2015 Angels Best Lineup (vs LHP)

.
After looking at the Angels best lineup vs RHP, I am now going to use my simulator to take a look at the best lineup vs LHP. The only change to the starting nine is that I will remove Matt Joyce at DH with the right handed hitting C.J. Cron. My simulator plays actual games and takes pretty much everything (meaningful) into account. This is only an exercise and I am not in any way advocating that the Angels should use these top ranked lineups. I am listing the top five ranked lineups vs LHP along with tables that used the Top 100 lineups to show trends of most common lineup patterns.

Most Optimal Lineups vs LHP
Freese-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Calhoun-Cron-Rutledge-Iannetta-Hamilton
Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Freese-Aybar-Hamilton-Cron-Rutledge-Iannetta
Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Cron-Hamilton-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Calhoun
Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Cron-Hamilton-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese-Rutledge
Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Cron-Iannetta-Hamilton-Freese-Aybar-Rutledge

.
.
    Batting Order Location Frequency Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Trout	47	36	4	4	9	0	0	0	0
Calhoun	13	31	15	0	13	6	7	7	8
Pujols	8	10	30	43	9	0	0	0	0
Freese	12	9	12	17	8	11	10	12	9
Cron	5	3	12	23	10	7	15	17	8
Hamilton	3	2	12	13	14	16	17	7	16
Aybar	12	9	15	0	12	17	8	15	12
Rutledge	0	0	0	0	13	25	23	18	21
Iannetta	0	0	0	0	12	18	20	24	26

.
.
Most Common First Two Paired Batters In Lineup

1st	2nd	Count
Trout	Calhoun	24
Freese	Trout	10
Aybar	Trout	9
Trout	Freese	8
Calhoun	Trout	8
Trout	Pujols	7
Trout	Aybar	5
Pujols	Trout	5
Calhoun	Aybar	3
Aybar	Calhoun	3
Freese	Calhoun	2
Pujols	Cron	2
Cron	Trout	2
Cron	Pujols	2
Hamilton	Trout	2

.
Most Common First Three Consecutive Batters In Lineup

1st	2nd	3rd	Count
Trout	Calhoun	Pujols	13
Aybar	Trout	Calhoun	5
Trout	Calhoun	Freese	4
Trout	Calhoun	Aybar	4
Freese	Trout	Aybar	4
Trout	Calhoun	Cron	3
Freese	Trout	Hamilton	3
Calhoun	Trout	Pujols	3
Trout	Pujols	Calhoun	3
Pujols	Trout	Calhoun	3
Aybar	Trout	Pujols	2
Trout	Freese	Calhoun	2
Trout	Freese	Pujols	2
Trout	Freese	Cron	2
Trout	Freese	Hamilton	2
Calhoun	Trout	Aybar	2
Calhoun	Trout	Freese	2
Trout	Pujols	Freese	2
Trout	Aybar	Pujols	2
Pujols	Trout	Hamilton	2

.
Most Common 3-4-5 Batters In Lineup

3rd	4th	5th	Count
Pujols	Freese	Aybar	4
Pujols	Cron	Hamilton	3
Aybar	Pujols	Cron	3
Calhoun	Pujols	Cron	3
Calhoun	Pujols	Rutledge	3
Calhoun	Cron	Hamilton	3
Freese	Pujols	Cron	3
Cron	Pujols	Calhoun	3
Pujols	Hamilton	Freese	2
Pujols	Hamilton	Iannetta	2
Pujols	Freese	Iannetta	2
Pujols	Cron	Rutledge	2
Pujols	Cron	Iannetta	2
Pujols	Cron	Freese	2
Aybar	Pujols	Freese	2
Aybar	Pujols	Calhoun	2
Aybar	Pujols	Trout	2
Calhoun	Pujols	Hamilton	2
Freese	Pujols	Hamilton	2
Cron	Pujols	Hamilton	2
Hamilton	Pujols	Calhoun	2
Hamilton	Pujols	Aybar	2
Aybar	Cron	Pujols	2

.
Note: All table counts are out of Top 100 most optimal lineups.
.

