Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Dodger underDOGS

I was recently asked how Tuesday's Dodgers game ranked as far as how big of an underdog the Dodgers were in all of their 2011 games to this date. One would think that the Cliff Lee / Ted Lilly matchup would see the Dodgers as a rather large underdog compared to all the previous games. The one thing working in the Dodgers favor is that they are playing at home. Here is the top 10 list.

Biggest Underdogs
Rank Date Teams Pitching Matchup Dodgers Win% Result
1 June 12th Dodgers vs Rockies De La Rosa vs Jimenez 34.19% LAN 10-8
2 June 6th Dodgers vs Phillies Lilly vs Lee 35.78% PHI 3-1
3 June 8th Dodgers vs Phillies Kuroda vs Hamels 36.17% PHI 2-0
4 June 7th Dodgers vs Phillies De La Rosa vs Oswalt 37.11% LAN 6-2
5 August 9th Phillies vs Dodgers Lee vs Lilly 37.52% TBD
6 April 12th Dodgers vs Giants Billingsley vs Lincecum 37.95% SF 5-4
7 August 8th Phillies vs Dodgers Halladay vs Kuroda 38.99% PHI 5-3
8 July 17th Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Lilly vs Hudson 39.84% ARI 4-1
9 May 21st Dodgers vs White Sox Garland vs Buehrle 40.49% CHA 9-2
10 June 11th Dodgers vs Rockies Lilly vs Hammel 40.82% LAN 11-7

As the chart shows, today's game ranks 5th in terms of lowest Vegas win probability for a Dodgers game this season. The game does however rank first when only taking home games into account. And last nights game (Halladay vs Kuroda) ranks second for home games.

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