I was recently asked how Tuesday's Dodgers game ranked as far as how big of an underdog the Dodgers were in all of their 2011 games to this date. One would think that the Cliff Lee / Ted Lilly matchup would see the Dodgers as a rather large underdog compared to all the previous games. The one thing working in the Dodgers favor is that they are playing at home. Here is the top 10 list.
|Rank||Date||Teams||Pitching Matchup||Dodgers Win%||Result|
|1||June 12th||Dodgers vs Rockies||De La Rosa vs Jimenez||34.19%||LAN 10-8|
|2||June 6th||Dodgers vs Phillies||Lilly vs Lee||35.78%||PHI 3-1|
|3||June 8th||Dodgers vs Phillies||Kuroda vs Hamels||36.17%||PHI 2-0|
|4||June 7th||Dodgers vs Phillies||De La Rosa vs Oswalt||37.11%||LAN 6-2|
|5||August 9th||Phillies vs Dodgers||Lee vs Lilly||37.52%||TBD|
|6||April 12th||Dodgers vs Giants||Billingsley vs Lincecum||37.95%||SF 5-4|
|7||August 8th||Phillies vs Dodgers||Halladay vs Kuroda||38.99%||PHI 5-3|
|8||July 17th||Dodgers vs Diamondbacks||Lilly vs Hudson||39.84%||ARI 4-1|
|9||May 21st||Dodgers vs White Sox||Garland vs Buehrle||40.49%||CHA 9-2|
|10||June 11th||Dodgers vs Rockies||Lilly vs Hammel||40.82%||LAN 11-7|
As the chart shows, today's game ranks 5th in terms of lowest Vegas win probability for a Dodgers game this season. The game does however rank first when only taking home games into account. And last nights game (Halladay vs Kuroda) ranks second for home games.