2015 Angels Best Lineup (vs RHP)

Now I move on to the best lineups for the Angels.  I am using my simulator to see what batting order it thinks gives the Angels the best chance of winning.  Methodology: Go through each possible lineup given the nine most likely starters as listed by MLB Depth Charts website and have the simulator play tens of thousands of games using each lineup against a fictitious but static opponent and see which Angels lineup wins the most games. Now keep in mind there are nine factorial (or 362,880) possible lineups. My simulator is fast, but it is not fast enough to look at all possible lineups while simulating a high enough sample size of games to get a reliable result. So what I did was put in a few limitations, like not allowing a lineup that had Mike Trout batting 8th or 9th and not allowing a lineup that had Albert Pujols batting 8th or 9th and not allowing lineups that had left handed hitters hitting back to back (unless they were paired batting 9th and 1st). This cut down on the possible number of lineups but still gave me too many lineups. So I then took a random sample of 10,000 lineups that met the filter I was using. So there still may be a few good lineups out there but of those 10,000 lineups here are what the simulator calculated to be the best 50. Keep in mind that the simulator is using 2015 Steamer Projections. The simulator plays actual baseball games and takes pretty much everything you can think of (that is meaningful) into account. The results are sorted by wins per 162 games behind the top ranking lineup.

12/28 Edit: @Tangotiger has asked to see how the worst lineup and the reverse of the best lineup do on this chart so they will be added to the bottom of the table.

                                                   Top 50 Lineups

Rank	Lineup	Wins/162 Behind
1	Calhoun-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Rutledge-Aybar-Iannetta	0
2	Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton	0.032
3	Trout-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge	0.146
4	Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese	0.152
5	Joyce-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta	0.156
6	Aybar-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta	0.166
7	Calhoun-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Hamilton	0.192
8	Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta	0.194
9	Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese	0.203
10	Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Calhoun-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese	0.246
11	Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce	0.277
12	Joyce-Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Iannetta-Hamilton-Rutledge-Aybar-Freese	0.287
13	Trout-Pujols-Freese-Hamilton-Iannetta-Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge	0.327
14	Trout-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton	0.334
15	Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Aybar-Hamilton-Iannetta-Rutledge-Freese-Joyce	0.341
16	Hamilton-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Aybar-Iannetta-Freese	0.347
17	Hamilton-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese-Aybar-Iannetta	0.381
18	Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Iannetta-Rutledge-Aybar-Joyce	0.411
19	Calhoun-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce	0.417
20	Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese-Aybar-Hamilton	0.420
21	Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Hamilton	0.452
22	Trout-Calhoun-Aybar-Pujols-Rutledge-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Joyce	0.456
23	Trout-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese	0.468
24	Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Rutledge-Calhoun-Freese	0.478
25	Pujols-Trout-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta-Rutledge-Joyce	0.48
26	Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Aybar	0.481
27	Joyce-Trout-Freese-Pujols-Hamilton-Aybar-Rutledge-Calhoun-Iannetta	0.482
28	Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge	0.485
29	Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Calhoun-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Hamilton	0.491
30	Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Calhoun-Aybar-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese	0.492
31	Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Aybar-Joyce	0.512
32	Calhoun-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Hamilton	0.522
33	Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Calhoun-Freese-Aybar	0.526
34	Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Hamilton-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Aybar	0.529
35	Joyce-Pujols-Freese-Calhoun-Trout-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar	0.535
36	Calhoun-Trout-Freese-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Rutledge-Hamilton	0.542
37	Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar	0.544
38	Freese-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Iannetta-Rutledge-Hamilton	0.545
39	Trout-Iannetta-Hamilton-Pujols-Rutledge-Calhoun-Aybar-Freese-Joyce	0.548
40	Freese-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Calhoun-Iannetta-Rutledge-Aybar	0.553
41	Calhoun-Freese-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar	0.569
42	Calhoun-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Iannetta-Freese-Joyce-Rutledge-Aybar	0.581
43	Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese	0.588
44	Iannetta-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Freese	0.612
45	Trout-Joyce-Freese-Pujols-Rutledge-Calhoun-Aybar-Iannetta-Hamilton	0.643
46	Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge	0.644
47	Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Aybar-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton	0.662
48	Calhoun-Trout-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese	0.675
49	Trout-Freese-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge	0.680
50	Calhoun-Rutledge-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Freese-Trout-Aybar-Iannetta	0.689
**	***	***
Reverse	Iannetta-Aybar-Rutledge-Freese-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun	1.771
Worst	Iannetta-Freese-Aybar-Rutledge-Calhoun-Hamilton-Pujols-Trout-Joyce	2.033

.
Analysis:  The first thing that sticks out to me is that the simulator does not like Mike Trout hitting 3rd or 4th for some reason.  It seems to only like him hitting 2nd, 1st or 5th.  It could be that it likes Mike Trout on base for when Albert Pujols and or Josh Hamilton coming up to bat.  And there are three players (Matt Joyce, Erick Aybar and David Freese) who get at least one listing at each spot in the batting order and Kole Calhoun slots into 8 different spots.   Pujols bats 3rd or 4th in 44 out of 50 scenarios and Trout bats 1st or 2nd in 39 out of 50.  Calhoun and Joyce are the next two hitters that you see at the top of the lineup frequently.  And at the bottom of the order you Iannetta, Freese, Rutledge and Aybar the most.
.
            Batting Order Frequency Table

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th
Calhoun	12	6	5	3	7	9	2	6	0
Joyce	11	5	3	8	6	4	4	1	8
Trout	17	22	0	0	10	0	1	0	0
Pujols	1	3	21	23	2	0	0	0	0
Hamilton	4	1	10	11	7	6	0	0	11
Aybar	2	6	6	4	5	4	5	10	8
Freese	2	2	5	1	1	8	8	12	11
Rutledge	0	4	0	0	7	10	15	9	5
Iannetta	1	1	0	0	5	9	15	12	7

.
.

Dodgers vs Angels - May 30th Simulation Results

Angels vs Dodgers - May 28th Simulation Results

Angels vs Dodgers - Simulation Results May 27th

Tommy Hanson, Why You Hating On Me

The big news for the Angels was the trade for Tommy Hanson. Hanson has had his ups and downs over the past year, regressing a little bit from the hot start his career got off to. Nonetheless, he has still posted some pretty good peripherals over the past two seasons. Looking at his numbers over the past two years, while giving more weight to the most recent season, Hanson has still put up some pretty decent numbers. Hanson's tendancy is to be more of a fly ball pitcher, which makes his higher than normal walk rate a little troubling... hopefully Angels Stadium can help suppress that. Overall, I think the trade was a good one for the Angels. They need starting pitching and Hanson is better than he is given credit for. His closest comparable pitchers "skill-wise" are strike-out machines who are a little on the wild side.

Top 20 Most Similar Starting Pitchers

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
NA	Tommy Hanson	8.79	3.52	1.00
1	Matt Moore	9.07	4.08	0.87
2	Erik Bedard	8.57	3.77	1.23
3	Brandon Beachy	9.20	3.07	0.87
4	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
5	Bud Norris	8.71	3.48	1.00
6	James McDonald	7.77	3.78	0.96
7	Felipe Paulino	8.95	3.61	1.23
8	Brandon Morrow	8.93	3.20	0.95
9	Ryan Dempster	8.18	3.10	1.23
10	Lance Lynn	9.19	3.28	1.39
11	J.A. Happ	8.48	3.93	0.97
12	Felix Doubront	9.34	3.97	1.32
13	Jarrod Parker	6.87	3.11	1.44
14	Josh Johnson	7.87	3.05	1.52
15	Clayton Kershaw	9.26	2.34	1.27
16	Justin Verlander	9.01	2.18	1.09
17	Tim Lincecum	9.17	4.03	1.49
18	Cole Hamels	8.71	2.06	1.36
19	Ryan Vogelsong	7.33	3.02	1.21
20	James Shields	8.55	2.32	1.59

