Sunday, October 31, 2010

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #5 Simulation



November 1st Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Rangers T.Lincecum vs C.Lee Rangers 62.26% 57.96% SF 3-1


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Final Post-Season ROI: 42.07%

Simulation details at
Lonestar Ball
McCovey Chronicles

MLB Scoreboard

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #4 Simulation



October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Rangers M.Bumgarner vs T.Hunter Rangers 59.12% 45.62% SF 4-0


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 30.55%

Simulation details at

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #3 Simulation



October 30th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Rangers J.Sanchez vs C.Lewis Rangers 59.51% 56.15% TEX 4-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

Simulation details at Lonestar Ball
Simulation details at McCovey Chronicles
Simulation details at Beyond The Boxscore

MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #2 Simulation



October 28th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Giants C.Wilson vs M.Cain Giants 52.38% 52.04% SF 9-0


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 33.10%

MLB Scoreboard

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #1 Simulation



October 27th Simulations, World Series Odds ...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Giants C.Lee vs T.Lincecum Rangers 54.34% 46.76% SF 11-7


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 28.98%

MLB Scoreboard

Friday, October 22, 2010

NLCS Game #6 Simulation



October 23rd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Phillies J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt Phillies 60.63% 56.07% SF 3-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 24.72%

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 21, 2010

ALCS Game #6 Simulation



October 22nd Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Yankees Rangers P.Hughes vs C.Lewis Yankees 51.46% 42.68% TEX 6-1


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 18.36%

MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Giant Close-Out Game



October 21th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Giants R.Halladay vs T.Lincecum Giants 52.94% 48.25% PHI 4-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 23.31%

MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

League Championship Series Simulations



October 20th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Giants J.Blanton vs M.Bumgarner Giants 52.15% 55.93% SF 6-5
Rangers Yankees C.Wilson vs C.Sabathia Yankees 62.48% 57.45% NYA 7-2


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 25.29%

MLB Scoreboard

Monday, October 18, 2010

League Championship Series Simulations



October 19th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Giants C.Hamels vs M.Cain Phillies 52.15% 48.50% SF 3-0
Rangers Yankees T.Hunter vs A.Burnett Yankees 58.16% 66.80% TEX 10-3


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 35.66%

MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Rangers vs Yankees, ALCS Game #3 Simulation



October 18th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Yankees C.Lee vs A.Pettitte Rangers 51.46% 57.80% TEX 8-0


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 29.60%

MLB Scoreboard

NLCS Game #2, Giants vs Phillies



October 17th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Phillies J.Sanchez vs R.Oswalt Phillies 60.24% 64.86% PHI 6-1


Final Regular Season ROI: 3.54%
Playoffs ROI: 26.51%

MLB Scoreboard

Friday, October 15, 2010

League Championship Series Simulations



October 16th Simulations, Championship Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Phillies T.Lincecum vs R.Halladay Phillies 61.17% 58.38% SF 4-3
Yankees Rangers P.Hughes vs C.Lewis Yankees 53.16% 45.73% TEX 7-2


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 14, 2010

ALCS Game #1, Yankees vs Rangers



October 15th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Yankees Rangers C.Sabathia vs C.Wilson Yankees 58.07% 48.62% NYA 6-5


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

NLCS Preview, Tim Lincecum



Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..




The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?

To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.

Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.

Date Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Giants Win Prob Actual
4/11 Braves Giants K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum 65.87% Win
4/17 Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger 60.78% Win
4/23 Cardinals Giants J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum 61.98% Win
4/28 Phillies Giants C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum 61.83% Loss
5/4 Giants Marlins T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez 62.83% Win
5/9 Giants Mets T.Lincecum vs O.Perez 64.79% Win
5/19 Astros Giants R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum 68.15% Win
5/20 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez 62.69% Loss
5/26 Nationals Giants L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum 72.97% Loss
5/31 Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum 50.50% Loss
6/6 Giants Pirates T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf 65.64% Win
7/2 Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin 54.95% Loss
7/7 Giants Brewers T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson 56.52% Win
7/15 Mets Giants R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum 63.24% Win
7/20 Giants Dodgers T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw 46.30% Win
7/25 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs B.Enright 57.98% Win
7/30 Dodgers Giants C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum 63.90% Win
8/5 Giants Braves T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens 51.22% Loss
8/10 Cubs Giants R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum 63.64% Loss
8/15 Padres Giants W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum 63.90% Loss
8/21 Giants Cardinals T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter 39.37% Loss
8/27 DBacks Giants B.Enright vs T.Lincecum 64.16% Loss
9/1 Rockies Giants U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum 46.51% Win
9/7 Giants DBacks T.Lincecum vs B.Enright 54.13% Win
9/12 Giants Padres T.Lincecum vs M.Latos 42.74% Win
9/18 Brewers Giants Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum 58.51% Loss
9/24 Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin 45.25% Win
9/29 DBacks Giants I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum 66.10% Win


