Friday, October 10, 2014

Giants vs Cardinals - NLCS Game 1 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsCardinalsMadison BumgarnerAdam WainwrightCardinals3.233.3153.976.54

                                        Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsCardinalsOccurences                   RankGiantsCardinalsOccurences
1125198451075049
2235032052754734
3343724653474615
4213558754704435
5323454155824376
6013227156184193
7132921557764147
8312549358284038
9432518459814010
10022377660833931
11102360961573809
12242346662383513
13452270463843331
14422199064083204
15142159965802960
16202112966922800
17032018467482727
18411793168852682
19301646569782668
20041586570932550
21531563071192523
22251562972912518
23541531773292498
24151500774862225
25521492275582223
26351487276392169
27511301477942044
28401278578092016
29561240079901902
30051119680871814
316210140811021755
32261012682681728
3316996383491639
34639545841011635
3550920785951633
36369180862101542
37649084871101521
38618977881031498
39658413891041292
40467885903101269
4106776291591249
4217655792961221
43606550931001151
44726505940101148
4527629795891096
46736227961121046
47716142974101022
4867592498113988
493754689969985
50745384100105961
.
Note: Based off of 1 millions games simulated.
.

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 4 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersCardinalsClayton KershawShelby MillerDodgers3.922.7660.786.67


                                      Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1124414851055338
2234149052915095
3213862053754955
4323510754904731
5313149255924540
6343038156844019
7203019457274011
8102911258763885
9012810359373815
10302634860473596
11422534961933529
12412530462173481
13432442063063451
144021859641013286
15131945065853126
165119022661003098
17521884967573041
184518836681023019
19501739469942646
20241685770282496
21021666571782481
22531653472862383
235414567731032359
24611436574382322
25141352575182280
26621343776072261
276013409771112134
28631154278482015
290311246791102008
30351103480951972
312510801811121914
32561072082581872
33711054383871855
34709854841041703
3572967285291646
36649468861131553
3715882587391546
3865805588681449
3904786989961435
4073772990081426
41817302911211408
4280685392191396
4336684493491293
44826740941221289
45266625951201274
46746286961141210
47466189971051194
4816569898891134
4983539799591027
50675359100971018

Note 1 Million games simulated.
.

Monday, October 06, 2014

Dodgers vs Cardinals - NLDS Game 3 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total runs
DodgersCardinalsHyun-Jin RyuJohn LackeyDodgers4.193.4955.467.68

                                           Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrencesRankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
1233882051836124
2123376552276086
3343326853056039
4323161754376034
5212881055475888
6432566056845319
7312517557575116
8422410958175106
9452384359804806
10412033160924778
11131901261854552
12241876862914522
13521829163784397
14531822564934183
15201802965064139
16541771666384125
17011704167284077
18301649268863729
19101636969483644
20511588470943557
21561507571183431
22141484072903281
23351415073873256
24401381874583254
252513560751023213
26631317876072988
276213141771012982
280212817781032861
29611212979682841
30641197880952827
31501139481292720
32651101782392704
330310364831042451
34151014884962374
3572987285492336
36369756861002267
3726913087192175
38739129881122070
3971911689892067
40609003901112027
4146892191081987
42678511921131876
43748319931051872
4404803294591863
4516735095971842
46757211962101802
47826870973101752
4870678898691752
49816642994101545
507662131001141544


Note: Based off of 1 million games simulated.
.

Friday, October 03, 2014

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLDS Game 2 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
CardinalsDodgersLance LynnZach GreinkeDodgers3.104.0363.25727.13


                                       Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurrencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurrences
1234879851725686
2124613052745527
3343832053385360
4132909154085169
5012819455574980
6322662956754946
7212601357714623
8452584858764591
9242511159294503
10022396960194497
11142386261484250
12032208562604102
13432129763783833
14251951464833749
15311922065393733
16421854866093656
17041795067823631
18151755468583470
19351682169843444
205615098701103040
21101460671813005
225414223722102977
23411406673852967
24051403674492894
25531372175702691
26161292876862547
272012866770102459
282612832783102456
29521274579682456
30361211480932340
31061041281922240
32301024882942132
33511000083872127
3446960084592070
35279234851111945
36179133862111934
3763895987911862
38648693884101833
3962850289801802
4065833790951783
4137800091891694
42407863923111646
43677794930111591
4407760394691572
4561697695961471
46476924961031402
47186602971021352
48286319981121337
49505856995101305
507357491002121255

Chances of each team scoring X number of runs
Runs ScoredCardinalsDodgers
013.99%6.28%
117.27%11.66%
217.33%15.12%
314.72%15.90%
411.62%14.22%
58.57%11.43%
65.98%8.36%
74.04%5.85%
82.61%3.95%
91.62%2.65%
100.96%1.72%

Note: Based on 1 million games simulated

Cardinals vs Dodgers - NLDS Game 1 Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
CardinalsDodgersAdam WainwrightClayton KershawDodgers1.973.2769.7135.24


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankCardinalsDodgersOccurencesRankCardinalsDodgersOccurences
1013671151601531
2123655552471526
30227147530101353
4232624754721344
5032257855711331
6131991456381306
7211933357671306
8041689158731275
9101622559291201
103414714601101091
11141471161741071
1232136766257957
1305123086375903
14241169164011900
1520109946570897
1631107886648863
171596916739828
1806850268210769
194379796976744
202579007082740
214277917181722
224572347283709
2330666473111650
241666127484576
254165197558542
263555157649541
2707538177310517
282649767885507
2953423779211491
3040418580012457
315241538178454
321740748280430
335438258392409
3451381384112396
353637248591366
360834948686360
372731978793352
3856319488311349
391826868968336
4050248990410322
416224239159302
424624199287301
4363234493212293
446122679494293
4509215695013285
463721319690264
472820219795241
4864201698102224
496518199969218
50191718100411212

