Monday, March 26, 2012

2012 Organizational Rankings

It is time to unviel the Dodger Sims 2012 Organizational Rankings. Here is the link to last years rankings. And below is a brief description of the methodology used. I think of these rankings as the MARCEL of rankings. To borrow from Tangotiger who puts out the MARCEL player projections as a bare minimum methodology that any other system should be able to beat, I put out my organizational rankings in the same light. Mine are automated and take in to account the bare minimum data that one should be using to rank the top MLB organizations.

1. Recent success and future forecasted success (winning games, making playoffs). This takes into consideration the number of games the team won over the past three years, along with their expected win total from Vegas for the 2012 season, plus a multiplier for number of times the team has made the playoffs over the past three years.
2. Minor league system (Baseball Prospectus)
3. Market Cap / Value of team (Forbes)
4. $Win efficiency (2012 Expected Wins above replacment per millions in projected payroll). The number of wins above 48 that the team is expected to have in the 2012 season (Vegas over/under) divided by its expected 2012 payroll.

1. 50%
2. 25%
3. 10%
4. 15%

The list will come out in three groups (1 - 10, 11 - 20 and 21 - 30). Here is the grouping of 21-30.

2012 Rank 2011 Rank Team Skinny
30 T29 Astros No recent playoff appearances, poor minor league system and little hope on the horizon.
29 T29 Orioles A very small step ahead of the Astros. Minor league system has signs of life.
28 20 Indians 2007 was last playoff appearance. Minor league system is poor, but makes decent use out of small payroll.
27 28 Pirates They don't win much, but average minor league system keeps them out of the cellar.
T25 18 Marlins Big playoff drought but team is getting better. Minor league system is very bad.
T25 23 Nationals Team is making strides. Need to start winning more to move up in rankings.
24 17 White Sox Three year playoff drought and likely worst minor league system.
23 21 Cubs The only MLB team with a downward trend in wins from 2007 through 2011 (97, 83, 75, 71).
22 22 Mariners Stuck in the mud but decent minor league system raises hopes.
21 19 Brewers Decent recent success but trending down with loss of Fielder and below average minor league depth.

Baseball Prospectus

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