD
6Trevor BauerTBD
7Anibal SanchezTBD
8Travis WoodTBD
9Julio TeheranTBD
10David PhelpsTBD
11Archie BradleyTBD
12Clay BuchholzTBD
13J.A. HappTBD
14A.J. ColeTBD
15Chase WhitleyTBD
16Jeff LockeTBD
17Madison BumgarnerTBD
18Jake OdorizziTBD
19Rafael MonteroTBD
20Jeremy GuthrieTBD
21Roberto HernandezTBD
22Jered WeaverTBD
23Drew HutchisonTBD
24Kyle KendrickTBD
25Ross DetwilerTBD
26Kyle LohseTBD
27Mike PelfreyTBD
28Severino GonzalezTBD
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Monday, April 27, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts

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Monday 4/27/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
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RankPitcherResult
1Corey KluberTBD
2John LackeyTBD
3David PriceTBD
4James ShieldsTBD
4Brett AndersonTBD
4Doug FisterTBD
7Ubaldo JimenezTBD
8Jason HammelTBD
9Jarred CosartTBD
10Joe KellyTBD
11Adam WarrenTBD
12Jason MarquisTBD
13Collin McHughTBD
14Chase AndersonTBD
15Yovani GallardoTBD
16Jimmy NelsonTBD
17Vance WorleyTBD
17Dillon GeeTBD
19Eric StultsTBD
20Taijuan WalkerTBD
21Cole HamelsTBD
22Tyler MatzekTBD
23Tim LincecumTBD
24Nathan KarnsTBD
25Jason VargasTBD
26Hector NoesiTBD
27Aaron SanchezTBD
28Tommy MiloneTBD
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Sunday, April 26, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts

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Sunday 4/26/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
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RankPitcherResult
1Chris ArcherTBD
2Drew PomeranzTBD
3Lance LynnTBD
4Hector SantiagoTBD
4Roenis EliasTBD
4Francisco LirianoTBD
7Nathan EovaldiTBD
8Edinson VolquezTBD
9Jake ArrietaTBD
10Brandon MorrowTBD
11Carlos CarrascoTBD
12Jerome WilliamsTBD
13Dan HarenTBD
14Wade MileyTBD
15Gio GonzalezTBD
16Anthony DeSclafaniTBD
17Scott BakerTBD
18Taylor MatzekTBD
19Trevor CahillTBD
20Kyle LobsteinTBD
21Bud NorrisTBD
22John DanksTBD
23Jonathon NieseTBD
24Kyle GibsonTBD
25Mark BuehrleTBD
26Jeremy HellicksonTBD
27Tim LincecumTBD
28Nick MartinezTBD
29Mike FiersTBD
29Alex WojciehowskiTBD
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Saturday, April 25, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts

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Friday 4/25/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
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RankPitcherResult
1Adam WainwrightTBD
1James PaxtonTBD
3C.J. WilsonTBD
4Stephen StrasburgTBD
5Brandon McCarthyTBD
6Shelby MillerTBD
7Kendall GravemanTBD
8Jake ArrietaTBD
9Edinson VolquezTBD
10C.C. SabathiaTBD
11Alfredo SimonTBD
12A.J. BurnettTBD
13Matt HarveyTBD
14Ian KennedyTBD
15Wei-Yin ChenTBD
16Erasmo RamirezTBD
17Alex DeSclafaniTBD
18Daniel NorrisTBD
19David BuchananTBD
20John DanksTBD
21Justin MastersonTBD
22Toby KoehlerTBD
23Jorge de la RosaTBD
24Trevor BauerTBD
25Scott FeldmanTBD
26Rubby de la RosaTBD
27Tim HudsonTBD
28Wily PeraltaTBD
29Trevor MayTBD
30Colby LewisTBD
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Friday, April 24, 2015

