Friday, June 15, 2012

DodgerSims Is On Vacation




And yes, Mike Marshall the former outfielder of the Los Angeles Dodgers use to date the lead singer of the Go-Go's. Enjoy the next week of the baseball season while I am here.

June 15th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
ARILAATrevor Cahill vs Dan HarenLAA61.01%56.91%TBD
BALATLBrian Matusz vs Tommy HansonATL61.01%62.32%TBD
CHALANChris Sale vs Clayton KershawLAN55.26%52.96%TBD
HOUTEXJordan Lyles vs Yu DarvishTEX72.38%69.99%TBD
FLATBCarlos Zambrano vs Matt MooreTB56.62%NATBD
PITCLEJames McDonald vs Justin MastersonCLE54.85%56.60%TBD
BOSCHNDaisuke Matsuzaka vs Ryan DempsterBOS50.86%47.97%TBD
COLDETJeff Francis vs Casey CrosbyDET59.10%55.78%TBD
NYAWASPhil Hughes vs Gio GonzalezWAS54.23%62.93%TBD
PHITORVance Worley vs Drew HutchisonTOR54.65%48.65%TBD
CINNYNBronson Arroyo vs Dillon GeeNYN52.49%56.20%TBD
MILMINYovanni Gallardo vs Francisco LirianoMIL52.72%50.46%TBD
KCSTLVin Mazzaro vs Kyle LohseSTL61.32%62.10%TBD
SDOAKAnthony Bass vs Travis BlackleyOAK53.60%48.26%TBD
SFSEARyan Vogelsong vs Jason VargasSF50.62%48.42%TBD

Previous Day: No bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Notes: Texas Rangers are the largest favorite of any game so far this season.  The White Sox vs Dodgers game has the 4th lowest run total line of any game so far this season.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, June 14, 2012

June 14th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
ARITEXDaniel Hudson vs Scott FeldmanTEXTBD59.44%---
CLECINJosh Tomlin vs Mike LeakeCINTBD52.88%---
MILKCShaun Marcum vs Luke HochevarMIL52.15%NA---
NYNTBJohan Santana vs Jeremy HellicksonNYNTBD53.90%---
DETCHNJustin Verlander vs Travis WoodDETTBD62.90%---
OAKCOLJarrod Parker vs Alex WhiteCOLTBD56.99%---
HOUSFWandy Rodriguez vs Barry ZitoSFTBD58.39%---
PITBALErik Bedard vs Tommy HunterBALTBD56.44%---
PHIMINJoe Blanton vs P.J. WaltersMINTBD50.76%---
CHASTLGavin Floyd vs Jake WestbrookSTLTBD62.52%---
SDSEAEdinson Volquez vs Erasmo RamirezSEATBD53.38%---

Previous Day: +1.7 units
Current ROI: 4.00%

Note: Vacation coming up.  Simulations will go dark this weekend and all of next week!

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

June 13th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
LAALANC.J. Wilson vs Nathan EovaldiLAA57.36%56.70%---
ARITEXWade Miley vs Matt HarrisonTEX63.03%63.39%---
CLECINDerek Lowe vs Mat LatosCINOFF55.27%---
MILKCRandy Wolf vs Luke HochevarKC51.57%58.27%KC, 1.2
NYAATLHiroki Kuroda vs Tim HudsonATL52.94%60.23%ATL, 1.3
NYNTBR.A. Dickey vs David PriceTB60.40%57.30%NYN, 0.4
WASTORStephen Strasburg vs Kyle DrabekWAS57.72%60.81%WAS, 0.6
PITBALKevin Correia vs Brian MatuszBAL55.65%62.50%BAL, 1.3
BOSFLAFelix Doubront vs Ricky NolascoFLA51.34%55.62%FLA, 0.7
DETCHNRick Porcello vs Matt GarzaCHN52.49%50.36%DET, 0.3
PHIMINCole Hamels vs P.J. WaltersPHI59.92%56.44%MIN, 0.5
CHASTLJake Peavy vs Lance LynnSTL53.38%60.80%---
OAKCOLTom Milone vs Josh OutmanCOLOFF61.01%---
SDSEAJason Marquis vs Hector NoesiSEA58.93%53.18%SD, 0.8
HOUSFJ.A. Happ vs Matt CainSF67.11%63.95%HOU, 0.4

