Thursday, May 31, 2012

Brewers vs Dodgers - May 31st Simulation Results





Here is a peak into some of the output capabilities of my simulator. This is the box score output from today's (5/31) Brewers vs Dodgers game. This simulation was done a couple of hours before the lineups were known, but it shouldn't make too big of a difference.

Pitching
NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Zach Greinke6.5996.9581.6876.3360.271103.432.393
John Axford0.4870.6250.1560.3950.0147.7411.965
Francisco Rodriguez0.4230.4190.1520.4140.0236.8373.015
Jose Veras0.5670.5750.2430.5520.0299.3793.127
Kameron Loe0.2440.1900.0720.2600.0143.8453.26
Manny Parra0.1760.1770.0650.1700.0092.8522.961
Tim Dillard0.3010.2440.1060.3230.0204.8523.488
Wily Peralta0.0970.0720.0410.1080.0071.6023.970
Chad Billingsley6.5435.9301.4446.6700.476101.0412.995
Kenley Jansen0.4460.8000.1150.2630.0277.0021.183
Josh Lindblom0.4440.5060.1170.4050.0406.9702.871
Javy Guerra0.6170.6200.2140.5810.0299.8682.834
Scott Elbert0.2610.3010.0730.2350.0224.1172.835
Ronald Belisario0.1360.1310.0520.1310.0092.1983.252
Todd Coffey0.5820.5730.2020.5650.0419.3463.182
Jamey Wright0.3050.3350.1190.2860.0214.9913.078


Hitting
NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Corey Hart4.4071.1770.7400.2880.0100.1390.3850.2861.1450.323
Norichika Aoki4.2541.1490.7960.240.0210.0920.3510.3290.8830.319
Ryan Braun4.2201.2680.8600.2420.0140.1520.5360.2750.9480.354
Aramis Ramirez4.1581.1180.7320.2900.0110.0850.4530.2390.7850.312
George Kottaras3.9870.9770.7230.2220.0050.0270.3030.3420.8380.285
Ricky Weeks3.8920.9540.6370.2290.0150.0730.3800.2901.1310.295
Cody Ransom3.9010.9250.6580.2130.0150.0380.3280.1740.9680.265
Nyjer Morgan3.7041.0910.7890.2350.0190.0480.3640.2790.7110.333
Pitchers Spot3.7470.4750.3890.0760.0020.0090.1570.1221.7860.143
Tony Gwynn4.2481.1180.7640.2570.0660.0310.2710.2810.9010.303
Bobby Abreu3.9391.0540.7100.2590.0150.0700.3450.4541.0480.329
Andre Ethier3.9571.0910.7100.2760.0120.0940.4240.3891.030.337
Jerry Hairston Jr.3.9980.9810.6910.2350.0110.0440.3420.2120.9360.311
James Loney3.7851.0670.7110.2850.0090.0630.4060.3560.7310.334
A.J. Ellis3.7210.9220.6930.1920.0090.0280.3180.2710.9830.282
Elian Herrera3.6760.9670.6640.2470.0290.0270.3060.2160.8700.297
Dee Gordon3.5750.9680.6870.2290.0290.0230.3520.2170.7500.303
Pitchers Spot3.5560.3890.3160.0630.0030.0070.1610.1272.0090.128

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

May 31st Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VegasWin Probability
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegasSimulatorUnits Bet
DETBOSMax Scherzer vs Josh BeckettBOS57.17%52.62%---
MILLANZach Greinke vs Chad BillingsleyMIL53.16%51.06%---
HOUCOLBud Norris vs Jeremy GuthrieCOL52.94%57.06%---

Wednesday's Results: -0.6 units
Current ROI: 5.47%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

May 30th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VegasWin Probability
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegasSimulatorUnits Bet
CHATBJose Quintana vs Alex CobbTB58.07%55.66%CHA, 0.3
DETBOSDrew Smyly vs Jon LesterBOS57.89%52.94%DET, 0.8
KCCLEBruce Chen vs Jeanmar GomezCLE54.02%49.63%KC, 0.7
MILLANYovanni Gallardo vs Chad BillingsleyLAN59.76%58.41%---
NYALAAIvan Nova vs Ervin SantanaLAA52.04%49.01%NYA, 0.5
SEATEXBlake Beavan vs Derek HollandTEX69.70%73.59%TEX, 1.4
STLATLKyle Lohse vs Tim HudsonATL52.94%56.42%ATL, 0.6
WASFLAChienMing Wang vs Josh JohnsonFLA61.83%61.59%---
OAKMINTyson Ross vs Francisco LirianoMIN52.49%57.24%MIN, 0.9
SDCHNAnthony Bass vs Ryan DempsterCHN55.85%56.33%---
CINPITJohnny Cueto vs A.J. BurnettCIN54.85%51.69%PIT, 0.5
BALTORJason Hammel vs Brandon MorrowTOR56.62%50.00%BAL, 0.9
PHINYNCliff Lee vs Dillon GeePHI56.62%54.76%NYN, 0.3
HOUCOLLucas Harrell vs Chris FriedrichCOL59.10%62.58%COL, 0.7
ARISFIan Kennedy vs Tim LincecumSF54.65%64.55%SF, 1.4

Tuesday's Results: +5.6 units
Current ROI: 5.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Monday, May 28, 2012

May 29th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Units
CHATBPhil Humber vs James ShieldsTB60.55%57.24%1.0
DETBOSJustin Verlander vs Daniel BardDET59.60%56.25%1.0
KCCLEWil Smith vs Justin MastersonCLE59.60%55.81%1.1
MILLANMichael Fiers vs Nathan EovaldiLAN52.94%56.08%1.1
NYALAAAndy Pettitte vs Dan HarenLAA55.85%53.84%0.5
SEATEXJason Vargas vs Scott FeldmanTEX64.85%65.77%0.3
STLATLJake Westbrook vs Randall DelgadoSTL51.10%48.50%0.8
SDCHNEric Stults vs Jeff SamardzijaCHN60.24%59.77%0.9
CINPITHomer Bailey vs Charlie MortonCIN53.60%56.22%---
BALTORJake Arrieta vs Ricky RomeroTOR57.36%52.18%1.7
PHINYNJoe Blanton vs Jeremy HefnerPHI51.10%50.28%---
WASFLAEdwin Jackson vs Anibal SanchezFLA57.36%59.46%0.8
OAKMINJarrod Parker vs Cole DeVriesOAK50.74%48.64%0.3
ARISFJoe Saunders vs Ryan VogelsongSF54.02%60.64%2.7

