Friday, January 10, 2014

Best Lineup - Toronto Blue Jays

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Toronto Blue Jays.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins

See the results after the jump...

                  Best Lineups via Simulator
vs RHPvs LHP
1SS-Jose ReyesSS-Jose Reyes
2DH-Adam LindLF-Melky Cabrera
31B-Edwin EncarnacionRF-Jose Bautista
4RF-Jose Bautista1B-Edwin Encarnacion
5CF-Colby Rasmus3B-Brett Lawrie
6LF-Melky CabreraCF-Colby Rasmus
73B-Brett LawrieC-Dioner Navarro
8C-Dioner NavarroDH-Moises Sierra
92B-Ryan Goins2B-Ryan Goins

Typical lineup from MLBDepthCharts:
Reyes - Bautista - Encarnacion - Lind - Rasmus - Cabrera - Lawrie - Navarro - Goins

Skinny:  Jose Reyes fashions himself a pretty good leadoff hitter and he spearheads this potent Blue Jays lineup.  Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are the two best hitters on this team and the simulator flip flops on which of the two should hit third or fourth.  The results are pretty much the same flip flopping them between the two lineup slots.  Adam Lind, who has decent pop and gets on base at a good clip is best served hitting second, in front of the two sluggers against right handed pitching.  With Lind sitting against most lefties, the switch hitting Melky Cabrera fills the second spot in the lineup the best with Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus and Dioner Navarro in RBI roles in the bottom half of the lineup.  Ryan Goins is a black hole with the bat and has to bat 9th in the lineup.  Moises Sierra is currently the best option to platoon with Lind but his Steamer projections are not all that good and he hits eighth.

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