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

June 12th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAALANJerome Williams vs Aaron HarangLANTBD52.63%TBD
ARITEXIan Kennedy vs Colby LewisTEXTBD62.71%TBD
CLECINJeanmar Gomez vs Johnny CuetoCINTBD62.68%TBD
MILKCZach Greinke vs Luis MendozaMILTBD58.58%TBD
NYAATLC.C. Sabathia vs Mike MinorNYATBD53.27%TBD
NYNTBChris Young vs Alex CobbTBTBD58.38%TBD
PITBALBrad Lincoln vs Wei-Yin ChenBALTBD62.80%TBD
WASTORChienMing Wang vs Henderson AlvarezTORTBDNATBD
BOSFLAClay Buchholz vs Mark BuehrleFLATBD58.37%TBD
DETCHNMax Scherzer vs Paul MaholmDETTBD56.47%TBD
PHIMINKyle Kendrick vs Nick BlackburnPHITBD50.73%TBD
CHASTLJose Quintana vs Adam WainwrightSTLTBD65.65%TBD
OAKCOLBartolo Colon vs Jeremy GuthrieCOLTBD55.79%TBD
SDSEAClayton Richard vs Felx HernandezSEATBD53.87%TBD
HOUSFBud Norris vs Madison BumgarnerSFTBD63.13%TBD

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, June 10, 2012

June 11th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAALANGarrett Richards vs Chris CapuanoLAN52.27%48.81%TBD
NYAATLIvan Nova vs Randall DelgadoNYA51.81%47.96%TBD
WASTOREdwin Jackson vs Brandon MorrowTOR60.71%57.95%TBD
BOSFLAJosh Beckett vs Josh JohnsonBOS50.74%NATBD

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

June 10th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
DETCINDrew Smyly vs Homer BaileyCIN55.46%56.44%---
HOUCHALucas Harrell vs Phil HumberCHA60.08%57.96%---
NYNNYAJohn Niese vs Andy PettitteNYA63.03%61.55%---
TORATLRicky Romero vs Julio TeheranTOR50.86%42.14%---
WASBOSJordan Zimmerman vs Jon LesterBOS57.17%52.95%---
TBFLAJames Shields vs Anibal SanchezFLA52.49%NA---
KCPITBruce Chen vs A.J. BurnettPIT54.44%53.65%---
PHIBALCliff Lee vs Jason HammelPHI56.43%52.44%---
CHNMINRyan Dempster vs Francisco LirianoMIN56.04%56.15%---
SDMILAnthony Bass vs Yovanni GallardoMIL60.55%56.43%---
CLESTLUbaldo Jimenez vs Joe KellySTL50.62%58.11%---
LAACOLErvin Santana vs Chris FriedrichCOL50.86%51.47%---
TEXSFAlexi Ogando vs Tim LincecumTEX56.24%47.92%---
LANSEAChad Billingsley vs Blake BeavanLAN50.62%52.86%---
OAKARITravis Blackley vs Joe SaundersARI58.76%61.15%---

Saturday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been a slightly positive day.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, June 09, 2012

June 9th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAACOLDan Haren vs Jeff FrancisLAA58.51%62.02%TBD
DETCINJustin Verlander vs Bronson ArroyoDET58.33%51.30%TBD
HOUCHAJordan Lyles vs Chris SaleCHA68.75%65.09%TBD
TORATLDrew Hutchison vs Tommy HansonATL57.08%60.14%TBD
WASBOSGio Gonzalez vs Daisuke MatsuzakaWAS52.15%58.32%TBD
CHNMINJeff Samardzija vs Scott DiamondMIN56.52%54.90%TBD
TEXSFScott Feldman vs Ryan VogelsongSF51.92%54.33%TBD
PHIBALVance Worley vs Tommy HunterPHI51.46%48.19%TBD
SDMILAndrew Cashner vs Michael FiersMIL58.51%54.19%TBD
TBFLAMatt Moore vs Carlos ZambranoFLA51.69%NATBD
CLESTLJustin Masterson vs Kyle LohseSTL56.90%56.88%TBD
KCPITVin Mazzaro vs James McDonaldPIT57.81%58.86%TBD
LANSEAClayton Kershaw vs Jason VargasLAN54.95%53.18%TBD
NYNNYADillon Gee vs Phil HughesNYA60.63%56.69%TBD
OAKARIJarrod Parker vs Trevor CahillARI57.63%55.31%TBD