Current ROI: 4.65%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Sunday, May 27, 2012

May 27th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CLECHAUbaldo Jimenez vs Gavin FloydCHATBD56.86%TBD
COLCINJamie Moyer vs Mat LatosCINTBD61.78%TBD
HOULANJ.A. Happ vs Chris CapuanoLANTBD61.06%TBD
TBBOSJeremy Hellickson vs Clay BuchholzBOSTBD52.96%TBD
TORTEXKyle Drabek vs Yu DarvishTEXTBD69.39%TBD
WASATLGio Gonzalez vs Brandon BeachyWASTBD50.68%TBD
SDNYNEdinson Volquez vs R.A. DickeyNYNTBD54.01%TBD
SFFLAMatt Cain vs Ricky NolascoFLATBD50.68%TBD
CHNPITMatt Garza vs Erik BedardPITTBD56.35%TBD
KCBALLuke Hochevar vs Brian MatuszBALTBD56.48%TBD
DETMINRick Porcello vs P.J. WaltersDETTBD52.03%TBD
PHISTLRoy Halladay vs Adam WainwrightSTLTBD51.21%TBD
NYAOAKHiroki Kuroda vs Tom MiloneNYATBD50.68%TBD
LAASEAC.J. Wilson vs Hector NoesiLAATBD59.15%TBD
MILARIRandy Wolf vs Daniel HudsonARITBD54.49%TBD

Current ROI: 4.65%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Has Clayton Kershaw Been Unlucky?




There has been some online discussion about Clayton Kershaw being unlucky in the sense that the opposing starting pitchers he has faced have pitched really well. Much better than opposing pitchers have done against other Dodgers starting pitchers.

Eric Stephen at True Blue LA pointed out in his article (linked in previous paragraph) that Kershaw's opposing starting pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 and have pitched a Quality Start in 7 of 9 games, while opposing pitchers facing any other Dodgers starter have only gotten quality starts in 17 of 35 games.

This got me interested in digging a little deeper from a different perspective at this research. What I would like to do is account for the talent level of the opposing pitchers Kershaw has faced (in the 2012 season). Maybe Kershaw has faced better pitchers on average than the rest of the Dodgers staff. What I did is looked at the Vegas odds and expected run totals of all games that Clayton Kershaw pitched in. From this I can compute how many runs the Dodgers and their opponents were expected to score in games that Kershaw started in. This also adds bullpens in to the mix, which I will get to a little later. Here is what I've found.

Number of Kershaw starts: 10
Dodgers runs scored in games Kershaw starts: 36
Dodgers opponents runs scored in games Kershaw starts: 25
Dodgers record in games Kershaw starts: 7-3, 0.700
Dodgers pythagorean in games Kershaw starts: 0.675

Now some Vegas numbers...

Dodgers expected runs in games Kershaw started: 36.5
Dodgers opponents expected runs in games Kershaw started: 27.4
Dodgers expected record in games Kershaw started: 6.4-3.6, 0.640

So the Dodgers have actually done a little better according to Vegas compared to what they've actually done (won 0.6 more games than expected). But what about those opposing pitchers. You would expect to see the Dodgers actual runs scored to be much lower than the Vegas expected runs scored. But what we see is that the Dodgers have only scored a half a run less than what was expected. On the otherhand, the Dodgers have given up 2.4 more runs than expected in Kershaw starts. So the problem, if there is one... is that the Dodgers are giving up too many runs in Kershaw starts. That could be from Kershaw himself, the bullpen or the defense. So it doesn't really appear that the Dodgers are scoring a significantly less amount of runs than expected in games that Kershaw starts. Whether that be off of the opposing starting pitcher or the opposing bullpen.

The next step here would be to repeat this study for the games in which Kershaw did not start.

For reference here is how the Dodgers bullpen has done in games that Kershaw has started:

DateStart #OppIPHERRSOBBHRERAFIP
4/5/20121@ SD63334214.505.03
4/10/20122vs PIT21003000.000.20
4/15/20123vs SD3.672002300.004.56
4/21/20124@ HOU21111304.506.70
4/27/20125vs WAS10001000.001.20
5/2/20126@ COL123323127.0021.20
5/8/20127vs SF11000000.003.20
5/14/20128vs ARI21111014.508.70
5/19/20129vs STL00000000.000.00
5/25/201210vs HOU22002300.005.70
Total20.671388161433.485.57

Saturday, May 26, 2012

May 26th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CLECHADerek Lowe vs Jake PeavyCHA61.09%57.69%TBD
COLCINJeremy Guthrie vs Mike LeakeCIN57.26%55.57%TBD
HOULANBud Norris vs Chad BillingsleyLAN52.61%56.58%TBD
TBBOSDavid Price vs Josh BeckettBOS51.92%50.54%TBD
TORTEXHenderson Alvarez vs Colby LewisTEX61.98%65.33%TBD
WASATLStephen Strasburg vs Mike MinorWAS52.38%53.03%TBD
DETMINMax Scherzer vs Carl PavanoDET56.71%50.91%TBD
NYAOAKC.C. Sabathia vs Bartolo ColonNYA61.69%58.00%TBD
KCBALFelipe Paulino vs Wei-Yin ChenBAL52.83%57.06%TBD
SDNYNClayton Richard vs Johan SantanaNYN60.00%61.15%TBD
SFFLAMadison Bumgarner vs Mark BuehrleFLA51.92%54.05%TBD
LAASEAJerome Williams vs Felx HernandezSEA55.75%54.97%TBD
CHNPITPaul Maholm vs Kevin CorreiaPIT53.27%54.13%TBD
PHISTLKyle Kendrick vs Jaime GarciaSTL60.00%63.75%TBD
MILARIZach Greinke vs Wade MileyMIL52.61%65.07%TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Thursday, May 24, 2012

May 25th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CLECHAJeanmar Gomez vs Jose QuintanaCLE51.81%51.76%TBD
COLCINChris Friedrich vs Johnny CuetoCIN60.86%61.40%TBD
HOULANLucas Harrell vs Clayton KershawLAN68.25%64.99%TBD
TBBOSAlex Cobb vs Jon LesterBOS59.60%59.75%TBD
TORTEXBrandon Morrow vs Derek HollandTEX56.62%60.56%TBD
WASATLRoss Detwiler vs Tim HudsonATL60.55%55.98%TBD
CHNPITRyan Dempster vs A.J. BurnettPIT53.16%53.22%TBD
KCBALBruce Chen vs Jason HammelBAL56.80%59.49%TBD
SDNYNAnthony Bass vs Dillon GeeNYN53.16%51.37%TBD
SFFLATim Lincecum vs Josh JohnsonFLA57.54%56.11%TBD
DETMINDrew Smyly vs Anthony SwarzakDET56.80%51.86%TBD
PHISTLCliff Lee vs Kyle LohsePHI53.16%44.36%TBD
MILARIYovanni Gallardo vs Ian KennedyARI54.44%46.48%TBD
NYAOAKIvan Nova vs Tyson RossNYA57.36%52.76%TBD
LAASEAErvin Santana vs Blake BeavanLAA54.65%52.41%TBD

Current ROI: 5.62%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

May 24th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLCINRandall Delgado vs Homer BaileyCIN52.27%53.55%TBD
DETCLEJustin Verlander vs Justin MastersonDET60.40%52.21%TBD
MINCHACole DeVries vs Phil HumberCHA58.59%56.50%TBD
SDNYNEric Stults vs Jeremy HefnerNYN54.44%50.80%TBD
SFFLARyan Vogelsong vs Anibal SanchezFLA60.55%59.81%TBD
PHISTLJoe Blanton vs Jake WestbrookSTL59.27%56.66%TBD
LAASEADan Haren vs Jason VargasLAA52.04%57.67%TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

May 23rd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLCINTommy Hanson vs Bronson ArroyoATL53.81%53.72%TBD
BOSBALDaniel Bard vs Jake ArrietaBOS52.04%42.73%TBD
DETCLEDoug Fister vs Zach McAllisterDET52.94%51.21%TBD
MINCHAScott Diamond vs Chris SaleCHA59.92%58.74%TBD
TORTBRicky Romero vs James ShieldsTB53.38%53.74%TBD
NYNPITJohn Niese vs Charlie MortonPIT51.57%46.32%TBD
SFMILBarry Zito vs Marco EstradaMIL55.26%57.19%TBD
LAAOAKJered Weaver vs Jarrod ParkerLAA59.76%55.55%TBD
LANARITed Lilly vs Joe SaundersARI50.74%52.64%TBD
TEXSEAScott Feldman vs Kevin MillwoodTEX59.43%58.05%TBD
KCNYAWil Smith vs Andy PettitteNYAOffline63.13%TBD
WASPHIEdwin Jackson vs Cole HamelsPHI59.92%59.77%TBD
COLFLAAlex White vs Carlos ZambranoFLA58.93%52.54%TBD
CHNHOUJeff Samardzija vs Wandy RodriguezHOU54.85%55.35%TBD
SDSTLJeff Suppan vs Lance LynnSTL66.89%64.57%TBD


Current ROI: 5.81%

Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Monday, May 21, 2012

May 22nd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLCINBrandon Beachy vs Mat LatosATL52.94%52.49%TBD
DETCLERick Porcello vs Ubaldo JimenezCLE52.27%55.24%TBD
MINCHAP.J. Walters vs Gavin FloydCHA62.19%58.23%TBD
TORTBDrew Hutchison vs Matt MooreTB55.85%53.14%TBD
BOSBALFelix Doubront vs Brian MatuszBOS54.23%42.79%TBD
KCNYALuke Hochevar vs Phil HughesNYA63.17%56.14%TBD
NYNPITR.A. Dickey vs James McDonaldPIT55.06%52.15%TBD
WASPHIJordan Zimmerman vs Roy HalladayPHI59.10%60.63%TBD
COLFLAJuan Nicasio vs Ricky NolascoFLA55.26%NATBD
CHNHOUTravis Wood vs J.A. HappHOU54,44%52.81%TBD
SFMILMatt Cain vs Shaun MarcumMIL50.25%53.57%TBD
SDSTLEdinson Volquez vs Adam WainwrightSTL60.40%56.07%TBD
LANARIAaron Harang vs Trevor CahillARI57.72%48.63%TBD
LAAOAKC.J. Wilson vs Graham GodfreyLAA60.24%56.18%TBD
TEXSEAMatt Harrison vs Hector NoesiTEX61.94%63.66%TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

May 21st Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ATLCINMike Minor vs Homer BaileyCIN51.57%54.23%TBD
TORTBKyle Drabek vs Jeremy HellicksonTB58.76%55.71%TBD
BOSBALClay Buchholz vs Tommy HunterBOS52.72%42.73%TBD
KCNYAFelipe Paulino vs Hiroki KurodaNYA61.83%60.65%TBD
NYNPITJohan Santana vs Erik BedardPIT50.74%55.75%TBD
WASPHIGio Gonzalez vs Kyle KendrickWAS53.16%51.62%TBD
COLFLAJamie Moyer vs Mark BuehrleFLA61.54%NATBD
CHNHOUMatt Garza vs Bud NorrisHOU50.62%49.48%TBD
SFMILMadison Bumgarner vs Randy WolfSF50.62%44.71%TBD
SDSTLClayton Richard vs Jaime GarciaSTL63.57%64.66%TBD
LANARIChris Capuano vs Pat CorbinARI51.10%57.24%TBD
LAAOAKJerome Williams vs Tom MiloneOAK51.57%54.65%TBD
TEXSEAYu Darvish vs Felx HernandezTEX57.89%56.44%TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets today.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 20, 2012

May 20th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAASDErvin Santana vs Anthony BassSD53.60%49.56%TBD
ARIKCWade Miley vs Nathan AdcockKC52.94%52.98%TBD
ATLTBTim Hudson vs David PriceTB56.80%56.08%TBD
FLACLEJosh Johnson vs Derek LoweFLA50.86%49.91%TBD
MINMILJason Marquis vs Zach GreinkeMIL68.25%68.18%TBD
SEACOLBlake Beavan vs Jeremy GuthrieCOL57.89%NATBD
STLLANKyle Lohse vs Chad BillingsleyLAN51.57%47.80%TBD
CINNYAJohnny Cueto vs C.C. SabathiaNYA60.55%62.23%TBD
NYNTORDillon Gee vs Henderson AlvarezTOR61.83%53.87%TBD
OAKSFBartolo Colon vs Tim LincecumSF59.76%58.25%TBD
PITDETKevin Correia vs Max ScherzerDET62.89%69.42%TBD
TEXHOUColby Lewis vs Jordan LylesTEX60.86%67.22%TBD
BALWASWei-Yin Chen vs Stephen StrasburgWAS59.92%55.00%TBD
BOSPHIJosh Beckett vs Cliff LeePHI59.43%62.19%TBD
CHACHNJake Peavy vs Paul MaholmCHA53.60%62.04%TBD

Current ROI: 5.81%
Notes: No bets for interleague games.

