Sunday, June 03, 2012

June 4th Simulation

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
MINKCCole DeVries vs Wil SmithKC57.17%60.18%KC, 1.1
SEALAAJason Vargas vs Ervin SantanaLAA58.93%61.84%LAA, 1.2
TEXOAKScott Feldman vs Jarrod ParkerTEX55.85%51.74%OAK, 1.2
STLNYNKyle Lohse vs Dillon GeeNYNOFF51.42%---
CHNSFJeff Samardzija vs Ryan VogelsongSF56.62%52.33%CHN, 1.3
LANPHIClayton Kershaw vs Vance WorleyLAN53.16%46.38%PHI, 2.2
COLARIChris Friedrich vs Joe SaundersARI55.26%NA---

Sunday's Results: -3.2 units
Last Weeks Results: +0.5 units
Current ROI: 4.59%

Yesterday's Synopsis
Lost 3.2 units yesterday mostly on the back of the Nationals 3-2 loss to the Braves which had a big 4.1 unit bet riding. The Nationals got off to a quick start and took a first inning 2-0 lead. Tommy Hanson who has been pretty shaky this year was facing Gio Gonzalez who had been red hot coming in to the game. The simulator obviously liked this game as a big betting opportunity but Gio Gonzalez did not pitch particularly well and Tommy Hanson settled down and the Braves held on for a 3-2 win. Had the Nationals won this game, I would have had around a 3.5 unit gain for the day - but that is how it goes with baseball.
The games that helped offset the loss from the Nationals game were the Pirates winning a 1.1 unit wager as +108 road dogs with James McDonald facing a Brewers lineup without either Ryan Braun or Aramis Ramirez. The Twins won for the simulator as a +134 underdog against the Indians and the Blue Jays won a 1.7 unit bet as a slight favorite facing Daniel Bard who continues to pitch like crap this season.

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