Thursday, April 17, 2014

Dbacks vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results


                                         *** Simulation Results ***

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
1125180951074922
2235139152474885
3343734653754410
4213568654184161
5323567055824142
6013145356284069
7133092057574015
8312610358703962
9432595959833839
10242531760763798
11022469161813719
12422352862383497
13142295063843253
14452269564082966
15102173765482724
16032072966292588
17201971867852526
18411938668922524
19251695969192512
20301634770802468
21531584771782418
22521579072932298
23351578073582240
24041568074912176
25151533875392112
26541527176861997
27511324777941911
28401230378091907
29561165479681694
30051135580491583
31261060781871566
321610415822101531
336210285831101521
34361000984901489
3563998985951464
36649017861021410
37618984871031292
38508868881011271
3946844189591245
40658121903101209
41067666910101144
4272663892961117
43276591931041071
4417657494211969
4573622095111930
466060219669928
477158619789928
4837577998410910
4967542699112841
50745414100100838

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/16


                                            *** Simulation Results ***

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDodgersGiantsOccurrencesRankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12344285175603
21239665276573
33437395382572
43234455406553
52130585557552
64328245683496
73125955770475
81325225828458
94224675981434
104523866038422
112423826184421
120120656285378
134120296392373
141418826407350
155418376518349
165217816648339
175317666778339
182517526893338
193517446980328
201017257058303
210216997186295
222016657291286
233015417387282
245614747429258
250314667539254
261513757608250
275113737768247
286312267894246
294012117995233
303611828019231
316211488149227
322611428259219
3304110383102211
3464109884103199
3565107685101196
364610138690193
376197787104174
381689588210166
39508888996161
407382390310159
41058209169146
427280192110143
432773393100134
447472194105134
45377169509132
467171296113132
47677069789131
486069398510128
49476579997128
5017621100111121

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/15


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDodgersGiantsOccurrencesRankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12349835107530
21248255275502
33435945374499
42134955428495
53234775518448
61330785657444
70128735782435
82425745838398
94325725976389
103125646083369
110224146170363
124223736208353
131423386348353
144521566481343
151021556584302
160320486629298
172019886719268
182518496878265
194118356980250
201516877039242
213516187185240
223015847258237
230415777309234
245215547491231
255314897592220
265414787693219
270512157786215
285612007868203
295111947994198
302611788049190
311611548187180
3240113082110167
333611078395164
3463102784210157
356294985103154
366488686310152
37468318790148
386180188101147
39657928959140
400678190102133
415077691410132
422768592211131
431768393010127
44726619496120
453764395104117
46605979689104
47475969711199
4873586989795
4967571996992
507154010031186

Disclaimer: 100K simulations.

Tuesday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Sorted by highest expected run totals.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
NYNARIJennry MejiaBronson ArroyoARI-12612155.269-1151059.04
SEATEXBlake BeavanRobbie RossTEX-13112656.249100-1108.83
BOSCHAJake PeavyEric JohnsonBOS-14013557.898.5-1101008.47
KCHOUYorbi VenturaLucas HarrelKC-15314860.088.5-1101008.47
TBBALJake OdorizziMiguel GonzalezTB-10610150.868.5100-1108.33
STLMILShelby MillerMarco EstradaMIL-11210752.278-1201108.11
CLEDETZach McAllisterAnibal SanchezDET-15915461.018-1151058.04
OAKLAADaniel StrailyGarrett RichardsLAA-11010551.818-1151058.04
TORMINBrandon MorrowPhil HughesTOR-12812355.658-1101007.97
CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20519566.678-105-1057.90
LANSFJosh BeckettTim LincecumSF-11310852.497.5-1151057.54
PITCINGerrit ColeMike LeakePIT-11110652.047.5100-1107.33
ATLPHIDavid HaleCliff LeePHI-15014559.607-1201107.11
COLSDJuan NicasioRobby ErlinSD-11811353.607-105-1056.90
WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.577105-1156.76

Game Listings: Sorted by largest favorite to win.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20519566.678-105-1057.90
WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.577105-1156.76
CLEDETZach McAllisterAnibal SanchezDET-15915461.018-1151058.04
KCHOUYorbi VenturaLucas HarrelKC-15314860.088.5-1101008.47
ATLPHIDavid HaleCliff LeePHI-15014559.607-1201107.11
BOSCHAJake PeavyEric JohnsonBOS-14013557.898.5-1101008.47
SEATEXBlake BeavanRobbie RossTEX-13112656.249100-1108.83
TORMINBrandon MorrowPhil HughesTOR-12812355.658-1101007.97
NYNARIJennry MejiaBronson ArroyoARI-12612155.269-1151059.04
COLSDJuan NicasioRobby ErlinSD-11811353.607-105-1056.90
LANSFJosh BeckettTim LincecumSF-11310852.497.5-1151057.54
STLMILShelby MillerMarco EstradaMIL-11210752.278-1201108.11
PITCINGerrit ColeMike LeakePIT-11110652.047.5100-1107.33
OAKLAADaniel StrailyGarrett RichardsLAA-11010551.818-1151058.04
TBBALJake OdorizziMiguel GonzalezTB-10610150.868.5100-1108.33

Note: Opening lines.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Monday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected run totals

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Exp Runs
NYNARIZack WheelerJosh CollmenterARI-12011554.029101-1118.81
SEATEXRoenis EliasColby LewisTEX-12211253.929105-1258.69
OAKLAAJesse ChavezHector SantiagoLAA-10910451.578-105-1057.90
ATLPHIErvin SantanaRoberto HernandezATL-12712255.468-102-1087.86
TBBALClay ArcherWei-Yin ChenTB-11210752.277.5-1151057.54
PITCINWandy RodriguezHomer BaileyCIN-11911453.817.5-1151057.54
STLMILLance LynnMatt GarzaMIL-11811353.607.5-1101007.47
WASMIAJordan ZimmermannBrad HandWAS-14013057.457.5-110-1107.40
COLSDJordan LylesEric StultsSD-11511052.947100-1106.83

Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Exp Runs
WASMIAJordan ZimmermannBrad HandWAS-14013057.457.5-110-1107.40
ATLPHIErvin SantanaRoberto HernandezATL-12712255.468-102-1087.86
NYNARIZack WheelerJosh CollmenterARI-12011554.029101-1118.81
SEATEXRoenis EliasColby LewisTEX-12211253.929105-1258.69
PITCINWandy RodriguezHomer BaileyCIN-11911453.817.5-1151057.54
STLMILLance LynnMatt GarzaMIL-11811353.607.5-1101007.47
COLSDJordan LylesEric StultsSD-11511052.947100-1106.83
TBBALClay ArcherWei-Yin ChenTB-11210752.277.5-1151057.54
OAKLAAJesse ChavezHector SantiagoLAA-10910451.578-105-1057.90

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Sunday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected run totals

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Runs
HOUTEXBrian OberholtzerMartin PerezTEX-17016362.489-1101008.97
BOSNYAFelix DoubrontIvan NovaNYA-10610150.869-1101008.97
LANARIDan HarenTrevor CahillLAN-11511052.948.5-1231138.65
MIAPHIHugo AlvarezKyle KendrickPHI-12712255.468.5-1221128.64
TORBALMark BuehrleUbaldo JimenezBAL-10910451.578.5-1201108.61
CLECHACorey KluberJose QuintanaCHA-11911453.818.5-107-1038.43
KCMINJason VargasKevin CorreiaKC-12311854.658.5-105-1058.40
PITMILCharlie MortonKyle LohseMIL-13012556.048.5110-1208.19
TBCINCarlos RamosTony CingraniCIN-13813357.548110-1207.69
NYNLAABartolo ColonC.J. WilsonLAA-14413958.597.5-105-1057.40
COLSFTyler ChatwoodTim HudsonSF-16716062.057.5100-1107.33
OAKSEAScott KazmirChris YoungOAK-13412456.337.5-105-1157.33
WASATLGio GonzalezAaron HarangWAS-11511052.947.5103-1137.28
CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.747-1121027.00
DETSDMax ScherzerTyson RossDET-14614158.936.5-105-1056.40


Game Listings: Ranked by largest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Runs
CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.747-1121027.00
HOUTEXBrian OberholtzerMartin PerezTEX-17016362.489-1101008.97
COLSFTyler ChatwoodTim HudsonSF-16716062.057.5100-1107.33
DETSDMax ScherzerTyson RossDET-14614158.936.5-105-1056.40
NYNLAABartolo ColonC.J. WilsonLAA-14413958.597.5-105-1057.40
TBCINCarlos RamosTony CingraniCIN-13813357.548110-1207.69
OAKSEAScott KazmirChris YoungOAK-13412456.337.5-105-1157.33
PITMILCharlie MortonKyle LohseMIL-13012556.048.5110-1208.19
MIAPHIHugo AlvarezKyle KendrickPHI-12712255.468.5-1221128.64
KCMINJason VargasKevin CorreiaKC-12311854.658.5-105-1058.40
CLECHACorey KluberJose QuintanaCHA-11911453.818.5-107-1038.43
LANARIDan HarenTrevor CahillLAN-11511052.948.5-1231138.65
WASATLGio GonzalezAaron HarangWAS-11511052.947.5103-1137.28
TORBALMark BuehrleUbaldo JimenezBAL-10910451.578.5-1201108.61
BOSNYAFelix DoubrontIvan NovaNYA-10610150.869-1101008.97

Note: Opening lines.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected total runs

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23


Game Listings: Ranked by biggest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46

Friday, April 11, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/12


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343461751176575
2233283852846564
3452906453106549
4432393454386505
5322346255826403
6122240256856367
7562147357286237
8541966258486122
9241867159055918
10421854460865846
11531750561505770
12351713062585766
13211651863875412
14131587164685264
15311517665815093
16521492566934814
17251470967184757
18651424768604755
19671395969394720
20641356770924573
21141355371064554
22411317172894546
23631306573944444
24461292274294406
25361268275494344
26621145676954013
27261144977593794
28151111178963765
29511075979703750
3074966980913554
3176962681073433
3273940382693393
33759392831033334
3437904784193329
35478932853103305
3601877586973216
37728652871023132
38618617881043130
39168595894103015
40578541902102984
4127849191792973
4278834692982922
4302807293802797
44037956941052707
45307658955102603
4620750796082592
47047063971012487
48406804981102327
49716804991132241
508367441009102235

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 4/11




                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores (1 million simualtions)
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343414251016435
2453047652206427
3232970853406408
4432395154586365
5562309755026263
6322240556176230
7542073457876201
8121884158036196
9421816659286157
10531786060685914
11241769361045724
12351743662505381
13671552963895214
14651541764105117
15521493365395008
16641447566934990
17251437167944943
18211432468054867
19311430969814744
20131356270494689
21461355871184648
22631342472604580
23361275073924564
24411244374294553
25141209875954438
26621151176594310
27261127477964086
28761043178064002
29511038879693831
30751028080973738
31741019781913505
3215998682703465
33739701833103463
3447967084983426
35789416851033394
36579386861043381
37379363874103320
3872879888793310
3927848389193244
40618465901023212
41168013912103197
42837104925102967
43847061931052948
4448695694072944
45856898959102710
4638683296802647
47306740971062608
48866540986102398
49826523991012371
507165181003112362