It's been a busy offseason for most of the teams in the competitive NL West. Using my baseball simulator, I am having each NL West team go head to head against every other NL West team. Each team will play 1000 games, both home and away, against every other team, with their #1 starter facing the other teams #1 starter, with the same being done for the #2, #3, #4 and $5 starters. From this I will get an average winning percentage for each matchup. The totals are then added up and averaged, viewable in the table below, sorted from the top to bottom team. Rosters are still not 100% decided and I had to made some assumptions as to which 5th starter to use on some teams. The sim analysis is not taking into account, pitchers that are injury prone and won't likely make every start for their team, so there is some margin of error. During spring training I will run a more thorough sim test. This will do for now. Please leave comments if you feel like it.
Skinny: There is a nice separation between all five teams now that ZIPS projections are in for all 5 NL West teams. The Dodgers and Padres matched up evenly head to head. The Dodgers gained some separation with their better performances against the Diamondbacks and Giants. I did not use Jason Schmidt in this sim study, but I did use Randy Johnson. The Dodgers would get a nice boost from Jason Schmidt, as Loaiza would get kicked to the pen. The Diamondbacks would suffer somewhat with the loss of Randy Johnson. The Rockies come down to earth in this study and will be challenged to repeat last years exeptional season. The Giants are a mess!
Think of each sim game as:
Team A(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)
Team B(Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, Offense)