Friday, November 30, 2007

Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
See comments below...
Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix
  Penny Lowe Billingsley Schmidt Loaiza Guo Houlton Stults Kuroda Peavy
Penny NA .3403 .3804 .5192 .7853 .7809 1.1192 .8550 .4605 .9946
Lowe .3403 NA .3567 .6444 .3758 .8664 .6239 .4291 .2165 1.2509
Billingsley .3804 .3567 NA .2876 .4263 .4818 .6902 .5500 .2408 .8788
Schmidt .5192 .6444 .2876 NA .6841 .2102 .9839 .8967 .4509 .4811
Loaiza .7853 .3758 .4263 .6841 NA .7995 .2323 .1940 .2691 1.3179
Guo .7809 .8664 .4818 .2102 .7995 NA 1.0784 1.0710 .6094 .4127
Houlton 1.1193 .6239 .6902 .9839 .2323 1.0784 NA .1662 .5451 1.7185
Stults .8550 .4291 .5500 .8967 .1940 1.0710 .1662 NA .4434 1.6733
Kuroda .4605 .2165 .2408 .4509 .2691 .6094 .5451 .4434 NA .9795
Peavy .9946 1.2509 .8788 .4811 1.3179 .4127 1.7185 1.6733 .9795 NA


You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

Rank Pitchers Similarity Score
1 Houlton/Stults .1662
2 Loaiza/Stults .1940
3 Schmidt/Guo .2102
4 Lowe/Kuroda .2165
5 Loaiza/Houlton .2323
6 Billingsley/Kuroda .2408
7 Loaiza/Kuroda .2691
8 Billingsley/Schmidt .2876
9 Penny/Lowe .3403
10 Lowe/Billingsley .3567

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

2008 Player Projections

Matt Kemp
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James M.Kemp .322 .365 .508 .873
CHONE M.Kemp .289 .337 .467 .804
ZIPS M.Kemp .303 .348 .483 .831
Marcel M.Kemp .311 .356 .490 .846
PECOTA M.Kemp TBD TBD TBD TBD
Jeff Kent
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James J.Kent .290 .368 .486 .854
CHONE J.Kent .273 .356 .452 .808
ZIPS J.Kent .268 .352 .444 .796
Marcel J.Kent .281 .362 .464 .826
PECOTA J.Kent TBD TBD TBD TBD
Andre Ethier
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James A.Ethier .304 .371 .477 .847
CHONE A.Ethier .279 .348 .436 .784
ZIPS A.Ethier .288 .357 .459 .816
Marcel A.Ethier .295 .361 .466 .827
PECOTA A.Ethier TBD TBD TBD TBD
Russell Martin
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James R.Martin .292 .379 .456 .835
CHONE R.Martin .282 .376 .438 .814
ZIPS R.Martin .280 .365 .432 .797
Marcel R.Martin .293 .371 .459 .830
PECOTA R.Martin TBD TBD TBD TBD
Andy LaRoche
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James A.LaRoche .275 .367 .458 .825
CHONE A.LaRoche .268 .356 .455 .811
ZIPS A.LaRoche .256 .343 .431 .774
Marcel A.LaRoche .265 .354 .413 .767
PECOTA A.LaRoche TBD TBD TBD TBD
James Loney
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James J.Loney .302 .359 .465 .823
CHONE J.Loney .284 .347 .431 .778
ZIPS J.Loney .296 .350 .470 .820
Marcel J.Loney .315 .372 .514 .886
PECOTA J.Loney TBD TBD TBD TBD
Andruw Jones
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James A.Jones .253 .343 .491 .834
CHONE A.Jones .249 .345 .491 .836
ZIPS A.Jones .249 .344 .503 .847
Marcel A.Jones .248 .337 .479 .816
PECOTA A.Jones TBD TBD TBD TBD
Nomar Garciappara
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James N.Garciappara .292 .347 .451 .798
CHONE N.Garciappara .282 .340 .423 .763
ZIPS N.Garciappara .268 .329 .384 .713
Marcel N.Garciappara .281 .336 .425 .761
PECOTA N.Garciappara TBD TBD TBD TBD
Rafael Furcal
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James R.Furcal .286 .352 .403 .755
CHONE R.Furcal .277 .348 .394 .742
ZIPS R.Furcal .276 .346 .387 .733
Marcel R.Furcal .281 .348 .407 .755
PECOTA R.Furcal TBD TBD TBD TBD
Delwyn Young
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James D.Young .258 .307 .429 .736
CHONE D.Young .258 .307 .429 .736
ZIPS D.Young .255 .295 .408 .703
Marcel D.Young .286 .350 .464 .815
PECOTA D.Young TBD TBD TBD TBD
Tony Abreu
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James T.Abreu .288 .332 .399 .731
CHONE T.Abreu .275 .321 .394 .715
ZIPS T.Abreu .267 .313 .362 .675
Marcel T.Abreu .280 .337 .433 .770
PECOTA T.Abreu TBD TBD TBD TBD
Juan Pierre
System Player Ave OBP SLG OPS
Bill James J.Pierre .298 .343 .361 .703
CHONE J.Pierre .288 .333 .363 .696
ZIPS J.Pierre .277 .318 .347 .665
Marcel J.Pierre .284 .329 .370 .699
PECOTA J.Pierre TBD TBD TBD TBD

