Wednesday, April 04, 2012

April 5th Simulations

Simulations will return on Monday 4/9

2012 MLB Simulations

Away Home Away SP Home SP Vegas Fave Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Sim Win Prob Sim O/U
LAN SD C.Kershaw E.Volquez LAN 58.93% 5.8 57.23% 5.59
Skinny: Two fairly weak offenses, a pitchers park and Clayton Kershaw on the mound all point to a very low scoring game. As long as Volquez is half way decent, it should be a pretty easy under on this one.
TOR CLE R.Romero J.Masterson TOR 53.16% 7.4 40.90% 7.13
Skinny: Justin Masterson is a better pitcher than given credit for here. He was basically a very similar pitcher to Ricky Romero in the 2011 season. Combine that with HFA and a decent lineup and the Indians make a nice underdog bet here.
BOS DET J.Lester J.Verlander DET 57.72% 6.9 54.78% 8.71
Skinny: Two very good pitchers meet two good very lineups. Simulator confidently says to take the over on this one.
ATL NYN T.Hanson J.Santana ATL 50.62% 6.8 47.62% 7.58
Skinny: Kind of hard to say what you are going to get from Johan Santana, but the simulator thinks that the Braves are a little overrated in this game. Take the Mets at home and the over.
PHI PIT R.Halladay E.Bedard PHI 61.32% 6.6 60.51% 6.40%
Skinny: Vegas and the simulator are in very good agreement on this game. Nothing to see here... move on.
WAS CHN S.Strasburg R.Dempster WAS 59.27% NA 54.60% 6.91
Skinny: A little bit of value on the ML with the Cubs playing at home. Cubs will need to get to the Nationals bullpen in a close game to win this one.
MIA CIN M.Buehrle J.Cueto CIN 58.07% 7.8 58.17% 7.93
Skinny: Very little value here. Best to sit this one out.

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