The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Division Series, October 12th Games



October 12th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rangers Rays C.Lee vs D.Price Rays 52.72% 49.45% TEX 5-1


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Division Series, October 11th Games



October 11th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Braves M.Bumgarner vs D.Lowe Braves 58.16% 53.53% SF 3-2


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, October 09, 2010

Division Series, October 10th Games



October 10th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Braves J.Sanchez vs T.Hudson Braves 56.52% 54.48% SF 3-2
Phillies Reds C.Hamels vs J.Cueto Phillies 55.46% 55.64% PHI 2-0
Rays Rangers W.Davis vs T.Hunter Rangers 53.60% 50.08% TB 5-2


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Division Series, October 9th Games



October 9th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rays Rangers M.Garza vs C.Lewis Rangers 55.46% 60.45% TB 6-3
Twins Yankees B.Duensing vs P.Hughes Yankees 61.90% 64.66% NYA 6-1


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Division Series, October 8th Games



October 8th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Giants T.Hanson vs M.Cain Giants 58.16% 54.83% ATL 5-4
Reds Phillies B.Arroyo vs R.Oswalt Phillies 65.22% 68.52% PHI 7-4


Final 2010 ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Division Series, October 7th Games



October 7th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Braves Giants D.Lowe vs T.Lincecum Giants 59.84% 62.27% SF 1-0
Rangers Rays C.Wilson vs J.Shields Rays 53.38% 48.86% TEX 6-0
Yankees Twins A.Pettitte vs C.Pavano Yankees 52.72% 52.57% NYA 5-2


Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

Monday, October 04, 2010

Division Series, October 6th Games



October 6th Simulations, Division Series Odds. ..



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Reds Phillies E.Volquez vs R.Halladay Phillies 66.10% 68.64% PHI 4-0
Rangers Rays C.Lee vs D.Price Rays 55.06% 50.32% TEX 5-1
Yankees Twins C.Sabathia vs F.Liriano Yankees 56.80% 44.75% NYA 6-4


Current ROI: 3.54%

MLB Scoreboard

2010 Simulation Results


The 2010 regular baseball season is over and below are the statistics of how the simulator did for the 2010 season. Method of measurement is Return On Investment (ROI), which is calculated by taking the total amount won betting, divided by the total amount of money bet.

Measurement ROI
Overall 3.42%
April 8.95%
May -1.37%
June 1.20%
July 5.52%
August 1.28%
Sep/Oct 5.66%
National League 4.98%
American League 1.53%
Interleague 5.03%
Favorites -4.00%
Underdogs 8.04%
Visitors -0.75%
Home 6.06%
Home Underdogs 15.55%
Home Favorites 0.19%


To put this in perspective, let's say that you average bet was $10 on each game, (this is a simplified example) - but just to get an idea on what you'd make, it would be around $730 and $7300 on average bet sizes of $100. From the table above, the simulator cleaned up on "home underdogs".

Saturday, October 02, 2010

Season Finale



October 3rd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers R.Lopez vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 63.90% 66.55% LAN 3-1
Padres Giants M.Latos vs J.Sanchez Giants TBD 52.46% SF 3-0
Phillies Braves C.Hamels vs T.Hudson Phillies TBD 55.41% ATL 8-7


Current ROI: 3.54%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 10/3 10/2 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23
1 Giants 62.91% 90.04% 94.99% 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43%
2 Padres 37.09% 9.96% 5.01% 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 48.41% 83.97% 95.49% 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%        
2 Padres 19.80% 11.04% 3.11% 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%        
3 Giants 31.78% 5.00% 1.40% 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%        


MLB Scoreboard

Friday, October 01, 2010

Operation Protect Draft Pick



October 2nd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers J.Saunders vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 61.09% 70.61% LAN 3-2
Padres Giants T.Stauffer vs B.Zito Giants 60.00% 59.96% SD 4-2
Phillies Braves V.Worley vs T.Hanson Braves 62.41% 62.34% PHI 7-0