July 19th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
ARI	CIN	Joe Saunders vs Mike Leake	CIN	57.54%	58.09%	- - -
CHA	BOS	Jose Quintana vs Clay Buchholz	BOS	54.85%	53.18%	CHA, 0.4u
CLE	TB	Ubaldo Jimenez vs David Price	TB	61.83%	63.47%	TB, 0.6u
HOU	SD	Lucas Harrell vs Edinson Volquez	SD	59.10%	56.71%	- - -
SEA	KC	Felix Hernandez vs Wil Smith	SEA	55.06%	53.48%	- - -
SF	ATL	Madison Bumgarner vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.94%	52.14%	- - -
NYN	WAS	R.A. Dickey vs Gio Gonzalez	WAS	55.65%	54.31%	NYN, 0.3u
LAA	DET	Jerome Williams vs Max Scherzer	DET	57.36%	58.28%	DET, 0.2u
BAL	MIN	Wei-Yin Chen vs Cole DeVries	MIN	50.86%	53.58%	MIN, 0.9u
FLA	CHN	Mark Buehrle vs Paul Maholm	FLA	54.65%	50.29%	CHN, 1.4u
NYA	OAK	Freddy Garcia vs A.J. Griffin	NYA	53.38%	51.36%	OAK, 0.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
NYN vs WAS, Under 7.5 -120, 1.4 units
HOU vs SD, Over 6.5 +100, 1.0 units
NYA vs OAK, Over 7.5 -115, 2.0 units

Previous Day: +4.5 units (risked 7.1u) ML and -1.5 units (risked 1.5u) on Run Totals
Current ML ROI: 3.61%

Notes: Big win on the Tigers game yesterday with the ML bet and almost nailed the Run Total bet too but the Angels tacked on a meaningless 9th inning run for the push. Big bet today is the Yankees and Athletics going over 7.5 runs and the Cubs beating the Marlins on the ML.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

June 13th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Bet Units
LAA	LAN	C.J. Wilson vs Nathan Eovaldi	LAA	57.36%	56.70%	---
ARI	TEX	Wade Miley vs Matt Harrison	TEX	63.03%	63.39%	---
CLE	CIN	Derek Lowe vs Mat Latos	CIN	OFF	55.27%	---
MIL	KC	Randy Wolf vs Luke Hochevar	KC	51.57%	58.27%	KC, 1.2
NYA	ATL	Hiroki Kuroda vs Tim Hudson	ATL	52.94%	60.23%	ATL, 1.3
NYN	TB	R.A. Dickey vs David Price	TB	60.40%	57.30%	NYN, 0.4
WAS	TOR	Stephen Strasburg vs Kyle Drabek	WAS	57.72%	60.81%	WAS, 0.6
PIT	BAL	Kevin Correia vs Brian Matusz	BAL	55.65%	62.50%	BAL, 1.3
BOS	FLA	Felix Doubront vs Ricky Nolasco	FLA	51.34%	55.62%	FLA, 0.7
DET	CHN	Rick Porcello vs Matt Garza	CHN	52.49%	50.36%	DET, 0.3
PHI	MIN	Cole Hamels vs P.J. Walters	PHI	59.92%	56.44%	MIN, 0.5
CHA	STL	Jake Peavy vs Lance Lynn	STL	53.38%	60.80%	---
OAK	COL	Tom Milone vs Josh Outman	COL	OFF	61.01%	---
SD	SEA	Jason Marquis vs Hector Noesi	SEA	58.93%	53.18%	SD, 0.8
HOU	SF	J.A. Happ vs Matt Cain	SF	67.11%	63.95%	HOU, 0.4

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

June 12th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	LAN	Jerome Williams vs Aaron Harang	LAN	TBD	52.63%	TBD
ARI	TEX	Ian Kennedy vs Colby Lewis	TEX	TBD	62.71%	TBD
CLE	CIN	Jeanmar Gomez vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	TBD	62.68%	TBD
MIL	KC	Zach Greinke vs Luis Mendoza	MIL	TBD	58.58%	TBD
NYA	ATL	C.C. Sabathia vs Mike Minor	NYA	TBD	53.27%	TBD
NYN	TB	Chris Young vs Alex Cobb	TB	TBD	58.38%	TBD
PIT	BAL	Brad Lincoln vs Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	TBD	62.80%	TBD
WAS	TOR	ChienMing Wang vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	TBD	NA	TBD
BOS	FLA	Clay Buchholz vs Mark Buehrle	FLA	TBD	58.37%	TBD
DET	CHN	Max Scherzer vs Paul Maholm	DET	TBD	56.47%	TBD
PHI	MIN	Kyle Kendrick vs Nick Blackburn	PHI	TBD	50.73%	TBD
CHA	STL	Jose Quintana vs Adam Wainwright	STL	TBD	65.65%	TBD
OAK	COL	Bartolo Colon vs Jeremy Guthrie	COL	TBD	55.79%	TBD
SD	SEA	Clayton Richard vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	53.87%	TBD
HOU	SF	Bud Norris vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	63.13%	TBD

