Sunday, January 12, 2014

Best Lineup - Cincinnati Reds

Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Cincinnati Reds.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using Steamer projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible, therefore I didn't attempt to let Joey Votto and Jay Bruce hit back to back.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins

See the results after the jump

             Best Lineups via Simulator
vs RHPvs LHP
1CF-Billy HamiltonCF-Billy Hamilton
2SS-Zack CozartSS-Zack Cozart
31B-Joey Votto2B-Brandon Phillips
42B-Brandon Phillips1B-Joey Votto
5RF-Jay Bruce3B-Todd Frazier
63B-Todd FrazierRF-Jay Bruce
7C-Devin MesoracoC-Devin Mesoraco
8LF-Ryan LudwickLF-Ryan Ludwick
9Pitchers SptPitchers Spot

Most likely lineup from MLBDepthCharts:
Hamilton - Cozart - Votto - Phillips - Bruce - Ludwick - Frazier - Mesoraco - Pitcher

Skinny:  The two headlines of the Reds lineup, Billy Hamilton and Zack Cozart stay the same vs both RHP and LHP.  Hamilton is an obvious choice at leadoff due to his speed.  There are really no other good leadoff hitters on this team.  Joey Votto bats third vs RHP with Brandon Phillips following him and the simulator likes them switching positions on the lineup vs LHP.  I didn't entertain any lineups that batted the two LH hitters (Votto, Bruce) back to back therefore Bruce bats two slots lower than Votto in both lineups.  Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Ludwick were all pretty interchangeable but the simulator preferred batting Ludwick eighth and in front of the pitcher.  Perhaps Ludwick did a slightly better job of driving in the last runners before the pitcher came up.

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