Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation Results 9/7

Reds vs Dodgers - July 25th Simulation Results

Note: 1,000,000 games simulated

August 29th Simulations

Pitchers Duel At The OK Ravine ...

Dodgers Game Notes: Today's Dodgers game will likely be a very low scoring affair (Latos vs Kershaw). The Vegas Run Total line is 5-1/2 runs with -125 juice on the Over portion, which amounts to a non-juice over/under of right around 5.9 runs. The simulator has the over/under at 6.10 runs. When simulated 100K times 49.78% of the time the game went Over, which is basically a 50/50 split. Historically, by Vegas standards today's game is the 12th lowest Over/Under of the season. Amazingly this ranks tied for 4th, for the lowest Over/Under in a Kershaw pitched game (Weaver, Cain, Luebke, Chacin). The top three most likely scores have the Dodgers winning 3-2, 2-1, 1-0, with the fourth most likely score a Padres 2-1 victory.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	61.01%	59.41%	LAN 4-1
Marlins	Mets	R.Nolasco vs D.Gee	Mets	53.60%	49.61%	TBD
Marlins	Mets	A.Sanchez vs R.Dickey	Mets	55.26%	52.80%	TBD
Yankees	Orioles	F.Garcia vs J.Guthrie	Yankees	TBD	59.81%	TBD
Pirates	Astros	R.Ohlendorf vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	55.65%	56.73%	TBD
Rockies	DBacks	A.White vs D.Hudson	DBacks	60.55%	56.72%	TBD
Athletics	Indians	B.McCarthy vs D.Huff	Indians	54.44%	53.27%	TBD
Rays	Blue Jays	W.Davis vs R.Romero	Blue Jays	59.27%	57.77%	TBD
Phillies	Reds	C.Hamels vs H.Bailey	Phillies	58.25%	55.27%	TBD
Twins	White Sox	K.Slowey vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	65.22%	56.80%	TBD
Cubs	Giants	R.Wells vs T.Lincecum	Giants	69.42%	68.88%	TBD
Angels	Mariners	J.Pineiro vs B.Beavan	Angels	54.02%	50.33%	TBD
Royals	Tigers	L.Hochevar vs M.Scherzer	Tigers	61.69%	66.16%	TBD

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August 2nd Simulations

Season From Hell ...

Dodgers vs Padres
Favorite: Padres	ML: -107 +102 51.10%	Simulator: 57.39%
Vegas Over/Under: 6.0	Over -115	Under +105
Simulator Over/Under: 6.49	Over: 49.42%	Under: 50.58%	Result: UNDER
Final Score: #5 LAN 1-0

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
MIN	LAA	Brian Duensing vs Ervin Santana	LAA	TBD	54.462	TBD
FLA	NYN	Brad Hand vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	63.646	TBD
OAK	SEA	Rich Harden vs Felx Hernandez	SEA	TBD	58.765	TBD
TEX	DET	Colby Lewis vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	55.987	TBD
STL	MIL	Jaime Garcia vs Shaun Marcum	STL	TBD	58.131	TBD
BAL	KC	Alfredo Simon vs Bruce Chen	BAL	TBD	52.381	TBD
CHN	PIT	Randy Wells vs Kevin Correia	PIT	TBD	55.685	TBD
NYA	CHA	Phil Hughes vs John Danks	CHA	TBD	50.018	TBD
ARI	SF	Daniel Hudson vs Tim Lincecum	SF	TBD	60.44	TBD
CIN	HOU	Homer Bailey vs Wandy Rodriguez	CIN	TBD	50.803	TBD
CLE	BOS	David Huff vs Josh Beckett	BOS	TBD	71.642	TBD
ATL	WAS	Derek Lowe vs John Lannan	ATL	TBD	50.589	TBD
PHI	COL	Kyle Kendrick vs Aaron Cook	COL	TBD	57.47	TBD
TOR	TB	Ricky Romero vs David Price	TB	TBD	57.313	TBD

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July 8th Simulations

Latos Intolerable ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Padres	Dodgers	M.Latos vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	54.23%	57.97%	LAN 1-0
Athletics	Rangers	G.Gonzalez vs C.Wilson	Rangers	60.24%	62.52%	TEX 8-5
Rays	Yankees	J.Hellickson vs F.Garcia	Yankees	58.93%	67.35%	Ppd.
Mets	Giants	R.Dickey vs R.Vogelsong	Giants	56.43%	60.30%	NYN 5-2
Astros	Marlins	J.Lyles vs J.Vazquez	Marlins	58.07%	56.83%	FLA 6-3
Blue Jays	Indians	J.Reyes vs M.Talbot	Indians	51.57%	50.53%	TOR 11-7
Tigers	Royals	R.Porcello vs K.Davies	Tigers	53.16%	57.55%	DET 6-4
DBacks	Cardinals	I.Kennedy vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	54.02%	63.04%	ARI 7-6
Braves	Phillies	B.Beachy vs R.Halladay	Phillies	62.76%	69.37%	PHI 3-2
Reds	Brewers	M.Leake vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	56.43%	56.42%	MIL 8-7
Cubs	Pirates	R.Lopez vs J.McDonald	Pirates	56.24%	53.24%	PIT 7-4
Mariners	Angels	B.Beavan vs E.Santana	Angels	61.46%	58.53%	LAA 4-3
Twins	White Sox	N.Blackburn vs G.Floyd	White Sox	61.01%	57.68%	MIN 8-5
Orioles	Red Sox	Z.Britton vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	67.00%	59.84%	BOS 10-3
Rockies	Nationals	J.Hammel vs J.Lannan	Nationals	56.43%	50.35%	COL 3-2

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