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

June 11th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
LAA	LAN	Garrett Richards vs Chris Capuano	LAN	52.27%	48.81%	TBD
NYA	ATL	Ivan Nova vs Randall Delgado	NYA	51.81%	47.96%	TBD
WAS	TOR	Edwin Jackson vs Brandon Morrow	TOR	60.71%	57.95%	TBD
BOS	FLA	Josh Beckett vs Josh Johnson	BOS	50.74%	NA	TBD

Previous Day: No bets.
Current ROI: 3.72%

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

July 3rd Simulations

Interleague Buh-Bye ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Angels	C.Billingsley vs E.Santana	Angels	TBD	53.38%	LAA 3-1
BOS	HOU	Josh Beckett vs Jordan Lyles	BOS	TBD	65.086	TBD
PIT	WAS	Kevin Correia vs Jason Marquis	WAS	TBD	64.521	TBD
FLA	TEX	Javier Vazquez vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	76.006	TBD
MIL	MIN	Zach Greinke vs Nick Blackburn	MIN	TBD	50.285	TBD
SF	DET	Ryan Vogelsong vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	56.979	TBD
BAL	ATL	Zach Britton vs Brandon Beachy	BAL	TBD	50.603	TBD
ARI	OAK	Ian Kennedy vs Gio Gonzalez	OAK	TBD	58.057	TBD
NYA	NYN	Freddy Garcia vs R.A. Dickey	NYA	TBD	57.979	TBD
STL	TB	Kyle Lohse vs Jeremy Hellickson	TB	TBD	54.907	TBD
PHI	TOR	Cliff Lee vs Jo-Jo Reyes	PHI	TBD	60.566	TBD
KC	COL	Luke Hochevar vs Jason Hammel	COL	TBD	68.708	TBD
CHA	CHN	Gavin Floyd vs Rodrigo Lopez	CHA	TBD	52.009	TBD
CLE	CIN	Mitch Talbot vs Mike Leake	CIN	TBD	64.237	TBD
Padres	Mariners	M.Latos vs E.Bedard	Mariners	TBD	59.34%	TBD

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
Live MLB Lines

Note: I am on vacation this weekend. Simulations were ran two days in advance. Next simulation will be up Monday night (for Tuesday's games).

July 2nd Simulations

Kershaw vs Weaver, This Time It Almost Counts ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Angels	C.Kershaw vs J.Weaver	Angels	55.06%	57.85%	LAA 7-1
NYA	NYN	Bartolo Colon vs Dillon Gee	NYA	TBD	55.155	TBD
BAL	ATL	Jake Arrieta vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	56.552	TBD
ARI	OAK	Joe Saunders vs Josh Outman	OAK	TBD	58.519	TBD
MIL	MIN	Chris Narveson vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	56.149	TBD
BOS	HOU	Andrew Miller vs J.A. Happ	BOS	TBD	53.998	TBD
CLE	CIN	Fausto Carmona vs Homer Bailey	CIN	TBD	61.863	TBD
PIT	WAS	James McDonald vs John Lannan	WAS	TBD	63.172	TBD
PIT	WAS	Scott Olsen vs Livan Hernandez	WAS	TBD	68.622	TBD
SF	DET	Barry Zito vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	67.136	TBD
CHA	CHN	Phil Humber vs Matt Garza	CHN	TBD	52.367	TBD
SD	SEA	Cory Luebke vs Doug Fister	SEA	TBD	59.59	TBD
FLA	TEX	Brad Hand vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	70.943	TBD
PHI	TOR	Roy Halladay vs Carlos Villanueva	PHI	TBD	64.421	TBD
STL	TB	Kyle McClellan vs Jeff Niemann	TB	TBD	55.041	TBD
Royals	Rockies	K.Davies vs G.Reynolds	Rockies	TBD	66.12%	TBD