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Most Surprising Teams




A quick comparison of actual MLB teams winning percentage with their expected wins from Vegas to show which teams are the most and least surprising in a good and bad way. Vegas expected wins are calculated by adding up the chances of a team winning each game based on the Vegas money line. If a team had a 55% chance of winning a game according to Vegas they got 0.55 wins and 0.45 losses for that game. The teams at the top of this chart are way outperforming their win totals according to Vegas odds and the teams at the bottom of the chart are way underperforming. Teams in the middle are doing what they were expected to do.

TeamWinsLossesWPctVegas Exp WinsVegas Exp LossesVegas Exp WPctDiff Win Exp
Orioles27140.65918.24822.7520.4450.213
Dodgers27130.67521.73618.2640.5430.132
Indians23170.57519.70220.2980.4930.082
Braves25160.61021.69319.3070.5290.081
Rays24170.58521.26319.7370.5190.067
Pirates19210.47516.94023.0600.4240.051
Athletics20210.48817.93023.0700.4370.050
Astros18220.45016.29323.7070.4070.043
Mets20200.50018.43821.5620.4610.039
Nationals23170.57521.69018.3100.5420.033
Blue Jays23180.56121.70519.2950.5290.032
Rangers25160.61024.08516.9150.5870.022
Reds21180.53820.13518.8650.5160.022
Giants21190.52520.75719.2430.5190.006
Marlins21190.52521.16418.8360.529-0.004
White Sox20210.48820.26320.7370.494-0.006
Mariners18240.42918.31623.6840.436-0.008
Cardinals21190.52521.78018.2200.545-0.020
Royals16230.41017.25921.7410.443-0.032
Red Sox20200.50021.45618.5440.536-0.036
Phillies21200.51222.71918.2810.554-0.042
Yankees21190.52522.69317.3070.567-0.042
Diamondbacks18230.43920.03720.9630.489-0.050
Twins14260.35016.01423.9860.400-0.050
Cubs15250.37517.58722.4130.440-0.065
Tigers19210.47522.26217.7380.557-0.082
Brewers17230.42521.32718.6730.533-0.108
Padres14270.34118.53922.4610.452-0.111
Rockies15240.38519.62819.3720.503-0.119
Angels18230.43923.34017.6600.569-0.130

May 19th Simulation Results




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAASDDan Haren vs Eric StultsLAA59.27%59.36%TBD
ARIKCIan Kennedy vs Bruce ChenARI51.81%49.12%TBD
ATLTBRandall Delgado vs Alex CobbTB50.25%50.30%TBD
FLACLEAnibal Sanchez vs Jeanmar GomezFLA51.10%51.95%TBD
MINMILCarl Pavano vs Yovani GallardoMIL61.69%62.36%TBD
SEACOLJason Vargas vs Chris FriedrichCOL59.10%63.71%TBD
STLLANJake Westbrook vs Clayton KershawLAN58.93%53.02%TBD
CINNYAHomer Bailey vs Ivan NovaNYA60.71%62.44%TBD
NYNTORMiguel Batista vs Brandon MorrowTOR67.00%62.25%TBD
OAKSFTyson Ross vs Ryan VogelsongSF54.04%53.92%TBD
PITDETA.J. Burnett vs Drew SmylyDET60.71%63.43%TBD
TEXHOUDerek Holland vs Lucas HarrellTEX62.48%68.32%TBD
BALWASJason Hammel vs Ross DetwilerWAS50.74%50.12%TBD
BOSPHIJon Lester vs Joe BlantonBOS51.10%41.98%TBD
CHACHNJohn Danks vs Ryan DempsterCHN56.99%51.36%TBD

Current ROI: 8.14%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Friday, May 18, 2012

May 18th Simulations Results




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAASDJered Weaver vs Jeff SuppanLAA61.98%62.20%TBD
ARIKCJoe Saunders vs Luis MendozaARI53.92%NATBD
ATLTBTommy Hanson vs James ShieldsTB55.75%53.00%TBD
FLACLECarlos Zambrano vs Justin MastersonCLE53.70%61.23%TBD
STLLANLance Lynn vs Ted LillySTL53.27%55.58%TBD
CHACHNPhil Humber vs Jeff SamardzijaCHN54.13%51.43%TBD
BALWASJake Arrieta vs Edwin JacksonWAS53.05%56.13%TBD
BOSPHIDaniel Bard vs Cole HamelsPHI58.16%60.87%TBD
CINNYABronson Arroyo vs Andy PettitteNYA57.45%64.41%TBD
PITDETCharlie Morton vs Justin VerlanderDET68.75%73.87%TBD
NYNTORJohn Niese vs Ricky RomeroTOR58.85%62.71%TBD
TEXHOUNeftali Feliz vs Wandy RodriguezTEX60.00%65.76%TBD
MINMILScott Diamond vs Marco EstradaMIL56.90%60.00%TBD
SEACOLKevin Millwood vs Alex WhiteCOL56.14%NATBD
OAKSFJarrod Parker vs Barry ZitoSF51.92%51.55%TBD

Current ROI: 8.17%
Notes: Half bets on interleague

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Thursday, May 17, 2012

May 17th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALKCBrian Matusz vs Luke HochevarKC55.06%53.34%TBD
BOSTBFelix Doubront vs Matt MooreTB54.65%54.14%TBD
CHALAAChris Sale vs C.J. WilsonLAA60.40%64.26%TBD
LANSDAaron Harang vs Edinson VolquezSD54.02%55.64%TBD
FLAATLRicky Nolasco vs Brandon BeachyATL59.60%57.47%TBD
OAKTEXBrandon McCarthy vs Matt HarrisonTEX64.09%68.46%TBD
SEACLEHector Noesi vs Zach McAllisterCLE59.92%66.11%TBD
MINDETP.J. Walters vs Doug FisterDET69.23%68.47%TBD
CINNYNMat Latos vs R.A. DickeyCIN51.34%55.24%TBD
ARICOLTrevor Cahill vs Juan NicasioCOL51.34%NATBD
STLSFAdam Wainwright vs Matt CainSF53.16%52.56%TBD
PITWASJames McDonald vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS58.59%59.93%TBD
NYATORPhil Hughes vs Drew HutchisonNYA50.62%49.79%TBD
MILHOUShaun Marcum vs J.A. HappMIL57.54%64.35%TBD
PHICHNRoy Halladay vs Chris VolstadPHI62.62%64.05%TBD

