Friday, February 07, 2014

Best Lineup - Milwaukee Brewers


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Milwaukee Brewers.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  I am not a subject matter expert on every teams personnel but I try to use MLBDepthcharts as a guidance as to which players are starters and I tend to avoid hitting too many LH back to back when reasonably possible.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants

See the results after the jump


               Best Lineups Via Simulator
vs RHPvs LHP
12B-Scooter Gennett2B-Rickie Weeks
2SS-Jean SeguraSS-Jean Segura
33B-Aramis Ramirez3B-Aramis Ramirez
4RF-Ryan BraunRF-Ryan Braun
5CF-Carlos GomezCF-Carlos Gomez
61B-Juan FranciscoC-Jonathan Lucroy
7C-Jonathan LucroyLF-Khris Davis
8LF-Khris Davis1B-Mark Reynolds
9Pitchers SpotPitchers Spot

Most likely lineup from MLBDepthCharts
Segura-Gennett-Braun-Ramirez-Lucroy-Gomez-Francisco-Davis-Pitcher
(Gennett/Weeks, Francisco/Reynolds platoon)

Skinny:

Scooter Gennett:  With the platoon advantage Gennett leaps over Segura as the best option to leadoff against RHP.  The Brewers don't really have any good candidates for leadoff hitters as they don't draw too many walks and the players that do draw a moderate level of walks hit for power.

Jean Segura:  Decent speed and hits a lot of triples.  Does not draw enough walks or get on base enough to hit at the top of the lineup but should be able to leverage his speed to let Ramirez and Braun drive him in.

Aramis Ramirez: The big question is, who hits third and who hits fourth and the simulator pushes Ramirez up to third.  Ramirez clubs a lot of doubles, doesn't strike out a lot for a power hitter and though average in this category does draw quite a few walks for a Brewer.

Ryan Braun: By far the teams best hitter, Braun should easily lead this team in HRs.  At cleanup Braun is best positioned to drive in runs.

Carlos Gomez:  While Gomez can flash the speed of a top of the order hitter, he just strikes out too much and does not draw enough walks to benefit his team there.  He does have surprisingly good power but no matter who you bat fifth here you are going to have quite a drop off from Braun.

Juan Francisco:  His left handed bat nestles in to the sixth slot in the lineup one spot ahead of where MLBDC projects him to bat.  Francisco's strikeout to walk rate is ungodly poor but he does hit enough balls out of the ballpark to hit sixth here.

Jonathan Lucroy:  Lucroy is a decent hitting catcher and one of the strengths with this unspectacular lineup is that there are also no cakewalks. 

Khris Davis:  Finally we have a perfect match between MLBDC and the simulator with Davis batting eighth.  Davis likethe other 3-7 hitters has decent pop in his bat and will need to knock some balls off or over the wall to drive in the two hitting in front of him.

Rickie Weeks: Starting against LHP, Weeks slots into Gennett's spot at the top of the lineup.  While not the greatest hitter in the world, with Weeks the Brewers at least get a leadoff hitter who walks over 10% of the time.  But still, the Brewers really need a better set of table setters in order to leverage Ramirez and Braun's talent.

Mark Reynolds: Strikeout, HR, walk... those are Mark Reynolds three calling cards.  The simulator does not like him anywhere near the middle of the lineup.  Believe me, I tried him around 5th or 6th in many different combinations of lineups.  Hitting eighth he provides a big threat to clear the bases before the pitcher comes to bat.



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