Monday, October 26, 2009

World Series, Tale Of The Tape


There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.

Pos Yankees WAR/650PA Phillies WAR/650PA
C J.Posada 5.94 C.Ruiz 3.77
1B M.Teixeira 4.78 R.Howard 4.53
2B R.Cano 4.15 C.Utley 7.29
3B A.Rodriguez 5.59 P.Feliz 1.25
SS D.Jeter 6.72 J.Rollins 2.15
LF J.Damon 2.91 R.Ibanez 4.72
CF M.Cabrera 1.93 S.Victorino 3.18
RF N.Swisher 3.96 J.Werth 4.52
DH H.Matsui 2.95 B.Francisco 2.27
Total (DH)   38.92   33.67
Total (No DH)   35.97   31.41

So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.

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