Friday, July 06, 2012

July 6th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
BALLAAMiguel Gonzalez vs C.J. WilsonLAA64.91%64.68%TBD
CINSDBronson Arroyo vs Kip WellsCIN53.70%55.79%TBD
MINTEXFrancisco Liriano vs Martin PerezTEX59.35%59.40%TBD
NYABOSHiroki Kuroda vs Josh BeckettNYA52.15%46.09%TBD
TBCLEAlex Cobb vs Justin MastersonCLE57.81%61.07%TBD
TORCHAAaron Laffey vs Jake PeavyCHA59.35%63.89%TBD
ATLPHITim Hudson vs Kyle KendrickATL53.70%51.59%TBD
COLWASDrew Pomeranz vs Stephen StrasburgWAS67.21%68.19%TBD
KCDETJonathan Sanchez vs Drew SmylyDET64.91%62.35%TBD
SFPITBarry Zito vs Erik BedardPIT58.85%55.28%TBD
CHNNYNTravis Wood vs Johan SantanaNYN61.83%63.77%TBD
MILHOUYovanni Gallardo vs J.A. HappMIL56.90%53.95%TBD
FLASTLRicky Nolasco vs Jake WestbrookSTL57.265%57.261%TBD
LANARIClayton Kershaw vs Josh CollmenterLAN51.46%47.42%TBD
SEAOAKKevin Millwood vs Tom MiloneOAK60.78%55.13%TBD

Previous Day: No Money Line Bets
Current ROI: 4.00%

Trying something new today as I have a little extra time to run simulations and study output data. I am making a few prop bets for fun with some of the house money I have earned. I have been spinning my wheels on money line bets the past month and a half so I am giving this a go. Below are my prop bets for today. (And it turned out to be a dumb thing to try!)
* 4 units (-110) on Josh Willingham to have more total bases than Nelson Cruz. (Loss, -4 units)
* 2.2 units (-115) for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks to have less than 25-1/2 combined runs+hits+errors. (Loss, -2.2 units)
* 1 unit (+150) that the Astros score first against the Brewers. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Diamondbacks score first against the Dodgers (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+140) that the Padres score first against the Reds. (Loss, -1 unit)
* 1 unit (+120) that no runs are scored in the 1st inning Twins vs Rangers. (Win, +1.2 units)

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

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