Sunday, December 27, 2009

2010 NL East WAR


Last updated 1/14

NL East
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Phillies 30.6 17.4 46.5 94.5
Braves 22.4 20.4 46.5 89.3
Mets 22.4 14.0 46.5 82.9
Marlins 18.7 13.3 46.5 78.5
Nationals 18.5 6.9 46.5 71.9

Top 10 NL East WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Chase Utley Phillies 8.1
2 Hanley Ramirez Marlins 7.4
3 Roy Halladay Phillies 6.7
4 David Wright Mets 6.4
4 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 6.4
6 Brian McCann Braves 5.5
7 Jose Reyes Mets 5.2
7 Josh Johnson Marlins 5.2
9 Johan Santana Mets 4.7
10 Chipper Jones Braves 4.6
10 Tommy Hanson Braves 4.5

Update Notes:
12/29: Jason Bay projections added for Mets
1/14: Adjusted C.Beltran down (injury) & updated Top 10 list.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

2010 NL Central WAR


Not breaking down the details like I did in the NL West version, but here are the results. Last updated 1/5

NL Central
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Cardinals 24.4 19.1 48.0 91.5
Cubs 20.1 13.7 48.0 81.8
Brewers 20.4 9.7 48.0 78.1
Reds 16.2 10.7 48.0 74.9
Astros 16.3 9.7 48.0 74.0
Pirates 13.9 9.6 48.0 71.5
Top 10 NL Central WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Albert Pujols Cardinals 7.5
2 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 5.5
3 Prince Fielder Brewers 5.3
4 Ryan Braun Brewers 5.1
5 Matt Holliday Cardinals 5.0
6 Joey Votto Reds 4.9
6 Aramis Ramirez Cubs 4.9
6 Chris Carpenter Cardinals 4.9
9 Andrew McCutchen Pirates 4.6
10 Lance Berkman Astros 4.4
Changes Made
1/5: Adjusted A.Pujols from 8.0 to 7.5 WAR
1/5: Added Matt Holiday @ 5.0 WAR to Cardinals lineup

Friday, December 18, 2009

2010 NL West WAR


It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

  Rockies Dodgers Giants DBacks Padres
Pos Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR
C C.Iannetta 2.5 R.Martin 3.0 B.Molina 1.2 M.Montero 3.3 N.Hundley 2.2
1B T.Helton 3.8 J.Loney 1.8 A.Huff 1.4 A.LaRoche 1.5 A.Gonzalez 5.2
2B C.Barmes 1.8 B.Dewitt 1.5 F.Sanchez 2.2 K.Johnson 2.5 D.Eckstein 0.6
3B I.Stewart 1.8 C.Blake 3.5 P.Sandoval 5.0 M.Reynolds 3.9 K.Kouzmanoff 3.0
SS T.Tulowitzki 6.0 R.Furcal 2.9 E.Renteria 1.0 S.Drew 2.2 E.Cabrera 1.7
LF S.Smith 2.7 M.Ramirez 3.8 M.DeRosa 2.3 C.Jackson 2.5 C.Headley 2.4
CF C.Gonzalez 4.0 M.Kemp 5.4 A.Rowand 1.7 C.Young 1.0 W.Venable 2.3
RF B.Hawpe 1.8 A.Ethier 3.3 N.Schierholtz 1.7 J.Upton 5.5 T.Gwynn 2.8
UT D.Fowler 1.8 J.Carroll 0.3 A.Torres 1.6 G.Parra 1.0 K.Blanks 1.2
BN Bench 2.0 Bench 0.6 Bench 3.2 Bench 1.1 Bench 0.8
Misc Sucktitude -4.7   -4.0   -5.5   -6.0   -7.9
 
Pitchers
SP1 U.Jimenez 5.1 C.Kershaw 4.4 T.Lincecum 7.0 D.Haren 5.5 K.Correia 2.3
SP2 J.de la Rosa 3.0 C.Billingsley 3.5 M.Cain 4.0 B.Webb 5.0 C.Richard 2.0
SP3 J.Hammel 2.9 H.Kuroda 2.5 J.Sanchez 2.4 E.Jackson 2.5 M.Latos 1.5
SP4 A.Cook 2.2 V.Padilla 2.5 B.Zito 2.0 I.Kennedy 2.0 C.Young 1.5
SP5 J.Francis 2.0 E.Stults 1.7 M.Bumgarner 1.8 B.Buckner 1.5 W.LeBlanc 1.5
SP All Others 0.1 All Others 0.7 All Others 0.1 All Others 0.3 All Others 0.7
CL H.Street 1.5 J.Broxton 2.3 B.Wilson 2.0 C.Qualls 1.0 H.Bell 1.8
SU R.Betancourt 0.7 G.Sherrill 1.0 J.Affeldt 1.0 J.Gutierrez 0.5 L.Perdomo 0.2
RP All Others 0.9 All Others 1.5 All Others 1.0 All Others 1.2 All Others 1.1
Misc Sucktitude -0.3   -1.0   -0.8   -1.0   -6.9
 
Hitters   23.4   22.1   15.5   18.8   14.3
Pitchers   18.1   19.1   20.5   18.2   5.7
Replacement   46.5   46.5   46.5   46.5   46.5
Total   88.0   87.7   82.5   83.5   66.5
Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Xizzles


I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)
Name Pos AB Hits 1B 2B 3B HR AVE OBP SLG OPS wOBA BABIP
Matt Kemp CF 600.0 176.6 117.0 27.2 5.7 26.7 0.294 0.348 0.492 0.840 0.363 0.341
Andre Ethier RF 580.0 161.3 87.5 40.9 3.3 29.5 0.278 0.357 0.513 0.870 0.374 0.298
Manny Ramirez LF 510.0 147.8 86.4 32.7 2.4 26.3 0.290 0.404 0.518 0.921 0.401 0.332
Casey Blake 3B 500.0 137.6 89.4 25.4 5.2 17.6 0.275 0.356 0.452 0.808 0.354 0.331
Rafael Furcal SS 600.0 164.2 122.1 27.4 5.3 9.4 0.274 0.341 0.384 0.725 0.325 0.306
Blake DeWitt 3B 400.0 103.3 63.7 25.1 2.5 12.0 0.258 0.321 0.424 0.745 0.326 0.281
Russell Martin C 515.0 131.2 101.3 20.0 0.1 9.7 0.255 0.347 0.351 0.698 0.319 0.284
James Loney 1B 550.0 156.1 114.2 24.8 2.5 14.6 0.284 0.359 0.417 0.776 0.345 0.302
Jamey Carroll 2B 200.0 53.0 44.3 6.4 1.1 1.2 0.265 0.337 0.326 0.662 0.304 0.328
Jason Repko CF 175.0 40.9 24.9 11.5 1.4 3.0 0.234 0.286 0.367 0.653 0.288 0.275
Xavier Paul RF 175.0 46.1 30.3 9.1 0.3 6.4 0.263 0.326 0.429 0.755 0.330 0.297