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
Live MLB Lines

June 26th Simulations

Kershaw vs Weaver - WOW!!! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Angels	Dodgers	J.Weaver vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	51.10%	54.90%	LAN 3-2
Mariners	Marlins	D.Fister vs A.Sanchez	Marlins	TBD	55.30%	TBD
Reds	Orioles	H.Bailey vs J.Guthrie	Orioles	TBD	50.33%	TBD
Nationals	White Sox	L.Hernandez vs P.Humber	White Sox	TBD	57.32%	TBD
Twins	Brewers	C.Pavano vs C.Narveson	Brewers	TBD	59.74%	TBD
Indians	Giants	F.Carmona vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	TBD	64.27%	TBD
Blue Jays	Cardinals	R.Romero vs K.McClellan	Cardinals	TBD	50.67%	TBD
Cubs	Royals	R.Wells vs L.Hochevar	Royals	TBD	52.21%	TBD
Rockies	Yankees	J.Nicasio vs I.Nova	Yankees	TBD	63.96%	TBD
Mets	Rangers	D.Gee vs D.Holland	Rangers	TBD	57.94%	TBD
DBacks	Tigers	J.Saunders vs B.Penny	Tigers	TBD	61.71%	TBD
Rays	Astros	J.Niemann vs J.Happ	Rays	TBD	51.31%	TBD
Braves	Padres	T.Hudson vs C.Luebke	Padres	TBD	50.36%	TBD
Athletics	Phillies	J.Outman vs R.Halladay	Phillies	TBD	67.73%	TBD
Red Sox	Pirates	A.Miller vs J.McDonald	Red Sox	TBD	57.02%	TBD

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
Live MLB Lines

June 25th Simulations

Kuroday ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Angels	Dodgers	T.Chatwood vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	56.62%	55.97%	LAA 6-1
Rockies	Yankees	A.Cook vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	67.21%	70.44%	TBD
Blue Jays	Cardinals	C.Villanueva vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	58.59%	68.30%	TBD
Mets	Rangers	J.Niese vs A.Ogando	Rangers	61.46%	61.45%	TBD
Braves	Padres	J.Jurrjens vs D.Moseley	Braves	54.44%	49.95%	TBD
Twins	Brewers	F.Liriano vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	58.25%	50.85%	TBD
Reds	Orioles	B.Arroyo vs B.Matusz	Reds	50.62%	47.35%	TBD
Red Sox	Pirates	T.Wakefield vs J.Karstens	Red Sox	56.43%	53.69%	TBD
Rays	Astros	W.Davis vs B.Norris	Astros	52.49%	53.50%	TBD
Athletics	Phillies	T.Cahill vs C.Hamels	Phillies	64.48%	66.75%	TBD
Mariners	Marlins	J.Vargas vs C.Volstad	Mariners	56.04%	50.93%	TBD
Cubs	Royals	C.Zambrano vs D.Duffy	Cubs	50.12%	55.04%	TBD
Indians	Giants	J.Masterson vs M.Cain	Giants	56.62%	55.27%	TBD
Nationals	White Sox	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Danks	White Sox	59.27%	58.25%	TBD
DBacks	Tigers	J.Collmenter vs J.Verlander	Tigers	62.89%	67.58%	TBD

