Monday, March 02, 2015

Oakland Athletics - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

There are many ways people attempt to determine the best batting order.  Some people try to arrange high on base percentage people at the top of the lineup followed by sluggers and then the rest of the crew and slap on a pitcher batting 9th (NL Team) and you are good to go.  Others try calculators where you enter in player stats and out pops the best lineups.  These are all fun and probably get you part of the way there but they are in NO WAY scientific enough to make much of a claim to what the top lineups might be.

The best way (in my opinion) to determine which lineup is the best is to actually trot out every single lineup and see which one wins the most games.  Of course you would have to hold the opponent constant, using the same starters, lineup and starting pitcher.  How hard could that be to do?  Let's see, with nine batters in a lineup you would only have 362,880 lineups to go through.  How long could that take to play over 350,000 baseball games.  You could probably filter those permutations down to 25,000 or so by limiting left handed batters from hitting back to back, limiting the pitcher (NL) to batting either 8th or 9th, plus a few other obvious things.  Even if you could narrow things down to just two lineups, you would still need to play more than one game to determine which one was better.  So how many samples/games would you need?  10? 20? or maybe an entire season (162) of games?  No.  You would need a lot more than that.  Try tens of thousands just to separate the bad lineups from the good and then try a million or two to compare the best lineups.

Well, I think it is pretty impossible to play thousands of games one time or a couple of games a million times.  Hypothetically, if one were able to play games with thousands of different lineups, thousands or millions of times against the exact same opponent then you would get a very good idea as to which lineups were the best.  This is where simulation comes in handy.  A simulator that could play actual baseball games, by actual baseball rules, taking into consideration the important facets of a real baseball game like speed, defense, pitchers getting tired the more pitches they throw, splits, hitter vs pitcher matchups and outcomes and throw in some good player projections like the ones available for free at Fangraphs and then maybe through the power of the computer you could plow through tens of thousands of likely lineups to determine the best ones.

Now, you would be able to test the synergy of batting certain groups of players next to each other.  You would be able to experiment with various types of hitters hitting in different spots.  In fact, you could just let the computer run through each lineup and let you know what the top ones were, even tabulating how many times each player showed up at each spot in the top lineups.  Now you would have a good list of top lineups and be able to measure how many wins a manager might be leaving on the table by using the lineup(s) that he used.  Wouldn't it be very worthwhile for a team to know what its best lineups might be?  Of course it would, especially considering that on the free agent market one win (or WAR) is typically worth around $7M.  For managers that might not want to hit certain batters in certain lineup spots for whatever reason, he could use the filtering option to only measure lineups that fit his parameters.

Well, now on to what my game simulator using Steamer hitting projections lists as the top fifty lineups for the 2015 Oakland Athletics.  I only looked at lineups against a right handed starting pitcher and took the nine most likely starters from the list at the Roster Resource website and I have of course used their most common lineup as one of the many (10,000+) lineups that I am looking at.  Along with the top fifty lineups, there is a table showing how many times each player shows up in each lineup spot and what the most common back to back slottings are as well as back to back to back slottings (think synergy here).

Summary:
The batting order frequency table tells a lot here.  If you were to piece together a lineup from only the frequency table you would likely come up with what is the second ranked optimal lineup.  The lineup listed from the Roster Resource website came in listed 34th.  I've ran a few of these now for various teams and the Athletics seem to have a very balanced lineup with no one player way better than the others not causing much of a spread between the top lineups.  I also purposely added a bad lineup to the bottom of the top 50 list just to see what the maximum spread for the team looks like.  According to the simulator, there are not a lot of wins for the Athletics manager to leave on the table vs RHP compared to some of the other teams.

