Friday, July 20, 2012

July 20th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALCLEMiguel Gonzalez vs Derek LoweCLE56.04%55.96%- - -
COLSDDrew Pomeranz vs Jason MarquisSD50.25%54.62%SD, 1.6u
MILCINMarco Estrada vs Homer BaileyCIN56.04%48.98%MIL, 2.4u
MINKCNick Blackburn vs Luke HochevarKC57.89%58.54%- - -
SEATBHisashi Iwakuma vs James ShieldsTB63.17%62.81%- - -
TEXLAADerek Holland vs Jered WeaverLAA58.76%57.32%TEX, 0.3u
TORBOSAaron Laffey vs Josh BeckettBOS62.76%62.38%- - -
ATLWASTommy Hanson vs Stephen StrasburgWAS58.93%63.80%WAS, 2.2u
CHADETJake Peavy vs Justin VerlanderDET62.76%59.82%CHA, 0.8u
FLAPITRicky Nolasco vs Kevin CorreiaPIT50.74%50.80%- - -
SFPHITim Lincecum vs Vance WorleyPHI55.06%56.41%PHI, 0.4u
LANNYNAaron Harang vs Johan SantanaNYN58.25%58.08%- - -
CHNSTLRyan Dempster vs Kyle LohseSTL59.27%57.63%CHN, 0.4u
HOUARIBud Norris vs Trevor CahillARI64.73%61.67%HOU, 0.8u
NYAOAKIvan Nova vs Tom MiloneNYA54.23%52.68%OAK, 0.4u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAN vs NYN, Over 7.5 -110, 0.8 units
CHN vs STL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.8 units
HOU vs ARI, Over 9.0 +105, 0.8 units

Previous Day: +1.9 units (risked 4.4u) ML and -4.4 units (risked 4.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 3.94%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets: 9.7%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets: 26.0%

Notes:  A good day on the ML bets going 5-2, but a bad day on the Run Totals going 0-3.  Going to tone down the Run Total bets until I start doing a little better there.  Today's biggest bet will be on the Brewers, who have Marco Estrada pitching.  He may only have 47 innings of starting pitching so far this year but his peripherals have been amazing.  They are sure to regress, but he is much better than his ERA and W/L 0-3 record suggest.  Other decent size bets are with the Nationals and Strasburg along with the Padres facing a shaky Colorado Rockies team.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

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