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
Live MLB Lines

June 24th Simulations

LA v LA ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Angels	Dodgers	D.Haren vs R.DeLaRosa	Angels	56.04%	55.38%	LAA 8-3
Mets	Rangers	M.Pelfrey vs M.Harrison	Rangers	59.27%	62.42%	TBD
Reds	Orioles	E.Volquez vs C.Jakubauskas	Reds	53.16%	53.30%	TBD
Indians	Giants	C.Carrasco vs J.Sanchez	Giants	54.44%	55.81%	TBD
DBacks	Tigers	Z.Duke vs P.Coke	Tigers	58.25%	62.01%	TBD
Twins	Brewers	S.Baker vs R.Wolf	Brewers	57.89%	52.54%	TBD
Mariners	Marlins	F.Hernandez vs R.Nolasco	Mariners	59.60%	51.19%	TBD
Athletics	Phillies	G.Moscoso vs V.Worley	Phillies	60.24%	60.35%	TBD
Rockies	Yankees	U.Jimenez vs A.Burnett	Yankees	56.43%	58.19%	TBD
Nationals	White Sox	J.Zimmerman vs E.Jackson	White Sox	53.60%	52.08%	TBD
Red Sox	Pirates	J.Lester vs P.Maholm	Red Sox	61.32%	59.26%	TBD
Rays	Astros	J.Shields vs W.Rodriguez	Rays	55.26%	52.01%	TBD
Cubs	Royals	R.Dempster vs B.Chen	Royals	50.86%	46.63%	TBD
Braves	Padres	D.Lowe vs T.Stauffer	Padres	50.62%	60.10%	TBD
Blue Jays	Cardinals	B.Morrow vs J.Westbrook	Cardinals	50.62%	49.52%	TBD

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
ATL vs SD Under 6.5 -115, 1.6 units
CHN vs KC Over 9.0 +110, 2.1 units
TOR vs STL Under 8.0 +100, 3.3 units
BOS vs PIT Under 8.0 -120, 2.1 units
TB vs HOU Under 7.0 -110, 0.3 units
COL vs NYA Over 9.0 -110, 2.5 units
WAS vs CHA Under 8.0 -108, 0.8 units
OAK vs PHI Under 8.5 +110, 0.7 units
CLE vs SF Under 7.0 -115, 0.3 units
SEA vs FLA Over 6.5 -115, 1.0 units
ARI vs DET Under 9.0 +100, 0.5 units
CIN vs BAL Over 9.5 +110, 0.9 units
LAA vs LAN Under 7.0 -115, 1.7 units

Daily Profit: -6.5 units

MLB Scoreboard
Roster Help from MLB Depthcharts
Today's Lineups
Recent Bullpen Usage
Live MLB Lines

Dodgers vs Padres Simulation

April 8th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	T.Lilly vs C.Richard	Padres	51.22%	55.88%	LAN 4-2
Rays	Angels	K.Drabek vs E.Santana	Angels	54.95%	57.20%	TOR 3-2

Seasonal ROI: 17.83%

MLB Scoreboard
Roster help to MLB Depthcharts

April 6th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 6th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Hammel	Rockies	53.92%	55.30%	COL 7-5
Angels	Rays	D.Haren vs J.Hellickson	Angels	51.46%	53.55%	LAA 5-1

Seasonal ROI: 28.84%

MLB Scoreboard

Simulation contest over at True Blue LA

Roster help to MLB Depthcharts

April 5th, Dodgers vs Rockies Simulation

April 5th Simulations ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs J.Chacin	Rockies	50.00%	51.71%	COL 3-0
Angels	Rays	J.Weaver vs J.Niemann	Angels	50.50%	53.55%	LAA 5-3

Seasonal ROI: 32.68%

MLB Scoreboard

Simulation contest over at True Blue LA

Roster help to MLB Depthcharts

Angels vs Royals, Opening Day Simulation

Now let's look ahead for the Angels. It is March 31st, opening day and the Angels are on the road playing the Kansas City Royals. The opening day starters are likely to be Jered Weaver vs Luke Hochevar. Lineups and depth charts are taken from MLBDepthCharts.com and I know that some players (K.Morales) may not be ready by opening day. I ran the likely lineups through my baseball simulator for 100K games. Below are a detailed look at the results for us baseball starved fans.

Player	Pos		Player	Pos
Angels			Royals
Maicer Izturis	3B		Melky Cabrera	CF
Bobby Abreu	DH		Mike Aviles	3B
Torii Hunter	RF		Billy Butler	DH
Kendry Morales	1B		Kila Kaaihue	1B
Vernon Wells	LF		Alex Gordon	LF
Howie Kendrick	2B		Jeff Francoeur	RF
Erick Aybar	SS		Brayan Pena	C
Jeff Mathis	C		Chris Getz	2B
Peter Bourjos	CF		Alcides Escobar	SS

... And now the results!