Friday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been pretty even on the day, a fraction of a unit down.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Friday, June 08, 2012

June 8th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
DETCINRick Porcello vs Mat LatosCIN57.36%58.08%---
HOUCHAWandy Rodriguez vs Gavin FloydCHA57.17%57.21%---
TORATLKyle Drabek vs Brandon BeachyATL62.34%66.53%---
WASBOSStephen Strasburg vs Felix DoubrontWAS50.74%52.56%---
KCPITLuke Hochevar vs Erik BedardPIT57.36%51.51%---
NYNNYAJohan Santana vs Hiroki KurodaNYA55.85%50.62%---
PHIBALJoe Blanton vs Jake ArrietaBAL54.44%56.35%---
TBFLAJeremy Hellickson vs Ricky NolascoFLA54.02%57.29%---
CHNMINTravis Wood vs P.J. WaltersMIN55.06%55.95%---
SDMILEdinson Volquez vs Shaun MarcumMIL59.76%58.11%---
CLESTLJosh Tomlin vs Jake WestbrookSTL58.59%54.36%---
LAACOLC.J. Wilson vs Alex WhiteLAA56.43%NA---
OAKARITom Milone vs Daniel HudsonARI58.76%55.60%---
LANSEANathan Eovaldi vs Kevin MillwoodSEA51.10%55.47%---
TEXSFMatt Harrison vs Barry ZitoTEX55.85%59.41%---

Thursday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been a slightly down day. Interleague play starts back up. Let's see how good the calibration is.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Wednesday, June 06, 2012

June 7th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
BALBOSBrian Matusz vs Clay BuchholzBOS58.25%52.95%---
PITCINKevin Correia vs Mike LeakeCIN60.40%63.15%---
SFSDMatt Cain vs Jason MarquisSF57.54%57.10%---
TORCHAHenderson Alvarez vs Jake PeavyCHA58.59%63.03%---
CLEDETDerek Lowe vs Casey CrosbyDET52.49%49.64%---
LANPHIAaron Harang vs Cole HamelsPHI63.03%63.09%---
NYNWASR.A. Dickey vs ChienMing WangNYN53.60%52.21%---
CHNMILMatt Garza vs Randy WolfMIL52.04%55.20%---
TEXOAKYu Darvish vs Brandon McCarthyTEX60.40%58.20%---
TBNYADavid Price vs C.C. SabathiaNYA58.42%61.06%---
ATLFLAMike Minor vs Mark BuehrleFLA56.62%58.35%---
STLHOULance Lynn vs J.A. HappSTL59.60%58.62%---

Wednesday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been a slight down day had I done so.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

June 6th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
BALBOSWei-Yin Chen vs Josh BeckettBOS61.83%58.29%---
MINKCNick Blackburn vs Felipe PaulinoKC60.55%60.99%---
PITCINBrad Lincoln vs Johnny CuetoCIN63.30%67.98%---
SEALAAHector Noesi vs Jerome WilliamsLAA59.76%63.05%---
SFSDMadison Bumgarner vs Clayton RichardSF53.81%50.59%---
TORCHABrandon Morrow vs Jose QuintanaTOR52.72%52.26%---
CLEDETJeanmar Gomez vs Max ScherzerDET60.86%60.65%---
LANPHIChris Capuano vs Kyle KendrickPHI52.27%56.30%---
NYNWASJeremy Hefner vs Edwin JacksonWAS59.92%62.42%---
TBNYAAlex Cobb vs Ivan NovaNYA58.93%60.37%---
ATLFLARandall Delgado vs Josh JohnsonFLA59.43%61.12%---
STLHOUAdam Wainwright vs Bud NorrisSTL56.80%51.25%---
CHNMILPaul Maholm vs Zach GreinkeMIL66.44%71.52%---
COLARIJosh Outman vs Wade MileyARI57.17%NA---
TEXOAKColby Lewis vs Bartolo ColonTEX58.59%59.91%---

