Sunday, June 03, 2012

June 3rd Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbUnit Bets
ARISDTrevor Cahill vs Eric StultsARI52.94%49.12%SD, 1.2
BALTBJake Arrieta vs Matt MooreTB57.17%52.84%BAL, 1.3
MINCLEScott Diamond vs Justin MastersonCLE57.72%53.29%MIN, 1.3
OAKKCTom Milone vs Vin MazzaroKC55.06%55.56%---
SEACHAKevin Millwood vs Chris SaleCHA63.57%62.04%SEA, 0.3
TEXLAAMatt Harrison vs Dan HarenLAA52.27%52.46%---
NYADETPhil Hughes vs Justin VerlanderDET63.03%62.51%---
BOSTORDaniel Bard vs Drew HutchisonTOR51.10%56.10%TOR, 1.7
STLNYNJake Westbrook vs John NieseSTL50.74%54.25%STL, 1.3
ATLWASTommy Hanson vs Gio GonzalezWAS57.36%66.92%WAS, 4.1
FLAPHICarlos Zambrano vs Joe BlantonPHI50.62%50.66%---
CINHOUBronson Arroyo vs Jordan LylesCINOFF54.24%---
PITMILJames McDonald vs Michael FiersMIL52.49%47.59%PIT, 1.6
LANCOLNathan Eovaldi vs Alex WhiteCOL53.81%55.83%COL, 0.6
CHNSFTravis Wood vs Barry ZitoSF58.76%56.41%CHN, 0.6

Saturday's Results: -0.1 units
Current ROI: 5.38%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups


Anonymous said...

Curious how much YTD vs. pre-season projection you are using to project starting pitcher skill in a given game. I am guessing you are using 100% YTD (xFIP, FIP or SIERA or whatever) at this point of the season?

Xeifrank said...

Not 100% YTD but pretty heavily weighted on 2012 stats, but it goes on a case by case basis depending on innings pitched and there is some regression involved in there too. Can't give away all the secret sauce though. This is the most important thing that Vegas gets wrong.