                                          Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0
2Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.001
3Reddick-Crisp-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.016
4Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.042
5Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Davis0.067
6Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Reddick0.093
7Fuld-Crisp-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien0.094
8Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.103
9Reddick-Semien-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler0.107
10Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0.108
11Lawrie-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0.108
12Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Crisp-Fuld-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler0.109
13Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Vogt-Semien0.117
14Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Zobrist-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.123
15Zobrist-Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.14
16Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Fuld0.141
17Semien-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Crisp-Vogt0.146
18Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.146
19Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.152
20Fuld-Crisp-Butler-Davis-Semien-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Zobrist0.156
21Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Reddick0.156
22Reddick-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.159
23Crisp-Butler-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Vogt-Zobrist-Fuld0.175
24Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Lawrie-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.181
25Fuld-Crisp-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Butler0.191
26Reddick-Zobrist-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Crisp-Vogt-Butler0.192
27Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.192
28Crisp-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.195
29Crisp-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Davis0.204
30Crisp-Semien-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Fuld-Butler-Vogt0.209
31Crisp-Fuld-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Butler-Semien-Vogt0.210
32Crisp-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Fuld-Semien-Vogt-Butler-Reddick0.213
33Semien-Fuld-Lawrie-Reddick-Zobrist-Crisp-Vogt-Butler-Davis0.214
34Reddick-Crisp-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Lawrie-Semien-Fuld-Butler0.218
35Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.221
36Reddick-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Fuld-Semien-Crisp-Vogt-Butler0.222
37Crisp-Davis-Butler-Reddick-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.236
38Semien-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Fuld-Butler0.238
39Crisp-Vogt-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Butler-Reddick-Zobrist-Fuld0.242
40Crisp-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Davis0.244
41Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Semien-Vogt0.248
42Crisp-Butler-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.257
43Lawrie-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Crisp-Zobrist-Vogt-Semien-Reddick0.258
44Crisp-Reddick-Lawrie-Davis-Semien-Fuld-Butler-Zobrist-Vogt0.260
45Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie-Fuld-Crisp-Vogt-Semien-Butler0.263
46Crisp-Fuld-Butler-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Semien-Vogt-Zobrist0.267
47Crisp-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Semien-Zobrist-Fuld-Lawrie-Vogt0.283
48Fuld-Semien-Lawrie-Davis-Crisp-Reddick-Zobrist-Vogt-Butler0.284
49Crisp-Vogt-Zobrist-Davis-Lawrie-Reddick-Semien-Butler-Fuld0.294
50Crisp-Reddick-Butler-Davis-Zobrist-Lawrie-Vogt-Semien-Fuld0.294
BADVogt-Butler-Fuld-Crisp-Semien-Davis-Zobrist-Reddick-Lawrie1.419
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             Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Crisp21900134210
Reddick8107929104
Lawrie20251134410
Davis2582650004
Zobrist8923155332
Vogt040021114109
Semien53007101582
Butler02810141915
Fuld4800367814
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                    Synergy


   Back to Back Frequency Leaders
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
122LawrieDavis
220VogtSemien
320SemienFuld
420FuldButler
518ReddickLawrie
617CrispVogt
717DavisZobrist
816ZobristReddick
915ButlerReddick
1015FuldCrisp
1114ButlerDavis
1213VogtButler
1312ReddickZobrist
1411DavisLawrie
1511DavisSemien
1611ZobristVogt
1710ReddickCrisp
1810LawrieReddick
1910DavisCrisp
2010ButlerFuld

     Back To Back to Back Frequency Leaders
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
113VogtSemienFuld
213SemienFuldButler
312ReddickLawrieDavis
410ZobristReddickLawrie
58LawrieDavisSemien
68DavisZobristReddick
77CrispVogtSemien
87LawrieDavisCrisp
97LawrieDavisZobrist
106LawrieVogtSemien
116DavisLawrieReddick
126ZobristVogtSemien
136VogtButlerFuld
146SemienFuldCrisp
156ButlerReddickCrisp
166ButlerReddickZobrist
176ButlerDavisZobrist
186FuldButlerReddick
195CrispVogtButler
205LawrieReddickZobrist
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Thursday, February 26, 2015

LA Dodgers 2015 Preview

As the 2015 Major League Baseball season approaches, signs point to this year as a good season to be a LA Dodgers fan. The organization made the move to bring in former Oakland Athletics’ GM, Farhan Zaidi back in November, and are primed for another run this coming season.

The new general manager, along with the new president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman have had a very active off season thus far for their new club. After letting disgruntled shortstop Hanley Ramirez leave in free agency, they also agreed to pay $30 million of Matt Kemp’s salary in order to send the temperamental outfielder south to the San Diego Padres. In addition to those moves, they also traded for shortstop Jimmy Rollins and second baseman Howie Kendrick, two solid veterans with high character qualities that will pay dividends in the locker room. They also made a couple moves that many considered questionable, like the signing of Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, who are both talented pitchers but who have struggled with injuries throughout most their careers. Regardless, both should help bolster the back end of the Dodgers rotation this season.