Current ROI: 10.19%
MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

May 16th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations


VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALKCTommy Hunter vs Felipe PaulinoKC54.95%55.70%TBD
BOSTBClay Buchholz vs Jeremy HellicksonTB57.26%53.57%TBD
CHALAAGavin Floyd vs Jerome WilliamsLAA51.69%57.98%TBD
LANSDChris Capuano vs Clayton RichardLAN52.83%45.48%TBD
FLAATLMark Buehrle vs Mike MinorATL51.46%51.12%TBD
OAKTEXTom Milone vs Yu DarvishTEX67.74%73.88%TBD
SEACLEFelx Hernandez vs Ubaldo JimenezSEA53.27%45.16%TBD
MINDETNick Blackburn vs Rick PorcelloDET63.37%67.05%TBD
PITWASErik Bedard vs Gio GonzalezWAS58.33%55.25%TBD
NYATORHiroki Kuroda vs Kyle DrabekNYA55.56%52.27%TBD
CINNYNMike Leake vs Johan SantanaNYN56.52%59.26%TBD
MILHOURandy Wolf vs Bud NorrisHOU52.38%48.45%TBD
PHICHNKyle Kendrick vs Matt GarzaCHN59.18%54.48%TBD
ARICOLPat Corbin vs Jamie MoyerCOL50.00%NATBD
STLSFJaime Garcia vs Madison BumgarnerSTL50.00%51.67%TBD

Current ROI: 10.19%
Note: No bets today.
MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

May 15th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations


VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ARILANWade Miley vs Chad BillingsleyLAN56.99%55.54%TBD
CINATLJohnny Cueto vs Tim HudsonATL52.04%54.38%TBD
DETCHAMax Scherzer vs Jake PeavyCHA55.26%49.84%TBD
KCTEXVin Mazzaro vs Colby LewisTEX69.70%67.58%TBD
OAKLAABartolo Colon vs Ervin SantanaLAA59.76%59.56%TBD
SEABOSBlake Beavan vs Josh BeckettBOS64.22%65.65%TBD
HOUPHIJordan Lyles vs Cliff LeePHI72.41%72.42%TBD
SDWASAnthony Bass vs Stephen StrasburgWAS68.15%62.23%TBD
CLEMINDerek Lowe vs Jason MarquisCLE56.24%54.50%TBD
CHNSTLPaul Maholm vs Kyle LohseSTL63.70%67.12%TBD
NYABALC.C. Sabathia vs Wei-Yin ChenNYA59.60%57.67%TBD
TBTORDavid Price vs Henderson AlvarezTB50.25%48.44%TBD
MILNYNZach Greinke vs Dillon GeeMIL56.99%55.75%TBD
PITFLAKevin Correia vs Josh JohnsonFLA64.60%68.15%TBD
COLSFJeremy Guthrie vs Tim LincecumSF58.76%NATBD

Current ROI: 8.41%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Monday, May 14, 2012

May 14th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations


VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ARILANIan Kennedy vs Clayton KershawLAN59.84%57.55%TBD
CINATLHomer Bailey vs Randall DelgadoATL56.71%53.30%TBD
DETCHADrew Smyly vs John DanksDET53.49%51.16%TBD
KCTEXBruce Chen vs Scott FeldmanTEX63.77%66.28%TBD
OAKLAATyson Ross vs Dan HarenLAA65.99%65.76%TBD
SEABOSJason Vargas vs Jon LesterBOS62.55%64.26%TBD
HOUPHILucas Harrell vs Joe BlantonPHI61.98%65.05%TBD
NYABALIvan Nova vs Jason HammelNYA51.22%51.50%TBD
SDWASTim Stauffer vs Ross DetwilerWAS59.18%56.64%TBD
TBTORJeff Niemann vs Brandon MorrowTOR57.81%55.93%TBD
MILNYNYovanni Gallardo vs Miguel BatistaMIL57.08%57.40%TBD
PITFLABrad Lincoln vs Anibal SanchezFLA65.03%70.09%TBD
CLEMINJeanmar Gomez vs Carl PavanoCLE54.55%NATBD
CHNSTLRyan Dempster vs Jake WestbrookSTL60.16%63.58%TBD
COLSFChris Friedrich vs Ryan VogelsongSF53.49%NATBD

Current ROI: 8.41%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 13, 2012

May 13th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXJered Weaver vs Neftali FelizTEX55.65%58.56%TBD
CLEBOSJustin Masterson vs Daniel BardBOS56.04%49.92%TBD
COLLANAlex White vs Ted LillyLAN59.60%NATBD
KCCHADanny Duffy vs Phil HumberCHA54.85%58.15%TBD
SEANYAKevin Millwood vs Andy PettitteNYA63.57%68.15%TBD
WASCINEdwin Jackson vs Bronson ArroyoCIN55.26%50.41%TBD
NYNFLAJohn Niese vs Carlos ZambranoFLA57.17%60.21%TBD
HOUPITWandy Rodriguez vs A.J. BurnettPIT53.16%55.11%TBD
SDPHIJeff Suppan vs Cole HamelsPHI65.81%63.15%TBD
TBBALJames Shields vs Jake ArrietaTB54.23%49.66%TBD
CHNMILJeff Samardzija vs Marco EstradaMIL53.60%57.16%TBD
TORMINRicky Romero vs Scott DiamondTOR59.60%NATBD
ATLSTLTommy Hanson vs Lance LynnSTL59.10%53.51%TBD
DETOAKJustin Verlander vs Jarrod ParkerDET62.62%61.41%TBD
SFARIBarry Zito vs Joe SaundersARI57.54%59.84%TBD

