Wednesday, July 18, 2012

July 18th Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations
VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbML Bets
ARICINIan Kennedy vs Mat LatosCIN57.72%55.33%ARI, 0.7u
CHABOSPedro Hernandez vs Felix DoubrontBOS62.05%61.36%- - -
CLETBJustin Masterson vs Jeremy HellicksonCLE50.62%49.63%- - -
HOUSDWandy Rodriguez vs Clayton RichardSD56.99%54.21%- - -
PHILANCliff Lee vs Clayton KershawLAN51.22%51.31%- - -
SEAKCKevin Millwood vs Bruce ChenKC55.85%55.40%- - -
SFATLRyan Vogelsong vs Mike MinorATL52.72%54.74%ATL, 0.6u
TORNYARicky Romero vs Hiroki KurodaNYA63.17%63.02%- - -
STLMILAdam Wainwright vs Tyler ThornburgSTL57.72%54.91%MIL, 0.8u
PITCOLJames McDonald vs Jeremy GuthriePIT54.44%51.72%COL, 0.8u
TEXOAKColby Lewis vs Travis BlackleyTEX55.65%55.70%- - -
LAADETC.J. Wilson vs Doug FisterLAA50.86%44.27%DET, 2.4u
NYNWASChris Young vs Jordan ZimmermanWAS59.60%59.56%- - -
FLACHNJosh Johnson vs Jeff SamardzijaFLA55.26%50.52%CHN, 1.5u
BALMINTommy Hunter vs Francisco LirianoMIN58.07%59.09%MIN, 0.3u

Today's Run Total Bets:
LAA vs DET, Under 9 +104, 3.0 units
SEA vs KC, Under 9 +110, 1.5 units

Previous Day: +2.7 units on 9.1 units risked
Current ML ROI: 2.85%

Notes: The simulator thinks that the Vegas odds are off on the Angels vs Tigers game. The simulator thinks Fister is a stronger pitcher and Wilson a weaker pitcher than Vegas does and also believes that the game will be much lower scoring than Vegas does. The main disagreement appears to be from Fister.

Yahoo MLB Scoreboard

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