Monday, July 28, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, July 29th

Teams Pitching Matchup Vegas Fave Vegas ML Vegas O/U Sim Odds Sim/Actual Runs AccuScore Winner
Giants vs Dodgers M.Cain vs J.Johnson Dodgers -123 +115 7.5 49.20% 7.98/2 59%/8.2 Dodgers
Rockies vs Pirates G.Rusch vs Y.Herrera Rockies -125 +117 10.0 48.64% 9.41/10 58%/11.1 Pirates
Angels vs Red Sox J.Lackey vs C.Buchholz Red Sox -107 -101 9.0 58.65% 9.79/8 45%/10.2 Angels
Tigers vs Indians A.Galarraga vs M.Ginter Tigers -117 +109 10.0 56.19% 9.27/13 52%/9.5 Tigers
Orioles vs Yankees D.Cabrera vs D.Rasner Yankees -161 +153 10.5 60.38% 9.82/13 67%/11.0 Orioles
Rays vs Blue Jays M.Garza vs R.Halladay Blue Jays -149 +141 7.5 59.80% 9.45/3 64%/8.4 Rays
Cardinals vs Braves T.Wellemeyer vs J.Campillo Braves -116 +108 9.5 55.01% 7.82/11 57%/8.9 Cardinals
Mets vs Marlins O.Perez vs S.Olsen Mets -116 +108 9.0 48.14% 9.67/5 48%/10.1 Mets
Reds vs Astros B.Arroyo vs B.Moehler Astros -107 -101 9.5 62.11% 9.03/8 56%/9.2 Astros
Cubs vs Brewers C.Zambrano vs B.Sheets Brewers -116 +108 7.5 62.53% 9.31/8 57%/8.8 Cubs
Mariners vs Rangers C.Silva vs L.Mendoza Rangers -135 +127 11.0 62.42% 10.38/21 52%/12.1 Rangers
White Sox vs Twins C.Richard vs G.Perkins Twins -122 +114 9.5 53.00% 8.82/11 59%/10.8 Twins
DBacks vs Padres D.Davis vs C.Young Padres -125 +117 7.5 52.22% 7.04/3 58%/8.6 DBacks
Royals vs A's G.Meche vs G.Smith A's -114 +106 7.5 54.54% 8.01/7 49%/8.6 Royals
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Amount Bet Gain/Loss Day Current Total Percent Gain
Xeifrank's Simulator $2201 -$161 $7051 41.02%
AccuScore $2607 -$681 $9812 96.24%
Pinnacle Sports
I am now making ficticious bets to track how well my simulator is doing vs Vegas Odds and AccuScore. I will use the same betting method for both my simulator and AccuScore vs Vegas odds to see which method would win/lose more money. Odds will be taken from PinnacleSports.com and when not available from LV Hilton Sports Book. This method will begin keeping track on games starting 7/13/08. The Kelly Strategy will be used for all ML (Money Line) bets. Bet totals are listed below. I started each method with $5,000 units.
Today's Bets (Simulator): SF($200), Pit($244), Bos($360), Det($123), Fla($182), Hou($400), Mil($400), Tex($292)
Today's Bets (AccuScore): LAD($204), Col($137), LAA($238), NYY($346), Tor($259), Atl($178), Fla($188), Hou($223), Mil($178), Sea($176), Min($224), SD($137), KC($119)

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