Tuesday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
No bets yesterday. Would've been an even day had I bet. The biggest bet would've been on the Nationals to win and they pulled out a come from behind win. The toughest loss would've been the Astros blowing a golden opportunity to knock off a suddenly shaky Jaime Garcia.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Monday, June 04, 2012

June 5th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
BALBOSJason Hammel vs Jon LesterBOS58.93%56.37%---
MINKCFrancisco Liriano vs Bruce ChenKC56.43%60.24%---
PITCINA.J. Burnett vs Homer BaileyCIN57.89%58.31%---
SEALAABlake Beavan vs Garrett RichardsLAA58.59%58.34%---
SFSDTim Lincecum vs Anthony BassSF50.86%48.07%---
TORCHARicky Romero vs Phil HumberTOR50.25%47.32%---
CLEDETUbaldo Jimenez vs Drew SmylyDET58.76%63.94%---
LANPHIChad Billingsley vs Cliff LeePHI62.89%64.20%---
NYNWASChris Young vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS58.93%65.42%---
TBNYAJames Shields vs Andy PettitteNYA54.44%60.30%---
ATLFLATim Hudson vs Anibal SanchezFLA54.85%57.47%---
STLHOUJaime Garcia vs Lucas HarrellSTL57.17%62.62%---
CHNMILRyan Dempster vs Yovanni GallardoMIL59.27%57.61%---
COLARIJeremy Guthrie vs Ian KennedyARI58.93%55.23%---
TEXOAKDerek Holland vs Travis BlackleyTEX60.55%60.40%---

Monday's Results: -4.3 units
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
Mauled!  One run games on big bets killing me of late.  Taking the day off to stretch out what may possibly be the last week of beating Vegas.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Sunday, June 03, 2012

June 4th Simulation




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
MINKCCole DeVries vs Wil SmithKC57.17%60.18%KC, 1.1
SEALAAJason Vargas vs Ervin SantanaLAA58.93%61.84%LAA, 1.2
TEXOAKScott Feldman vs Jarrod ParkerTEX55.85%51.74%OAK, 1.2
STLNYNKyle Lohse vs Dillon GeeNYNOFF51.42%---
CHNSFJeff Samardzija vs Ryan VogelsongSF56.62%52.33%CHN, 1.3
LANPHIClayton Kershaw vs Vance WorleyLAN53.16%46.38%PHI, 2.2
COLARIChris Friedrich vs Joe SaundersARI55.26%NA---

Sunday's Results: -3.2 units
Last Weeks Results: +0.5 units
Current ROI: 4.59%

Yesterday's Synopsis
Lost 3.2 units yesterday mostly on the back of the Nationals 3-2 loss to the Braves which had a big 4.1 unit bet riding. The Nationals got off to a quick start and took a first inning 2-0 lead. Tommy Hanson who has been pretty shaky this year was facing Gio Gonzalez who had been red hot coming in to the game. The simulator obviously liked this game as a big betting opportunity but Gio Gonzalez did not pitch particularly well and Tommy Hanson settled down and the Braves held on for a 3-2 win. Had the Nationals won this game, I would have had around a 3.5 unit gain for the day - but that is how it goes with baseball.
The games that helped offset the loss from the Nationals game were the Pirates winning a 1.1 unit wager as +108 road dogs with James McDonald facing a Brewers lineup without either Ryan Braun or Aramis Ramirez. The Twins won for the simulator as a +134 underdog against the Indians and the Blue Jays won a 1.7 unit bet as a slight favorite facing Daniel Bard who continues to pitch like crap this season.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