Best Daily Fantasy Pitcher Starts

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Thursday 4/24/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
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RankPitcherResult
1F.Hernandez (SEA, vs MIN)TBD
2G.Richards (LAA, vs TEX)TBD
3Z.Greinke (LAN, @ SD)TBD
4G.Cole (PIT, @ ARI)TBD
5S.Kazmir (OAK, vs HOU)TBD
6M.Pineda (NYA, vs NYN)TBD
7S.Greene (DET, vs CLE)TBD
8C.Martinez (STL, @ MIL)TBD
9J.Zimmerman (WAS, @ MIA)TBD
10A.Wood (ATL, @ PHI)TBD
11J.Lester (CHN, @ CIN)TBD
12R.Dickey (TOR, @ TB)TBD
13A.Cashner (SD, vs LAN)TBD
14M.Gonzalez (BAL, vs BOS)TBD
15A.Harang (PHI, vs ATL)TBD
16D.Duffy (KC, @ CHA)TBD
17D.Smyly (TB, vs TOR)TBD
18M.Leake (CIN, vs CHN)TBD
19J.Quintana (CHA, vs KC)TBD
20M.Latos (MIA, vs WAS)TBD
21D.Keuchel (HOU, @ OAK)TBD
22J.deGrom (NYN, @ NYA)TBD
23E.Butler (COL, vs SF)TBD
24R.Porcello (BOS, @ BAL)TBD
25M.Garza (MIL, vs STL)TBD
26C.Heston (SF, @ COL)TBD
27D.Salazar (CLE, @ DET)TBD
28J.Collmenter (ARI, vs PIT)TBD
29P.Hughes (MIN, @ SEA)TBD
30W.Rodriguez (TEX, @ LAA)TBD
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Thursday, April 23, 2015

Today's Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts


This is iteration (or version) one of an algorithm I am developing to list the best pitchers to start on a given day in a standard fantasy baseball league. This algorithm will progressively get better and list more important information. What you are looking at is the first iteration of this process. The list currently takes into consideration the chances for the team to win and how many runs the pitcher is likely to give up. Not perfect, but a good start.
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Thursday 4/23/2015 Best Fantasy Pitcher Starts
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RankPitcherResult
1Max ScherzerLOSS, 7ip, 2er, 6h, 4k, 0bb
2Chris SaleND, 7ip, 2er, 9h, 2k, 1bb
3Bartolo ColonWIN, 6ip, 3er, 7h, 5k, 0bb
4Drew HutchisonWIN, 8ip, 2er, 4h, 7k, 0bb
5David PhelpsWIN, 7ip, 0er, 3h, 5k, 2bb
6Homer BaileyND, 5.2ip, 2er, 7h, 3k, 1bb
7Jake OdorizziND, 6.2ip, 1er, 3h, 3k, 3bb
7Jeff LockeND, 5ip, 4er, 7h, 7k, 3bb
9Ryan VogelsongND, 6ip, 2er, 3h, 5k, 1bb
9Mike BolsingerND, 5.2ip, 1er, 5h, 5k, 2bb
11Anibal SanchezND, 6.1ip, 1er, 1h, 8k, 4bb
12Jesse SanchezLOSS, 6ip, 1er, 1h, 4k, 3bb
13Michael WachaWIN, 7ip, 1er, 5h, 6k, 2bb
14Clay BuchholzND, 6ip, 1er, 2h, 10k, 3bb
14Masahiro TanakaND, 6.1ip, 1er, 3h, 6k, 2bb
16Julio TeheranLOSS, 4.1ip, 4er, 3h, 5k, 5bb
17Nick TropeanoWIN, 6ip, 0er, 5h, 5k, 1bb
18Dustin McGowanLOSS, 3.1ip, 4er, 3h, 4k, 4bb
18Kyle HendricksND, 5.1ip, 3er, 5h, 2k, 0bb
20Yordano VenturaND, 7ip, 2er, 5h, 8k, 1bb
21Tyson RossLOSS, 5ip, 2er, 6h, 7k, 4bb
22Kyle LohseWIN, 7ip, 2er, 3h, 4k, 1bb
23Jordan LylesWIN, 6.2ip, 1er, 6h, 4k, 2bb
24Chris TillmanLOSS, 4.1ip, 7er, 5h, 3k, 5bb
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Sunday, April 19, 2015

Early Season Look At Offense

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A quick look reveals that offense is down once again this season. Though it is still early and we are in April and we could be seeing an effect from cold early spring temperatures. Either way this is what the data looks like so far. I will check back on this a little later in the season to see what the trend looks like.

SeasonPAHRRBB%K%BABIPAVGOBPSLGwOBA
20001838675659246389.80%15.90%0.3020.2750.350.4450.346
20011808265431228638.60%16.80%0.2980.2680.3370.4350.332
20021805595032221038.90%16.30%0.2940.2650.3360.4240.331
20031812935173226598.70%15.90%0.2960.2680.3370.430.333
20041823925425230828.80%16.30%0.2990.2700.3400.4360.335
20051801674996220368.30%16.00%0.2970.2680.3350.4270.331
20061820235354232938.60%16.30%0.3040.2740.3420.440.337
20071826714930229978.70%16.60%0.3050.2720.340.430.336
20081816554859223018.90%17.00%0.3020.2680.3380.4240.333
20091810515015221239.10%17.50%0.3010.2660.3380.4250.334
20101794954597210228.70%18.00%0.2990.2610.3300.4100.326
20111792854524205368.30%18.10%0.2970.2590.3250.4060.321
20121782664910207438.10%19.20%0.2990.2590.3240.4130.320
20131793614640200188.10%19.30%0.2990.2570.3220.4030.318
20141784094171195207.80%19.90%0.3010.2550.3180.3930.315
20151239332013748.10%19.90%0.2880.2470.3150.3940.310
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Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Exportable 2015 MLB Schedule


Something that is difficult to find on the internet is an excel download file of the 2015 MLB Schedule.  I have taken the time to write a script that takes the 2015 MLB Schedule and converts it to an easy to use CSV file and uploaded it to google docs.  The file is free to download and can be found at the following link.

Here is the format that the file is in

Game ID,Year,Month,Day,Time,Away,Home

1,2015,4,5,8:05 PM,Cardinals,Cubs
2,2015,4,6,1:05 PM,Blue Jays,Yankees
3,2015,4,6,1:08 PM,Twins,Tigers
4,2015,4,6,2:10 PM,Rockies,Brewers
5,2015,4,6,3:05 PM,Red Sox,Phillies
6,2015,4,6,3:10 PM,Orioles,Rays
7,2015,4,6,4:05 PM,Mets,Nationals
8,2015,4,6,4:10 PM,Braves,Marlins
9,2015,4,6,4:10 PM,White Sox,Royals
10,2015,4,6,4:10 PM,Angels,Mariners
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2426,2015,10,4,3:10 PM,Athletics,Mariners
2427,2015,10,4,3:10 PM,Padres,Dodgers
2428,2015,10,4,3:10 PM,Blue Jays,Rays
2429,2015,10,4,3:10 PM,Nationals,Mets
2430,2015,10,4,4:10 PM,Astros,D-backs

Please keep in mind that game times and dates will be changing due to rain and I will not be maintaining these changes.

Monday, March 02, 2015

Oakland Athletics - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

There are many ways people attempt to determine the best batting order.  Some people try to arrange high on base percentage people at the top of the lineup followed by sluggers and then the rest of the crew and slap on a pitcher batting 9th (NL Team) and you are good to go.  Others try calculators where you enter in player stats and out pops the best lineups.  These are all fun and probably get you part of the way there but they are in NO WAY scientific enough to make much of a claim to what the top lineups might be.

The best way (in my opinion) to determine which lineup is the best is to actually trot out every single lineup and see which one wins the most games.  Of course you would have to hold the opponent constant, using the same starters, lineup and starting pitcher.  How hard could that be to do?  Let's see, with nine batters in a lineup you would only have 362,880 lineups to go through.  How long could that take to play over 350,000 baseball games.  You could probably filter those permutations down to 25,000 or so by limiting left handed batters from hitting back to back, limiting the pitcher (NL) to batting either 8th or 9th, plus a few other obvious things.  Even if you could narrow things down to just two lineups, you would still need to play more than one game to determine which one was better.  So how many samples/games would you need?  10? 20? or maybe an entire season (162) of games?  No.  You would need a lot more than that.  Try tens of thousands just to separate the bad lineups from the good and then try a million or two to compare the best lineups.

Well, I think it is pretty impossible to play thousands of games one time or a couple of games a million times.  Hypothetically, if one were able to play games with thousands of different lineups, thousands or millions of times against the exact same opponent then you would get a very good idea as to which lineups were the best.  This is where simulation comes in handy.  A simulator that could play actual baseball games, by actual baseball rules, taking into consideration the important facets of a real baseball game like speed, defense, pitchers getting tired the more pitches they throw, splits, hitter vs pitcher matchups and outcomes and throw in some good player projections like the ones available for free at Fangraphs and then maybe through the power of the computer you could plow through tens of thousands of likely lineups to determine the best ones.

Now, you would be able to test the synergy of batting certain groups of players next to each other.  You would be able to experiment with various types of hitters hitting in different spots.  In fact, you could just let the computer run through each lineup and let you know what the top ones were, even tabulating how many times each player showed up at each spot in the top lineups.  Now you would have a good list of top lineups and be able to measure how many wins a manager might be leaving on the table by using the lineup(s) that he used.  Wouldn't it be very worthwhile for a team to know what its best lineups might be?  Of course it would, especially considering that on the free agent market one win (or WAR) is typically worth around $7M.  For managers that might not want to hit certain batters in certain lineup spots for whatever reason, he could use the filtering option to only measure lineups that fit his parameters.

Well, now on to what my game simulator using Steamer hitting projections lists as the top fifty lineups for the 2015 Oakland Athletics.  I only looked at lineups against a right handed starting pitcher and took the nine most likely starters from the list at the Roster Resource website and I have of course used their most common lineup as one of the many (10,000+) lineups that I am looking at.  Along with the top fifty lineups, there is a table showing how many times each player shows up in each lineup spot and what the most common back to back slottings are as well as back to back to back slottings (think synergy here).

Summary:
The batting order frequency table tells a lot here.  If you were to piece together a lineup from only the frequency table you would likely come up with what is the second ranked optimal lineup.  The lineup listed from the Roster Resource website came in listed 34th.  I've ran a few of these now for various teams and the Athletics seem to have a very balanced lineup with no one player way better than the others not causing much of a spread between the top lineups.  I also purposely added a bad lineup to the bottom of the top 50 list just to see what the maximum spread for the team looks like.  According to the simulator, there are not a lot of wins for the Athletics manager to leave on the table vs RHP compared to some of the other teams.

                                          Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0
2Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.001
3Reddick-Crisp-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.016
4Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.042
5Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Davis0.067
6Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Reddick0.093
7Fuld-Crisp-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien0.094
8Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.103
9Reddick-Semien-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler0.107
10Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0.108
11Lawrie-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0.108
12Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Fuld-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler0.109
13Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Vogt-Semien0.117
14Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Zobrist-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.123
15Zobrist-Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.14
16Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0.141
17Semien-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Crisp-Vogt0.146
18Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.146
19Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.152
20Fuld-Crisp-Butler-Davis-Semien-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Zobrist0.156
21Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Reddick0.156
22Reddick-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.159
23Crisp-Butler-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Vogt-Zobrist-Fuld0.175
24Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Lawrie-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.181
25Fuld-Crisp-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Butler0.191
26Reddick-Zobrist-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Crisp-Vogt-Butler0.192
27Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.192
28Crisp-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.195
29Crisp-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Davis0.204
30Crisp-Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.209
31Crisp-Fuld-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Butler-Semien-Vogt0.210
32Crisp-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Fuld-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Reddick0.213
33Semien-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Davis0.214
34Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Lawrie-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.218
35Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.221
36Reddick-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Fuld-Semien-Crisp-Vogt-Butler0.222
37Crisp-Davis-Butler-Reddick-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.236
38Semien-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Fuld-Butler0.238
39Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Butler-Reddick-Zobrist-Fuld0.242
40Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Davis0.244
41Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Semien-Vogt0.248
42Crisp-Butler-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.257
43Lawrie-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Crisp-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Reddick0.258
44Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Zobrist-Vogt0.260
45Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Fuld-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler0.263
46Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Zobrist0.267
47Crisp-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Semien-Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Vogt0.283
48Fuld-Semien-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Reddick-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler0.284
49Crisp-Vogt-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.294
50Crisp-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.294
BADVogt-Butler-Fuld-Crisp-Semien-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie1.419
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             Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Crisp21900134210
Reddick8107929104
Lawrie20251134410
Davis2582650004
Zobrist8923155332
Vogt040021114109
Semien53007101582
Butler02810141915
Fuld4800367814
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                    Synergy


   Back to Back Frequency Leaders
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
122LawrieDavis
220VogtSemien
320SemienFuld
420FuldButler
518ReddickLawrie
617CrispVogt
717DavisZobrist
816ZobristReddick
915ButlerReddick
1015FuldCrisp
1114ButlerDavis
1213VogtButler
1312ReddickZobrist
1411DavisLawrie
1511DavisSemien
1611ZobristVogt
1710ReddickCrisp
1810LawrieReddick
1910DavisCrisp
2010ButlerFuld

     Back To Back to Back Frequency Leaders
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
113VogtSemienFuld
213SemienFuldButler
312ReddickLawrieDavis
410ZobristReddickLawrie
58LawrieDavisSemien
68DavisZobristReddick
77CrispVogtSemien
87LawrieDavisCrisp
97LawrieDavisZobrist
106LawrieVogtSemien
116DavisLawrieReddick
126ZobristVogtSemien
136VogtButlerFuld
146SemienFuldCrisp
156ButlerReddickCrisp
166ButlerReddickZobrist
176ButlerDavisZobrist
186FuldButlerReddick
195CrispVogtButler
205LawrieReddickZobrist
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Thursday, February 26, 2015

LA Dodgers 2015 Preview

As the 2015 Major League Baseball season approaches, signs point to this year as a good season to be a LA Dodgers fan. The organization made the move to bring in former Oakland Athletics’ GM, Farhan Zaidi back in November, and are primed for another run this coming season.

The new general manager, along with the new president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman have had a very active off season thus far for their new club. After letting disgruntled shortstop Hanley Ramirez leave in free agency, they also agreed to pay $30 million of Matt Kemp’s salary in order to send the temperamental outfielder south to the San Diego Padres. In addition to those moves, they also traded for shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Howie Kendrick, two solid veterans with high character qualities that will pay dividends in the locker room. They also made a couple moves that many considered questionable, like the signing of Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, who are both talented pitchers but who have struggled with injuries throughout most their careers. Regardless, both should help bolster the back end of the Dodgers rotation this season.

Besides the new additions, LA is also returning some of the biggest star players in the game, Clayton Kershaw and Yasiel Puig. Kershaw is well on his way to becoming a living legend as he became only the third starting pitcher in the history of the game to lead their league in ERA for four straight seasons, and there’s little reason to doubt that he can make this season his fifth straight in leading the league in ERA.

Backing up Kershaw in the outfield is arguably the most dynamic player in the game today, Yasiel Puig. The exciting and explosive Cuban-born player continues to be one of the most entertaining players in the league. With his rocket arm that can throw runners out at home from the warning track, his blazing speed which makes any gap single into a potential double, and his acrobatic catches he makes on a routine basis, Puig is quickly becoming one of the best all-around players in the game.

With some new faces running the show this season for the Dodgers, and some solid additions to their club, the Dodgers are once again expected to be right in the thick of things come playoff time of the 2015 baseball season. Plenty of story lines to look forward to this year, especially Kershaw’s attempt to go for his fifth straight season leading the league in ERA. It’s a great year to be a fan of LA Dodgers baseball, and we look forward to another successful campaign for the upcoming season.

This article was brought you by the handicapping experts at Sports Information Traders. For 2015 MLB Picks and predictions as well as sports betting tips to help you get through this years Major League Baseball season.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Miami Marlins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Miami Marlins (vs RHP).  I started out with 15,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Stanton 8th or 9th or Dee Gordon cleanup etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.85 wins per 162 games which is a pretty wide range for a top 50 lineup list.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 1.65 wins/162 games behind (not good).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups.  The simulator is a program that I wrote in C/C++ and I have back tested it against Vegas odds in the past to make sure it is good.  The program plays actual games, with actual baseball rules and takes pretty much everything you can think of into consideration.  This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Marlins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  Once down to the top fifty lineups, I simulated each lineup 2 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                                             Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0
2Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.232
3Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.250
4Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.308
5Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.359
6Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.374
7Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.384
8Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.386
9Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.392
10Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.438
11Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.443
12Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.448
13Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.491
14Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.498
15Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.525
16Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.541
17Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.543
18Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.546
19Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.553
20Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.574
21Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.584
22Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.584
23Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher0.594
24Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.605
25Gordon-Yelich-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.613
26Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.633
27Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.641
28Gordon-Yelich-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.642
29Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.648
30Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.652
31Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.653
32Prado-Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.659
33Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.674
34Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.678
35Yelich-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.685
36Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.688
37Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Ozuna0.704
38Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.723
39Ozuna-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.725
40Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.727
41Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.735
42Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Pitcher-Salta0.741
43Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.758
44Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Prado-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.770
45Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.771
46Prado-Gordon-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.775
47Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.775
48Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Morse-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.799
49Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.810
50Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.855
   
MLBDCGordon-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Hechavarria-pitcher1.648
BADSalta-Hechavarria-Morse-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Pitcher4.400


                  Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Gordon27220001000
Yelich171532121000
Prado26291120000
Stanton00122882000
Ozuna41362014101
Morse0233822804
Salta00000133151
Hechavarria0400098029
Pitcher00000003515


                    Synergy


20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
148SaltaPitcher
229PitcherHechavarria
327PradoStanton
423MorseSalta
519GordonPrado
618YelichGordon
717StantonOzuna
816GordonYelich
916HechavarriaGordon
1013OzunaMorse
1113OzunaSalta
1212PradoOzuna
1311StantonYelich
1411StantonMorse
1511HechavarriaSalta
1610HechavarriaYelich
179YelichPrado
189StantonPrado
199OzunaHechavarria
208YelichStanton
208MorseHechavarria
208PitcherGordon

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
128SaltaPitcherHechavarria
223MorseSaltaPitcher
316PitcherHechavarriaGordon
412OzunaSaltaPitcher
511GordonPradoStanton
611PradoStantonOzuna
711HechavarriaSaltaPitcher
810YelichGordonPrado
910HechavarriaYelichGordon
1010PitcherHechavarriaYelich
119GordonYelichPrado
129PradoStantonYelich
138StantonPradoOzuna
148SaltaPitcherGordon
158HechavarriaGordonYelich
167PradoStantonMorse
177OzunaMorseSalta
186YelichPradoStanton
196StantonYelichOzuna
206StantonOzunaMorse
206MorseHechavarriaSalta
206HechavarriaGordonPrado
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Dodgers Fantasy Outlook 2015

Author: Matt Smith

With one of the highest payrolls in the game, the Los Angeles Dodgers should be pretty competitive for the foreseeable future. However, for a franchise that has not won a World Series in over 25 years, being competitive is not enough. They have made some changes heading into the 2015 season to their roster, and the hope is that it is enough for regular and postseason success.

Even though they have a lot of fantasy baseball talent last season, nothing seemed to really click with the franchise consistently. They would play well in spurts, but then they would go on a cold streak. About the only dependable player on the roster was Clayton Kershaw, and ironically he became inconsistent as soon as the postseason began.

Andrew Feldman was brought in to help make better decisions in the front office for the Los Angeles Dodgers. With seemingly unlimited funds compared to what he was working with in Tampa Bay, it will be interesting to see what type of deals he pulls off in the future. Right away, he decided to go after veteran players who have championship pedigrees. Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick can still provide value in fantasy baseball, but they will be just as important in the locker room.

Joc Pederson might not be new to the franchise, but he will now take over as the new everyday center fielder for the franchise. Many look at him as one of the top youngsters in the game, so he will need to hit the ground running in 2015. The franchise specifically made room for him by trading away some pretty decent talent, so it will be interesting to see what he does with a little bit more pressure on him.

Not only has losing been tough for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the postseason, but watching the San Francisco Giants win 3 World Series in the last 5 seasons stings. Hopefully, with some subtle moves, this team will be a bit better when the games matter most.


Sunday, February 15, 2015

Minnesota Twins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Minnesota Twins.  I started out with 25,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Joe Mauer 8th or 9th etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.35 wins per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 0.59 wins/162 games behind (not bad).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Twins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.  The Twins have two left handed batters in the starting nine that I used.  For this exercise, I assumed that there was no restriction on batting the two left handed batters (Mauer, Arcia) back to back.  Obviously, if you add that restriction then 33 of these 50 lineups would be different.

                                               Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0
2Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.013
3Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.018
4Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter0.027
5Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.033
6Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.048
7Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.055
8Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki0.061
9Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.087
10Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki-Dozier0.097
11Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe0.101
12Hicks-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.105
13Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.106
14Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks0.109
15Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Santana-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe0.113
16Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Hunter0.117
17Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter0.119
18Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hunter0.120
19Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.123
20Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.136
21Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks0.143
22Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki0.147
23Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.151
24Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.155
25Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier0.160
26Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.161
27Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks0.183
28Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.186
29Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks-Dozier0.193
30Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter0.197
31Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.200
32Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe0.209
33Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks0.211
34Hicks-Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe0.222
35Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki0.226
36Dozier-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hunter-Hicks0.229
37Santana-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.230
38Arcia-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Dozier-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe0.231
39Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.236
40Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.242
41Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki0.242
42Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks0.247
43Santana-Hunter-Arcia-Mauer-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Hicks-Suzuki0.254
44Santana-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.263
45Hunter-Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.272
46Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.277
47Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Vargas-Hicks-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter0.282
48Dozier-Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe0.290
49Hicks-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.299
50Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe0.345
......
MLBSantana-Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Hicks0.587
BADSuzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Santana-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer1.714
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           Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Santana32120015000
Mauer018201200000
Arcia10923161000
Vargas06191384000
Hunter5721591029
Plouffe000041314127
Hicks4100779913
Suzuki030004121714
Dozier8301975107
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Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
133MauerArcia
222SantanaMauer
316MauerVargas
416ArciaVargas
515DozierSuzuki
614VargasMauer
714PlouffeDozier
814SuzukiHicks
913PlouffeHicks
1013HicksSuzuki
1112VargasArcia
1212SuzukiPlouffe
1311SantanaHunter
1411HunterSantana
1511HunterPlouffe
1611PlouffeSuzuki
1711HicksSantana
1811DozierSantana
1910SantanaVargas
2010ArciaPlouffe
2010SuzukiSantana

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
116MauerArciaVargas
213VargasMauerArcia
312MauerVargasArcia
411SantanaMauerArcia
511SantanaMauerVargas
69SantanaVargasMauer
78HunterSantanaMauer
88DozierSantanaMauer
97PlouffeDozierSuzuki
106MauerArciaDozier
116PlouffeHicksSuzuki
126PlouffeSuzukiHicks
136SuzukiHicksSantana
145MauerArciaPlouffe
155HunterMauerArcia
165SuzukiPlouffeHicks
175SuzukiDozierSantana
185DozierSuzukiHicks
194SantanaHunterMauer
204ArciaVargasHunter
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