Besides the new additions, LA is also returning some of the biggest star players in the game, Clayton Kershaw and Yasiel Puig. Kershaw is well on his way to becoming a living legend as he became only the third starting pitcher in the history of the game to lead their league in ERA for four straight seasons, and there’s little reason to doubt that he can make this season his fifth straight in leading the league in ERA.

Backing up Kershaw in the outfield is arguably the most dynamic player in the game today, Yasiel Puig. The exciting and explosive Cuban-born player continues to be one of the most entertaining players in the league. With his rocket arm that can throw runners out at home from the warning track, his blazing speed which makes any gap single into a potential double, and his acrobatic catches he makes on a routine basis, Puig is quickly becoming one of the best all-around players in the game.

With some new faces running the show this season for the Dodgers, and some solid additions to their club, the Dodgers are once again expected to be right in the thick of things come playoff time of the 2015 baseball season. Plenty of story lines to look forward to this year, especially Kershaw’s attempt to go for his fifth straight season leading the league in ERA. It’s a great year to be a fan of LA Dodgers baseball, and we look forward to another successful campaign for the upcoming season.

This article was brought you by the handicapping experts at Sports Information Traders. For 2015 MLB Picks and predictions as well as sports betting tips to help you get through this years Major League Baseball season.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Miami Marlins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Miami Marlins (vs RHP).  I started out with 15,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Stanton 8th or 9th or Dee Gordon cleanup etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.85 wins per 162 games which is a pretty wide range for a top 50 lineup list.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 1.65 wins/162 games behind (not good).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups.  The simulator is a program that I wrote in C/C++ and I have back tested it against Vegas odds in the past to make sure it is good.  The program plays actual games, with actual baseball rules and takes pretty much everything you can think of into consideration.  This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Marlins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  Once down to the top fifty lineups, I simulated each lineup 2 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                                             Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0
2Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.232
3Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.250
4Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.308
5Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.359
6Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.374
7Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.384
8Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.386
9Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.392
10Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.438
11Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.443
12Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.448
13Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.491
14Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.498
15Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.525
16Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.541
17Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.543
18Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.546
19Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.553
20Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.574
21Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.584
22Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.584
23Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher0.594
24Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.605
25Gordon-Yelich-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.613
26Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.633
27Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.641
28Gordon-Yelich-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.642
29Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.648
30Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.652
31Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.653
32Prado-Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.659
33Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Morse0.674
34Yelich-Gordon-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.678
35Yelich-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.685
36Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.688
37Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Stanton-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher-Ozuna0.704
38Ozuna-Gordon-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.723
39Ozuna-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.725
40Gordon-Morse-Prado-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.727
41Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Salta-Pitcher0.735
42Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Morse-Hechavarria-Pitcher-Salta0.741
43Gordon-Prado-Morse-Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.758
44Gordon-Yelich-Stanton-Ozuna-Prado-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.770
45Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Ozuna-Morse-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.771
46Prado-Gordon-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.775
47Yelich-Gordon-Morse-Stanton-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.775
48Yelich-Gordon-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Salta-Morse-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.799
49Gordon-Yelich-Prado-Morse-Ozuna-Stanton-Salta-Pitcher-Hechavarria0.810
50Gordon-Hechavarria-Prado-Stanton-Ozuna-Yelich-Morse-Salta-Pitcher0.855
   
MLBDCGordon-Yelich-Stanton-Morse-Prado-Ozuna-Salta-Hechavarria-pitcher1.648
BADSalta-Hechavarria-Morse-Gordon-Ozuna-Prado-Yelich-Stanton-Pitcher4.400


                  Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Gordon27220001000
Yelich171532121000
Prado26291120000
Stanton00122882000
Ozuna41362014101
Morse0233822804
Salta00000133151
Hechavarria0400098029
Pitcher00000003515


                    Synergy


20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
148SaltaPitcher
229PitcherHechavarria
327PradoStanton
423MorseSalta
519GordonPrado
618YelichGordon
717StantonOzuna
816GordonYelich
916HechavarriaGordon
1013OzunaMorse
1113OzunaSalta
1212PradoOzuna
1311StantonYelich
1411StantonMorse
1511HechavarriaSalta
1610HechavarriaYelich
179YelichPrado
189StantonPrado
199OzunaHechavarria
208YelichStanton
208MorseHechavarria
208PitcherGordon