June 3rd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbUnit Bets
ARISDTrevor Cahill vs Eric StultsARI52.94%49.12%SD, 1.2
BALTBJake Arrieta vs Matt MooreTB57.17%52.84%BAL, 1.3
MINCLEScott Diamond vs Justin MastersonCLE57.72%53.29%MIN, 1.3
OAKKCTom Milone vs Vin MazzaroKC55.06%55.56%---
SEACHAKevin Millwood vs Chris SaleCHA63.57%62.04%SEA, 0.3
TEXLAAMatt Harrison vs Dan HarenLAA52.27%52.46%---
NYADETPhil Hughes vs Justin VerlanderDET63.03%62.51%---
BOSTORDaniel Bard vs Drew HutchisonTOR51.10%56.10%TOR, 1.7
STLNYNJake Westbrook vs John NieseSTL50.74%54.25%STL, 1.3
ATLWASTommy Hanson vs Gio GonzalezWAS57.36%66.92%WAS, 4.1
FLAPHICarlos Zambrano vs Joe BlantonPHI50.62%50.66%---
CINHOUBronson Arroyo vs Jordan LylesCINOFF54.24%---
PITMILJames McDonald vs Michael FiersMIL52.49%47.59%PIT, 1.6
LANCOLNathan Eovaldi vs Alex WhiteCOL53.81%55.83%COL, 0.6
CHNSFTravis Wood vs Barry ZitoSF58.76%56.41%CHN, 0.6

Saturday's Results: -0.1 units
Current ROI: 5.38%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Saturday, June 02, 2012

June 2nd Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbUnits Bet
ARISDDaniel Hudson vs Edinson VolquezSD50.74%57.57%SD, 1.5
BALTBBrian Matusz vs Jeremy HellicksonTB60.24%52.92%BAL, 1.0
LANCOLAaron Harang vs Juan NicasioCOL57.17%57.53%---
MINCLEP.J. Walters vs Josh TomlinCLE56.04%60.13%CLE, 0.9
OAKKCBrandon McCarthy vs Luke HochevarKC54.23%57.29%KC, 0.6
SEACHAHector Noesi vs Gavin FloydCHA59.76%61.33%CHA, 0.3
TEXLAAYu Darvish vs C.J. WilsonLAA50.25%50.21%---
BOSTORFelix Doubront vs Kyle DrabekBOS52.94%51.20%TOR, 0.2
ATLWASBrandon Beachy vs Stephen StrasburgWAS58.07%57.98%---
FLAPHIRicky Nolasco vs Cole HamelsPHI59.10%58.95%---
CINHOUMat Latos vs Wandy RodriguezCIN54.65%52.46%HOU, 0.3
NYADETHiroki Kuroda vs Rick PorcelloNYA53.16%47.99%DET, 1.0
PITMILErik Bedard vs Shaun MarcumMIL58.25%59.68%MIL, 0.3
STLNYNLance Lynn vs R.A. DickeySTL52.94%50.44%NYN, 0.4
CHNSFMatt Garza vs Matt CainSF60.08%63.19%SF, 0.7

Friday's Results: +0.5 units
Current ROI: 5.48%
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups

Friday, June 01, 2012

June 1st Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbUnits Bet
ARISDWade Miley vs Clayton RichardARI53.60%49.07%SD, 1.2
BALTBWei-Yin Chen vs David PriceTB62.48%56.57%BAL, 1.2
MINCLECarl Pavano vs Derek LoweCLE57.89%54.08%MIN, 0.9
OAKKCBartolo Colon vs Felipe PaulinoKC58.07%59.90%KC, 0.3
SEACHAFelx Hernandez vs Jake PeavyCHA56.99%57.90%---
TEXLAAColby Lewis vs Jerome WilliamsTEX53.38%53.73%---
ATLWASMike Minor vs Stephen StrasburgWAS61.46%64.59%WAS, 0.9
FLAPHIMark Buehrle vs Kyle KendrickFLA50.86%47.60%PHI, 0.7
NYADETC.C. Sabathia vs Casey CrosbyNYA61.69%55.54%DET, 1.3
BOSTORClay Buchholz vs Henderson AlvarezTOR55.06%51.48%BOS, 0.8
STLNYNAdam Wainwright vs Johan SantanaSTL50.86%45.29%NYN, 1.4
CINHOUMike Leake vs J.A. HappCIN53.81%55.02%---
PITMILKevin Correia vs Randy WolfMIL56.04%59.85%MIL, 1.0
LANCOLChris Capuano vs Josh OutmanCOL51.57%53.53%COL, 0.3
CHNSFPaul Maholm vs Madison BumgarnerSF61.32%62.60%---

Thursday's Results: No bets
Current ROI: 5.47%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups