Sunday, August 28, 2011

August 29th Simulations

Pitchers Duel At The OK Ravine ...

Dodgers Game Notes: Today's Dodgers game will likely be a very low scoring affair (Latos vs Kershaw). The Vegas Run Total line is 5-1/2 runs with -125 juice on the Over portion, which amounts to a non-juice over/under of right around 5.9 runs. The simulator has the over/under at 6.10 runs. When simulated 100K times 49.78% of the time the game went Over, which is basically a 50/50 split. Historically, by Vegas standards today's game is the 12th lowest Over/Under of the season. Amazingly this ranks tied for 4th, for the lowest Over/Under in a Kershaw pitched game (Weaver, Cain, Luebke, Chacin). The top three most likely scores have the Dodgers winning 3-2, 2-1, 1-0, with the fourth most likely score a Padres 2-1 victory.

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Padres Dodgers M.Latos vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 61.01% 59.41% LAN 4-1
Marlins Mets R.Nolasco vs D.Gee Mets 53.60% 49.61% TBD
Marlins Mets A.Sanchez vs R.Dickey Mets 55.26% 52.80% TBD
Yankees Orioles F.Garcia vs J.Guthrie Yankees TBD 59.81% TBD
Pirates Astros R.Ohlendorf vs W.Rodriguez Astros 55.65% 56.73% TBD
Rockies DBacks A.White vs D.Hudson DBacks 60.55% 56.72% TBD
Athletics Indians B.McCarthy vs D.Huff Indians 54.44% 53.27% TBD
Rays Blue Jays W.Davis vs R.Romero Blue Jays 59.27% 57.77% TBD
Phillies Reds C.Hamels vs H.Bailey Phillies 58.25% 55.27% TBD
Twins White Sox K.Slowey vs M.Buehrle White Sox 65.22% 56.80% TBD
Cubs Giants R.Wells vs T.Lincecum Giants 69.42% 68.88% TBD
Angels Mariners J.Pineiro vs B.Beavan Angels 54.02% 50.33% TBD
Royals Tigers L.Hochevar vs M.Scherzer Tigers 61.69% 66.16% TBD

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