Away	Home			Favorite	Win Prob	Over/Under
LAA	KC	Jered Weaver	Luke Hochevar	LAA	59.07%	8.55

No surprise as it looks like the Angels will be a solid favorite on the road in the season opener, but of course anything can happen.

Here is the hitters boxscore(s)

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Maicer Izturis	4.533	1.329	0.781	0.412	0.033	0.102	0.478	0.363	0.704	0.353	0.329
Bobby Abreu	4.231	1.264	0.755	0.329	0.024	0.156	0.547	0.592	0.928	0.385	0.352
Torii Hunter	4.343	1.246	0.775	0.303	0.007	0.16	0.606	0.359	0.826	0.352	0.323
Kendry Morales	4.208	1.265	0.751	0.338	0.017	0.159	0.657	0.386	0.681	0.372	0.328
Vernon Wells	4.182	1.202	0.68	0.319	0.025	0.178	0.68	0.304	0.682	0.359	0.308
Howie Kendrick	4.158	1.311	0.804	0.373	0.051	0.082	0.532	0.214	0.7	0.362	0.364
Erick Aybar	4.004	1.15	0.761	0.259	0.079	0.052	0.446	0.262	0.637	0.333	0.331
Jeff Mathis	3.889	0.909	0.584	0.238	0.015	0.072	0.417	0.268	0.825	0.283	0.28
Peter Bourjos	3.866	1.023	0.647	0.256	0.061	0.06	0.414	0.185	0.726	0.307	0.313
Melky Cabrera	4.263	1.14	0.698	0.327	0.057	0.059	0.358	0.305	0.756	0.319	0.314
Mike Aviles	4.237	1.244	0.831	0.297	0.021	0.095	0.435	0.21	0.727	0.334	0.336
Billy Butler	4.049	1.177	0.716	0.332	0.004	0.126	0.505	0.33	0.764	0.353	0.333
Kila Kaaihue	3.963	0.999	0.678	0.209	0.014	0.098	0.429	0.359	0.917	0.31	0.306
Alex Gordon	3.806	1.002	0.627	0.237	0.014	0.124	0.472	0.413	0.928	0.337	0.319
Jeff Francoeur	3.824	1.017	0.672	0.22	0.015	0.11	0.437	0.23	0.825	0.316	0.314
Brayan Pena	3.676	0.907	0.65	0.223	0.005	0.028	0.288	0.268	0.822	0.283	0.311
Chris Getz	3.607	0.932	0.597	0.236	0.048	0.052	0.347	0.267	0.693	0.309	0.308
Alcides Escobar	3.549	0.905	0.616	0.198	0.053	0.038	0.323	0.181	0.681	0.291	0.306

And the pitchers boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Jered Weaver	6.396	5.274	1.652	6.738	0.545	99.864	3.434
Fernando Rodney	0.481	0.36	0.181	0.49	0.03	7.691	3.657
Scott Downs	0.404	0.288	0.104	0.426	0.025	6.231	3.353
Kevin Jepsen	0.602	0.484	0.252	0.614	0.033	9.812	3.565
Jordan Walden	0.297	0.249	0.129	0.31	0.028	4.901	4.058
Hisanori Takahashi	0.433	0.316	0.159	0.477	0.043	7.003	4.141
Rich Thompson	0.216	0.134	0.079	0.251	0.023	3.496	4.47
Bobby Cassevah	0.016	0.008	0.007	0.018	0.001	0.261	4.256
Luke Hochevar	5.9	4.097	1.755	7.014	0.696	94.648	4.238
Joakim Soria	0.39	0.418	0.073	0.357	0.023	5.929	2.372
Blake Wood	0.451	0.322	0.144	0.523	0.051	7.259	4.202
Robison Tejeda	0.759	0.675	0.272	0.806	0.069	12.341	3.673
Tim Collins	0.453	0.321	0.19	0.534	0.053	7.547	4.568
Jeremy Jeffress	0.914	0.641	0.385	1.053	0.08	15.143	4.203
Jesse Chavez	0.332	0.232	0.112	0.405	0.049	5.435	4.749
Kanekoa Texeira	0.005	0.003	0.002	0.006	0	0.087	3.739