Current ROI: 9.40%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 12, 2012

May 12th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXC.J. Wilson vs Matt HarrisonTEX60.00%56.28%TBD
CHNMILChris Volstad vs Shaun MarcumMIL64.09%66.38%TBD
CLEBOSJosh Tomlin vs Felix DoubrontBOS56.24%55.66%TBD
COLLANJuan Nicasio vs Aaron HarangLAN55.85%NATBD
KCCHALuke Hochevar vs Jake PeavyCHA57.98%60.51%TBD
WASCINJordan Zimmerman vs Mat LatosCIN54.02%60.67%TBD
SEANYAHector Noesi vs Phil HughesNYA64.35%69.52%TBD
HOUPITJ.A. Happ vs Charlie MortonPIT55.65%63.29%TBD
SDPHIEdinson Volquez vs Roy HalladayPHI65.93%63.47%TBD
TBBALMatt Moore vs Brian MatuszTB53.81%49.22%TBD
NYNFLAR.A. Dickey vs Ricky NolascoFLA55.65%62.94%TBD
TORMINDrew Hutchison vs P.J. WaltersTOR55.26%NATBD
ATLSTLBrandon Beachy vs Adam WainwrightSTL54.95%51.35%TBD
DETOAKDoug Fister vs Brandon McCarthyDET55.85%55.29%TBD
SFARIMatt Cain vs Trevor CahillSF50.62%50.14%TBD

Current ROI: 8.97%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Friday, May 11, 2012

May 11th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXC.J. Wilson vs Yu DarvishTEX58.93%62.33%TBD
CLEBOSUbaldo Jimenez vs Clay BuchholzCLE53.16%50.46%TBD
COLLANJamie Moyer vs Chris CapuanoLAN63.03%TBDTBD
KCCHAFelipe Paulino vs Gavin FloydCHA58.07%59.90%TBD
WASCINGio Gonzalez vs Mike LeakeWAS51.81%50.68%TBD
HOUPITBud Norris vs James McDonaldPIT55.65%59.88%TBD
SDPHIClayton Richard vs Vance WorleyPHI62.62%58.58%TBD
SEANYAFelx Hernandez vs Hiroki KurodaNYA56.80%57.89%TBD
TBBALJeremy Hellickson vs Dana EvelandBALNA55.49%TBD
NYNFLAJohan Santana vs Mark BuehrleFLA53.38%56.56%TBD
CHNMILMatt Garza vs Randy WolfCHN50.62%46.55%TBD
TORMINKyle Drabek vs Nick BlackburnTOR57.89%TBDTBD
ATLSTLMike Minor vs Jaime GarciaSTL58.76%59.96%TBD
SFARIMadison Bumgarner vs Pat CorbinSF54.65%49.09%TBD
DETOAKRick Porcello vs Tom MiloneDET53.81%52.65%TBD

Current ROI: 8.70%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Thursday, May 10, 2012

May 10th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CLEBOSDerek Lowe vs Josh BeckettBOS58.93%52.48%TBD
TBNYADavid Price vs C.C. SabathiaNYA59.27%60.08%TBD
TEXBALColby Lewis vs Wei-Yin ChenTEX54.75%54.04%TBD
TEXBALDerek Holland vs Tommy HunterTEX59.18%59.48%TBD
WASPITStephen Strasburg vs Kevin CorreiaWAS61.69%57.78%TBD
TORMINHenderson Alvarez vs Jason MarquisTOR57.72%48.59%TBD
DETOAKMax Scherzer vs Bartolo ColonDET50.86%56.33%TBD

Current ROI: 8.33%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

May 9th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSKCJon Lester vs Bruce ChenBOSTBD53.10%TBD
CHACLEJake Peavy vs Jeanmar GomezCHATBD50.08%TBD
COLSDChris Friedrich vs Anthony BassCOLTBD51.93%TBD
SFLANTim Lincecum vs Chad BillingsleyLANTBD53.50%TBD
CINMILJohnny Cueto vs Zach GreinkeMILTBD56.80%TBD
FLAHOUJosh Johnson vs Lucas HarrellFLATBD65.75%TBD
ATLCHNTim Hudson vs Paul MaholmATLTBD55.62%TBD
TOROAKBrandon Morrow vs Tyson RossTORTBD50.56%TBD
STLARIKyle Lohse vs Wade MileySTLTBD51.32%TBD
NYNPHIDillon Gee vs Cliff LeePHITBD69.90%TBD
TBNYAJeff Niemann vs David PhelpsNYATBD54.27%TBD
TEXBALColby Lewis vs Wei-Yin ChenTEXTBD53.97%TBD
WASPITRoss Detwiler vs Erik BedardPITTBD57.65%TBD
LAAMINErvin Santana vs Carl PavanoLAATBD51.92%TBD
DETSEADrew Smyly vs Jason VargasDETTBD56.98%TBD
Current ROI: 8.33%

MLB.COM Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Las Vegas MLB Park Factors



Having compiled all of the MLB run total lines from Vegas Odds (5Dimes, Opening Lines) I decided to reverse engineer (Runs) park factors from the Vegas lines. What I did is substituted total runs scored for each game with the Vegas run totals, then added up the expected run totals for the home games and away games for each team and plugged this in to the basic park factors equation of...

PF: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))

Along with the Vegas park factors, I am listing and sorting by 2012 empirical park factors with the Vegas park factor listed to the right side. I am aware that this is a really small sample size for anything dealing with the empirical park factors, but it should give you a glimpse in to how the oddsmakers judge each park. As more games are played and the schedules even out, I will revisit this to see how things shake out. The table below lists the current "runs" park factor and Vegas park factor along with the average number of runs scored away stadium/home stadium for each of the two methods.

TeamAway Stadium RunsHome Stadium RunsPFVegas Away Stadium RunsVegas Home Stadium RunsVegas PF
Rockies7.2012.941.807.739.391.21
Blue Jays7.1410.401.468.168.651.06
Cardinals7.6510.581.387.917.440.94
Twins7.8810.671.358.348.170.98
Marlins6.398.451.327.077.231.02
Royals7.7710.131.307.858.611.10
Diamondbacks7.639.791.287.328.611.18
Tigers7.409.111.238.688.240.95
Red Sox10.3612.211.188.429.201.09
White Sox7.258.431.167.798.211.05
Nationals5.836.751.166.976.920.99
Braves9.5310.851.148.117.370.91
Brewers8.569.621.127.137.951.12
Reds7.217.931.107.518.061.07
Yankees9.809.460.979.159.501.04
Phillies7.797.090.916.797.201.06
Cubs8.177.410.917.537.651.02
Astros9.388.310.897.477.791.04
Orioles8.947.850.888.748.801.01
Angels8.086.880.858.167.520.92
Mariners8.396.920.838.037.010.87
Dodgers8.507.000.827.596.710.88
Padres8.566.670.787.696.280.82
Athletics8.006.230.787.487.020.94
Rays10.007.750.788.667.580.88
Indians10.427.940.767.687.981.04
Rangers10.137.690.768.649.451.09
Pirates7.565.080.677.317.441.02
Mets11.006.500.597.927.240.92
Giants9.865.600.578.066.480.80