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
128SaltaPitcherHechavarria
223MorseSaltaPitcher
316PitcherHechavarriaGordon
412OzunaSaltaPitcher
511GordonPradoStanton
611PradoStantonOzuna
711HechavarriaSaltaPitcher
810YelichGordonPrado
910HechavarriaYelichGordon
1010PitcherHechavarriaYelich
119GordonYelichPrado
129PradoStantonYelich
138StantonPradoOzuna
148SaltaPitcherGordon
158HechavarriaGordonYelich
167PradoStantonMorse
177OzunaMorseSalta
186YelichPradoStanton
196StantonYelichOzuna
206StantonOzunaMorse
206MorseHechavarriaSalta
206HechavarriaGordonPrado
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Dodgers Fantasy Outlook 2015

Author: Matt Smith

With one of the highest payrolls in the game, the Los Angeles Dodgers should be pretty competitive for the foreseeable future. However, for a franchise that has not won a World Series in over 25 years, being competitive is not enough. They have made some changes heading into the 2015 season to their roster, and the hope is that it is enough for regular and postseason success.

Even though they have a lot of fantasy baseball talent last season, nothing seemed to really click with the franchise consistently. They would play well in spurts, but then they would go on a cold streak. About the only dependable player on the roster was Clayton Kershaw, and ironically he became inconsistent as soon as the postseason began.

Andrew Feldman was brought in to help make better decisions in the front office for the Los Angeles Dodgers. With seemingly unlimited funds compared to what he was working with in Tampa Bay, it will be interesting to see what type of deals he pulls off in the future. Right away, he decided to go after veteran players who have championship pedigrees. Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick can still provide value in fantasy baseball, but they will be just as important in the locker room.

Joc Pederson might not be new to the franchise, but he will now take over as the new everyday center fielder for the franchise. Many look at him as one of the top youngsters in the game, so he will need to hit the ground running in 2015. The franchise specifically made room for him by trading away some pretty decent talent, so it will be interesting to see what he does with a little bit more pressure on him.

Not only has losing been tough for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the postseason, but watching the San Francisco Giants win 3 World Series in the last 5 seasons stings. Hopefully, with some subtle moves, this team will be a bit better when the games matter most.


Sunday, February 15, 2015

Minnesota Twins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Minnesota Twins.  I started out with 25,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Joe Mauer 8th or 9th etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.35 wins per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 0.59 wins/162 games behind (not bad).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Twins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.  The Twins have two left handed batters in the starting nine that I used.  For this exercise, I assumed that there was no restriction on batting the two left handed batters (Mauer, Arcia) back to back.  Obviously, if you add that restriction then 33 of these 50 lineups would be different.

                                               Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0
2Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.013
3Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.018
4Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter0.027
5Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.033
6Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.048
7Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.055
8Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki0.061
9Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.087
10Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki-Dozier0.097
11Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe0.101
12Hicks-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.105
13Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.106
14Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks0.109
15Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Santana-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe0.113
16Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Hunter0.117
17Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter0.119
18Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hunter0.120
19Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.123
20Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.136
21Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks0.143
22Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki0.147
23Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.151
24Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.155
25Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier0.160
26Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.161
27Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks0.183
28Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.186
29Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks-Dozier0.193
30Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter0.197
31Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.200
32Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe0.209
33Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks0.211
34Hicks-Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe0.222
35Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki0.226
36Dozier-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hunter-Hicks0.229
37Santana-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.230
38Arcia-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Dozier-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe0.231
39Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.236
40Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.242
41Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki0.242
42Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks0.247
43Santana-Hunter-Arcia-Mauer-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Hicks-Suzuki0.254
44Santana-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.263
45Hunter-Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.272
46Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.277
47Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Vargas-Hicks-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter0.282
48Dozier-Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe0.290
49Hicks-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.299
50Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe0.345
......
MLBSantana-Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Hicks0.587
BADSuzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Santana-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer1.714
.
.
           Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Santana32120015000
Mauer018201200000
Arcia10923161000
Vargas06191384000
Hunter5721591029
Plouffe000041314127
Hicks4100779913
Suzuki030004121714
Dozier8301975107
.
.
Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
133MauerArcia
222SantanaMauer
316MauerVargas
416ArciaVargas
515DozierSuzuki
614VargasMauer
714PlouffeDozier
814SuzukiHicks
913PlouffeHicks
1013HicksSuzuki
1112VargasArcia
1212SuzukiPlouffe
1311SantanaHunter
1411HunterSantana
1511HunterPlouffe
1611PlouffeSuzuki
1711HicksSantana
1811DozierSantana
1910SantanaVargas
2010ArciaPlouffe
2010SuzukiSantana

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
116MauerArciaVargas
213VargasMauerArcia
312MauerVargasArcia
411SantanaMauerArcia
511SantanaMauerVargas
69SantanaVargasMauer
78HunterSantanaMauer
88DozierSantanaMauer
97PlouffeDozierSuzuki
106MauerArciaDozier
116PlouffeHicksSuzuki
126PlouffeSuzukiHicks
136SuzukiHicksSantana
145MauerArciaPlouffe
155HunterMauerArcia
165SuzukiPlouffeHicks
175SuzukiDozierSantana
185DozierSuzukiHicks
194SantanaHunterMauer
204ArciaVargasHunter
.
.

Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

.
I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays.  I started out with over 100,000 permutations of lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups. For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems.  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.bbThe simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. Sure, the Blue Jays manager won't use many of these lineups because they might not be prototypical but that is not part of the exercise.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                                          Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Saunders-Pompey-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin0.000
2Izturis-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Martin-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro0.030
3Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Martin-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis0.038
4Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis-Martin0.058
5Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.070
6Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.077
7Saunders-Pompey-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Martin-Navarro0.079
8Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Pompey0.106
9Martin-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis0.125
10Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Saunders-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.148
11Saunders-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro-Martin0.158
12Saunders-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin0.175
13Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Izturis-Pompey0.181
14Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin0.186
15Reyes-Saunders-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis0.197
16Pompey-Reyes-Izturis-Bautista-Encarnacion-Saunders-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin0.199
17Reyes-Encarnacion-Martin-Bautista-Saunders-Navarro-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis0.201
18Izturis-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Saunders-Martin-Pompey-Navarro0.212
19Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Navarro-Martin-Donaldson-Pompey0.214
20Saunders-Izturis-Martin-Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro0.222
21Saunders-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Izturis-Pompey0.226
22Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Martin-Izturis-Navarro0.228
23Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Martin-Navarro0.239
24Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Martin-Donaldson-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro0.240
25Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis-Martin0.240
26Reyes-Encarnacion-Martin-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Saunders-Izturis0.249
27Saunders-Pompey-Bautista-Encarnacion-Reyes-Izturis-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin0.254
28Reyes-Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Navarro-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis0.265
29Saunders-Reyes-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Donaldson-Izturis-Navarro0.275
30Pompey-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Saunders-Navarro-Izturis0.281
31Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Donaldson-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey0.291
32Donaldson-Pompey-Bautista-Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Navarro-Martin0.293
33Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Bautista-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.296
34Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro0.300
35Saunders-Pompey-Bautista-Encarnacion-Martin-Donaldson-Reyes-Navarro-Izturis0.301
36Bautista-Saunders-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Reyes-Martin-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis0.309
37Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.310
38Donaldson-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Saunders-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis0.313
39Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Reyes-Saunders-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey0.333
40Pompey-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Navarro0.338
41Bautista-Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Reyes-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis0.338
42Izturis-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Pompey-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin0.340
43Reyes-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Saunders-Navarro-Izturis0.352
44Encarnacion-Reyes-Bautista-Donaldson-Saunders-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis0.362
45Reyes-Navarro-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Donaldson-Izturis-Pompey-Martin0.362
46Encarnacion-Saunders-Donaldson-Bautista-Reyes-Martin-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey0.363
47Donaldson-Saunders-Izturis-Bautista-Reyes-Pompey-Encarnacion-Navarro-Martin0.367
48Donaldson-Saunders-Izturis-Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Pompey-Navarro-Martin0.394
49Reyes-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Saunders-Encarnacion-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis0.417
50Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Saunders-Martin-Navarro-Pompey0.442
..  
BADNavarro-Izturis-Reyes-Saunders-Pompey-Martin-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista2.125

              Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Saunders161601104210
Reyes161800141100
Encarnacion32191833200
Bautista40142650100
Donaldson4325148950
Pompey35000186108
Izturis32701512614
Navarro010006112210
Martin1380356618
.
.
Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
120EncarnacionBautista
219NavarroMartin
317PompeyNavarro
415EncarnacionDonaldson
514DonaldsonPompey
613BautistaEncarnacion
712ReyesIzturis
812BautistaReyes
911SaundersReyes
1011ReyesSaunders
1111PompeyIzturis
1211IzturisNavarro
1310ReyesEncarnacion
1410BautistaSaunders
1510DonaldsonNavarro
169IzturisReyes
179NavarroIzturis
188DonaldsonMartin
198NavarroPompey
208MartinDonaldson
208MartinIzturis

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
18BautistaEncarnacionDonaldson
26DonaldsonNavarroMartin
36PompeyNavarroIzturis
46NavarroMartinIzturis
55SaundersReyesIzturis
65ReyesSaundersBautista
75ReyesEncarnacionBautista
85ReyesBautistaEncarnacion
95ReyesIzturisEncarnacion
105EncarnacionBautistaSaunders
115EncarnacionBautistaReyes
125EncarnacionDonaldsonPompey
135DonaldsonPompeyIzturis
145DonaldsonPompeyNavarro
155PompeyIzturisNavarro
165PompeyNavarroMartin
175IzturisNavarroMartin
185MartinReyesSaunders
195MartinEncarnacionBautista
204SaundersBautistaEncarnacion

                                 Analysis

Saunders:  Hits left-handed and does well against RHP.  Has decent speed and power and the simulator likes him hitting either first or second and can live with him hitting fifth as well.

Reyes:  Switch hitter with good speed and doesn't strike-out a lot.  Has a nearly identical lineup profile as Saunders does.

Encarnacion:  Good power and draws a nice amount of walks.  The simulator likes him hitting either third or fourth but also makes an appearance at each lineup spot 1 thru 7.

Bautista:  Great power and draws a lot of walks.  Here is your cleanup hitter.  If not cleanup can also fit in as the #3 hitter.

Donaldson:  Like many of the players to follow, the simulator shows Donaldson with a lot of lineup position diversity.  His best spot is fifth but also shines at 6th and 7th.  Donaldson hits for good power but doesn't hit RHP real well (compared to LHP).

Pompey:  Good speed and will clear the bases with an occasional triple.  The simulator likes him hitting 6th the most but can find a good lineup to fit in at any of the non traditional power spots (3-4-5).

Izturis:  Doesn't do anything real well on the offensive side but the simulator find him doing the least amount of damage batting either ninth or seventh and surprisingly finds his way to the third spot in seven of the top fifty lineups.

Navarro:  Definitely the turtle of the team, the simulator likes him batting 8th though it can live with him in the sixth thru ninth spots.  While a switch hitter, Navarro does much better historically against LHP.

Martin:  Makes three appearances in seven different lineup spots on the top fifty lineup chart.  Though the simulator does like Martin hitting 9th, almost as a second leadoff hitter.

............................................................................................................................

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

San Francisco Giants - 2015 Most Optimal Lineup

.
I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 San Francisco Giants.  I started out with over 2,000 permutations of lineups, a group that was filtered to remove such things as left handed hitters hitting back to back or the pitcher not hitting 8th or 9th etc... and I slowly widdled it down to the top 25 lineups.  I also compared the best lineup against the lineup that MLB Depth Charts (0.40 wins/162 games worse) shows as a likely lineup and also one of the worst lineups to see what kind of spread there is.  The top 25 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems.  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors.  It is not like Joe Panik's mom is going to be calling up Giants management in tears asking for Joe not to bat 4th because he is going to have to change his approach at the plate.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups.  Sure, the Giants manager won't use many of these lineups because they might not be prototypical but that is not part of the exercise.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 25 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                          Top 25 Optimal Lineups

RankLineupWins behind/162 games
1Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford0.000
2Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford0.027
3Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Panik0.060
4Aoki-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher0.116
5Crawford-Pagan-Belt-Posey-Aoki-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher0.239
6Pence-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pagan-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford0.247
7Aoki-Pagan-Belt-Posey-Panik-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher0.258
8Aoki-Pagan-Belt-Posey-Crawford-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher0.263
9Belt-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Aoki-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher0.277
10Pence-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pagan-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford0.286
11Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Panik-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Belt0.294
12Aoki-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Crawford-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher0.296
13Crawford-Pagan-Panik-Posey-Aoki-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher0.301
14Aoki-Pence-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pagan-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher0.321
15Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Crawford-Pence-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Panik0.325
16Pagan-Aoki-Pence-Panik-Posey-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford0.327
17Pagan-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pence-Aoki-McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford0.357
18Belt-Pence-Crawford-Posey-Aoki-Pagan-Panik-McGeHee-Pitcher0.360
19Aoki-Pagan-Panik-Pence-Belt-Posey-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher0.361
20Crawford-Pagan-Panik-Pence-Aoki-Posey-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher0.393
21Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Crawford-Pitcher0.400
22Pence-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pagan-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Panik0.407
23Pagan-Panik-Posey-Belt-Pence-Crawford-McGeHee-Pitcher-Aoki0.428
24Crawford-Pence-Panik-Posey-Aoki-Pagan-Belt-McGeHee-Pitcher0.442
25Pagan-Aoki-Posey-Belt-Pence-Panik-McGeHee-Crawford-Pitcher0.442
..

BadMcGeHee-Belt-Pagan-Aoki-Pence-Panik-Crawford-Posey-Pitcher2.438

             Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Pagan19170059000
Aoki17170193102
Posey03241724000
Belt31814108402
Pence47281811000
Panik0514728806
McGeHee00010324211
Crawford70224413810
Pitcher00000002129

Synergy
20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences in Lineup:
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
137McGeHeePitcher
222PaganPanik
322PoseyBelt
419AokiPosey
518PitcherAoki
617AokiPagan
717BeltPence
817PitcherCrawford
916PenceBelt
1016PanikMcGeHee
1115PaganAoki
1215PanikPosey
1313BeltMcGeHee
1413CrawfordPagan
1513CrawfordPitcher
1612PencePanik
1712PanikPence
1812CrawfordMcGeHee
1911McGeHeeCrawford
2010AokiPence
2010PoseyPanik
2010BeltPagan
2010BeltPosey

10 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences in Lineup:
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
117McGeHeePitcherCrawford
215PoseyBeltPence
312PaganAokiPosey
412PanikMcGeHeePitcher
512McGeHeePitcherAoki
612CrawfordMcGeHeePitcher
712PitcherAokiPagan
811PaganPanikPosey
911AokiPaganPanik
1011McGeHeeCrawfordPitcher
1011PitcherCrawfordPagan


                                      Analysis

Pagan:  The simulator likes the switch hitting Pagan batting first or second in the lineup.  There are a couple of permutations where the simulator likes Pagan batting sixth but he seems best suited for the top of the lineup which is where he is likely to bat in reality.

Aoki:  Like Pagan, the simulator pegs Aoki at one of the first two spots in the lineup with the occasional drop to fifth.  There are even two appearances in the top 50 lineups with Aoki batting 9th.

Posey:  The Giants will get the most bang for their buck with Posey hitting third or fourth which is really the only two spots the Giants would ever hit him in.

Belt:  Shows up in many different lineup spots with second thru sixth being the best spots for him.  Belt finds himself paired either in front of or immediately after Pence in the lineup in 33 of the top 50 lineups.  The threesome of Posey-Belt-Pence show up as the second most likely consecutive trio in the top lineups.

Pence:  Finds himself all over the radar on the first six lineup spots with fifth and sixth being his best spots.  Which is pretty much in line where Pence expects to bat in the 2015 lineup.

Panik:  Appears all over the place in the top 50 lineups.  The only two spots he doesn't appear in is leadoff and eighth.  Panik makes more than a few surprise appearances in the middle of the lineup in the top list which may come as a surprise.  The Giants won't likely bat him in the middle of the lineup but the simulator does not take into account psychological reasons (like experience) for not batting a player in a certain spot.  With the L-R-L requirement Panik ends up all over the place.

McGeHee:  Looks to be a solid fit at the seventh and eighth spots as a late source of power in the lineup before the black hole of the pitcher bats.  McGeHee-Pitcher is the number one most common consecutive batting duo in the lineup and McGeHee-Pitcher-Crawford is the number one most common threesome.

Crawford:  He shows up all over the place but is a best fit hitting seventh, eighth, ninth or leadoff.

Pitcher: The pitcher shows up hitting eighth in 42% of the top lineups.  Most MLB managers will not hit the pitcher eighth for psychological reasons but if done correctly with the right personnel and lineup construction it is a good thing.