Monday, June 04, 2012

June 5th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbBet Units
BALBOSJason Hammel vs Jon LesterBOS58.93%56.37%---
MINKCFrancisco Liriano vs Bruce ChenKC56.43%60.24%---
PITCINA.J. Burnett vs Homer BaileyCIN57.89%58.31%---
SEALAABlake Beavan vs Garrett RichardsLAA58.59%58.34%---
SFSDTim Lincecum vs Anthony BassSF50.86%48.07%---
TORCHARicky Romero vs Phil HumberTOR50.25%47.32%---
CLEDETUbaldo Jimenez vs Drew SmylyDET58.76%63.94%---
LANPHIChad Billingsley vs Cliff LeePHI62.89%64.20%---
NYNWASChris Young vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS58.93%65.42%---
TBNYAJames Shields vs Andy PettitteNYA54.44%60.30%---
ATLFLATim Hudson vs Anibal SanchezFLA54.85%57.47%---
STLHOUJaime Garcia vs Lucas HarrellSTL57.17%62.62%---
CHNMILRyan Dempster vs Yovanni GallardoMIL59.27%57.61%---
COLARIJeremy Guthrie vs Ian KennedyARI58.93%55.23%---
TEXOAKDerek Holland vs Travis BlackleyTEX60.55%60.40%---

Monday's Results: -4.3 units
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yesterday's Synopsis
Mauled!  One run games on big bets killing me of late.  Taking the day off to stretch out what may possibly be the last week of beating Vegas.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard
MLB Depth Charts
Daily Baseball Lineups


Anonymous said...

do vegas bookmakers run their own simulations like you to come up with their openers?

Xeifrank said...

To tell you the truth I don't know, but I'd say the chances are slim to none that they run game simulations. I'm sure they have their own models that are obviously pretty good. You can do much more with a good game simulation, but your simulator and the data you input in to it better be very very good. Mine is good, but not good enough to set lines with as smart bettors would easily pick off the games it is wrong on.