May 8th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSKCDaniel Bard vs Danny DuffyBOS53.81%49.81%TBD
CHACLEJohn Danks vs Justin MastersonCLE57.54%58.79%TBD
COLSDAlex White vs Jeff SuppanCOL50.86%54.18%TBD
SFLANRyan Vogelsong vs Clayton KershawLAN65.10%63.05%TBD
NYNPHIMiguel Batista vs Joe BlantonPHI62.19%61.26%TBD
TBNYAJames Shields vs Ivan NovaNYA52.27%55.79%TBD
TEXBALNeftali Feliz vs Wei-Yin ChenTEX55.65%55.86%TBD
WASPITEdwin Jackson vs A.J. BurnettWAS51.81%52.59%TBD
ATLCHNRandall Delgado vs Ryan DempsterCHN51.34%52.46%TBD
FLAHOUAnibal Sanchez vs Anuery RodriguezFLA58.25%68.02%TBD
LAAMINDan Haren vs Scott DiamondLAA62.89%61.95%TBD
CINMILHomer Bailey vs Yovanni GallardoMIL56.04%60.78%TBD
STLARIJake Westbrook vs Ian KennedyARI54.65%54.36%TBD
TOROAKRicky Romero vs Brandon McCarthyOAK54.65%55.74%TBD
DETSEAJustin Verlander vs Kevin MillwoodDET66.10%66.85%TBD

Current ROI: 8.96%

Foxsports Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Monday, May 07, 2012

May 7th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BOSKCFelix Doubront vs Jonathan SanchezBOS51.10%50.78%TBD
CHACLEPhil Humber vs Zach McAllisterCLE51.57%53.71%TBD
CHACLEEric Stults vs Josh TomlinCLE56.99%55.60%TBD
COLSDDrew Pomeranz vs Edinson VolquezSD51.10%50.82%TBD
SFLANBarry Zito vs Ted LillyLANNA60.93%TBD
NYNPHIJohn Niese vs Roy HalladayPHI65.34%66.71%TBD
TEXBALMatt Harrison vs Brian MatuszTEX58.76%58.42%TBD
ATLCHNTommy Hanson vs Jeff SamardzijaATL54.65%57.34%TBD
FLAHOUCarlos Zambrano vs Wandy RodriguezHOU52.04%41.46%TBD
LAAMINJered Weaver vs Francisco LirianoLAA63.83%62.14%TBD
CINMILBronson Arroyo vs Yovanni GallardoMIL55.06%60.43%TBD
STLARILance Lynn vs Joe SaundersSTL52.94%56.39%TBD
DETSEADoug Fister vs Blake BeavanDET56.04%62.75%TBD

Current ROI: 9.02%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Sunday, May 06, 2012

May 6th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALBOSTommy Hunter vs Clay BuchholzBOS58.42%55.96%TBD
FLASDRicky Nolasco vs Joe WielandFLA54.23%56.80%TBD
NYAKCPhil Hughes vs Luke HochevarNYA53.60%51.32%TBD
OAKTBTom Milone vs Matt MooreTB60.86%60.40%TBD
TEXCLEYu Darvish vs Ubaldo JimenezTEX61.69%56.36%TBD
TORLAADrew Hutchison vs Jerome WilliamsLAA55.65%60.15%TBD
CHADETDylan Axelrod vs Rick PorcelloDET58.25%62.22%TBD
ARINYNTrevor Cahill vs R.A. DickeyNYN50.62%53.86%TBD
CINPITMat Latos vs Charlie MortonCIN54.02%54.94%TBD
PHIWASCole Hamels vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS52.49%51.29%TBD
STLHOUAdam Wainwright vs J.A. HappSTL58.93%63.32%TBD
LANCHNAaron Harang vs Travis WoodLAN52.04%52.11%TBD
ATLCOLBrandon Beachy vs Juan NicasioATL53.60%NATBD
MILSFShaun Marcum vs Matt CainSF57.89%54.34%TBD
MINSEANick Blackburn vs Hector NoesiSEA54.65%NATBD

Current ROI: 6.89%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Saturday, May 05, 2012

Cinco de Mayo Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALBOSJason Hammel vs Aaron CookBOSTBD52.57%TBD
FLASDMark Buehrle vs Clayton RichardFLATBD56.27%TBD
NYAKCHiroki Kuroda vs Felipe PaulinoNYATBD54.14%TBD
OAKTBBartolo Colon vs Jeremy HellicksonTBTBD58.57%TBD
TEXCLEDerek Holland vs Derek LoweTEXTBD56.26%TBD
TORLAAKyle Drabek vs C.J. WilsonLAATBD63.13%TBD
CHADETGavin Floyd vs Max ScherzerDETTBD61.60%TBD
LANCHNChris Capuano vs Chris VolstadLANTBD50.72%TBD
PHIWASVance Worley vs Gio GonzalezWASTBD52.07%TBD
ARINYNPat Corbin vs Johan SantanaNYNTBD60.68%TBD
MILSFRandy Wolf vs Madison BumgarnerSFTBD55.72%TBD
CINPITMike Leake vs James McDonaldPITTBD50.08%TBD
STLHOUJaime Garcia vs Bud NorrisSTLTBD61.22%TBD
ATLCOLMike Minor vs Jamie MoyerCOLTBDNATBD
MINSEAJason Marquis vs Felx HernandezSEATBDNATBD

Current ROI: 8.13%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts

Vegas MLB Standings



Here is the actual MLB Standings and the Vegas Standings. The Vegas Standings are calculated by adding up the Vegas win expectancy for each team from each game they played. If Vegas said a team had a 50% chance of winning, each team was given 0.5 wins.

