Thursday, July 19, 2012

July 19th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
ARICINJoe Saunders vs Mike LeakeCIN57.54%58.09%- - -
CHABOSJose Quintana vs Clay BuchholzBOS54.85%53.18%CHA, 0.4u
CLETBUbaldo Jimenez vs David PriceTB61.83%63.47%TB, 0.6u
HOUSDLucas Harrell vs Edinson VolquezSD59.10%56.71%- - -
SEAKCFelix Hernandez vs Wil SmithSEA55.06%53.48%- - -
SFATLMadison Bumgarner vs Tim HudsonATL52.94%52.14%- - -
NYNWASR.A. Dickey vs Gio GonzalezWAS55.65%54.31%NYN, 0.3u
LAADETJerome Williams vs Max ScherzerDET57.36%58.28%DET, 0.2u
BALMINWei-Yin Chen vs Cole DeVriesMIN50.86%53.58%MIN, 0.9u
FLACHNMark Buehrle vs Paul MaholmFLA54.65%50.29%CHN, 1.4u
NYAOAKFreddy Garcia vs A.J. GriffinNYA53.38%51.36%OAK, 0.6u

Today's Run Total Bets:
NYN vs WAS, Under 7.5 -120, 1.4 units
HOU vs SD, Over 6.5 +100, 1.0 units
NYA vs OAK, Over 7.5 -115, 2.0 units

Previous Day: +4.5 units (risked 7.1u) ML and -1.5 units (risked 1.5u) on Run Totals
Current ML ROI: 3.61%

Notes: Big win on the Tigers game yesterday with the ML bet and almost nailed the Run Total bet too but the Angels tacked on a meaningless 9th inning run for the push. Big bet today is the Yankees and Athletics going over 7.5 runs and the Cubs beating the Marlins on the ML.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

No comments: