Thursday, July 31, 2008

Simulations for Friday, August 1st

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers R.Johnson vs C.Kershaw DBacks -105 -103 7.5 44.07% 8.64/3 54%/8.6 DBacks
Pirates vs Cubs J.Karstens vs J.Marquis Cubs -225 +207 9.5 61.71% 10.11/3 73%/10.8 Pirates
A's vs Red Sox J.Duchscherer vs T.Wakefield Red Sox -136 +128 8.5 59.56% 9.52/3 53%/8.0 Red Sox
Angels vs Yankees E.Santana vs S.Ponson Angels -105 -103 10.0 42.12% 9.76/1 55%/11.3 Angels
Rockies vs Marlins U.Jimenez vs C.Volstad Marlins -104 -104 9.0 56.33% 8.82/7 54%/9.6 Rockies
Tigers vs Rays Z.Miner vs S.Kazmir Rays -181 +173 8.5 64.84% 8.89/7 58%/9.6 Rays
Brewers vs Braves J.Suppan vs C.James Brewers -123 +115 9.5 56.43% 9.54/9 58%/9.8 Brewers
Reds vs Nationals H.Bailey vs O.Perez Nationals -110 +102 9.5 57.95% 8.95/7 56%/10.8 Nationals
Blue Jays vs Rangers S.Marcum vs T.Hunter Rangers -110 +102 11.0 58.43% 10.14/17 57%/10.5 Rangers
Mets vs Astros P.Martinez vs B.Backe Mets -115 +107 9.5 48.54% 9.58/10 47%/10.5 Astros
Indians vs Twins J.Sowers vs N.Blackburn Twins -160 +152 9.0 59.92% 8.00/5 65%/9.3 Twins
White Sox vs Royals J.Vazquez vs L.Hochevar White Sox -124 +116 9.0 51.43% 9.21/6 59%/10.1 White Sox
Phillies vs Cardinals C.Hamels vs K.Lohse Phillies -126 +118 8.0 48.50% 8.03/9 57%/8.5 Cardinals
Giants vs Padres T.Lincecum vs J.Banks Giants -130 +122 7.0 53.75% 6.56/5 49%/8.3 Giants
Orioles vs Mariners G.Olson vs J.Washburn Mariners -120 +112 9.0 53.54% 8.76/15 59%/10.4 Orioles
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2405 $634 $5914 18.28%
AccuScore $2728 $526 $9791 95.82%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): LAD($263), Pit($211), Bos($114), NYY($362), Fla($272), Was($292), Tex($375), Hou($152), KC($105), Stl($259)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): Ari($142), Oak($139), LAA($193), Fla($154), Det($211), Mil($158), Was($190), Tex($371), Hou($226), Min($225), CWS($204), SD($270), Sea($245)

No comments: