I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Miami Marlins (vs RHP). I started out with 15,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups. Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Stanton 8th or 9th or Dee Gordon cleanup etc... For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.85 wins per 162 games which is a pretty wide range for a top 50 lineup list. When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 1.65 wins/162 games behind (not good). You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup. The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. The simulator is a program that I wrote in C/C++ and I have back tested it against Vegas odds in the past to make sure it is good. The program plays actual games, with actual baseball rules and takes pretty much everything you can think of into consideration. This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Marlins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups. Once down to the top fifty lineups, I simulated each lineup 2 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher. Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.
Top 50 Lineups
| Rank | Lineup | Wins/162 Games Behind |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0 |
| 2 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.232 |
| 3 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.250 |
| 4 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.308 |
| 5 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.359 |
| 6 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.374 |
| 7 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse | 0.384 |
| 8 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.386 |
| 9 | Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.392 |
| 10 | Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.438 |
| 11 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.443 |
| 12 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse | 0.448 |
| 13 | Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.491 |
| 14 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.498 |
| 15 | Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.525 |
| 16 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.541 |
| 17 | Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.543 |
| 18 | Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.546 |
| 19 | Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.553 |
| 20 | Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse | 0.574 |
| 21 | Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.584 |
| 22 | Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.584 |
| 23 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher | 0.594 |
| 24 | Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.605 |
| 25 | Gordon-Yelich-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.613 |
| 26 | Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.633 |
| 27 | Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.641 |
| 28 | Gordon-Yelich-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.642 |
| 29 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.648 |
| 30 | Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.652 |
| 31 | Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.653 |
| 32 | Prado-Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.659 |
| 33 | Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Morse | 0.674 |
| 34 | Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.678 |
| 35 | Yelich-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.685 |
| 36 | Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.688 |
| 37 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Ozuna | 0.704 |
| 38 | Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.723 |
| 39 | Ozuna-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.725 |
| 40 | Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.727 |
| 41 | Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher | 0.735 |
| 42 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Pitcher-Salta | 0.741 |
| 43 | Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.758 |
| 44 | Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Prado-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.770 |
| 45 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.771 |
| 46 | Prado-Gordon-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.775 |
| 47 | Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.775 |
| 48 | Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Morse-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.799 |
| 49 | Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria | 0.810 |
| 50 | Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher | 0.855 |
| MLBDC | Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Hechavarria-pitcher | 1.648 |
| BAD | Salta-Hechavarria-Morse-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Pitcher | 4.400 |
Batting Order Frequency Table
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon | 27 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yelich | 17 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Prado | 2 | 6 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanton | 0 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ozuna | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Morse | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
| Salta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 15 | 1 |
| Hechavarria | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| Pitcher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 15 |
Synergy
20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
| Rank | Occurrences | Player 1 | Player 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48 | Salta | Pitcher |
| 2 | 29 | Pitcher | Hechavarria |
| 3 | 27 | Prado | Stanton |
| 4 | 23 | Morse | Salta |
| 5 | 19 | Gordon | Prado |
| 6 | 18 | Yelich | Gordon |
| 7 | 17 | Stanton | Ozuna |
| 8 | 16 | Gordon | Yelich |
| 9 | 16 | Hechavarria | Gordon |
| 10 | 13 | Ozuna | Morse |
| 11 | 13 | Ozuna | Salta |
| 12 | 12 | Prado | Ozuna |
| 13 | 11 | Stanton | Yelich |
| 14 | 11 | Stanton | Morse |
| 15 | 11 | Hechavarria | Salta |
| 16 | 10 | Hechavarria | Yelich |
| 17 | 9 | Yelich | Prado |
| 18 | 9 | Stanton | Prado |
| 19 | 9 | Ozuna | Hechavarria |
| 20 | 8 | Yelich | Stanton |
| 20 | 8 | Morse | Hechavarria |
| 20 | 8 | Pitcher | Gordon |
20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
| Rank | Occurrences | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | Salta | Pitcher | Hechavarria |
| 2 | 23 | Morse | Salta | Pitcher |
| 3 | 16 | Pitcher | Hechavarria | Gordon |
| 4 | 12 | Ozuna | Salta | Pitcher |
| 5 | 11 | Gordon | Prado | Stanton |
| 6 | 11 | Prado | Stanton | Ozuna |
| 7 | 11 | Hechavarria | Salta | Pitcher |
| 8 | 10 | Yelich | Gordon | Prado |
| 9 | 10 | Hechavarria | Yelich | Gordon |
| 10 | 10 | Pitcher | Hechavarria | Yelich |
| 11 | 9 | Gordon | Yelich | Prado |
| 12 | 9 | Prado | Stanton | Yelich |
| 13 | 8 | Stanton | Prado | Ozuna |
| 14 | 8 | Salta | Pitcher | Gordon |
| 15 | 8 | Hechavarria | Gordon | Yelich |
| 16 | 7 | Prado | Stanton | Morse |
| 17 | 7 | Ozuna | Morse | Salta |
| 18 | 6 | Yelich | Prado | Stanton |
| 19 | 6 | Stanton | Yelich | Ozuna |
| 20 | 6 | Stanton | Ozuna | Morse |
| 20 | 6 | Morse | Hechavarria | Salta |
| 20 | 6 | Hechavarria | Gordon | Prado |
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