Note: Based off of 500,000 games simulated.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Brewers vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/15



AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSFave Win%Total RS
BrewersDodgersJimmy NelsonZach GreinkeDodgers2.9983.53359.25%6.531


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankBrewersDodgersOccurrencesRankBrewersDodgersOccurrences
12353145147510
21252475260496
33439255318491
42133775471486
53233325575436
61332665608428
70131865757421
82426905882386
90225065938383
101424626083367
114324206176362
120323816229356
134523466319350
143123296470322
154220746581311
161019186684303
172518936709275
180418026839274
194117556948248
202017407085248
213517157158242
221516507278233
235314967392224
245414957480214
2530143975110210
2652137976210209
270512037749208
285111767891207
292611637993185
3016113180310183
3156112581010176
323610718286176
33409848368162
34469098494159
35639038587153
366289086410137
37068148795136
386481488211135
392779289111131
40617699059130
41177679190126
426574392102120
435071193103117
440759394311116
453759295101112
467258796104106
47735509769103
48675419896102
4928524998994
507451810021288
.
Miscellaneous Notes:

1) The best defensive players on the Brewers are CF-Carlos Gomez, SS-Jean Segura and C-Jonathon Lucroy

2) Brewers 2B-Scooter Gennett can not hit left-handed pitching to save his life.  Rickie Weeks will hit for him if a LHP comes in to face him.

3) The Brewers have three former starting pitchers in their bullpen... Zach Duke (169 GS), Tom Gorzelanny (121 GS) and Marco Estrada (71 GS).

4) The Brewers have three holes in their bullpen... Marco Estrada, Jeremy Jeffress and Brandon Kintzler.

5) Brewers hitters do not draw very many walks... Lucroy and Reynolds are the only two who draw an average amount of walks.

6) Brewers starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson is probably better than projection systems currently give him credit for.



Sunday, July 13, 2014

Masahiro Tanaka At The All-Star Break


Here is a list of the Vegas odds of all 18 of Masahiro Tanaka's starts up to the All-Star break.

DateAwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveML FaveML DogTanaka Win%
4/4/2014NYATORMasahiro TanakaDerek McGowanNYA-12612155.26
4/9/2014BALNYAMiguel GonzalezMasahiro TanakaNYA-17516863.17
4/16/2014CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20018565.81
4/22/2014NYABOSMasahiro TanakaJon LesterBOS-11610647.39
4/27/2014LAANYAGarrett RichardsMasahiro TanakaNYA-15915461.01
5/3/2014TBNYAJake OdorizziMasahiro TanakaNYA-19518765.64
5/9/2014NYAMILMasahiro TanakaYovani GallardoNYA-12912455.85
5/14/2014NYANYNMasahiro TanakaRaul MonteroNYA-16515961.83
5/20/2014NYACHNMasahiro TanakaJason HammelNYA-15815360.86
5/25/2014NYACHAMasahiro TanakaAndre RienzoNYA-16415861.69
5/31/2014MINNYAKevin CorreiaMasahiro TanakaNYA-24823870.85
6/5/2014OAKNYADrew PomeranzMasahiro TanakaNYA-13712756.90
6/11/2014NYASEAMasahiro TanakaChris YoungNYA-18517564.29
6/17/2014TORNYAMarcus StromanMasahiro TanakaNYA-16716062.05
6/22/2014BALNYAChris TillmanMasahiro TanakaNYA-20219266.33
6/28/2014BOSNYAJon LesterMasahiro TanakaNYA-15014559.60
7/3/2014NYAMINMasahiro TanakaPhil HughesNYA-15014559.60
7/8/2014NYACLEMasahiro TanakaTrevor BauerNYA-14714259.10
.
.

Friday, July 04, 2014

Top 10 Biggest Road Favorites


In today's Dodgers vs Rockies game the Dodgers are a 65.6% favorite to win on the road. This is the largest road favorite of the year so far this season. Of course it is a game that a red-hot Clayton Kershaw is pitching in and the Rockies Jair Jurrjens isn't exactly the leagues best pitcher. This got me to thinking what the top ten list would look like for largest road favorites this year.  Kershaw and Strasburg appear twice on this list.

Here is the list

DateAwayHomeAway SPHome SPVegas FaveML FaveML DogVegas Win Exp
7/4/2014LANCOLClayton KershawJair JurrjensLAN-19818465.6%
5/2/2014SEAHOUFelix HernandezBrad PeacockSEA-18517564.3%
6/11/2014NYASEAMasahiro TanakaChris YoungNYA-18517564.3%
4/15/2014WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.6%
5/23/2014LANPHIClayton KershawRoberto HernandezLAN-17216562.8%
4/25/2014OAKHOUJesse ChavezBrad PeacockOAK-17116162.4%
3/31/2014WASNYNStephen StrasburgDillon GeeWAS-17215862.3%
5/3/2014STLCHNMichael WachaJake ArrietaSTL-16716062.0%
4/22/2014STLNYNAdam WainwrightDillon GeeSTL-16815862.0%
4/30/2014DETCHAMax ScherzerHector NoesiDET-16815862.0%
.