Pitchers

Brad Penny
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 195 6.42 2.24 0.39 0.74 3.83 1.33
CHONE 195 6.18 1.97 0.34 0.83 4.11 1.38
ZIPS 200 6.39 2.33 0.41 0.72 3.82 1.33
Baseball HQ 203 6.10 1.96 0.33 0.9 3.90 1.36
Derek Lowe
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 212 5.69 1.96 0.34 0.81 3.78 1.31
CHONE 207 5.96 2.21 0.36 0.78 3.70 1.30
ZIPS 210 5.79 2.33 0.37 0.94 3.99 1.30
Baseball HQ 218 5.90 2.31 0.37 0.7 3.84 1.31
Chad Billingsley
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 185 8.66 2.09 0.50 0.88 3.79 1.35
CHONE 147 8.51 2.11 0.50 1.04 3.98 1.37
ZIPS 180 7.70 1.97 0.42 0.95 4.00 1.40
Baseball HQ 189 8.30 2.05 0.47 0.8 3.52 1.32
Jason Schmidt
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 145 8.63 2.48 0.57 0.81 3.41 1.25
CHONE 117 7.54 1.92 0.40 1.08 4.15 1.38
ZIPS 119 8.55 2.26 0.53 0.91 4.08 1.36
Baseball HQ 145 7.8 1.92 0.41 1.20 4.41 1.41
Esteban Loaiza
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 120 6.15 2.41 0.40 1.05 4.35 1.39
CHONE 126 5.93 1.93 0.32 1.14 4.57 1.40
ZIPS 127 6.38 1.48 0.37 1.28 4.89 1.43
Baseball HQ 174 4.80 1.48 0.17 1.20 4.91 1.51
Hiroki Kuroda
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
CHONE 181 6.81 2.80 0.49 1.04 3.78 1.23
ZIPS 180 5.70 3.08 0.43 1.05 3.92 1.24
Baseball HQ TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
HongZhi Guo
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
CHONE 66 9.00 2.28 0.56 0.95 4.09 1.38
ZIPS 78 9.23 2.42 0.60 1.04 4.38 1.37
Baseball HQ 73 10.90 2.51 0.73 0.60 4.32 1.35
D.J. Houlton
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 34 6.88 2.00 0.38 1.32 4.76 1.44
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 138 6.37 1.83 0.32 1.50 5.15 1.46
Baseball HQ 44 5.50 1.35 0.16 1.40 5.32 1.84
Eric Stults
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 53 7.30 2.05 0.42 1.02 5.26 1.57
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 147 6.31 1.81 0.31 1.29 5.14 1.50
Baseball HQ 29 6.20 1.54 0.24 0.60 4.34 1.52
Takashi Saito
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 68 9.00 3.78 0.74 0.93 3.31 1.13
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 66 10.91 4.44 0.94 0.68 2.05 1.00
Baseball HQ 58 10.4 4.19 0.88 0.90 2.79 1.03
Jonathon Broxton
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 83 11.17 3.32 0.87 0.54 3.04 1.19
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 96 10.7 3.97 0.90 0.75 2.91 1.14
Baseball HQ 58 10.9 3.89 0.90 0.60 2.64 1.12
Joe Beimel
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 66 5.05 1.37 0.15 0.68 4.09 1.45
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 73 5.18 1.68 0.23 0.62 3.95 1.37
Baseball HQ 44 4.90 1.50 0.18 0.80 4.30 1.36
Eric Hull
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 72 8.25 2.06 0.47 0.88 4.00 1.39
Baseball HQ 29 8.10 1.86 0.41 0.60 3.72 1.72
Rudy Seanez
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 78 9.69 2.33 0.62 1.04 4.15 1.41
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 65 9.28 2.39 0.60 1.11 4.15 1.40
Baseball HQ 44 8.20 2.00 0.45 1.00 3.90 1.36
Scott Proctor
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James 80 7.65 2.06 0.44 1.46 4.50 1.38
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 93 8.13 2.15 0.48 1.55 4.65 1.40
Baseball HQ 58 6.80 1.69 0.31 1.40 4.34 1.48
Jonathon Meloan
System IP K/9 K/BB K-BB/IP HR/9 ERA WHIP
Bill James TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
CHONE TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD
ZIPS 72 9.50 2.38 0.61 1.75 5.00 1.40
Baseball HQ 44 9.80 2.09 0.57 1.00 3.89 1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study