Current ROI: 2.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 10/2 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22
1 Giants 90.04% 94.99% 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75%
2 Padres 9.96% 5.01% 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 83.97% 95.49% 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%          
2 Padres 11.04% 3.11% 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%          
3 Giants 5.00% 1.40% 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%          


MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, September 30, 2010

October Baseball



October 1st, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers K.Kroenke vs J.Ely Dodgers 59.84% 62.42% ARI 7-5
Padres Giants C.Richard vs M.Cain Giants 61.83% 58.07% SD 6-4
Phillies Braves K.Kendrick vs B.Beachy Braves 60.78% 48.80% PHI 11-5


Current ROI: 2.44%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20
1 Giants 94.99% 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62%
2 Padres 5.01% 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 95.49% 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%            
2 Padres 3.11% 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%            
3 Giants 1.40% 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%            


MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

.500 Still Attainable



September 30th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Padres T.Gorzelanny vs J.Garland Padres 61.54% 50.01% SD 1-0
DBacks Giants B.Enright vs M.Bumgarner Giants 63.90% 70.41% SF 4-1


Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19
1 Giants 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49%
2 Padres 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%              
2 Padres 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%              
3 Giants 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%              


MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

CTRL-ALT-DEL On Kershaw's Season



September 29th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Rockies C.Monasterios vs J.Chacin Rockies 64.79% 71.95% LAN 7-6
Cubs Padres R.Wells vs C.Young Padres 58.85% 48.08% SD 3-0
DBacks Giants I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum Giants 66.10% 69.26% SF 3-1
Marlins Braves A.Miller vs D.Lowe Braves 68.75% 66.74% ATL 5-1


Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18
1 Giants 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04%
2 Padres 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%                
2 Padres 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%                
3 Giants 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%                


MLB Scoreboard

Monday, September 27, 2010

Wild Card Mania



September 28th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers H.Kuroda vs J.Francis Rockies 56.52% 58.89% LAN 9-7
Cubs Padres R.Dempster vs M.Latos Padres 61.54% 59.73% CHN 5-2
DBacks Giants R.Lopez vs J.Sanchez Giants 69.51% 69.52% SF 4-2
Marlins Braves A.Sanchez vs T.Hudson Braves 63.64% 56.47% ATL 3-2


Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17
1 Giants 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04%
2 Padres 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 76.00% 56.28%                  
2 Padres 16.35% 27.66%                  
3 Giants 7.65% 16.06%                  


MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, September 26, 2010

More Meaningless Games for LA



September 27th, Simulations of interest...






























Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers T.Lilly vs U.Jimenez Rockies 64.41% 68.49% LAN 3-1
Cubs Padres C.Zambrano vs T.Stauffer Padres 58.51% 46.07% CHN 1-0
Marlins Braves A.Sanabia vs T.Hanson Braves 64.41% 64.10% ATL 2-1


Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West



























































































Rank Team 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16
1 Giants 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54%
2 Padres 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20%
3 Rockies 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 56.28% &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
2 Padres 27.66% &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp
3 Giants 16.06% &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp


MLB Scoreboard


Finale in AZ



September 26th, Simulations of interest...






























Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Billingsley vs J.Saunders DBacks 50.98% 43.39% ARI 5-4
Giants Rockies M.Cain vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 53.27% 60.24% SF 4-2
Reds Padres H.Bailey vs C.Richard Padres 55.16% 55.94% CIN 12-2


Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West



















































Rank Team 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15
1 Giants 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30%
2 Padres 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81%
3 Rockies 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86%


MLB Scoreboard



Friday, September 24, 2010

DBack To The Future



September 25th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks J.Ely vs D.Hudson DBacks 64.91% 61.71% TBD


Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14
1 Giants 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08%
2 Padres 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05%
3 Rockies 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86%


MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Dodgers Dog Of A Season Continues



September 24th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs B.Enright Dodgers 55.36% 61.14% LAN 3-1
Reds Padres B.Arroyo vs C.Young Padres 53.92% 53.35% SD 4-3
Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin Rockies 54.75% 63.53% SF 2-1


Current ROI: 2.22%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13
1 Giants 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78%
2 Padres 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98%
3 Rockies 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23%


MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Padres Foil Dodgers Spoil



September 23rd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers M.Latos vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 51.22% 50.15% LAN 3-1


Current ROI: 2.32%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12
1 Padres 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38%
2 Giants 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50%
3 Rockies 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11%


MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Dodgers Tank Game, Season Down The Drain



September 22nd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers T.Stauffer vs T.Lilly Dodgers 54.95% 57.99% SD 3-1


Current ROI: 2.41%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11
1 Giants 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74%
2 Padres 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74%
3 Rockies 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51%


MLB Scoreboard

Monday, September 20, 2010

This Is The End



September 21th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers C.Richard vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 54.13% 55.45% SD 6-0


Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10
1 Giants 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00%
2 Padres 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57%
3 Rockies 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43%


MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Dodgers Ready For The Fall



September 20th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
White Sox Athletics G.Floyd vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 57.98% 49.08% OAK 3-0


Current ROI: 2.62%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10
1 Giants 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00%
2 Padres 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57%
3 Rockies 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43%


MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Dodgers Remain A Mystery



September 19th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.Hammel vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 55.75% 59.81% LAN 7-6
Padres Cardinals J.Garland vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 63.24% 66.66% STL 4-1
Brewers Giants C.Narveson vs B.Zito Giants 59.02% 56.63% SF 9-2


Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9
1 Padres 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61%
2 Giants 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96%
3 Rockies 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42%


MLB Scoreboard

Friday, September 17, 2010

Rolling Over



September 18th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.Chacin vs J.Ely Rockies 54.75% 51.21% COL 12-2
Padres Cardinals C.Young vs J.Suppan Padres 51.46% 43.93% SD 8-4
Brewers Giants Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum Giants 58.51% 57.59% MIL 2-1


Current ROI: 2.82%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8
1 Giants 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21%
2 Padres 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19%
3 Rockies 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54%
4 Dodgers 0.0006% 0.0003% 0.004% 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06%


MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Rockies Come To LA



September 17th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs H.Kuroda Rockies 56.33% 47.28% COL 7-5
Padres Cardinals M.Latos vs K.Lohse Padres 57.81% 53.06% STL 14-4
Brewers Giants R.Wolf vs M.Bumgarner Giants 58.33% 61.66% MIL 3-0


Current ROI: 2.88%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
1 Giants 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13%
2 Padres 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60%
3 Rockies 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09%
4 Dodgers 0.0003% 0.004% 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18%


MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NL West Tightens Back Up, Part III



September 16th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants T.Lilly vs J.Sanchez Giants 56.14% 59.24% SF 10-2
Padres Cardinals T.Stauffer vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 53.70% 60.65% STL 4-0


Current ROI: 2.75%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6
1 Giants 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53%
2 Padres 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06%
3 Rockies 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85%
4 Dodgers 0.004% 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56%


MLB Scoreboard
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Will The Giants Suck It Again?



September 15th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs M.Cain Giants 58.51% 53.48% SF 2-1
Padres Rockies C.Richard vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 60.32% 57.73% COL 9-6


Current ROI: 2.56%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5
1 Padres 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02%
2 Giants 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29%
3 Rockies 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74%
4 Dodgers 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95%


MLB Scoreboard
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Monday, September 13, 2010

Clayton The Giants Slayer



September 14th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Kershaw vs B.Zito Giants 51.69% 49.93% LAN 1-0
Padres Rockies J.Garland vs J.Hammel Rockies 59.68% 65.48% SD 7-6


Current ROI: 2.28%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4
1 Giants 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97%
2 Padres 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56%
3 Rockies 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90%
4 Dodgers 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57%


MLB Scoreboard
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How Good Is Good?



Question: In terms of win probability for one game, how much of a bearing does one superstar hitter have on his team?

Well, a lot of this has to do with who this superstar hitter is being replaced with. Any easy and somewhat crude method to figuring this out is to find the difference in true talent in terms of WAR/150 of the superstar player and his replacement. You want to make sure you get as accurately as possible an estimate on the true talent WAR/150 of these two players. It will be somewhat subjective, but not too difficult.

Let's take someone like Carlos Gonzalez and for arguments sake, let's call him a 5.0 WAR/150 player. Let's pretend the Rockies are going to sit Gonzalez and in his place start Ryan Spilborghs and let's call Spilborghs a 1.5 WAR/150 player. Keep in mind we are not doing any adjustments for the handedness of the pitcher being faced in this example, and in the next iteration you would definitely need to make this additional adjustment.

So we have a 5.0 minus 1.5 equals 3.5 WAR/150 difference. Since we are attempting to determine how this changes the Rockies win probability for one single game, we need to change units from per 150 games to a single game. We need to then divide 3.5 by 150 which gets us 0.02333 which is how much win probability the Rockies would lose by starting Spilborghs over Carlos Gonzalez, with the one above mentioned caveat. Let's say the Rockies were originally favored to win this game with a win probability of 60.00%. You could now safely adjust this number down to 57.67%. As far as what this would look like on a Vegas money line the adjustment would go from -150 favorites to -136.

This is a quick, dirty and easy method to use when you need to make a quick calculation on how much the win probability should change when a hitter is removed/added to the lineup. The same thing can be done when multiple players are involved, you will just need to add up all the WAR/150 of all the players taken out of the game and offset it against all the WAR/150 of all the players used to replace them.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Rockies Rolling



September 13th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Rockies C.Luebke vs J.Francis Rockies 58.33% 66.53% SD 6-4


Current ROI: 2.68%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3
1 Giants 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18%
2 Padres 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42%
3 Rockies 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51%
4 Dodgers 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90%


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Tightening Up At The Top



September 12th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros C.Monasterios vs N.Figueroa Astros 54.55% 50.28% HOU 7-4
Giants Padres T.Lincecum vs M.Latos Padres 57.26% 59.52% SF 6-1
DBacks Rockies I.Kennedy vs J.Chacin Rockies 62.83% 70.13% COL 4-2


Current ROI: 2.63%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2
1 Giants 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73%
2 Padres 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16%
3 Rockies 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18%
4 Dodgers 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92%


MLB Scoreboard
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Friday, September 10, 2010

Extra!, Extra! Dodgers Win



September 11th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros J.Ely vs W.Rodriguez Astros 57.08% 55.28% LAN 6-3
Giants Padres M.Bumgarner vs T.Stauffer Padres 53.70% 48.63% SD 1-0
DBacks Rockies R.Lopez vs U.Jimenez Rockies 74.23% 78.07% COL 2-1


Current ROI: 2.62%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1
1 Giants 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28%
2 Padres 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77%
3 Rockies 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83%
4 Dodgers 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13%


MLB Scoreboard
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Thursday, September 09, 2010

Home Dogs For The Win



September 10th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros H.Kuroda vs J.Happ Dodgers 51.69% 53.97% LAN 4-2
Giants Padres J.Sanchez vs C.Richard Padres 51.46% 55.98% SF 1-0
DBacks Rockies J.Saunders vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 64.91% 67.42% COL 13-4


Current ROI: 2.49%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31
1 Padres 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09%
2 Giants 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24%
3 Rockies 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12%
4 Dodgers 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56%


MLB Scoreboard
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Wednesday, September 08, 2010

How Low Can You Go!?



September 9th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros T.Lilly vs B.Norris Dodgers 55.56% 48.10% HOU 3-2
Cardinals Braves A.Wainwright vs J.Jurrjens Cardinals 51.69% 49.17% STL 11-4


Stats of Interest
Current ROI: 2.42%
Favorite ROI: -3.82%
Underdog ROI: 5.96%
Away ROI: -4.13%
Home ROI: 6.64%
NL ROI: 5.59%
AL ROI: -1.35%
INT ROI: 5.03%
Home/Dog ROI: 15.46%
Home/Fave ROI: 0.20%


Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30
1 Padres 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40%
2 Giants 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91%
3 Rockies 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84%
4 Dodgers 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85%


MLB Scoreboard
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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Playing Out The String



September 8th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres C.Billingsley vs C.Luebke Dodgers 50.98% 55.26% SD 4-0


Note of interest: 50 years ago today, Joe Torre signed his first professional contract. (Source: Hardball Times)

Current ROI: 2.74%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29
1 Padres 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69%
2 Giants 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05%
3 Rockies 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16%
4 Dodgers 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Monday, September 06, 2010

The Unspoiler



September 7th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres C.Kershaw vs M.Latos Padres 55.75% 58.49% SD 2-1


Current ROI: 2.27%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28
1 Padres 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54%
2 Giants 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68%
3 Rockies 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64%
4 Dodgers 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14%


MLB Scoreboard
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Sunday, September 05, 2010

Dodgers Never Die, They Just Fade Away



September 6th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres V.Padilla vs M.Latos Padres 60.63% 65.01% SD 4-2


Current ROI: 2.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27
1 Padres 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46%
2 Giants 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28%
3 Rockies 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70%
4 Dodgers 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57%


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