Saturday, July 21, 2012

July 21st Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
BALCLEChris Tillman vs Zach McAllisterCLE59.27%60.0%- - -
COLSDJeff Francis vs Kip WellsCOL51.81%46.5%SD, 0.7
MILCINYovanni Gallardo vs Bronson ArroyoCIN50.86%53.0%- - -
MINKCScott Diamond vs Luis MendozaKC54.65%50.0%MIN, 0.7
SEATBJason Vargas vs Alex CobbTB58.93%61.5%TB, 0.7
TEXLAAYu Darvish vs Ervin SantanaTEX54.23%49.5%LAA, 0.7
TORBOSCarlos Villanueva vs Aaron CookBOS55.46%59.0%BOS, 0.7
LANNYNChris Capuano vs Miguel BatistaLAN53.81%51.5%- - -
CHNSTLMatt Garza vs Jake WestbrookSTL57.36%56.5%- - -
SFPHIMatt Cain vs Cole HamelsPHI56.04%54.0%- - -
ATLWASBen Sheets vs Edwin JacksonWAS52.94%56.0%WAS, 0.7
ATLWASRandall Delgado vs John LannanWAS52.49%53.5%- - -
CHADETChris Sale vs Rick PorcelloCHA53.16%50.5%DET, 0.7
FLAPITCarlos Zambrano vs A.J. BurnettPIT56.04%60.0%PIT, 0.7
HOUARIDallas Keuchel vs Wade MileyARI63.03%63.0%- - -
NYAOAKPhil Hughes vs Jarrod ParkerNYA55.06%53.05%- - -

Previous Day: -5.3 units (risked 9.3u) ML and +0.7 units (risked 2.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 2.95%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets:  -0.01%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets:  +9.07%

Notes:  Tough day yesterday mostly due to the Nationals amazing failure last night of holding a 9-0 lead in a game that Stephen Strasburg started. The failure was not his fault but it was a truly amazing comeback by the Braves. Today, I am trying something a little bit new. I am going to just make flat ML bets on games that meet a certain threshold. I may return to the Kelly Criterion for betting at a later time, but it is time to try something different that a few readers have suggested trying.  I am also rounding of the sim output to the nearest half.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

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