TeamWinsLossesWPctVegas Exp WinsVegas Exp LossesVegas Exp WPct
Dodgers1790.65413.90912.0910.535
Diamondbacks14130.51913.23513.7650.490
Rockies12130.48012.97412.0260.519
Giants12140.46213.67312.3270.526
Padres8190.29612.49414.5060.463
       
Cardinals16100.61514.24511.7550.548
Reds14110.56013.47611.5240.539
Brewers13130.50013.82812.1720.532
Astros12140.46210.37015.6300.399
Pirates11150.42310.67015.3300.410
Cubs9170.34610.99015.0100.423
       
Nationals1790.65414.11311.8870.543
Braves16110.59314.67412.3260.543
Phillies13140.48114.50112.4990.537
Marlins12140.46213.60112.3990.523
Mets12140.46212.24913.7510.471
       
TeamWinsLossesWPctVegas Exp WinsVegas Exp LossesVegas Exp WPct
Rangers1790.65414.98711.0130.576
Athletics13140.48112.17214.8280.451
Mariners11170.39312.25015.7500.437
Angels10170.37015.47611.5240.573
       
Tigers13120.52013.47911.5210.539
Indians14100.58311.79012.2100.491
White Sox12140.46213.08312.9170.503
Royals8170.32011.03213.9680.441
Twins7180.2809.99815.0020.400
       
Yankees14120.53814.68011.3200.565
Rays1890.66714.12212.8780.523
Orioles1790.65411.41314.5870.439
Blue Jays16110.59314.14312.8570.524
Red Sox12130.48013.37511.6250.535

Thursday, May 03, 2012

May 4th Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALBOSWei-Yin Chen vs Jon LesterBOS61.32%57.29%TBD
FLASDJosh Johnson vs Anthony BassFLA53.81%59.76%TBD
NYAKCC.C. Sabathia vs Bruce ChenNYA61.17%59.67%TBD
OAKTBTyson Ross vs David PriceTB65.93%66.27%TBD
TEXCLEColby Lewis vs Jeanmar GomezTEX58.59%53.59%TBD
TORLAAHenderson Alvarez vs Ervin SantanaLAA55.26%58.83%TBD
LANCHNChad Billingsley vs Paul MaholmLAN56.99%50.79%TBD
CHADETJake Peavy vs Drew SmylyDET50.25%54.84%TBD
CINPITJohnny Cueto vs Kevin CorreiaCIN57.72%57.22%TBD
PHIWASKyle Kendrick vs Stephen StrasburgWAS65.75%61.98%TBD
ARINYNWade Miley vs Dillon GeeARI50.74%49.26%TBD
STLHOUKyle Lohse vs Lucas HarrellSTL58.42%61.15%TBD
ATLCOLTim Hudson vs Guillermo MoscosoATL51.81%49.08%TBD
MINSEACarl Pavano vs Jason VargasSEA56.62%49.42%TBD
MILSFZach Greinke vs Tim LincecumSF50.62%51.64%TBD

Current ROI: 6.09%

Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

How Badly Did Jim Tracy Blow It?



During the May 2nd Dodgers vs Rockies game, the Rockies were leading 5-3 with two outs in the top of the 9th inning (Dodgers batting). Matt Kemp was at the plate with Adam Kennedy at first base. The Dodgers were down to their last out and Matt Kemp represented the tying run at the plate. Even with a HR, the Rockies could do no worse in Kemp's at-bat than a tie ball game. The on deck batter was Dee Gordon, inserted in to the lineup in the latter part of the game. Dee Gordon represented the potential go-ahead run.

Worried about the hot hitting Matt Kemp, Rockies manager Jim Tracy decided to take his chances with the slender Dee Gordon by walking Matt Kemp intentionally. The strategy ended up backfiring badly on the Rockies as Dee Gordon hit a two run double, scoring both Adam Kennedy and Matt Kemp to tie the game. The Rockies went on to later win the game in the bottom of the 9th inning on a pinch hit three run HR by Jason Giambi, overcoming the managerial blunder by Jim Tracy.

Or was it a blunder? And if it was, how much of a blunder was it? I ran both scenarios, the pitch to Kemp and the walk Kemp through my simulator 100,000 times to see how the strategy effected the Rockies win expectancy. The simulator is good for these kinds of scenarios because it can take in to consideration the actual pitchers, batters and runners. A simple analysis would be to just look at the empirical data from past history to get an idea of the Rockies win expectancy in both scenarios. Below are my results along with the empirical results.

ScenarioDodgers Win ExpRockies Win Exp
Sim Pitch to Kemp5.64%94.36%
Sim IBB Kemp7.64%92.36%
Empirical Pitch to Kemp3.19%96.81%
Empirical IBB Kemp6.82%93.18%

So there you have it. The simulator says the Rockies lost around 2% of win expectancy by intentionally walking Matt Kemp to pitch to Dee Gordon. The empirical data says they lost just over 3.5% of win expectancy. Not exactly a game changing move, but definitely the WRONG move.


Wednesday, May 02, 2012

May 3rd Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHNCINRyan Dempster vs Homer BaileyCIN58.42%60.16%TBD
CLECHAJustin Masterson vs John DanksCHA53.16%51.48%TBD
NYAKCDavid Phelps vs Danny DuffyNYA55.06%52.44%TBD
PHIATLJoe Blanton vs Randall DelgadoATL54.65%56.27%TBD
SEATBKevin Millwood vs Jeff NiemannTB64.60%62.33%TBD
TORLAABrandon Morrow vs Dan HarenLAA55.46%62.62%TBD
PITSTLErik Bedard vs Jake WestbrookSTL59.92%56.88%TBD
FLASFAnibal Sanchez vs Ryan VogelsongFLA50.86%55.19%TBD
ARIWASIan Kennedy vs Ross DetwilerARI50.86%51.68%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard

May 2nd Simulations



2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
CHNCINJeff Samardzija vs Bronson ArroyoCINTBD63.87%TBD
CLECHAJosh Tomlin vs Phil HumberCHATBD53.29%TBD
MILSDYovanni Gallardo vs Jeff SuppanMILTBD53.82%TBD
MINLAALiam Hendriks vs Jered WeaverLAATBD65.01%TBD
OAKBOSBrandon McCarthy vs Daniel BardBOSTBD55.45%TBD
PHIATLRoy Halladay vs Tommy HansonPHITBD54.34%TBD
SEATBBlake Beavan vs James ShieldsTBTBD66.65%TBD
TEXTORMatt Harrison vs Ricky RomeroTEXTBD58.58%TBD
NYNHOUChris Schwinden vs Wandy RodriguezHOUTBD50.94%TBD
LANCOLClayton Kershaw vs Drew PomeranzCOLTBD50.67%TBD
ARIWASJoe Saunders vs Edwin JacksonWASTBD55.41%TBD
BALNYAJake Arrieta vs Ivan NovaNYATBD63.02%TBD
KCDETJonathan Sanchez vs Justin VerlanderDETTBD71.20%TBD
PITSTLA.J. Burnett vs Lance LynnSTLTBD61.80%TBD
FLASFCarlos Zambrano vs Barry ZitoFLATBD52.55%TBD
Yahoo Baseball Scoreboard